As of 19 July 2020 the inshore run is 225,338 of which 161,438 is harvest, 63,900 is escapement and an additional 0 fish estimated to be between the fleet and the counting tower. As of 19 July 2020 (R-square for a eight day late run = 0.58; Fig. 1). The 2020 pre-season forecast for Togiak district calls for a total run of 930,000 sockeye.
The current projection for eleven days late is 752,988.2 sockeye.
The current projection for ten days late is 698,860.1 sockeye.
The current projection for nine days late is 646,810.7 sockeye.
The current projection for eight days late is 598,215.1 sockeye.
The current projection for seven days late is 557,269.1 sockeye.
The current projection for six days late is 517,943.6 sockeye.
The current projection for five days late is 476,238.7 sockeye.
Figure 1. Run to date (X-axis) regressed again final inshore run (y-axis). Red line indicates current run to date.
Figure 2. Total Run to date (black line) and forecasted total run given the minimum and maximum timing range used in this set of projections (red lines). (note: What is plotted here is catch + escapement with escapement lagged back to catch by estimated travel time between the fishing district and the escapement counting project. The regression model above includes estimated inriver abundance. These inriver estimates are not included in this graph.)
[Note: Hovering your mouse over data points will show data and year.]