Bitcoin Forecasting

Summary

From the Wikipedia page for Bitcoin describes the technology and currency as follow:

“Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency that enables instant payments to anyone, anywhere in the world. Bitcoin uses peer-to-peer technology to operate with no central authority: transaction management and money issuance are carried out collectively by the network. The original Bitcoin software by Satoshi Nakamoto was released under the MIT license. Most client software, derived or”from scratch“, also use open source licensing. Bitcoin is the first successful implementation of a distributed crypto-currency, described in part in 1998 by Wei Dai on the cypherpunks mailing list. Building upon the notion that money is any object, or any sort of record, accepted as payment for goods and services and repayment of debts in a given country or socio-economic context, Bitcoin is designed around the idea of using cryptography to control the creation and transfer of money, rather than relying on central authorities. Bitcoins have all the desirable properties of a money-like good. They are portable, durable, divisible, recognizable, fungible, scarce and difficult to counterfeit.” - Wikipedia

All the data and plots represented are pulled from Yahoo Finance’s data for Bitcoin. From that pulled data is an analysis of the currency’s historical closing price data. This data is then run on a logarithmic scale to show the increasing trend of the currency against the United States Dollar.

Lastly represented is the next year’s price forecast using Facebook, Inc. R prophet package. This model is then plotted in an interactive chart that gives actual vs. predicted with a 95% confidence interval. Lastly, this model performance is then analyzed in the last two plots.

# Libraries
library(prophet)
library(lubridate)
library(ggplot2)

Plotted Historical Closing Data

# Pull bitcoin data
data <- read.csv("BTC.csv")
# Or use this if you have any other cryto csv file, data <- read.csv(file.choose(), header = T)
# Clean date formating if need be
data$Date <- dmy(data$Date)
# Plot bitcoin historical data
qplot(Date, Close, data = data,
      main = 'Bitcoin Closing Prices 2014-2020')

Plotted Historical Closing Data Logarithmically

# Log transformation
ds <- data$Date
y <- log(data$Close)
df <- data.frame(ds, y)
# Plot log transformation
qplot(ds, y, data = df,
      main = 'Bitcoin Closing Prices in Log Scale')

Bitcoin Forecast Pricing

This will pull a year of foretasted data forward from 07/07/2020.

# Forecasting with Facebook's prophet package
m <- prophet(df)
future <- make_future_dataframe(m, periods = 365)
forecast <- predict(m, future)

Forecast Plotting

Below is the interactive forecasting of Bitcoin for the next 365 days. The next plot shows three trend lines, annually, daily, and monthly. Interestingly, Bitcoin trades at a higher price on Mondays and lowest on Sunday and Thursday. Then as well, the currency trades higher in the late summer months and lower in the spring months. These analyses are based on the last four years of data.

# Plot forecast
dyplot.prophet(m, forecast)

prophet_plot_components(m, forecast)

Model Performance

The yhat value is taken from the forecast as it is the predicted value from the modeling. This value and the first 2121 points of it (all current values) are taken and plotted against actual closing prices.

From this model, a trendline is plotted along with the points. This plot gives an ideal linear graph. Running a summary gives Multiple R-squared values of 0.9935. This value tells us that this model is explaining 99.35% of the variability.

By doing cross-validation using the performance metrics model, we can calculate MSE, RMSE, MAE, MAPE, and coverage. The rolling window specifies the amount of data used; in this case, it will be 0.1 (10%). This window gives analyzes against four RMSE trends and gives an average trendline between the four depicted in the blue trendline.

# Model performance
pred <- forecast$yhat[1:2121]
actual <- m$history$y
plot(actual, pred)
abline(lm(pred~actual), col = 'red')

summary(lm(pred~actual))

## 
## Call:
## lm(formula = pred ~ actual)
## 
## Residuals:
##      Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max 
## -0.55443 -0.07032  0.00122  0.06725  0.50131 
## 
## Coefficients:
##             Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  0.05726    0.01339   4.275 1.99e-05 ***
## actual       0.99243    0.00174 570.219  < 2e-16 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## Residual standard error: 0.115 on 2119 degrees of freedom
## Multiple R-squared:  0.9935, Adjusted R-squared:  0.9935 
## F-statistic: 3.252e+05 on 1 and 2119 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

x <- cross_validation(m, 365, units = 'days')
performance_metrics(x, rolling_window = 0.1)

##        horizon       mse      rmse       mae       mape  coverage
## 1    876 hours 0.1083186 0.3291180 0.2417139 0.02742262 0.3904110
## 2    888 hours 0.1083522 0.3291690 0.2420501 0.02745294 0.3972603
## 3    900 hours 0.1147304 0.3387187 0.2496820 0.02833604 0.3904110
## 4    912 hours 0.1146537 0.3386056 0.2495879 0.02831688 0.3972603
## 5    924 hours 0.1200455 0.3464759 0.2565296 0.02911408 0.3904110
## 6    936 hours 0.1198768 0.3462324 0.2560052 0.02904762 0.3972603
## 7    948 hours 0.1248586 0.3533533 0.2631934 0.02986597 0.3835616
## 8    960 hours 0.1248645 0.3533617 0.2632535 0.02986613 0.3835616
## 9    972 hours 0.1298501 0.3603472 0.2700664 0.03064252 0.3698630
## 10   984 hours 0.1296502 0.3600698 0.2693200 0.03055687 0.3835616
## 11   996 hours 0.1340774 0.3661657 0.2760441 0.03131887 0.3698630
## 12  1008 hours 0.1338808 0.3658972 0.2751023 0.03121008 0.3835616
## 13  1020 hours 0.1393453 0.3732898 0.2830139 0.03210501 0.3698630
## 14  1032 hours 0.1392898 0.3732155 0.2827011 0.03206666 0.3835616
## 15  1044 hours 0.1443984 0.3799979 0.2905694 0.03295429 0.3698630
## 16  1056 hours 0.1441763 0.3797055 0.2898097 0.03286279 0.3835616
## 17  1068 hours 0.1492632 0.3863460 0.2971439 0.03369199 0.3698630
## 18  1080 hours 0.1490677 0.3860928 0.2964990 0.03361399 0.3835616
## 19  1092 hours 0.1547832 0.3934250 0.3037902 0.03443903 0.3698630
## 20  1104 hours 0.1537828 0.3921515 0.3013907 0.03416694 0.3835616
## 21  1116 hours 0.1605804 0.4007248 0.3098629 0.03512463 0.3698630
## 22  1128 hours 0.1593858 0.3992315 0.3071470 0.03481514 0.3835616
## 23  1140 hours 0.1661861 0.4076593 0.3155139 0.03576001 0.3767123
## 24  1152 hours 0.1650491 0.4062624 0.3128491 0.03545556 0.3904110
## 25  1164 hours 0.1720618 0.4148034 0.3212607 0.03640592 0.3767123
## 26  1176 hours 0.1708252 0.4133100 0.3183571 0.03607344 0.3904110
## 27  1188 hours 0.1782457 0.4221916 0.3268595 0.03703514 0.3767123
## 28  1200 hours 0.1775094 0.4213186 0.3247802 0.03679313 0.3904110
## 29  1212 hours 0.1842128 0.4292002 0.3326406 0.03767957 0.3767123
## 30  1224 hours 0.1830526 0.4278465 0.3298662 0.03736017 0.3904110
## 31  1236 hours 0.1893766 0.4351742 0.3370363 0.03816895 0.3835616
## 32  1248 hours 0.1878064 0.4333663 0.3338298 0.03780015 0.3972603
## 33  1260 hours 0.1943550 0.4408571 0.3405781 0.03856482 0.3972603
## 34  1272 hours 0.1926620 0.4389328 0.3372607 0.03818291 0.4109589
## 35  1284 hours 0.1988560 0.4459328 0.3439884 0.03894197 0.4041096
## 36  1296 hours 0.1973223 0.4442098 0.3407765 0.03857100 0.4178082
## 37  1308 hours 0.2035677 0.4511847 0.3476640 0.03934688 0.4178082
## 38  1320 hours 0.2018226 0.4492467 0.3439992 0.03892456 0.4315068
## 39  1332 hours 0.2075728 0.4556016 0.3502112 0.03962453 0.4315068
## 40  1344 hours 0.2055813 0.4534107 0.3458990 0.03912962 0.4452055
## 41  1356 hours 0.2112682 0.4596392 0.3520337 0.03982038 0.4452055
## 42  1368 hours 0.2093165 0.4575112 0.3476451 0.03931698 0.4589041
## 43  1380 hours 0.2153259 0.4640323 0.3540288 0.04003626 0.4589041
## 44  1392 hours 0.2136107 0.4621804 0.3498595 0.03955808 0.4726027
## 45  1404 hours 0.2206976 0.4697847 0.3569873 0.04036369 0.4726027
## 46  1416 hours 0.2187166 0.4676715 0.3529196 0.03989783 0.4863014
## 47  1428 hours 0.2271643 0.4766176 0.3613387 0.04085095 0.4794521
## 48  1440 hours 0.2243519 0.4736580 0.3567160 0.04032102 0.4931507
## 49  1452 hours 0.2338868 0.4836184 0.3659630 0.04137024 0.4863014
## 50  1464 hours 0.2311332 0.4807632 0.3613265 0.04083959 0.5000000
## 51  1476 hours 0.2410203 0.4909382 0.3709606 0.04193298 0.4931507
## 52  1488 hours 0.2372746 0.4871084 0.3656607 0.04132545 0.5068493
## 53  1500 hours 0.2481108 0.4981072 0.3760425 0.04250643 0.4931507
## 54  1512 hours 0.2438178 0.4937791 0.3702826 0.04184445 0.5068493
## 55  1524 hours 0.2535433 0.5035308 0.3806235 0.04301494 0.4931507
## 56  1536 hours 0.2496118 0.4996116 0.3752376 0.04239631 0.5068493
## 57  1548 hours 0.2601783 0.5100768 0.3861524 0.04363384 0.4931507
## 58  1560 hours 0.2550977 0.5050720 0.3799044 0.04291384 0.5068493
## 59  1572 hours 0.2658399 0.5155966 0.3912258 0.04419739 0.4931507
## 60  1584 hours 0.2583409 0.5082725 0.3833690 0.04328388 0.5068493
## 61  1596 hours 0.2708815 0.5204628 0.3953894 0.04465680 0.4931507
## 62  1608 hours 0.2646444 0.5144360 0.3881090 0.04381625 0.5068493
## 63  1620 hours 0.2773429 0.5266335 0.3998039 0.04515210 0.4931507
## 64  1632 hours 0.2708097 0.5203938 0.3923446 0.04429053 0.5068493
## 65  1644 hours 0.2837670 0.5326979 0.4045487 0.04568400 0.4931507
## 66  1656 hours 0.2775909 0.5268689 0.3969448 0.04480988 0.5068493
## 67  1668 hours 0.2914550 0.5398658 0.4092700 0.04622083 0.4931507
## 68  1680 hours 0.2857804 0.5345843 0.4020061 0.04538819 0.5068493
## 69  1692 hours 0.2991083 0.5469080 0.4142850 0.04679088 0.4931507
## 70  1704 hours 0.2932315 0.5415086 0.4070799 0.04596543 0.5068493
## 71  1716 hours 0.3061028 0.5532656 0.4192315 0.04735027 0.4931507
## 72  1728 hours 0.2994466 0.5472172 0.4115280 0.04646553 0.5068493
## 73  1740 hours 0.3119739 0.5585463 0.4232287 0.04779900 0.4931507
## 74  1752 hours 0.3061675 0.5533241 0.4158978 0.04696224 0.5068493
## 75  1764 hours 0.3184862 0.5643458 0.4268903 0.04821809 0.4931507
## 76  1776 hours 0.3120740 0.5586359 0.4191779 0.04733612 0.5068493
## 77  1788 hours 0.3250131 0.5700992 0.4307250 0.04865668 0.4931507
## 78  1800 hours 0.3195942 0.5653266 0.4235513 0.04784000 0.5068493
## 79  1812 hours 0.3324184 0.5765574 0.4350966 0.04915943 0.4931507
## 80  1824 hours 0.3275548 0.5723240 0.4282479 0.04838294 0.5068493
## 81  1836 hours 0.3408997 0.5838661 0.4401576 0.04974707 0.4931507
## 82  1848 hours 0.3359881 0.5796448 0.4335234 0.04899486 0.5068493
## 83  1860 hours 0.3495945 0.5912652 0.4454097 0.05035801 0.4931507
## 84  1872 hours 0.3455282 0.5878164 0.4401592 0.04976318 0.5068493
## 85  1884 hours 0.3601123 0.6000936 0.4528672 0.05122135 0.4931507
## 86  1896 hours 0.3551437 0.5959394 0.4470309 0.05056018 0.5068493
## 87  1908 hours 0.3709350 0.6090443 0.4599715 0.05204905 0.4931507
## 88  1920 hours 0.3664254 0.6053308 0.4546215 0.05144501 0.5068493
## 89  1932 hours 0.3819480 0.6180194 0.4672490 0.05289942 0.4931507
## 90  1944 hours 0.3772599 0.6142149 0.4615705 0.05225854 0.5068493
## 91  1956 hours 0.3949907 0.6284829 0.4749317 0.05380718 0.4931507
## 92  1968 hours 0.3896634 0.6242303 0.4689192 0.05312822 0.5068493
## 93  1980 hours 0.4084003 0.6390620 0.4829225 0.05475441 0.4931507
## 94  1992 hours 0.4021313 0.6341383 0.4764623 0.05402373 0.5068493
## 95  2004 hours 0.4207772 0.6486735 0.4904488 0.05564790 0.4931507
## 96  2016 hours 0.4144338 0.6437653 0.4837590 0.05489291 0.5068493
## 97  2028 hours 0.4336975 0.6585571 0.4980082 0.05654897 0.4931507
## 98  2040 hours 0.4272129 0.6536153 0.4915535 0.05581967 0.5068493
## 99  2052 hours 0.4481238 0.6694205 0.5068470 0.05758148 0.4931507
## 100 2064 hours 0.4412344 0.6642548 0.5001373 0.05682332 0.5068493
## 101 2076 hours 0.4616248 0.6794298 0.5153056 0.05856454 0.4931507
## 102 2088 hours 0.4555091 0.6749142 0.5091961 0.05787824 0.5068493
## 103 2100 hours 0.4774536 0.6909802 0.5248210 0.05968304 0.4931507
## 104 2112 hours 0.4716170 0.6867437 0.5189094 0.05902031 0.5068493
## 105 2124 hours 0.4941875 0.7029847 0.5346080 0.06083315 0.4931507
## 106 2136 hours 0.4879017 0.6984996 0.5285008 0.06014743 0.5068493
## 107 2148 hours 0.5112398 0.7150104 0.5444186 0.06198824 0.4931507
## 108 2160 hours 0.5055182 0.7109980 0.5387956 0.06135983 0.5068493
## 109 2172 hours 0.5285898 0.7270418 0.5547530 0.06319777 0.4931507
## 110 2184 hours 0.5228432 0.7230790 0.5489858 0.06255349 0.5068493
## 111 2196 hours 0.5459830 0.7389067 0.5652212 0.06441919 0.4931507
## 112 2208 hours 0.5406086 0.7352609 0.5597170 0.06380556 0.5068493
## 113 2220 hours 0.5646859 0.7514558 0.5766700 0.06575742 0.4931507
## 114 2232 hours 0.5593484 0.7478960 0.5710518 0.06513168 0.5068493
## 115 2244 hours 0.5838109 0.7640752 0.5883231 0.06711578 0.4931507
## 116 2256 hours 0.5782022 0.7603961 0.5824912 0.06646617 0.5068493
## 117 2268 hours 0.6015919 0.7756236 0.5994206 0.06841263 0.4931507
## 118 2280 hours 0.5953810 0.7716093 0.5936645 0.06777113 0.5068493
## 119 2292 hours 0.6164978 0.7851738 0.6093307 0.06955897 0.4931507
## 120 2304 hours 0.6092131 0.7805211 0.6030322 0.06885245 0.5068493
## 121 2316 hours 0.6303514 0.7939467 0.6183203 0.07059710 0.4931507
## 122 2328 hours 0.6221443 0.7887613 0.6116136 0.06984093 0.5068493
## 123 2340 hours 0.6433950 0.8021190 0.6270327 0.07159732 0.4931507
## 124 2352 hours 0.6349386 0.7968303 0.6201500 0.07082049 0.5068493
## 125 2364 hours 0.6550561 0.8093554 0.6348875 0.07249572 0.4931507
## 126 2376 hours 0.6455896 0.8034859 0.6275188 0.07165774 0.5068493
## 127 2388 hours 0.6671134 0.8167701 0.6428387 0.07340014 0.4931507
## 128 2400 hours 0.6589552 0.8117606 0.6362280 0.07265279 0.5068493
## 129 2412 hours 0.6810723 0.8252711 0.6516650 0.07441067 0.4931507
## 130 2424 hours 0.6721898 0.8198718 0.6447108 0.07362190 0.5068493
## 131 2436 hours 0.6938636 0.8329848 0.6600921 0.07536862 0.4931507
## 132 2448 hours 0.6850597 0.8276833 0.6533299 0.07460134 0.5068493
## 133 2460 hours 0.7066791 0.8406421 0.6689271 0.07636975 0.4931507
## 134 2472 hours 0.6961873 0.8343784 0.6614488 0.07551285 0.5068493
## 135 2484 hours 0.7168474 0.8466684 0.6768390 0.07725136 0.4931507
## 136 2496 hours 0.7061769 0.8403433 0.6690766 0.07636203 0.5068493
## 137 2508 hours 0.7267910 0.8525204 0.6844727 0.07810063 0.4931507
## 138 2520 hours 0.7160056 0.8461712 0.6766012 0.07719904 0.5068493
## 139 2532 hours 0.7371191 0.8585564 0.6922600 0.07896656 0.4931507
## 140 2544 hours 0.7255697 0.8518038 0.6842356 0.07804226 0.5068493
## 141 2556 hours 0.7471595 0.8643839 0.7000604 0.07982425 0.4931507
## 142 2568 hours 0.7364979 0.8581946 0.6927987 0.07899006 0.5068493
## 143 2580 hours 0.7563491 0.8696833 0.7077263 0.08066390 0.4931507
## 144 2592 hours 0.7462256 0.8638435 0.7006491 0.07985422 0.5068493
## 145 2604 hours 0.7671696 0.8758822 0.7160194 0.08158967 0.4931507
## 146 2616 hours 0.7571841 0.8701632 0.7081665 0.08069407 0.5000000
## 147 2628 hours 0.7776415 0.8818398 0.7234965 0.08241889 0.4863014
## 148 2640 hours 0.7678065 0.8762457 0.7153375 0.08148917 0.4931507
## 149 2652 hours 0.7890211 0.8882686 0.7309833 0.08325296 0.4794521
## 150 2664 hours 0.7787568 0.8824720 0.7224143 0.08227555 0.4863014
## 151 2676 hours 0.7994939 0.8941442 0.7379938 0.08402869 0.4726027
## 152 2688 hours 0.7894582 0.8885146 0.7297296 0.08308582 0.4794521
## 153 2700 hours 0.8100341 0.9000189 0.7452727 0.08483392 0.4657534
## 154 2712 hours 0.7998952 0.8943686 0.7369147 0.08388015 0.4726027
## 155 2724 hours 0.8214259 0.9063255 0.7525824 0.08564299 0.4589041
## 156 2736 hours 0.8111338 0.9006297 0.7443356 0.08469913 0.4657534
## 157 2748 hours 0.8330859 0.9127354 0.7592714 0.08638085 0.4520548
## 158 2760 hours 0.8220063 0.9066456 0.7506726 0.08539418 0.4589041
## 159 2772 hours 0.8440099 0.9187001 0.7654377 0.08705298 0.4452055
## 160 2784 hours 0.8317153 0.9119842 0.7562113 0.08599046 0.4520548
## 161 2796 hours 0.8535787 0.9238932 0.7707805 0.08761806 0.4383562
## 162 2808 hours 0.8416241 0.9174007 0.7616350 0.08656601 0.4452055
## 163 2820 hours 0.8640372 0.9295360 0.7766245 0.08824081 0.4315068
## 164 2832 hours 0.8500212 0.9219659 0.7667447 0.08709455 0.4383562
## 165 2844 hours 0.8722141 0.9339240 0.7815901 0.08875179 0.4246575
## 166 2856 hours 0.8573373 0.9259251 0.7714875 0.08757475 0.4315068
## 167 2868 hours 0.8798741 0.9380160 0.7862746 0.08922733 0.4178082
## 168 2880 hours 0.8651838 0.9301526 0.7762412 0.08805883 0.4246575
## 169 2892 hours 0.8889771 0.9428558 0.7915953 0.08977669 0.4109589
## 170 2904 hours 0.8737094 0.9347242 0.7814005 0.08858709 0.4178082
## 171 2916 hours 0.8984906 0.9478874 0.7970714 0.09033938 0.4041096
## 172 2928 hours 0.8815570 0.9389127 0.7858480 0.08904466 0.4178082
## 173 2940 hours 0.9068038 0.9522625 0.8017011 0.09081303 0.4041096
## 174 2952 hours 0.8906592 0.9437474 0.7907464 0.08955693 0.4109589
## 175 2964 hours 0.9173562 0.9577872 0.8069455 0.09136364 0.3972603
## 176 2976 hours 0.8998296 0.9485935 0.7955330 0.09004579 0.4041096
## 177 2988 hours 0.9304705 0.9646090 0.8130617 0.09199686 0.3904110
## 178 3000 hours 0.9123420 0.9551659 0.8015064 0.09066289 0.3972603
## 179 3012 hours 0.9424681 0.9708080 0.8187830 0.09258847 0.3835616
## 180 3024 hours 0.9236664 0.9610756 0.8068593 0.09121005 0.3904110
## 181 3036 hours 0.9555092 0.9775015 0.8245637 0.09316607 0.3767123
## 182 3048 hours 0.9372445 0.9681139 0.8128964 0.09182439 0.3835616
## 183 3060 hours 0.9700839 0.9849284 0.8310534 0.09382833 0.3698630
## 184 3072 hours 0.9519412 0.9756747 0.8195034 0.09250334 0.3767123
## 185 3084 hours 0.9862040 0.9930780 0.8380495 0.09455034 0.3630137
## 186 3096 hours 0.9686297 0.9841899 0.8269937 0.09328505 0.3698630
## 187 3108 hours 1.0027165 1.0013574 0.8456732 0.09535436 0.3561644
## 188 3120 hours 0.9851975 0.9925711 0.8345433 0.09408592 0.3630137
## 189 3132 hours 1.0189805 1.0094457 0.8529526 0.09613784 0.3493151
## 190 3144 hours 1.0028851 1.0014415 0.8425537 0.09495228 0.3561644
## 191 3156 hours 1.0358965 1.0177900 0.8601646 0.09691042 0.3424658
## 192 3168 hours 1.0222418 1.0110598 0.8507261 0.09584917 0.3493151
## 193 3180 hours 1.0579400 1.0285621 0.8691919 0.09788768 0.3356164
## 194 3192 hours 1.0441249 1.0218243 0.8595190 0.09679947 0.3424658
## 195 3204 hours 1.0786430 1.0385774 0.8775526 0.09878858 0.3287671
## 196 3216 hours 1.0672151 1.0330610 0.8689109 0.09783858 0.3356164
## 197 3228 hours 1.1023948 1.0499499 0.8870935 0.09984583 0.3219178
## 198 3240 hours 1.0937675 1.0458334 0.8794931 0.09903146 0.3287671
## 199 3252 hours 1.1298499 1.0629440 0.8979144 0.10107873 0.3150685
## 200 3264 hours 1.1194532 1.0580422 0.8898775 0.10020885 0.3219178
## 201 3276 hours 1.1577366 1.0759817 0.9087492 0.10231245 0.3082192
## 202 3288 hours 1.1480429 1.0714676 0.9012395 0.10150992 0.3150685
## 203 3300 hours 1.1868200 1.0894127 0.9202042 0.10362104 0.3013699
## 204 3312 hours 1.1779272 1.0853235 0.9128352 0.10284024 0.3082192
## 205 3324 hours 1.2173225 1.1033234 0.9317188 0.10494253 0.2945205
## 206 3336 hours 1.2111500 1.1005226 0.9255469 0.10432184 0.3013699
## 207 3348 hours 1.2527976 1.1192844 0.9450363 0.10648416 0.2876712
## 208 3360 hours 1.2472391 1.1167986 0.9389827 0.10587789 0.2945205
## 209 3372 hours 1.2893868 1.1355117 0.9587438 0.10806843 0.2808219
## 210 3384 hours 1.2855684 1.1338291 0.9531535 0.10752841 0.2876712
## 211 3396 hours 1.3288086 1.1527396 0.9731016 0.10974681 0.2739726
## 212 3408 hours 1.3245902 1.1509084 0.9670102 0.10914942 0.2808219
## 213 3420 hours 1.3666302 1.1690296 0.9864394 0.11130219 0.2671233
## 214 3432 hours 1.3599571 1.1661720 0.9795208 0.11059434 0.2739726
## 215 3444 hours 1.4012627 1.1837494 0.9982039 0.11266935 0.2602740
## 216 3456 hours 1.3965537 1.1817587 0.9921024 0.11205934 0.2671233
## 217 3468 hours 1.4385325 1.1993884 1.0109455 0.11414598 0.2534247
## 218 3480 hours 1.4344802 1.1976979 1.0049244 0.11354743 0.2602740
## 219 3492 hours 1.4767381 1.2152111 1.0246361 0.11573138 0.2534247
## 220 3504 hours 1.4725771 1.2134979 1.0186397 0.11513253 0.2602740
## 221 3516 hours 1.5151710 1.2309228 1.0388325 0.11736427 0.2534247
## 222 3528 hours 1.5110278 1.2292387 1.0329292 0.11677750 0.2602740
## 223 3540 hours 1.5520949 1.2458310 1.0528116 0.11898086 0.2534247
## 224 3552 hours 1.5503881 1.2451458 1.0476707 0.11849864 0.2602740
## 225 3564 hours 1.5913505 1.2614874 1.0671396 0.12066910 0.2534247
## 226 3576 hours 1.5898185 1.2608801 1.0621283 0.12019939 0.2602740
## 227 3588 hours 1.6306411 1.2769656 1.0815487 0.12235726 0.2534247
## 228 3600 hours 1.6296939 1.2765946 1.0764398 0.12188956 0.2602740
## 229 3612 hours 1.6705219 1.2924867 1.0956744 0.12402628 0.2534247
## 230 3624 hours 1.6709968 1.2926704 1.0908690 0.12360945 0.2602740
## 231 3636 hours 1.7126036 1.3086648 1.1103073 0.12576435 0.2534247
## 232 3648 hours 1.7140860 1.3092311 1.1057266 0.12538448 0.2602740
## 233 3660 hours 1.7558972 1.3251027 1.1252234 0.12754900 0.2534247
## 234 3672 hours 1.7574506 1.3256887 1.1206041 0.12717084 0.2602740
## 235 3684 hours 1.7991455 1.3413223 1.1400271 0.12933343 0.2534247
## 236 3696 hours 1.7995981 1.3414910 1.1352299 0.12892685 0.2602740
## 237 3708 hours 1.8452597 1.3584034 1.1555437 0.13120401 0.2534247
## 238 3720 hours 1.8472200 1.3591247 1.1512977 0.13087006 0.2602740
## 239 3732 hours 1.8926283 1.3757283 1.1714182 0.13312355 0.2534247
## 240 3744 hours 1.8950865 1.3766214 1.1673409 0.13281320 0.2602740
## 241 3756 hours 1.9428404 1.3938581 1.1880066 0.13513470 0.2534247
## 242 3768 hours 1.9438517 1.3942208 1.1834287 0.13476252 0.2602740
## 243 3780 hours 1.9931191 1.4117787 1.2043504 0.13711991 0.2534247
## 244 3792 hours 1.9948616 1.4123957 1.1998383 0.13677107 0.2602740
## 245 3804 hours 2.0441479 1.4297370 1.2209268 0.13912944 0.2465753
## 246 3816 hours 2.0462942 1.4304874 1.2165916 0.13881172 0.2534247
## 247 3828 hours 2.0969986 1.4481017 1.2379407 0.14120292 0.2465753
## 248 3840 hours 2.0979351 1.4484250 1.2331215 0.14083222 0.2534247
## 249 3852 hours 2.1486149 1.4658155 1.2544752 0.14321705 0.2465753
## 250 3864 hours 2.1456567 1.4648060 1.2485267 0.14272412 0.2534247
## 251 3876 hours 2.1974530 1.4823808 1.2700670 0.14512668 0.2465753
## 252 3888 hours 2.1930285 1.4808877 1.2640920 0.14460557 0.2534247
## 253 3900 hours 2.2435167 1.4978373 1.2854301 0.14698121 0.2465753
## 254 3912 hours 2.2361342 1.4953709 1.2778986 0.14629038 0.2534247
## 255 3924 hours 2.2870000 1.5122830 1.2992049 0.14865745 0.2465753
## 256 3936 hours 2.2783521 1.5094211 1.2913552 0.14793074 0.2534247
## 257 3948 hours 2.3297743 1.5263598 1.3127161 0.15029932 0.2465753
## 258 3960 hours 2.3173101 1.5222714 1.3037686 0.14942628 0.2534247
## 259 3972 hours 2.3693752 1.5392775 1.3249463 0.15175486 0.2465753
## 260 3984 hours 2.3586870 1.5358017 1.3165428 0.15094986 0.2534247
## 261 3996 hours 2.4151512 1.5540757 1.3387332 0.15340328 0.2465753
## 262 4008 hours 2.4039458 1.5504663 1.3299632 0.15253637 0.2534247
## 263 4020 hours 2.4601998 1.5685024 1.3519441 0.15495888 0.2465753
## 264 4032 hours 2.4494144 1.5650605 1.3434556 0.15412602 0.2534247
## 265 4044 hours 2.5057920 1.5829694 1.3653250 0.15653236 0.2465753
## 266 4056 hours 2.4918833 1.5785700 1.3558194 0.15559644 0.2534247
## 267 4068 hours 2.5500940 1.5969014 1.3783637 0.15806383 0.2465753
## 268 4080 hours 2.5389370 1.5934042 1.3696450 0.15723324 0.2534247
## 269 4092 hours 2.5984417 1.6119683 1.3920121 0.15964676 0.2465753
## 270 4104 hours 2.5861367 1.6081470 1.3829791 0.15877633 0.2534247
## 271 4116 hours 2.6394580 1.6246409 1.4036120 0.16100636 0.2465753
## 272 4128 hours 2.6278004 1.6210492 1.3946991 0.16015215 0.2534247
## 273 4140 hours 2.6859545 1.6388882 1.4162829 0.16248448 0.2465753
## 274 4152 hours 2.6700218 1.6340201 1.4061427 0.16146806 0.2534247
## 275 4164 hours 2.7242131 1.6505190 1.4263964 0.16363533 0.2465753
## 276 4176 hours 2.7082965 1.6456903 1.4160946 0.16260968 0.2534247
## 277 4188 hours 2.7586398 1.6609154 1.4355032 0.16469232 0.2465753
## 278 4200 hours 2.7414100 1.6557204 1.4249452 0.16363344 0.2534247
## 279 4212 hours 2.7886320 1.6699198 1.4430587 0.16555144 0.2465753
## 280 4224 hours 2.7698983 1.6643011 1.4320554 0.16445857 0.2534247
## 281 4236 hours 2.8172200 1.6784576 1.4503876 0.16639569 0.2465753
## 282 4248 hours 2.7971224 1.6724600 1.4389420 0.16524851 0.2534247
## 283 4260 hours 2.8460382 1.6870205 1.4576666 0.16719931 0.2465753
## 284 4272 hours 2.8238803 1.6804405 1.4458513 0.16599693 0.2534247
## 285 4284 hours 2.8705707 1.6942759 1.4643576 0.16793467 0.2465753
## 286 4296 hours 2.8500447 1.6882075 1.4526797 0.16676113 0.2534247
## 287 4308 hours 2.8981116 1.7023841 1.4716481 0.16877502 0.2465753
## 288 4320 hours 2.8777035 1.6963795 1.4601716 0.16761508 0.2534247
## 289 4332 hours 2.9258327 1.7105066 1.4790631 0.16961535 0.2465753
## 290 4344 hours 2.9046386 1.7043000 1.4674201 0.16844355 0.2534247
## 291 4356 hours 2.9508013 1.7177897 1.4858855 0.17037206 0.2465753
## 292 4368 hours 2.9278828 1.7111057 1.4741259 0.16917320 0.2534247
## 293 4380 hours 2.9768740 1.7253620 1.4932765 0.17117675 0.2465753
## 294 4392 hours 2.9539338 1.7187012 1.4818775 0.17002572 0.2534247
## 295 4404 hours 3.0032661 1.7329934 1.5009348 0.17201067 0.2465753
## 296 4416 hours 2.9815088 1.7267046 1.4899387 0.17089694 0.2534247
## 297 4428 hours 3.0302226 1.7407535 1.5086580 0.17284992 0.2465753
## 298 4440 hours 3.0081517 1.7344024 1.4975961 0.17171538 0.2534247
## 299 4452 hours 3.0545770 1.7477348 1.5157008 0.17361280 0.2465753
## 300 4464 hours 3.0345603 1.7419990 1.5054559 0.17259627 0.2534247
## 301 4476 hours 3.0815305 1.7554289 1.5237619 0.17450206 0.2465753
## 302 4488 hours 3.0611132 1.7496037 1.5133781 0.17346959 0.2534247
## 303 4500 hours 3.1050245 1.7621080 1.5308782 0.17527438 0.2465753
## 304 4512 hours 3.0837942 1.7560735 1.5204397 0.17424088 0.2534247
## 305 4524 hours 3.1237152 1.7674035 1.5368895 0.17593662 0.2465753
## 306 4536 hours 3.1027274 1.7614561 1.5265509 0.17491880 0.2534247
## 307 4548 hours 3.1436798 1.7730425 1.5432972 0.17663737 0.2465753
## 308 4560 hours 3.1218581 1.7668781 1.5333483 0.17564300 0.2534247
## 309 4572 hours 3.1584220 1.7771950 1.5488138 0.17723802 0.2465753
## 310 4584 hours 3.1327661 1.7699622 1.5379768 0.17613339 0.2534247
## 311 4596 hours 3.1660873 1.7793502 1.5525962 0.17760285 0.2465753
## 312 4608 hours 3.1401288 1.7720409 1.5416888 0.17649032 0.2534247
## 313 4620 hours 3.1746601 1.7817576 1.5566026 0.17796820 0.2465753
## 314 4632 hours 3.1460829 1.7737201 1.5452156 0.17679228 0.2534247
## 315 4644 hours 3.1803559 1.7833552 1.5600642 0.17826687 0.2465753
## 316 4656 hours 3.1501681 1.7748713 1.5483614 0.17704952 0.2534247
## 317 4668 hours 3.1838392 1.7843316 1.5630319 0.17848820 0.2465753
## 318 4680 hours 3.1529091 1.7756433 1.5509035 0.17723721 0.2534247
## 319 4692 hours 3.1851621 1.7847023 1.5650555 0.17861155 0.2465753
## 320 4704 hours 3.1530956 1.7756958 1.5526769 0.17733560 0.2534247
## 321 4716 hours 3.1844605 1.7845057 1.5666026 0.17868770 0.2465753
## 322 4728 hours 3.1523301 1.7754802 1.5542833 0.17742501 0.2534247
## 323 4740 hours 3.1817411 1.7837436 1.5674725 0.17869477 0.2465753
## 324 4752 hours 3.1479424 1.7742442 1.5547111 0.17738350 0.2534247
## 325 4764 hours 3.1766130 1.7823055 1.5675053 0.17861643 0.2465753
## 326 4776 hours 3.1437202 1.7730539 1.5548271 0.17731985 0.2534247
## 327 4788 hours 3.1747288 1.7817769 1.5687891 0.17869951 0.2465753
## 328 4800 hours 3.1409757 1.7722798 1.5559149 0.17738353 0.2534247
## 329 4812 hours 3.1734094 1.7814066 1.5701231 0.17880005 0.2465753
## 330 4824 hours 3.1387020 1.7716382 1.5569532 0.17745500 0.2534247
## 331 4836 hours 3.1718851 1.7809787 1.5713813 0.17892166 0.2465753
## 332 4848 hours 3.1350730 1.7706137 1.5578286 0.17754045 0.2534247
## 333 4860 hours 3.1670103 1.7796096 1.5718931 0.17894989 0.2465753
## 334 4872 hours 3.1254305 1.7678887 1.5574498 0.17745389 0.2534247
## 335 4884 hours 3.1580412 1.7770878 1.5719984 0.17892500 0.2465753
## 336 4896 hours 3.1173321 1.7655968 1.5580645 0.17749692 0.2534247
## 337 4908 hours 3.1507206 1.7750269 1.5726475 0.17897014 0.2465753
## 338 4920 hours 3.1095670 1.7633964 1.5586032 0.17753374 0.2534247
## 339 4932 hours 3.1464528 1.7738243 1.5740427 0.17910881 0.2465753
## 340 4944 hours 3.1031134 1.7615656 1.5595265 0.17763007 0.2534247
## 341 4956 hours 3.1398959 1.7719751 1.5748972 0.17917983 0.2465753
## 342 4968 hours 3.0927437 1.7586198 1.5593883 0.17760608 0.2602740
## 343 4980 hours 3.1308698 1.7694264 1.5750800 0.17919435 0.2534247
## 344 4992 hours 3.0877814 1.7572084 1.5606054 0.17770717 0.2671233
## 345 5004 hours 3.1260404 1.7680612 1.5763684 0.17928804 0.2602740
## 346 5016 hours 3.0781412 1.7544632 1.5607195 0.17767626 0.2739726
## 347 5028 hours 3.1208488 1.7665924 1.5775884 0.17940888 0.2671233
## 348 5040 hours 3.0757360 1.7537776 1.5625210 0.17787175 0.2808219
## 349 5052 hours 3.1197587 1.7662839 1.5798760 0.17963763 0.2739726
## 350 5064 hours 3.0781102 1.7544544 1.5655997 0.17817866 0.2876712
## 351 5076 hours 3.1229574 1.7671891 1.5830149 0.17996350 0.2808219
## 352 5088 hours 3.0819461 1.7555472 1.5691467 0.17854215 0.2945205
## 353 5100 hours 3.1283930 1.7687264 1.5868543 0.18035034 0.2876712
## 354 5112 hours 3.0879495 1.7572562 1.5731378 0.17896019 0.3013699
## 355 5124 hours 3.1378716 1.7714039 1.5916563 0.18088254 0.2945205
## 356 5136 hours 3.0942749 1.7590551 1.5771601 0.17942213 0.3082192
## 357 5148 hours 3.1437882 1.7730731 1.5955071 0.18132360 0.3013699
## 358 5160 hours 3.1005460 1.7608367 1.5810201 0.17983547 0.3150685
## 359 5172 hours 3.1506706 1.7750128 1.5996535 0.18178589 0.3082192
## 360 5184 hours 3.1081601 1.7629975 1.5854602 0.18032628 0.3219178
## 361 5196 hours 3.1586107 1.7772481 1.6040987 0.18227162 0.3150685
## 362 5208 hours 3.1152758 1.7650144 1.5894975 0.18077190 0.3287671
## 363 5220 hours 3.1654284 1.7791651 1.6079872 0.18270137 0.3219178
## 364 5232 hours 3.1229542 1.7671882 1.5937306 0.18125105 0.3356164
## 365 5244 hours 3.1742631 1.7816462 1.6121541 0.18319716 0.3287671
## 366 5256 hours 3.1295951 1.7690662 1.5973872 0.18169946 0.3424658
## 367 5268 hours 3.1793934 1.7830854 1.6149562 0.18356594 0.3356164
## 368 5280 hours 3.1336049 1.7701991 1.5998349 0.18203429 0.3493151
## 369 5292 hours 3.1837573 1.7843086 1.6175330 0.18390710 0.3424658
## 370 5304 hours 3.1369223 1.7711359 1.6022412 0.18233666 0.3561644
## 371 5316 hours 3.1877797 1.7854354 1.6202118 0.18423849 0.3493151
## 372 5328 hours 3.1428893 1.7728196 1.6051295 0.18268373 0.3630137
## 373 5340 hours 3.1899293 1.7860373 1.6218776 0.18441984 0.3561644
## 374 5352 hours 3.1429563 1.7728385 1.6062974 0.18281005 0.3698630
## 375 5364 hours 3.1916744 1.7865258 1.6234541 0.18459684 0.3630137
## 376 5376 hours 3.1452127 1.7734748 1.6077885 0.18296985 0.3767123
## 377 5388 hours 3.1948851 1.7874241 1.6250294 0.18475254 0.3698630
## 378 5400 hours 3.1502498 1.7748943 1.6099799 0.18316060 0.3835616
## 379 5412 hours 3.2006929 1.7890480 1.6272969 0.18495513 0.3767123
## 380 5424 hours 3.1545334 1.7761006 1.6114918 0.18329364 0.3904110
## 381 5436 hours 3.2035791 1.7898545 1.6279602 0.18501020 0.3835616
## 382 5448 hours 3.1621031 1.7782303 1.6132573 0.18345895 0.3972603
## 383 5460 hours 3.2115536 1.7920808 1.6297122 0.18517415 0.3904110
## 384 5472 hours 3.1723859 1.7811193 1.6154724 0.18369865 0.4041096
## 385 5484 hours 3.2224596 1.7951210 1.6321403 0.18542924 0.3972603
## 386 5496 hours 3.1808676 1.7834987 1.6171360 0.18388332 0.4109589
## 387 5508 hours 3.2296727 1.7971290 1.6333523 0.18556373 0.4041096
## 388 5520 hours 3.1880205 1.7855029 1.6183932 0.18401494 0.4178082
## 389 5532 hours 3.2368125 1.7991144 1.6345551 0.18568749 0.4109589
## 390 5544 hours 3.1956421 1.7876359 1.6196035 0.18416045 0.4246575
## 391 5556 hours 3.2461626 1.8017110 1.6362883 0.18589418 0.4178082
## 392 5568 hours 3.2050602 1.7902682 1.6211071 0.18433819 0.4315068
## 393 5580 hours 3.2540970 1.8039116 1.6374309 0.18602029 0.4246575
## 394 5592 hours 3.2134717 1.7926159 1.6220212 0.18443825 0.4383562
## 395 5604 hours 3.2604852 1.8056814 1.6377579 0.18605379 0.4315068
## 396 5616 hours 3.2216383 1.7948923 1.6227189 0.18451385 0.4452055
## 397 5628 hours 3.2688035 1.8079833 1.6384491 0.18613719 0.4383562
## 398 5640 hours 3.2326114 1.7979464 1.6238737 0.18466468 0.4520548
## 399 5652 hours 3.2810085 1.8113554 1.6400209 0.18633403 0.4452055
## 400 5664 hours 3.2434778 1.8009658 1.6250297 0.18481120 0.4589041
## 401 5676 hours 3.2920489 1.8144004 1.6411798 0.18648009 0.4520548
## 402 5688 hours 3.2533094 1.8036933 1.6258719 0.18491557 0.4657534
## 403 5700 hours 3.3018638 1.8171031 1.6420961 0.18658569 0.4589041
## 404 5712 hours 3.2647562 1.8068636 1.6273752 0.18508509 0.4726027
## 405 5724 hours 3.3145275 1.8205844 1.6437614 0.18676266 0.4657534
## 406 5736 hours 3.2775827 1.8104096 1.6290261 0.18526793 0.4794521
## 407 5748 hours 3.3285250 1.8244246 1.6454858 0.18695051 0.4726027
## 408 5760 hours 3.2906719 1.8140209 1.6304518 0.18541399 0.4863014
## 409 5772 hours 3.3403279 1.8276564 1.6462933 0.18701930 0.4794521
## 410 5784 hours 3.3014478 1.8169887 1.6312035 0.18547510 0.4931507
## 411 5796 hours 3.3541235 1.8314266 1.6476028 0.18716133 0.4863014
## 412 5808 hours 3.3119816 1.8198851 1.6317238 0.18552642 0.5000000
## 413 5820 hours 3.3663048 1.8347492 1.6483057 0.18725179 0.4931507
## 414 5832 hours 3.3223938 1.8227435 1.6318337 0.18555251 0.5068493
## 415 5844 hours 3.3776708 1.8378441 1.6487045 0.18730710 0.4931507
## 416 5856 hours 3.3320996 1.8254040 1.6312164 0.18549272 0.5068493
## 417 5868 hours 3.3891758 1.8409714 1.6484155 0.18729829 0.4931507
## 418 5880 hours 3.3417984 1.8280586 1.6303112 0.18541655 0.5068493
## 419 5892 hours 3.3985770 1.8435230 1.6474900 0.18722094 0.4931507
## 420 5904 hours 3.3488223 1.8299788 1.6288906 0.18527654 0.5068493
## 421 5916 hours 3.4052071 1.8453203 1.6459928 0.18707104 0.4931507
## 422 5928 hours 3.3532293 1.8311825 1.6268268 0.18507688 0.5068493
## 423 5940 hours 3.4101574 1.8466612 1.6441212 0.18689092 0.4931507
## 424 5952 hours 3.3583690 1.8325853 1.6267080 0.18509758 0.5068493
## 425 5964 hours 3.4156170 1.8481388 1.6438690 0.18689484 0.4931507
## 426 5976 hours 3.3605871 1.8331904 1.6250222 0.18493350 0.5068493
## 427 5988 hours 3.4168019 1.8484593 1.6419226 0.18669297 0.4931507
## 428 6000 hours 3.3589381 1.8327406 1.6228596 0.18469231 0.5068493
## 429 6012 hours 3.4152220 1.8480319 1.6397579 0.18645084 0.4931507
## 430 6024 hours 3.3577653 1.8324206 1.6204387 0.18442229 0.5068493
## 431 6036 hours 3.4158413 1.8481995 1.6378713 0.18625841 0.4931507
## 432 6048 hours 3.3572792 1.8322880 1.6188296 0.18424267 0.5068493
## 433 6060 hours 3.4152740 1.8480460 1.6361233 0.18606729 0.4931507
## 434 6072 hours 3.3562746 1.8320138 1.6166718 0.18400937 0.5068493
## 435 6084 hours 3.4165306 1.8483859 1.6345980 0.18591450 0.4931507
## 436 6096 hours 3.3573706 1.8323129 1.6150283 0.18383899 0.5068493
## 437 6108 hours 3.4167055 1.8484333 1.6325920 0.18569936 0.4931507
## 438 6120 hours 3.3571036 1.8322400 1.6118949 0.18347912 0.5068493
## 439 6132 hours 3.4165364 1.8483875 1.6294681 0.18533905 0.4931507
## 440 6144 hours 3.3581613 1.8325287 1.6091690 0.18314742 0.5068493
## 441 6156 hours 3.4170964 1.8485390 1.6267430 0.18500171 0.4931507
## 442 6168 hours 3.3583781 1.8325878 1.6063142 0.18280396 0.5068493
## 443 6180 hours 3.4156741 1.8481542 1.6235495 0.18461377 0.4931507
## 444 6192 hours 3.3564301 1.8320563 1.6033377 0.18244318 0.5068493
## 445 6204 hours 3.4145465 1.8478492 1.6210365 0.18430141 0.4931507
## 446 6216 hours 3.3564274 1.8320555 1.6004487 0.18209261 0.5068493
## 447 6228 hours 3.4138378 1.8476574 1.6179742 0.18393841 0.4931507
## 448 6240 hours 3.3544273 1.8315096 1.5968351 0.18166542 0.5068493
## 449 6252 hours 3.4104642 1.8467442 1.6141149 0.18350987 0.4931507
## 450 6264 hours 3.3496964 1.8302176 1.5926232 0.18120838 0.5068493
## 451 6276 hours 3.4076636 1.8459858 1.6101815 0.18310902 0.4931507
## 452 6288 hours 3.3448987 1.8289064 1.5882026 0.18073676 0.5068493
## 453 6300 hours 3.4021697 1.8444971 1.6058987 0.18265637 0.4931507
## 454 6312 hours 3.3416724 1.8280242 1.5847386 0.18037370 0.5068493
## 455 6324 hours 3.3991495 1.8436782 1.6026421 0.18230937 0.4931507
## 456 6336 hours 3.3377215 1.8269432 1.5815331 0.18002697 0.5068493
## 457 6348 hours 3.3953585 1.8426499 1.5994443 0.18196217 0.4931507
## 458 6360 hours 3.3337652 1.8258601 1.5785786 0.17971897 0.5068493
## 459 6372 hours 3.3919301 1.8417193 1.5966675 0.18168082 0.4931507
## 460 6384 hours 3.3314406 1.8252234 1.5755650 0.17941070 0.5068493
## 461 6396 hours 3.3909058 1.8414412 1.5939276 0.18140687 0.4931507
## 462 6408 hours 3.3302419 1.8248950 1.5727721 0.17912963 0.5068493
## 463 6420 hours 3.3891798 1.8409725 1.5910707 0.18109909 0.4931507
## 464 6432 hours 3.3247666 1.8233943 1.5684036 0.17862737 0.5068493
## 465 6444 hours 3.3850905 1.8398615 1.5872607 0.18066207 0.4931507
## 466 6456 hours 3.3211536 1.8224032 1.5644712 0.17817627 0.5068493
## 467 6468 hours 3.3818457 1.8389795 1.5837310 0.18025702 0.4931507
## 468 6480 hours 3.3199470 1.8220722 1.5615607 0.17784210 0.5068493
## 469 6492 hours 3.3808023 1.8386958 1.5809233 0.17993234 0.4931507
## 470 6504 hours 3.3187908 1.8217549 1.5586082 0.17749164 0.5068493
## 471 6516 hours 3.3797638 1.8384134 1.5781116 0.17959657 0.4931507
## 472 6528 hours 3.3167583 1.8211969 1.5556719 0.17714062 0.5068493
## 473 6540 hours 3.3781257 1.8379678 1.5753118 0.17926563 0.4931507
## 474 6552 hours 3.3146350 1.8206139 1.5522636 0.17673944 0.5068493
## 475 6564 hours 3.3772493 1.8377294 1.5722601 0.17889917 0.4931507
## 476 6576 hours 3.3138529 1.8203991 1.5492675 0.17638467 0.5068493
## 477 6588 hours 3.3769868 1.8376580 1.5691887 0.17853476 0.4931507
## 478 6600 hours 3.3126006 1.8200551 1.5458392 0.17599472 0.5068493
## 479 6612 hours 3.3771321 1.8376975 1.5661321 0.17817428 0.4931507
## 480 6624 hours 3.3111630 1.8196601 1.5423904 0.17559175 0.5068493
## 481 6636 hours 3.3774702 1.8377895 1.5631351 0.17783299 0.4931507
## 482 6648 hours 3.3126379 1.8200654 1.5402843 0.17536079 0.5068493
## 483 6660 hours 3.3812538 1.8388186 1.5611530 0.17763802 0.4931507
## 484 6672 hours 3.3134140 1.8202786 1.5377805 0.17508734 0.5068493
## 485 6684 hours 3.3827386 1.8392223 1.5587785 0.17737900 0.4931507
## 486 6696 hours 3.3136083 1.8203319 1.5351410 0.17478443 0.5068493
## 487 6708 hours 3.3837051 1.8394850 1.5564465 0.17710969 0.4931507
## 488 6720 hours 3.3134837 1.8202977 1.5326948 0.17450144 0.5068493
## 489 6732 hours 3.3850034 1.8398379 1.5549243 0.17693095 0.4931507
## 490 6744 hours 3.3137088 1.8203595 1.5311391 0.17431066 0.5068493
## 491 6756 hours 3.3839678 1.8395564 1.5533161 0.17672405 0.4931507
## 492 6768 hours 3.3129749 1.8201579 1.5296840 0.17411897 0.5068493
## 493 6780 hours 3.3834176 1.8394068 1.5518251 0.17652943 0.4931507
## 494 6792 hours 3.3124247 1.8200068 1.5278157 0.17387732 0.5068493
## 495 6804 hours 3.3842115 1.8396227 1.5502083 0.17631827 0.5000000
## 496 6816 hours 3.3126825 1.8200776 1.5261304 0.17365862 0.5136986
## 497 6828 hours 3.3848149 1.8397866 1.5468316 0.17590252 0.5068493
## 498 6840 hours 3.3127892 1.8201069 1.5225262 0.17322236 0.5205479
## 499 6852 hours 3.3865039 1.8402456 1.5442377 0.17558831 0.5136986
## 500 6864 hours 3.3152252 1.8207760 1.5201527 0.17293830 0.5273973
## 501 6876 hours 3.3904052 1.8413053 1.5418553 0.17529669 0.5136986
## 502 6888 hours 3.3191433 1.8218516 1.5181343 0.17268910 0.5273973
## 503 6900 hours 3.3958664 1.8427877 1.5404547 0.17512431 0.5205479
## 504 6912 hours 3.3244934 1.8233193 1.5167134 0.17251401 0.5342466
## 505 6924 hours 3.4015689 1.8443343 1.5386123 0.17490039 0.5273973
## 506 6936 hours 3.3296247 1.8247259 1.5144715 0.17223849 0.5410959
## 507 6948 hours 3.4062008 1.8455896 1.5363933 0.17464301 0.5342466
## 508 6960 hours 3.3325461 1.8255263 1.5118072 0.17192227 0.5479452
## 509 6972 hours 3.4099524 1.8466056 1.5339731 0.17435679 0.5410959
## 510 6984 hours 3.3373166 1.8268324 1.5097567 0.17168648 0.5547945
## 511 6996 hours 3.4202262 1.8493854 1.5343594 0.17438128 0.5479452
## 512 7008 hours 3.3473174 1.8295676 1.5100767 0.17170427 0.5616438
## 513 7020 hours 3.4325275 1.8527081 1.5352003 0.17444405 0.5479452
## 514 7032 hours 3.3601901 1.8330821 1.5110095 0.17178085 0.5616438
## 515 7044 hours 3.4471365 1.8566466 1.5365154 0.17455780 0.5479452
## 516 7056 hours 3.3761416 1.8374280 1.5125683 0.17192667 0.5616438
## 517 7068 hours 3.4628645 1.8608773 1.5376259 0.17465811 0.5479452
## 518 7080 hours 3.3915681 1.8416211 1.5137129 0.17203240 0.5616438
## 519 7092 hours 3.4812741 1.8658173 1.5399108 0.17489903 0.5479452
## 520 7104 hours 3.4101323 1.8466544 1.5152883 0.17218397 0.5616438
## 521 7116 hours 3.4998508 1.8707888 1.5417152 0.17507891 0.5479452
## 522 7128 hours 3.4304191 1.8521391 1.5177815 0.17241430 0.5616438
## 523 7140 hours 3.5210665 1.8764505 1.5443560 0.17532852 0.5547945
## 524 7152 hours 3.4504745 1.8575453 1.5200954 0.17261645 0.5684932
## 525 7164 hours 3.5424267 1.8821335 1.5470588 0.17557592 0.5616438
## 526 7176 hours 3.4723730 1.8634304 1.5227769 0.17285088 0.5753425
## 527 7188 hours 3.5650570 1.8881358 1.5495961 0.17579125 0.5684932
## 528 7200 hours 3.4950467 1.8695044 1.5253559 0.17307918 0.5821918
## 529 7212 hours 3.5885525 1.8943475 1.5520759 0.17601239 0.5753425
## 530 7224 hours 3.5180563 1.8756482 1.5278462 0.17330038 0.5890411
## 531 7236 hours 3.6125295 1.9006655 1.5544374 0.17621393 0.5821918
## 532 7248 hours 3.5419466 1.8820060 1.5302840 0.17350687 0.5958904
## 533 7260 hours 3.6372665 1.9071619 1.5575041 0.17649324 0.5890411
## 534 7272 hours 3.5656744 1.8882993 1.5329061 0.17373922 0.6027397
## 535 7284 hours 3.6617902 1.9135805 1.5603068 0.17674579 0.5958904
## 536 7296 hours 3.5886021 1.8943606 1.5348627 0.17389412 0.6095890
## 537 7308 hours 3.6872548 1.9202226 1.5635001 0.17706469 0.6027397
## 538 7320 hours 3.6127938 1.9007351 1.5378116 0.17418166 0.6164384
## 539 7332 hours 3.7119402 1.9266396 1.5666569 0.17739202 0.6095890
## 540 7344 hours 3.6368429 1.9070508 1.5409701 0.17450071 0.6232877
## 541 7356 hours 3.7370537 1.9331461 1.5698341 0.17771483 0.6164384
## 542 7368 hours 3.6608716 1.9133404 1.5439859 0.17479781 0.6301370
## 543 7380 hours 3.7627952 1.9397926 1.5734035 0.17807158 0.6232877
## 544 7392 hours 3.6869038 1.9201312 1.5479592 0.17520262 0.6369863
## 545 7404 hours 3.7885845 1.9464286 1.5771768 0.17846037 0.6301370
## 546 7416 hours 3.7113501 1.9264865 1.5508620 0.17548215 0.6438356
## 547 7428 hours 3.8151702 1.9532461 1.5809644 0.17884471 0.6369863
## 548 7440 hours 3.7364176 1.9329815 1.5538812 0.17578453 0.6506849
## 549 7452 hours 3.8413821 1.9599444 1.5841150 0.17916454 0.6438356
## 550 7464 hours 3.7617150 1.9395141 1.5564371 0.17603818 0.6575342
## 551 7476 hours 3.8718713 1.9677071 1.5874264 0.17953834 0.6506849
## 552 7488 hours 3.7907774 1.9469919 1.5599357 0.17644094 0.6643836
## 553 7500 hours 3.9024427 1.9754601 1.5911344 0.17997796 0.6575342
## 554 7512 hours 3.8211214 1.9547689 1.5640014 0.17692147 0.6712329
## 555 7524 hours 3.9336156 1.9833345 1.5946334 0.18039110 0.6643836
## 556 7536 hours 3.8501560 1.9621814 1.5671110 0.17727159 0.6780822
## 557 7548 hours 3.9638832 1.9909503 1.5979154 0.18076216 0.6712329
## 558 7560 hours 3.8788490 1.9694794 1.5694748 0.17753463 0.6849315
## 559 7572 hours 3.9918829 1.9979697 1.6001707 0.18101488 0.6780822
## 560 7584 hours 3.9065327 1.9764951 1.5718825 0.17780537 0.6917808
## 561 7596 hours 4.0281458 2.0070241 1.6035874 0.18145815 0.6849315
## 562 7608 hours 3.9421766 1.9854915 1.5753435 0.17825460 0.6986301
## 563 7620 hours 4.0687494 2.0171141 1.6074726 0.18199417 0.6917808
## 564 7632 hours 3.9847283 1.9961784 1.5801067 0.17890077 0.7054795
## 565 7644 hours 4.1093983 2.0271651 1.6117833 0.18258773 0.6986301
## 566 7656 hours 4.0248621 2.0062059 1.5842220 0.17946771 0.7123288
## 567 7668 hours 4.1526995 2.0378173 1.6165820 0.18326478 0.7054795
## 568 7680 hours 4.0670164 2.0166845 1.5887659 0.18011421 0.7123288
## 569 7692 hours 4.1965407 2.0485460 1.6213504 0.18393776 0.7054795
## 570 7704 hours 4.1101282 2.0273451 1.5937340 0.18080387 0.7123288
## 571 7716 hours 4.2459050 2.0605594 1.6270177 0.18476736 0.7054795
## 572 7728 hours 4.1581455 2.0391531 1.5987237 0.18155433 0.7123288
## 573 7740 hours 4.2934349 2.0720605 1.6319244 0.18549225 0.7054795
## 574 7752 hours 4.2044212 2.0504685 1.6033698 0.18225514 0.7191781
## 575 7764 hours 4.3447535 2.0844072 1.6368487 0.18625096 0.7123288
## 576 7776 hours 4.2549490 2.0627528 1.6080181 0.18298248 0.7191781
## 577 7788 hours 4.3971880 2.0969473 1.6419042 0.18701440 0.7123288
## 578 7800 hours 4.3067916 2.0752811 1.6128789 0.18372054 0.7191781
## 579 7812 hours 4.4441002 2.1081035 1.6464862 0.18767704 0.7123288
## 580 7824 hours 4.3549744 2.0868575 1.6182354 0.18445909 0.7191781
## 581 7836 hours 4.4943536 2.1199890 1.6523674 0.18846528 0.7123288
## 582 7848 hours 4.4046124 2.0987168 1.6237527 0.18520558 0.7191781
## 583 7860 hours 4.5474365 2.1324719 1.6579719 0.18925079 0.7123288
## 584 7872 hours 4.4532605 2.1102750 1.6284536 0.18591188 0.7191781
## 585 7884 hours 4.5941458 2.1433959 1.6623914 0.18990888 0.7123288
## 586 7896 hours 4.4971811 2.1206558 1.6317688 0.18645628 0.7260274
## 587 7908 hours 4.6397677 2.1540120 1.6658645 0.19048270 0.7191781
## 588 7920 hours 4.5420712 2.1312135 1.6358914 0.18711085 0.7328767
## 589 7932 hours 4.6899898 2.1656384 1.6706388 0.19124237 0.7260274
## 590 7944 hours 4.5931077 2.1431537 1.6412034 0.18792763 0.7397260
## 591 7956 hours 4.7409637 2.1773754 1.6757993 0.19203604 0.7328767
## 592 7968 hours 4.6413202 2.1543723 1.6457625 0.18864857 0.7465753
## 593 7980 hours 4.7946097 2.1896597 1.6819100 0.19295711 0.7397260
## 594 7992 hours 4.6950002 2.1667949 1.6521120 0.18959194 0.7534247
## 595 8004 hours 4.8541594 2.2032157 1.6888495 0.19400098 0.7465753
## 596 8016 hours 4.7537874 2.1803182 1.6588615 0.19061195 0.7534247
## 597 8028 hours 4.9162117 2.2172532 1.6961169 0.19509824 0.7465753
## 598 8040 hours 4.8153402 2.1943883 1.6660909 0.19170912 0.7534247
## 599 8052 hours 4.9785779 2.2312727 1.7037087 0.19623378 0.7465753
## 600 8064 hours 4.8772809 2.2084567 1.6738549 0.19286687 0.7534247
## 601 8076 hours 5.0385992 2.2446824 1.7110874 0.19733373 0.7465753
## 602 8088 hours 4.9364565 2.2218138 1.6809697 0.19393199 0.7534247
## 603 8100 hours 5.1008056 2.2584963 1.7183653 0.19843819 0.7465753
## 604 8112 hours 4.9977806 2.2355717 1.6881081 0.19502503 0.7534247
## 605 8124 hours 5.1643747 2.2725261 1.7256585 0.19956276 0.7465753
## 606 8136 hours 5.0609981 2.2496662 1.6955785 0.19616962 0.7534247
## 607 8148 hours 5.2276459 2.2864046 1.7333687 0.20072636 0.7465753
## 608 8160 hours 5.1236212 2.2635417 1.7030818 0.19731151 0.7534247
## 609 8172 hours 5.2953490 2.3011625 1.7420083 0.20202704 0.7465753
## 610 8184 hours 5.1912436 2.2784301 1.7114639 0.19858285 0.7534247
## 611 8196 hours 5.3651145 2.3162717 1.7505559 0.20333730 0.7465753
## 612 8208 hours 5.2609643 2.2936792 1.7201305 0.19989307 0.7534247
## 613 8220 hours 5.4362954 2.3315865 1.7593577 0.20466761 0.7465753
## 614 8232 hours 5.3308280 2.3088586 1.7286204 0.20118441 0.7534247
## 615 8244 hours 5.5067407 2.3466446 1.7678345 0.20597000 0.7465753
## 616 8256 hours 5.3997763 2.3237419 1.7365631 0.20243197 0.7534247
## 617 8268 hours 5.5699045 2.3600645 1.7746404 0.20704751 0.7465753
## 618 8280 hours 5.4634636 2.3374053 1.7437221 0.20354365 0.7534247
## 619 8292 hours 5.6352624 2.3738708 1.7831338 0.20827920 0.7465753
## 620 8304 hours 5.5271619 2.3509917 1.7518420 0.20473229 0.7534247
## 621 8316 hours 5.6986944 2.3871938 1.7916487 0.20950836 0.7465753
## 622 8328 hours 5.5896394 2.3642418 1.7601364 0.20593586 0.7534247
## 623 8340 hours 5.7562601 2.3992207 1.7999005 0.21065721 0.7465753
## 624 8352 hours 5.6415554 2.3751959 1.7672003 0.20691391 0.7534247
## 625 8364 hours 5.8119315 2.4107948 1.8068024 0.21164733 0.7465753
## 626 8376 hours 5.6959254 2.3866138 1.7736461 0.20784290 0.7534247
## 627 8388 hours 5.8655889 2.4218978 1.8129501 0.21251681 0.7465753
## 628 8400 hours 5.7476295 2.3974214 1.7791734 0.20863853 0.7534247
## 629 8412 hours 5.9173426 2.4325588 1.8185384 0.21332456 0.7465753
## 630 8424 hours 5.7982120 2.4079477 1.7844932 0.20941537 0.7534247
## 631 8436 hours 5.9685389 2.4430593 1.8246572 0.21418824 0.7465753
## 632 8448 hours 5.8502270 2.4187242 1.7905109 0.21026887 0.7534247
## 633 8460 hours 6.0249718 2.4545818 1.8309621 0.21510920 0.7465753
## 634 8472 hours 5.8981922 2.4286194 1.7950229 0.21093478 0.7534247
## 635 8484 hours 6.0722974 2.4642032 1.8352607 0.21574635 0.7465753
## 636 8496 hours 5.9405081 2.4373158 1.7997951 0.21157856 0.7534247
## 637 8508 hours 6.1185286 2.4735660 1.8399880 0.21641157 0.7465753
## 638 8520 hours 5.9889746 2.4472382 1.8043134 0.21222918 0.7534247
## 639 8532 hours 6.1631687 2.4825730 1.8443247 0.21700460 0.7465753
## 640 8544 hours 6.0306574 2.4557397 1.8085677 0.21278026 0.7534247
## 641 8556 hours 6.2074839 2.4914823 1.8490294 0.21761853 0.7465753
## 642 8568 hours 6.0735037 2.4644479 1.8136290 0.21343136 0.7534247
## 643 8580 hours 6.2491737 2.4998347 1.8536600 0.21821806 0.7465753
## 644 8592 hours 6.1090970 2.4716588 1.8178415 0.21392286 0.7534247
## 645 8604 hours 6.2879128 2.5075711 1.8587000 0.21882537 0.7465753
## 646 8616 hours 6.1481920 2.4795548 1.8226237 0.21451825 0.7534247
## 647 8628 hours 6.3258886 2.5151319 1.8634083 0.21939855 0.7465753
## 648 8640 hours 6.1808415 2.4861298 1.8259760 0.21491423 0.7534247
## 649 8652 hours 6.3563893 2.5211881 1.8666211 0.21977103 0.7465753
## 650 8664 hours 6.2096859 2.4919241 1.8292674 0.21530508 0.7534247
## 651 8676 hours 6.3892673 2.5277000 1.8707504 0.22026178 0.7465753
## 652 8688 hours 6.2480303 2.4996060 1.8341750 0.21593133 0.7534247
## 653 8700 hours 6.4276223 2.5352756 1.8753603 0.22084909 0.7465753
## 654 8712 hours 6.2842139 2.5068334 1.8382564 0.21646798 0.7534247
## 655 8724 hours 6.4648034 2.5425978 1.8799067 0.22144087 0.7465753
## 656 8736 hours 6.3169951 2.5133633 1.8420281 0.21693747 0.7534247
## 657 8748 hours 6.4955128 2.5486296 1.8834449 0.22184453 0.7465753
## 658 8760 hours 6.3498798 2.5198968 1.8455091 0.21735575 0.7534247

plot_cross_validation_metric(x,
                             metric = 'rmse',
                             rolling_window = 0.2)