## I D G Prob
## 1 i0 d0 g1 0.126
## 2 i0 d0 g2 0.168
## 3 i0 d0 g3 0.126
## 4 i0 d1 g1 0.009
## 5 i0 d1 g2 0.045
## 6 i0 d1 g3 0.126
## 7 i1 d0 g1 0.252
## 8 i1 d0 g2 0.0224
## 9 i1 d0 g3 0.0056
## 10 i1 d1 g1 0.06
## 11 i1 d1 g2 0.036
## 12 i1 d1 g3 0.024
Let think about construct the dependency of these attributes
Grade depends on Diffulculty and IntelligenceSAT depends on IntelligenceLetter depends on GradeIf a student’s intelligence (\(i^0\)), and he takes a easy course (\(d^0\)), the probability he get grade A is very high \(0.9\)
If a stduent’s intelligence (\(i^1\)), the probability he get low SAT score (\(s^0\)) is very low \(0.2\)
If a student have grade A (\(g^1\)), the probability this student have a good reference letter (\(I^1\)) is very high \(0.9\)
\[P(G,D,I,S,L)\]
Answer
\(P(D)P(I)P(G|I,D)P(S|I)P(L|G)\)
Explaination
We can directly apply the chain rule for Bayesian networks here.
This comes from the standard chain rule of probability, which states that
\[P(D,I,G,S,L)=P(D)P(I|D)P(G|D,I)P(S|D,I,G)P(L|D,I,G,S).\]
We can then apply the conditional independencies in the graph to simplify this equation.