Click Here“NYT: New Cases in last 14 days”

Click Here“EU Travel Restrictions”

On July 1, the European Union opened its borders to travellers from certain countries. Citizens from only two African countries are welcome: Morocco and Rwanda.

Americans are especially personnae non grata. But that’s another story.

What about Kenya? Do the data comparing Kenya and Rwanda really show that Rwanda is controlling the epidemic better than Kenya? What do the data show? Let’s do some comparative analyses.

Total Cases

The population of Kenya is 4.2 times that of Rwanda. The ratio of Kenya/Rwanda cases is 2.6.

Comments

The key metric for entry into the EU, is the number of new COVID-19 cases over the last 14 days per 100,000 inhabitants, close to or below the EU average of 16 on June 15, 2020.

Other variables are also evaluated.

  1. A stable or decreasing trend of new cases over this period in comparison to the previous 14 days. Neiter Rwanda nor Kenya meets this criterion. The trend of new daily cases is up in both countres, with a steeper slope in Kenya.

  2. Overall response to COVID-19, taking into account available information, including on aspects such as testing, surveillance, contact tracing, containment, treatment and reporting, as well as the reliability of the information and, if needed, the total average score for International Health Regulations (IHR).

  3. Reciprocity is also taken into account regularly and on a case-by-case basis.

  4. The “Welcome to Europe” list will be evalauted and revised as necessary, every two weeks.

There are other Covid-19 metrics that I have been working with including:

  1. Percentage tests that are positive. Five or fewer is the gold standard.

  2. The Rt Reproductivity Index. When it is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading. Tragically with the current explosion of new cases in the US, only 11 of 50 states meet this criterion.

Click Here“Rt Covid-19 Index”

Click Here“WHO-PAHO: COVID-19 Rate of Transmission”

This Shiny app uses the EpiEstim R package to calculate the Rt vaue.

Ridgeline plots

Click here“Ridgeline Plots”

Click here“More Ridgeline Plots”

Click here“Exploratory Data Analysis and Visualization”