As of 23 July 2020 the inshore run is 3,832,822 of which 2,304,922 is harvest, 1,527,900 is escapement and an additional 0 fish estimated to be between the fleet and the counting tower. As of 23 July 2020 (R-square for a five day late run = 0.97; Fig. 1). The 2020 pre-season forecast for Ugashik district calls for a total run of 4,670,000 sockeye.
The current projection for eight days late is 4,853,088 sockeye.
The current projection for seven days late is 4,636,812 sockeye.
The current projection for six days late is 4,462,146 sockeye.
The current projection for five days late is 4,308,401 sockeye.
The current projection for four days late is 4,187,208 sockeye.
The current projection for three days late is 4,100,341 sockeye.
The current projection for two days late is 3,978,684 sockeye.
Figure 1. Run to date (X-axis) regressed again final inshore run (y-axis). Red line indicates current run to date.
Figure 2. Total Run to date (black line) and forecasted total run given the minimum and maximum timing range used in this set of projections (red lines). (note: What is plotted here is catch + escapement with escapement lagged back to catch by estimated travel time between the fishing district and the escapement counting project. The regression model above includes estimated inriver abundance. These inriver estimates are not included in this graph.)
[Note: Hovering your mouse over data points will show data and year.]