HDI 1990-2018, and projections: The Chinese Question
Init
options(
digits = 2
)
library(pacman)
p_load(kirkegaard, rms, ggeffects)
theme_set(theme_bw())Data
HDI = read_csv("data/Human development index (HDI).csv", skip = 1) %>%
df_legalize_names() %>%
pivot_longer(
cols = x1990:x2018,
names_to = "year",
values_to = "HDI"
) %>%
mutate(
year = year %>% str_sub(start = 2) %>% as.numeric(),
HDI = HDI %>% as.numeric()
)## Parsed with column specification:
## cols(
## .default = col_character()
## )## See spec(...) for full column specifications.## Warning in function_list[[k]](value): NAs introduced by coercionTime series
#plot
HDI %>%
filter(
Country == c("China", "Denmark", "United States", "Japan")
) %>%
ggplot(aes(year, HDI, color = Country)) +
geom_line() +
ggtitle("China rises: HDI 1990-2018",
"HDI = Human Development Index, composite score of expected lifespan, national income per capita, years of schooling")## Warning: Removed 1 row(s) containing missing values (geom_path).
GG_save("figs/china_rise.png")## Warning: Removed 1 row(s) containing missing values (geom_path).#model countries
#same slope
all_fit_same_slope = ols(HDI ~ year + Country, data = HDI)
all_fit_same_slope## Frequencies of Missing Values Due to Each Variable
## HDI year Country
## 749 0 0
##
## Linear Regression Model
##
## ols(formula = HDI ~ year + Country, data = HDI)
##
##
## Model Likelihood Discrimination
## Ratio Test Indexes
## Obs 5399 LR chi2 23072.59 R2 0.986
## sigma0.0197 d.f. 204 R2 adj 0.986
## d.f. 5194 Pr(> chi2) 0.0000 g 0.186
##
## Residuals
##
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -0.1396942 -0.0105167 0.0006597 0.0102702 0.1025799
##
##
## Coef S.E.
## Intercept -10.3118 0.0673
## year 0.0053 0.0000
## Country=Albania 0.3016 0.0052
## Country=Algeria 0.2782 0.0052
## Country=Andorra 0.4016 0.0058
## Country=Angola 0.0693 0.0057
## Country=Antigua and Barbuda 0.3347 0.0064
## Country=Arab States 0.2376 0.0052
## Country=Argentina 0.3818 0.0052
## Country=Armenia 0.2831 0.0052
## Country=Australia 0.5068 0.0052
## Country=Austria 0.4589 0.0052
## Country=Azerbaijan 0.2815 0.0054
## Country=Bahamas 0.3696 0.0058
## Country=Bahrain 0.3940 0.0052
## Country=Bangladesh 0.1014 0.0052
## Country=Barbados 0.3806 0.0052
## Country=Belarus 0.3325 0.0054
## Country=Belgium 0.4810 0.0052
## Country=Belize 0.2678 0.0052
## Country=Benin 0.0349 0.0052
## Country=Bhutan 0.1378 0.0064
## Country=Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 0.2282 0.0052
## Country=Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.2959 0.0058
## Country=Botswana 0.2251 0.0052
## Country=Brazil 0.2978 0.0052
## Country=Brunei Darussalam 0.4169 0.0052
## Country=Bulgaria 0.3474 0.0052
## Country=Burkina Faso -0.0636 0.0058
## Country=Burundi -0.0531 0.0052
## Country=Cabo Verde 0.1903 0.0058
## Country=Cambodia 0.0762 0.0052
## Country=Cameroon 0.0788 0.0052
## Country=Canada 0.4858 0.0052
## Country=Central African Republic -0.0681 0.0052
## Country=Chad -0.0650 0.0058
## Country=Chile 0.3796 0.0052
## Country=China 0.2368 0.0052
## Country=Colombia 0.2888 0.0052
## Country=Comoros 0.0791 0.0058
## Country=Congo 0.1398 0.0052
## Country=Congo (Democratic Republic of the) -0.0173 0.0052
## Country=Costa Rica 0.3305 0.0052
## Country=Côte d'Ivoire 0.0351 0.0052
## Country=Croatia 0.3670 0.0052
## Country=Cuba 0.3221 0.0052
## Country=Cyprus 0.4200 0.0052
## Country=Czechia 0.4192 0.0052
## Country=Denmark 0.4822 0.0052
## Country=Developing Countries 0.2021 0.0052
## Country=Djibouti 0.0061 0.0054
## Country=Dominica 0.2925 0.0058
## Country=Dominican Republic 0.2723 0.0052
## Country=East Asia and the Pacific 0.2359 0.0052
## Country=Ecuador 0.2986 0.0052
## Country=Egypt 0.2306 0.0052
## Country=El Salvador 0.2201 0.0052
## Country=Equatorial Guinea 0.1464 0.0058
## Country=Eritrea -0.0090 0.0064
## Country=Estonia 0.4044 0.0052
## Country=Eswatini (Kingdom of) 0.1189 0.0052
## Country=Ethiopia -0.0355 0.0058
## Country=Europe and Central Asia 0.3024 0.0052
## Country=Fiji 0.2854 0.0052
## Country=Finland 0.4714 0.0052
## Country=France 0.4526 0.0052
## Country=Gabon 0.2500 0.0052
## Country=Gambia 0.0031 0.0052
## Country=Georgia 0.3039 0.0058
## Country=Germany 0.4863 0.0052
## Country=Ghana 0.1179 0.0052
## Country=Greece 0.4227 0.0052
## Country=Grenada 0.3120 0.0060
## Country=Guatemala 0.1691 0.0052
## Country=Guinea -0.0305 0.0052
## Country=Guinea-Bissau -0.0060 0.0064
## Country=Guyana 0.2160 0.0052
## Country=Haiti 0.0542 0.0052
## Country=High human development 0.2619 0.0052
## Country=Honduras 0.1713 0.0052
## Country=Hong Kong, China (SAR) 0.4629 0.0052
## Country=Hungary 0.3880 0.0052
## Country=Iceland 0.4780 0.0052
## Country=India 0.1358 0.0052
## Country=Indonesia 0.2259 0.0052
## Country=Iran (Islamic Republic of) 0.3057 0.0052
## Country=Iraq 0.2220 0.0052
## Country=Ireland 0.4659 0.0052
## Country=Israel 0.4632 0.0052
## Country=Italy 0.4423 0.0052
## Country=Jamaica 0.2939 0.0052
## Country=Japan 0.4698 0.0052
## Country=Jordan 0.3045 0.0052
## Country=Kazakhstan 0.3339 0.0052
## Country=Kenya 0.0973 0.0052
## Country=Kiribati 0.1694 0.0058
## Country=Korea (Republic of) 0.4381 0.0052
## Country=Kuwait 0.3752 0.0052
## Country=Kyrgyzstan 0.2204 0.0052
## Country=Lao People's Democratic Republic 0.1025 0.0052
## Country=Latin America and the Caribbean 0.3030 0.0052
## Country=Latvia 0.3685 0.0052
## Country=Least Developed Countries 0.0368 0.0052
## Country=Lebanon 0.2980 0.0064
## Country=Lesotho 0.0691 0.0052
## Country=Liberia 0.0138 0.0057
## Country=Libya 0.3218 0.0052
## Country=Liechtenstein 0.4717 0.0058
## Country=Lithuania 0.3885 0.0052
## Country=Low human development 0.0278 0.0052
## Country=Luxembourg 0.4651 0.0052
## Country=Madagascar 0.0683 0.0058
## Country=Malawi -0.0047 0.0052
## Country=Malaysia 0.3365 0.0052
## Country=Maldives 0.2347 0.0054
## Country=Mali -0.0571 0.0052
## Country=Malta 0.4149 0.0052
## Country=Marshall Islands 0.2265 0.0144
## Country=Mauritania 0.0638 0.0052
## Country=Mauritius 0.3098 0.0052
## Country=Medium human development 0.1324 0.0052
## Country=Mexico 0.3182 0.0052
## Country=Micronesia (Federated States of) 0.1594 0.0058
## Country=Moldova (Republic of) 0.2550 0.0052
## Country=Mongolia 0.2421 0.0052
## Country=Montenegro 0.3538 0.0061
## Country=Morocco 0.1697 0.0052
## Country=Mozambique -0.0646 0.0052
## Country=Myanmar 0.0673 0.0052
## Country=Namibia 0.1830 0.0052
## Country=Nepal 0.0795 0.0052
## Country=Netherlands 0.4903 0.0052
## Country=New Zealand 0.4814 0.0052
## Country=Nicaragua 0.1819 0.0052
## Country=Niger -0.1137 0.0052
## Country=Nigeria 0.0641 0.0061
## Country=North Macedonia 0.2968 0.0058
## Country=Norway 0.5196 0.0052
## Country=Oman 0.3541 0.0058
## Country=Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 0.4490 0.0052
## Country=Pakistan 0.0850 0.0052
## Country=Palau 0.3512 0.0058
## Country=Palestine, State of 0.2351 0.0063
## Country=Panama 0.3344 0.0052
## Country=Papua New Guinea 0.0667 0.0052
## Country=Paraguay 0.2631 0.0052
## Country=Peru 0.2943 0.0052
## Country=Philippines 0.2510 0.0052
## Country=Poland 0.3996 0.0052
## Country=Portugal 0.3971 0.0052
## Country=Qatar 0.4218 0.0052
## Country=Romania 0.3485 0.0052
## Country=Russian Federation 0.3554 0.0052
## Country=Rwanda -0.0162 0.0052
## Country=Saint Kitts and Nevis 0.3125 0.0064
## Country=Saint Lucia 0.2937 0.0058
## Country=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 0.2811 0.0058
## Country=Samoa 0.2619 0.0052
## Country=Sao Tome and Principe 0.1134 0.0052
## Country=Saudi Arabia 0.3772 0.0052
## Country=Senegal 0.0343 0.0052
## Country=Serbia 0.3391 0.0052
## Country=Seychelles 0.3291 0.0058
## Country=Sierra Leone -0.0564 0.0052
## Country=Singapore 0.4469 0.0052
## Country=Slovakia 0.3946 0.0052
## Country=Slovenia 0.4457 0.0052
## Country=Small Island Developing States 0.2652 0.0052
## Country=Solomon Islands 0.0978 0.0057
## Country=South Africa 0.2518 0.0052
## Country=South Asia 0.1410 0.0052
## Country=South Sudan -0.0236 0.0075
## Country=Spain 0.4377 0.0052
## Country=Sri Lanka 0.3107 0.0052
## Country=Sub-Saharan Africa 0.0633 0.0052
## Country=Sudan 0.0297 0.0052
## Country=Suriname 0.2701 0.0063
## Country=Sweden 0.4929 0.0052
## Country=Switzerland 0.4984 0.0052
## Country=Syrian Arab Republic 0.1953 0.0052
## Country=Tajikistan 0.1912 0.0052
## Country=Tanzania (United Republic of) 0.0395 0.0052
## Country=Thailand 0.2778 0.0052
## Country=Timor-Leste 0.1530 0.0058
## Country=Togo 0.0475 0.0052
## Country=Tonga 0.2819 0.0052
## Country=Trinidad and Tobago 0.3438 0.0052
## Country=Tunisia 0.2718 0.0052
## Country=Turkey 0.2918 0.0052
## Country=Turkmenistan 0.2428 0.0075
## Country=Uganda 0.0237 0.0052
## Country=Ukraine 0.3095 0.0052
## Country=United Arab Emirates 0.4017 0.0052
## Country=United Kingdom 0.4741 0.0052
## Country=United States 0.4936 0.0053
## Country=Uruguay 0.3554 0.0052
## Country=Uzbekistan 0.2318 0.0058
## Country=Vanuatu 0.1470 0.0064
## Country=Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 0.3085 0.0052
## Country=Very high human development 0.4404 0.0052
## Country=Viet Nam 0.2026 0.0052
## Country=World 0.2659 0.0052
## Country=Yemen 0.0557 0.0052
## Country=Zambia 0.0842 0.0052
## Country=Zimbabwe 0.0808 0.0052
## t Pr(>|t|)
## Intercept -153.16 <0.0001
## year 159.31 <0.0001
## Country=Albania 58.22 <0.0001
## Country=Algeria 53.72 <0.0001
## Country=Andorra 68.96 <0.0001
## Country=Angola 12.08 <0.0001
## Country=Antigua and Barbuda 52.11 <0.0001
## Country=Arab States 45.88 <0.0001
## Country=Argentina 73.72 <0.0001
## Country=Armenia 54.66 <0.0001
## Country=Australia 97.85 <0.0001
## Country=Austria 88.60 <0.0001
## Country=Azerbaijan 51.72 <0.0001
## Country=Bahamas 63.47 <0.0001
## Country=Bahrain 76.07 <0.0001
## Country=Bangladesh 19.58 <0.0001
## Country=Barbados 73.49 <0.0001
## Country=Belarus 61.09 <0.0001
## Country=Belgium 92.86 <0.0001
## Country=Belize 51.71 <0.0001
## Country=Benin 6.73 <0.0001
## Country=Bhutan 21.46 <0.0001
## Country=Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 44.05 <0.0001
## Country=Bosnia and Herzegovina 50.80 <0.0001
## Country=Botswana 43.45 <0.0001
## Country=Brazil 57.49 <0.0001
## Country=Brunei Darussalam 80.49 <0.0001
## Country=Bulgaria 67.07 <0.0001
## Country=Burkina Faso -10.92 <0.0001
## Country=Burundi -10.25 <0.0001
## Country=Cabo Verde 32.67 <0.0001
## Country=Cambodia 14.71 <0.0001
## Country=Cameroon 15.21 <0.0001
## Country=Canada 93.79 <0.0001
## Country=Central African Republic -13.16 <0.0001
## Country=Chad -11.17 <0.0001
## Country=Chile 73.29 <0.0001
## Country=China 45.71 <0.0001
## Country=Colombia 55.76 <0.0001
## Country=Comoros 13.58 <0.0001
## Country=Congo 27.00 <0.0001
## Country=Congo (Democratic Republic of the) -3.35 0.0008
## Country=Costa Rica 63.81 <0.0001
## Country=Côte d'Ivoire 6.78 <0.0001
## Country=Croatia 70.86 <0.0001
## Country=Cuba 62.19 <0.0001
## Country=Cyprus 81.10 <0.0001
## Country=Czechia 80.94 <0.0001
## Country=Denmark 93.11 <0.0001
## Country=Developing Countries 39.02 <0.0001
## Country=Djibouti 1.12 0.2609
## Country=Dominica 50.23 <0.0001
## Country=Dominican Republic 52.58 <0.0001
## Country=East Asia and the Pacific 45.55 <0.0001
## Country=Ecuador 57.64 <0.0001
## Country=Egypt 44.52 <0.0001
## Country=El Salvador 42.49 <0.0001
## Country=Equatorial Guinea 25.14 <0.0001
## Country=Eritrea -1.40 0.1629
## Country=Estonia 78.07 <0.0001
## Country=Eswatini (Kingdom of) 22.96 <0.0001
## Country=Ethiopia -6.09 <0.0001
## Country=Europe and Central Asia 58.39 <0.0001
## Country=Fiji 55.10 <0.0001
## Country=Finland 91.02 <0.0001
## Country=France 87.38 <0.0001
## Country=Gabon 48.27 <0.0001
## Country=Gambia 0.59 0.5535
## Country=Georgia 52.18 <0.0001
## Country=Germany 93.90 <0.0001
## Country=Ghana 22.76 <0.0001
## Country=Greece 81.61 <0.0001
## Country=Grenada 51.76 <0.0001
## Country=Guatemala 32.65 <0.0001
## Country=Guinea -5.89 <0.0001
## Country=Guinea-Bissau -0.94 0.3474
## Country=Guyana 41.70 <0.0001
## Country=Haiti 10.46 <0.0001
## Country=High human development 50.56 <0.0001
## Country=Honduras 33.07 <0.0001
## Country=Hong Kong, China (SAR) 89.38 <0.0001
## Country=Hungary 74.91 <0.0001
## Country=Iceland 92.29 <0.0001
## Country=India 26.22 <0.0001
## Country=Indonesia 43.61 <0.0001
## Country=Iran (Islamic Republic of) 59.03 <0.0001
## Country=Iraq 42.87 <0.0001
## Country=Ireland 89.96 <0.0001
## Country=Israel 89.43 <0.0001
## Country=Italy 85.40 <0.0001
## Country=Jamaica 56.74 <0.0001
## Country=Japan 90.70 <0.0001
## Country=Jordan 58.79 <0.0001
## Country=Kazakhstan 64.47 <0.0001
## Country=Kenya 18.78 <0.0001
## Country=Kiribati 29.10 <0.0001
## Country=Korea (Republic of) 84.59 <0.0001
## Country=Kuwait 72.44 <0.0001
## Country=Kyrgyzstan 42.56 <0.0001
## Country=Lao People's Democratic Republic 19.79 <0.0001
## Country=Latin America and the Caribbean 58.51 <0.0001
## Country=Latvia 71.15 <0.0001
## Country=Least Developed Countries 7.10 <0.0001
## Country=Lebanon 46.40 <0.0001
## Country=Lesotho 13.34 <0.0001
## Country=Liberia 2.41 0.0158
## Country=Libya 62.12 <0.0001
## Country=Liechtenstein 80.99 <0.0001
## Country=Lithuania 75.01 <0.0001
## Country=Low human development 5.36 <0.0001
## Country=Luxembourg 89.81 <0.0001
## Country=Madagascar 11.73 <0.0001
## Country=Malawi -0.91 0.3618
## Country=Malaysia 64.97 <0.0001
## Country=Maldives 43.12 <0.0001
## Country=Mali -11.03 <0.0001
## Country=Malta 80.10 <0.0001
## Country=Marshall Islands 15.70 <0.0001
## Country=Mauritania 12.32 <0.0001
## Country=Mauritius 59.82 <0.0001
## Country=Medium human development 25.57 <0.0001
## Country=Mexico 61.44 <0.0001
## Country=Micronesia (Federated States of) 27.37 <0.0001
## Country=Moldova (Republic of) 49.24 <0.0001
## Country=Mongolia 46.75 <0.0001
## Country=Montenegro 57.57 <0.0001
## Country=Morocco 32.76 <0.0001
## Country=Mozambique -12.46 <0.0001
## Country=Myanmar 13.00 <0.0001
## Country=Namibia 35.33 <0.0001
## Country=Nepal 15.35 <0.0001
## Country=Netherlands 94.66 <0.0001
## Country=New Zealand 92.95 <0.0001
## Country=Nicaragua 35.13 <0.0001
## Country=Niger -21.94 <0.0001
## Country=Nigeria 10.44 <0.0001
## Country=North Macedonia 50.96 <0.0001
## Country=Norway 100.32 <0.0001
## Country=Oman 60.80 <0.0001
## Country=Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 86.69 <0.0001
## Country=Pakistan 16.41 <0.0001
## Country=Palau 60.30 <0.0001
## Country=Palestine, State of 37.46 <0.0001
## Country=Panama 64.56 <0.0001
## Country=Papua New Guinea 12.88 <0.0001
## Country=Paraguay 50.80 <0.0001
## Country=Peru 56.82 <0.0001
## Country=Philippines 48.46 <0.0001
## Country=Poland 77.16 <0.0001
## Country=Portugal 76.67 <0.0001
## Country=Qatar 81.43 <0.0001
## Country=Romania 67.29 <0.0001
## Country=Russian Federation 68.61 <0.0001
## Country=Rwanda -3.12 0.0018
## Country=Saint Kitts and Nevis 48.66 <0.0001
## Country=Saint Lucia 50.43 <0.0001
## Country=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 48.27 <0.0001
## Country=Samoa 50.57 <0.0001
## Country=Sao Tome and Principe 21.90 <0.0001
## Country=Saudi Arabia 72.82 <0.0001
## Country=Senegal 6.63 <0.0001
## Country=Serbia 65.47 <0.0001
## Country=Seychelles 56.52 <0.0001
## Country=Sierra Leone -10.89 <0.0001
## Country=Singapore 86.28 <0.0001
## Country=Slovakia 76.19 <0.0001
## Country=Slovenia 86.04 <0.0001
## Country=Small Island Developing States 51.20 <0.0001
## Country=Solomon Islands 17.05 <0.0001
## Country=South Africa 48.62 <0.0001
## Country=South Asia 27.22 <0.0001
## Country=South Sudan -3.14 0.0017
## Country=Spain 84.51 <0.0001
## Country=Sri Lanka 59.99 <0.0001
## Country=Sub-Saharan Africa 12.22 <0.0001
## Country=Sudan 5.74 <0.0001
## Country=Suriname 43.03 <0.0001
## Country=Sweden 95.16 <0.0001
## Country=Switzerland 96.22 <0.0001
## Country=Syrian Arab Republic 37.72 <0.0001
## Country=Tajikistan 36.92 <0.0001
## Country=Tanzania (United Republic of) 7.63 <0.0001
## Country=Thailand 53.64 <0.0001
## Country=Timor-Leste 26.28 <0.0001
## Country=Togo 9.17 <0.0001
## Country=Tonga 54.42 <0.0001
## Country=Trinidad and Tobago 66.38 <0.0001
## Country=Tunisia 52.48 <0.0001
## Country=Turkey 56.33 <0.0001
## Country=Turkmenistan 32.23 <0.0001
## Country=Uganda 4.58 <0.0001
## Country=Ukraine 59.75 <0.0001
## Country=United Arab Emirates 77.56 <0.0001
## Country=United Kingdom 91.53 <0.0001
## Country=United States 93.59 <0.0001
## Country=Uruguay 68.61 <0.0001
## Country=Uzbekistan 39.81 <0.0001
## Country=Vanuatu 22.89 <0.0001
## Country=Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 59.56 <0.0001
## Country=Very high human development 85.04 <0.0001
## Country=Viet Nam 39.11 <0.0001
## Country=World 51.33 <0.0001
## Country=Yemen 10.76 <0.0001
## Country=Zambia 16.26 <0.0001
## Country=Zimbabwe 15.59 <0.0001
## all_fit_diff_slope = ols(HDI ~ year * Country, data = HDI)
all_fit_diff_slope## Frequencies of Missing Values Due to Each Variable
## HDI year Country
## 749 0 0
##
## Linear Regression Model
##
## ols(formula = HDI ~ year * Country, data = HDI)
##
##
## Model Likelihood Discrimination
## Ratio Test Indexes
## Obs 5399 LR chi2 28616.63 R2 0.995
## sigma0.0120 d.f. 407 R2 adj 0.995
## d.f. 4991 Pr(> chi2) 0.0000 g 0.187
##
## Residuals
##
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -7.514e-02 -5.201e-03 5.961e-05 5.334e-03 7.357e-02
##
##
## Coef
## Intercept -16.1233
## year 0.0082
## Country=Albania 2.4220
## Country=Algeria 2.2526
## Country=Andorra 7.9412
## Country=Angola -5.2142
## Country=Antigua and Barbuda 18.0990
## Country=Arab States 5.3138
## Country=Argentina 7.3662
## Country=Armenia 3.7491
## Country=Australia 11.6710
## Country=Austria 7.8836
## Country=Azerbaijan 2.6463
## Country=Bahamas 15.2050
## Country=Bahrain 11.5631
## Country=Bangladesh 0.5437
## Country=Barbados 10.2723
## Country=Belarus 0.2581
## Country=Belgium 9.7862
## Country=Belize 8.3490
## Country=Benin 3.3153
## Country=Bhutan 0.3114
## Country=Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 5.8127
## Country=Bosnia and Herzegovina 5.3647
## Country=Botswana 4.0040
## Country=Brazil 6.3107
## Country=Brunei Darussalam 11.3204
## Country=Bulgaria 6.6763
## Country=Burkina Faso -1.2367
## Country=Burundi 3.7841
## Country=Cabo Verde 6.5632
## Country=Cambodia -0.2308
## Country=Cameroon 6.6308
## Country=Canada 11.5857
## Country=Central African Republic 10.6439
## Country=Chad 3.0971
## Country=Chile 5.9869
## Country=China -2.7149
## Country=Colombia 4.6719
## Country=Comoros 6.3392
## Country=Congo 9.5359
## Country=Congo (Democratic Republic of the) 7.9434
## Country=Costa Rica 6.8598
## Country=Côte d'Ivoire 7.6671
## Country=Croatia 3.3138
## Country=Cuba 6.1406
## Country=Cyprus 7.3639
## Country=Czechia 4.0629
## Country=Denmark 6.9701
## Country=Developing Countries 3.6375
## Country=Djibouti 2.2278
## Country=Dominica 12.6114
## Country=Dominican Republic 6.2004
## Country=East Asia and the Pacific -0.1017
## Country=Ecuador 7.7311
## Country=Egypt 5.3669
## Country=El Salvador 6.8787
## Country=Equatorial Guinea 8.9301
## Country=Eritrea 15.1646
## Country=Estonia 3.4222
## Country=Eswatini (Kingdom of) 12.4302
## Country=Ethiopia -5.5473
## Country=Europe and Central Asia 5.5918
## Country=Fiji 11.4278
## Country=Finland 6.3206
## Country=France 9.7914
## Country=Gabon 11.1279
## Country=Gambia 6.3152
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## year * Country=Iceland 0.0004
## year * Country=India 0.0004
## year * Country=Indonesia 0.0004
## year * Country=Iran (Islamic Republic of) 0.0004
## year * Country=Iraq 0.0004
## year * Country=Ireland 0.0004
## year * Country=Israel 0.0004
## year * Country=Italy 0.0004
## year * Country=Jamaica 0.0004
## year * Country=Japan 0.0004
## year * Country=Jordan 0.0004
## year * Country=Kazakhstan 0.0004
## year * Country=Kenya 0.0004
## year * Country=Kiribati 0.0006
## year * Country=Korea (Republic of) 0.0004
## year * Country=Kuwait 0.0004
## year * Country=Kyrgyzstan 0.0004
## year * Country=Lao People's Democratic Republic 0.0004
## year * Country=Latin America and the Caribbean 0.0004
## year * Country=Latvia 0.0004
## year * Country=Least Developed Countries 0.0004
## year * Country=Lebanon 0.0008
## year * Country=Lesotho 0.0004
## year * Country=Liberia 0.0005
## year * Country=Libya 0.0004
## year * Country=Liechtenstein 0.0006
## year * Country=Lithuania 0.0004
## year * Country=Low human development 0.0004
## year * Country=Luxembourg 0.0004
## year * Country=Madagascar 0.0006
## year * Country=Malawi 0.0004
## year * Country=Malaysia 0.0004
## year * Country=Maldives 0.0004
## year * Country=Mali 0.0004
## year * Country=Malta 0.0004
## year * Country=Marshall Islands 0.0170
## year * Country=Mauritania 0.0004
## year * Country=Mauritius 0.0004
## year * Country=Medium human development 0.0004
## year * Country=Mexico 0.0004
## year * Country=Micronesia (Federated States of) 0.0006
## year * Country=Moldova (Republic of) 0.0004
## year * Country=Mongolia 0.0004
## year * Country=Montenegro 0.0007
## year * Country=Morocco 0.0004
## year * Country=Mozambique 0.0004
## year * Country=Myanmar 0.0004
## year * Country=Namibia 0.0004
## year * Country=Nepal 0.0004
## year * Country=Netherlands 0.0004
## year * Country=New Zealand 0.0004
## year * Country=Nicaragua 0.0004
## year * Country=Niger 0.0004
## year * Country=Nigeria 0.0007
## year * Country=North Macedonia 0.0006
## year * Country=Norway 0.0004
## year * Country=Oman 0.0006
## year * Country=Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 0.0004
## year * Country=Pakistan 0.0004
## year * Country=Palau 0.0006
## year * Country=Palestine, State of 0.0008
## year * Country=Panama 0.0004
## year * Country=Papua New Guinea 0.0004
## year * Country=Paraguay 0.0004
## year * Country=Peru 0.0004
## year * Country=Philippines 0.0004
## year * Country=Poland 0.0004
## year * Country=Portugal 0.0004
## year * Country=Qatar 0.0004
## year * Country=Romania 0.0004
## year * Country=Russian Federation 0.0004
## year * Country=Rwanda 0.0004
## year * Country=Saint Kitts and Nevis 0.0008
## year * Country=Saint Lucia 0.0006
## year * Country=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 0.0006
## year * Country=Samoa 0.0004
## year * Country=Sao Tome and Principe 0.0004
## year * Country=Saudi Arabia 0.0004
## year * Country=Senegal 0.0004
## year * Country=Serbia 0.0004
## year * Country=Seychelles 0.0006
## year * Country=Sierra Leone 0.0004
## year * Country=Singapore 0.0004
## year * Country=Slovakia 0.0004
## year * Country=Slovenia 0.0004
## year * Country=Small Island Developing States 0.0004
## year * Country=Solomon Islands 0.0005
## year * Country=South Africa 0.0004
## year * Country=South Asia 0.0004
## year * Country=South Sudan 0.0016
## year * Country=Spain 0.0004
## year * Country=Sri Lanka 0.0004
## year * Country=Sub-Saharan Africa 0.0004
## year * Country=Sudan 0.0004
## year * Country=Suriname 0.0008
## year * Country=Sweden 0.0004
## year * Country=Switzerland 0.0004
## year * Country=Syrian Arab Republic 0.0004
## year * Country=Tajikistan 0.0004
## year * Country=Tanzania (United Republic of) 0.0004
## year * Country=Thailand 0.0004
## year * Country=Timor-Leste 0.0006
## year * Country=Togo 0.0004
## year * Country=Tonga 0.0004
## year * Country=Trinidad and Tobago 0.0004
## year * Country=Tunisia 0.0004
## year * Country=Turkey 0.0004
## year * Country=Turkmenistan 0.0016
## year * Country=Uganda 0.0004
## year * Country=Ukraine 0.0004
## year * Country=United Arab Emirates 0.0004
## year * Country=United Kingdom 0.0004
## year * Country=United States 0.0004
## year * Country=Uruguay 0.0004
## year * Country=Uzbekistan 0.0006
## year * Country=Vanuatu 0.0008
## year * Country=Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 0.0004
## year * Country=Very high human development 0.0004
## year * Country=Viet Nam 0.0004
## year * Country=World 0.0004
## year * Country=Yemen 0.0004
## year * Country=Zambia 0.0004
## year * Country=Zimbabwe 0.0004
## t
## Intercept -30.11
## year 30.85
## Country=Albania 3.20
## Country=Algeria 2.97
## Country=Andorra 6.93
## Country=Angola -4.83
## Country=Antigua and Barbuda 10.69
## Country=Arab States 7.02
## Country=Argentina 9.73
## Country=Armenia 4.95
## Country=Australia 15.41
## Country=Austria 10.41
## Country=Azerbaijan 2.97
## Country=Bahamas 13.27
## Country=Bahrain 15.27
## Country=Bangladesh 0.72
## Country=Barbados 13.56
## Country=Belarus 0.29
## Country=Belgium 12.92
## Country=Belize 11.02
## Country=Benin 4.38
## Country=Bhutan 0.18
## Country=Bolivia (Plurinational State of) 7.67
## Country=Bosnia and Herzegovina 4.68
## Country=Botswana 5.29
## Country=Brazil 8.33
## Country=Brunei Darussalam 14.95
## Country=Bulgaria 8.82
## Country=Burkina Faso -1.08
## Country=Burundi 5.00
## Country=Cabo Verde 5.73
## Country=Cambodia -0.30
## Country=Cameroon 8.75
## Country=Canada 15.30
## Country=Central African Republic 14.05
## Country=Chad 2.70
## Country=Chile 7.90
## Country=China -3.58
## Country=Colombia 6.17
## Country=Comoros 5.53
## Country=Congo 12.59
## Country=Congo (Democratic Republic of the) 10.49
## Country=Costa Rica 9.06
## Country=Côte d'Ivoire 10.12
## Country=Croatia 4.38
## Country=Cuba 8.11
## Country=Cyprus 9.72
## Country=Czechia 5.36
## Country=Denmark 9.20
## Country=Developing Countries 4.80
## Country=Djibouti 2.50
## Country=Dominica 11.00
## Country=Dominican Republic 8.19
## Country=East Asia and the Pacific -0.13
## Country=Ecuador 10.21
## Country=Egypt 7.09
## Country=El Salvador 9.08
## Country=Equatorial Guinea 7.79
## Country=Eritrea 8.96
## Country=Estonia 4.52
## Country=Eswatini (Kingdom of) 16.41
## Country=Ethiopia -4.84
## Country=Europe and Central Asia 7.38
## Country=Fiji 15.09
## Country=Finland 8.35
## Country=France 12.93
## Country=Gabon 14.69
## Country=Gambia 8.34
## Country=Georgia 2.98
## Country=Germany 8.86
## Country=Ghana 7.39
## Country=Greece 9.73
## Country=Grenada 8.50
## Country=Guatemala 5.09
## Country=Guinea 2.78
## Country=Guinea-Bissau 3.34
## Country=Guyana 10.08
## Country=Haiti 13.09
## Country=High human development 3.73
## Country=Honduras 10.71
## Country=Hong Kong, China (SAR) 6.43
## Country=Hungary 8.30
## Country=Iceland 10.17
## Country=India 0.79
## Country=Indonesia 4.31
## Country=Iran (Islamic Republic of) 1.06
## Country=Iraq 9.00
## Country=Ireland 5.66
## Country=Israel 11.93
## Country=Italy 11.46
## Country=Jamaica 13.59
## Country=Japan 13.35
## Country=Jordan 13.86
## Country=Kazakhstan 6.52
## Country=Kenya 8.67
## Country=Kiribati 9.59
## Country=Korea (Republic of) 5.34
## Country=Kuwait 12.16
## Country=Kyrgyzstan 13.03
## Country=Lao People's Democratic Republic 1.26
## Country=Latin America and the Caribbean 9.36
## Country=Latvia 2.14
## Country=Least Developed Countries 2.95
## Country=Lebanon 10.34
## Country=Lesotho 19.69
## Country=Liberia 7.67
## Country=Libya 20.45
## Country=Liechtenstein 9.57
## Country=Lithuania 5.15
## Country=Low human development 4.55
## Country=Luxembourg 11.48
## Country=Madagascar 7.90
## Country=Malawi 4.86
## Country=Malaysia 7.27
## Country=Maldives 2.78
## Country=Mali 1.28
## Country=Malta 8.30
## Country=Marshall Islands 0.37
## Country=Mauritania 8.30
## Country=Mauritius 4.48
## Country=Medium human development 2.32
## Country=Mexico 10.96
## Country=Micronesia (Federated States of) 7.76
## Country=Moldova (Republic of) 11.51
## Country=Mongolia 1.38
## Country=Montenegro 5.07
## Country=Morocco -0.03
## Country=Mozambique -2.03
## Country=Myanmar -1.17
## Country=Namibia 15.77
## Country=Nepal 2.18
## Country=Netherlands 12.71
## Country=New Zealand 13.35
## Country=Nicaragua 6.19
## Country=Niger 5.44
## Country=Nigeria 3.74
## Country=North Macedonia 5.39
## Country=Norway 13.21
## Country=Oman 1.63
## Country=Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development 11.75
## Country=Pakistan 5.86
## Country=Palau 6.59
## Country=Palestine, State of 6.04
## Country=Panama 9.67
## Country=Papua New Guinea 5.68
## Country=Paraguay 9.44
## Country=Peru 8.12
## Country=Philippines 10.31
## Country=Poland 6.80
## Country=Portugal 10.44
## Country=Qatar 13.26
## Country=Romania 7.02
## Country=Russian Federation 10.22
## Country=Rwanda -14.05
## Country=Saint Kitts and Nevis 4.12
## Country=Saint Lucia 8.87
## Country=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines 9.87
## Country=Samoa 11.94
## Country=Sao Tome and Principe 5.06
## Country=Saudi Arabia 5.94
## Country=Senegal 6.47
## Country=Serbia 11.16
## Country=Seychelles 3.89
## Country=Sierra Leone 2.24
## Country=Singapore 0.72
## Country=Slovakia 9.12
## Country=Slovenia 9.83
## Country=Small Island Developing States 9.02
## Country=Solomon Islands 6.85
## Country=South Africa 15.89
## Country=South Asia 2.25
## Country=South Sudan 7.18
## Country=Spain 10.15
## Country=Sri Lanka 6.27
## Country=Sub-Saharan Africa 6.88
## Country=Sudan 4.41
## Country=Suriname 5.27
## Country=Sweden 12.37
## Country=Switzerland 10.59
## Country=Syrian Arab Republic 21.40
## Country=Tajikistan 10.70
## Country=Tanzania (United Republic of) 4.24
## Country=Thailand 3.79
## Country=Timor-Leste 0.55
## Country=Togo 10.74
## Country=Tonga 16.16
## Country=Trinidad and Tobago 7.88
## Country=Tunisia 5.25
## Country=Turkey -1.23
## Country=Turkmenistan 2.31
## Country=Uganda -1.89
## Country=Ukraine 13.88
## Country=United Arab Emirates 9.55
## Country=United Kingdom 10.25
## Country=United States 16.25
## Country=Uruguay 10.96
## Country=Uzbekistan 3.04
## Country=Vanuatu 7.76
## Country=Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) 9.29
## Country=Very high human development 10.98
## Country=Viet Nam 1.07
## Country=World 8.48
## Country=Yemen 10.72
## Country=Zambia 3.09
## Country=Zimbabwe 16.01
## year * Country=Albania -2.80
## year * Country=Algeria -2.61
## year * Country=Andorra -6.59
## year * Country=Angola 4.88
## year * Country=Antigua and Barbuda -10.50
## year * Country=Arab States -6.70
## year * Country=Argentina -9.22
## year * Country=Armenia -4.58
## year * Country=Australia -14.74
## year * Country=Austria -9.80
## year * Country=Azerbaijan -2.66
## year * Country=Bahamas -12.95
## year * Country=Bahrain -14.75
## year * Country=Bangladesh -0.58
## year * Country=Barbados -13.06
## year * Country=Belarus 0.08
## year * Country=Belgium -12.29
## year * Country=Belize -10.67
## year * Country=Benin -4.33
## year * Country=Bhutan -0.12
## year * Country=Bolivia (Plurinational State of) -7.37
## year * Country=Bosnia and Herzegovina -4.43
## year * Country=Botswana -4.99
## year * Country=Brazil -7.94
## year * Country=Brunei Darussalam -14.40
## year * Country=Bulgaria -8.36
## year * Country=Burkina Faso 1.01
## year * Country=Burundi -5.07
## year * Country=Cabo Verde -5.57
## year * Country=Cambodia 0.41
## year * Country=Cameroon -8.65
## year * Country=Canada -14.66
## year * Country=Central African Republic -14.14
## year * Country=Chad -2.77
## year * Country=Chile -7.40
## year * Country=China 3.90
## year * Country=Colombia -5.79
## year * Country=Comoros -5.47
## year * Country=Congo -12.41
## year * Country=Congo (Democratic Republic of the) -10.51
## year * Country=Costa Rica -8.62
## year * Country=Côte d'Ivoire -10.08
## year * Country=Croatia -3.89
## year * Country=Cuba -7.68
## year * Country=Cyprus -9.17
## year * Country=Czechia -4.81
## year * Country=Denmark -8.57
## year * Country=Developing Countries -4.54
## year * Country=Djibouti -2.50
## year * Country=Dominica -10.76
## year * Country=Dominican Republic -7.83
## year * Country=East Asia and the Pacific 0.45
## year * Country=Ecuador -9.81
## year * Country=Egypt -6.78
## year * Country=El Salvador -8.79
## year * Country=Equatorial Guinea -7.67
## year * Country=Eritrea -8.97
## year * Country=Estonia -3.98
## year * Country=Eswatini (Kingdom of) -16.26
## year * Country=Ethiopia 4.79
## year * Country=Europe and Central Asia -6.98
## year * Country=Fiji -14.71
## year * Country=Finland -7.72
## year * Country=France -12.33
## year * Country=Gabon -14.36
## year * Country=Gambia -8.33
## year * Country=Georgia -2.72
## year * Country=Germany -8.21
## year * Country=Ghana -7.23
## year * Country=Greece -9.17
## year * Country=Grenada -8.27
## year * Country=Guatemala -4.87
## year * Country=Guinea -2.82
## year * Country=Guinea-Bissau -3.36
## year * Country=Guyana -9.79
## year * Country=Haiti -13.01
## year * Country=High human development -3.38
## year * Country=Honduras -10.49
## year * Country=Hong Kong, China (SAR) -5.82
## year * Country=Hungary -7.79
## year * Country=Iceland -9.54
## year * Country=India -0.61
## year * Country=Indonesia -4.01
## year * Country=Iran (Islamic Republic of) -0.65
## year * Country=Iraq -8.70
## year * Country=Ireland -5.04
## year * Country=Israel -11.32
## year * Country=Italy -10.88
## year * Country=Jamaica -13.20
## year * Country=Japan -12.73
## year * Country=Jordan -13.46
## year * Country=Kazakhstan -6.08
## year * Country=Kenya -8.55
## year * Country=Kiribati -9.45
## year * Country=Korea (Republic of) -4.76
## year * Country=Kuwait -11.66
## year * Country=Kyrgyzstan -12.74
## year * Country=Lao People's Democratic Republic -1.13
## year * Country=Latin America and the Caribbean -8.96
## year * Country=Latvia -1.66
## year * Country=Least Developed Countries -2.90
## year * Country=Lebanon -10.17
## year * Country=Lesotho -19.60
## year * Country=Liberia -7.67
## year * Country=Libya -20.02
## year * Country=Liechtenstein -9.16
## year * Country=Lithuania -4.63
## year * Country=Low human development -4.52
## year * Country=Luxembourg -10.86
## year * Country=Madagascar -7.85
## year * Country=Malawi -4.87
## year * Country=Malaysia -6.83
## year * Country=Maldives -2.53
## year * Country=Mali -1.36
## year * Country=Malta -7.76
## year * Country=Marshall Islands -0.37
## year * Country=Mauritania -8.21
## year * Country=Mauritius -4.07
## year * Country=Medium human development -2.14
## year * Country=Mexico -10.54
## year * Country=Micronesia (Federated States of) -7.63
## year * Country=Moldova (Republic of) -11.17
## year * Country=Mongolia -1.06
## year * Country=Montenegro -4.84
## year * Country=Morocco 0.26
## year * Country=Mozambique 1.95
## year * Country=Myanmar 1.26
## year * Country=Namibia -15.52
## year * Country=Nepal -2.08
## year * Country=Netherlands -12.06
## year * Country=New Zealand -12.71
## year * Country=Nicaragua -5.95
## year * Country=Niger -5.59
## year * Country=Nigeria -3.71
## year * Country=North Macedonia -5.14
## year * Country=Norway -12.52
## year * Country=Oman -1.33
## year * Country=Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development -11.15
## year * Country=Pakistan -5.75
## year * Country=Palau -6.29
## year * Country=Palestine, State of -5.90
## year * Country=Panama -9.23
## year * Country=Papua New Guinea -5.59
## year * Country=Paraguay -9.09
## year * Country=Peru -7.73
## year * Country=Philippines -9.98
## year * Country=Poland -6.27
## year * Country=Portugal -9.92
## year * Country=Qatar -12.70
## year * Country=Romania -6.56
## year * Country=Russian Federation -9.75
## year * Country=Rwanda 14.03
## year * Country=Saint Kitts and Nevis -3.95
## year * Country=Saint Lucia -8.63
## year * Country=Saint Vincent and the Grenadines -9.63
## year * Country=Samoa -11.60
## year * Country=Sao Tome and Principe -4.91
## year * Country=Saudi Arabia -5.44
## year * Country=Senegal -6.43
## year * Country=Serbia -10.71
## year * Country=Seychelles -3.61
## year * Country=Sierra Leone -2.31
## year * Country=Singapore -0.13
## year * Country=Slovakia -8.60
## year * Country=Slovenia -9.24
## year * Country=Small Island Developing States -8.67
## year * Country=Solomon Islands -6.77
## year * Country=South Africa -15.55
## year * Country=South Asia -2.06
## year * Country=South Sudan -7.19
## year * Country=Spain -9.58
## year * Country=Sri Lanka -5.86
## year * Country=Sub-Saharan Africa -6.79
## year * Country=Sudan -4.37
## year * Country=Suriname -5.10
## year * Country=Sweden -11.72
## year * Country=Switzerland -9.93
## year * Country=Syrian Arab Republic -21.14
## year * Country=Tajikistan -10.45
## year * Country=Tanzania (United Republic of) -4.19
## year * Country=Thailand -3.42
## year * Country=Timor-Leste -0.43
## year * Country=Togo -10.68
## year * Country=Tonga -15.79
## year * Country=Trinidad and Tobago -7.43
## year * Country=Tunisia -4.89
## year * Country=Turkey 1.61
## year * Country=Turkmenistan -2.25
## year * Country=Uganda 1.92
## year * Country=Ukraine -13.47
## year * Country=United Arab Emirates -9.02
## year * Country=United Kingdom -9.62
## year * Country=United States -15.62
## year * Country=Uruguay -10.49
## year * Country=Uzbekistan -2.84
## year * Country=Vanuatu -7.68
## year * Country=Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) -8.89
## year * Country=Very high human development -10.40
## year * Country=Viet Nam -0.80
## year * Country=World -8.13
## year * Country=Yemen -10.65
## year * Country=Zambia -2.97
## year * Country=Zimbabwe -15.91
## Pr(>|t|)
## Intercept <0.0001
## year <0.0001
## Country=Albania 0.0014
## Country=Algeria 0.0030
## Country=Andorra <0.0001
## Country=Angola <0.0001
## Country=Antigua and Barbuda <0.0001
## Country=Arab States <0.0001
## Country=Argentina <0.0001
## Country=Armenia <0.0001
## Country=Australia <0.0001
## Country=Austria <0.0001
## Country=Azerbaijan 0.0030
## Country=Bahamas <0.0001
## Country=Bahrain <0.0001
## Country=Bangladesh 0.4729
## Country=Barbados <0.0001
## Country=Belarus 0.7722
## Country=Belgium <0.0001
## Country=Belize <0.0001
## Country=Benin <0.0001
## Country=Bhutan 0.8541
## Country=Bolivia (Plurinational State of) <0.0001
## Country=Bosnia and Herzegovina <0.0001
## Country=Botswana <0.0001
## Country=Brazil <0.0001
## Country=Brunei Darussalam <0.0001
## Country=Bulgaria <0.0001
## Country=Burkina Faso 0.2806
## Country=Burundi <0.0001
## Country=Cabo Verde <0.0001
## Country=Cambodia 0.7606
## Country=Cameroon <0.0001
## Country=Canada <0.0001
## Country=Central African Republic <0.0001
## Country=Chad 0.0069
## Country=Chile <0.0001
## Country=China 0.0003
## Country=Colombia <0.0001
## Country=Comoros <0.0001
## Country=Congo <0.0001
## Country=Congo (Democratic Republic of the) <0.0001
## Country=Costa Rica <0.0001
## Country=Côte d'Ivoire <0.0001
## Country=Croatia <0.0001
## Country=Cuba <0.0001
## Country=Cyprus <0.0001
## Country=Czechia <0.0001
## Country=Denmark <0.0001
## Country=Developing Countries <0.0001
## Country=Djibouti 0.0125
## Country=Dominica <0.0001
## Country=Dominican Republic <0.0001
## Country=East Asia and the Pacific 0.8932
## Country=Ecuador <0.0001
## Country=Egypt <0.0001
## Country=El Salvador <0.0001
## Country=Equatorial Guinea <0.0001
## Country=Eritrea <0.0001
## Country=Estonia <0.0001
## Country=Eswatini (Kingdom of) <0.0001
## Country=Ethiopia <0.0001
## Country=Europe and Central Asia <0.0001
## Country=Fiji <0.0001
## Country=Finland <0.0001
## Country=France <0.0001
## Country=Gabon <0.0001
## Country=Gambia <0.0001
## Country=Georgia 0.0029
## Country=Germany <0.0001
## Country=Ghana <0.0001
## Country=Greece <0.0001
## Country=Grenada <0.0001
## Country=Guatemala <0.0001
## Country=Guinea 0.0055
## Country=Guinea-Bissau 0.0008
## Country=Guyana <0.0001
## Country=Haiti <0.0001
## Country=High human development 0.0002
## Country=Honduras <0.0001
## Country=Hong Kong, China (SAR) <0.0001
## Country=Hungary <0.0001
## Country=Iceland <0.0001
## Country=India 0.4292
## Country=Indonesia <0.0001
## Country=Iran (Islamic Republic of) 0.2907
## Country=Iraq <0.0001
## Country=Ireland <0.0001
## Country=Israel <0.0001
## Country=Italy <0.0001
## Country=Jamaica <0.0001
## Country=Japan <0.0001
## Country=Jordan <0.0001
## Country=Kazakhstan <0.0001
## Country=Kenya <0.0001
## Country=Kiribati <0.0001
## Country=Korea (Republic of) <0.0001
## Country=Kuwait <0.0001
## Country=Kyrgyzstan <0.0001
## Country=Lao People's Democratic Republic 0.2062
## Country=Latin America and the Caribbean <0.0001
## Country=Latvia 0.0320
## Country=Least Developed Countries 0.0032
## Country=Lebanon <0.0001
## Country=Lesotho <0.0001
## Country=Liberia <0.0001
## Country=Libya <0.0001
## Country=Liechtenstein <0.0001
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## year * Country=Bolivia (Plurinational State of) <0.0001
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## year * Country=France <0.0001
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## year * Country=Germany <0.0001
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## year * Country=Guatemala <0.0001
## year * Country=Guinea 0.0049
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## year * Country=Guyana <0.0001
## year * Country=Haiti <0.0001
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## year * Country=Honduras <0.0001
## year * Country=Hong Kong, China (SAR) <0.0001
## year * Country=Hungary <0.0001
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## year * Country=Iraq <0.0001
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## year * Country=Israel <0.0001
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## year * Country=Poland <0.0001
## year * Country=Portugal <0.0001
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## year * Country=Solomon Islands <0.0001
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## year * Country=South Sudan <0.0001
## year * Country=Spain <0.0001
## year * Country=Sri Lanka <0.0001
## year * Country=Sub-Saharan Africa <0.0001
## year * Country=Sudan <0.0001
## year * Country=Suriname <0.0001
## year * Country=Sweden <0.0001
## year * Country=Switzerland <0.0001
## year * Country=Syrian Arab Republic <0.0001
## year * Country=Tajikistan <0.0001
## year * Country=Tanzania (United Republic of) <0.0001
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## year * Country=Timor-Leste 0.6708
## year * Country=Togo <0.0001
## year * Country=Tonga <0.0001
## year * Country=Trinidad and Tobago <0.0001
## year * Country=Tunisia <0.0001
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## year * Country=Turkmenistan 0.0247
## year * Country=Uganda 0.0544
## year * Country=Ukraine <0.0001
## year * Country=United Arab Emirates <0.0001
## year * Country=United Kingdom <0.0001
## year * Country=United States <0.0001
## year * Country=Uruguay <0.0001
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## year * Country=Vanuatu <0.0001
## year * Country=Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of) <0.0001
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## #improved?
lrtest(all_fit_same_slope, all_fit_diff_slope) #yes##
## Model 1: HDI ~ year + Country
## Model 2: HDI ~ year * Country
##
## L.R. Chisq d.f. P
## 5544 203 0#predict
preds = expand_grid(
year = c(1990:2040) %>% as.numeric(),
Country = c("China", "Denmark", "United States", "Japan") %>% factor(),
pred = T
)
preds$HDI = predict(all_fit_same_slope, newdata = preds %>% as.data.frame())
#plot real and predicted values
bind_rows(
preds,
HDI %>%
filter(
Country == c("China", "Denmark", "United States", "Japan")
) %>% mutate(
pred = F
)
) %>%
ggplot(aes(year, HDI, color = Country, linetype = pred)) +
geom_line() +
ggtitle("China rises: HDI 1990-2018",
"HDI = Human Development Index, composite score of expected lifespan, national income per capita, years of schooling")## Warning: Removed 1 row(s) containing missing values (geom_path).
GG_save("figs/china_rise_same_slope.png")## Warning: Removed 1 row(s) containing missing values (geom_path).#predict
preds = expand_grid(
year = c(1990:2040) %>% as.numeric(),
Country = c("China", "Denmark", "United States", "Japan") %>% factor(),
pred = T
)
preds$HDI = predict(all_fit_diff_slope, newdata = preds %>% as.data.frame())
#plot real and predicted values
bind_rows(
preds,
HDI %>%
filter(
Country == c("China", "Denmark", "United States", "Japan")
) %>% mutate(
pred = F
)
) %>%
ggplot(aes(year, HDI, color = Country, linetype = pred)) +
geom_line() +
ggtitle("China rises: HDI 1990-2018",
"HDI = Human Development Index, composite score of expected lifespan, national income per capita, years of schooling")## Warning: Removed 1 row(s) containing missing values (geom_path).
GG_save("figs/china_rise_diff_slope.png")## Warning: Removed 1 row(s) containing missing values (geom_path).