Florida Counties: Not Sweet 16
Patrick Kelly
6/30/2020
Click Here“NYT: New Cases in last 14 days”
Click here“Covid by County”
Click Here“WHO-PAHO: COVID-19 Estimator”
Here is Florida
And here are the counties
Here are two facts:
The Donald insists that the Republican National Convention must take place in Florida. Another state move would be just too embarrasing.
On July 1, the European Union will exclude visitors from countries scoring 16 or less on the metric of:
the sum of new cases per 100,000 over the past 14 days
Since Duval Country has a current (and rising) value far greater than 16, is there any country in Florida that can meet this European behchmark?
To answer this question we must name the counties, find their estimated populations and covid-19 data.
The hunt is on.
Click Here“Florida Counties”
Current COVID-19 Data
Total Cases =568871
New Daily Cases =6329
Range of New Cases per 100,000 in past 14 Days = 166, 9446
Mean of New Cases per 100,000 in past 14 days = 808
Median of New Cases per 100,000 in past 14 days = 392
More comments
All of the metircs of new cases in the 7 counties are exploding upward. So the RNC might as well stick with DUVAL.
You pays your money and you takes your chances.
So grab your surfboard. Bigger and bigger waves are coming.
What about Rwanda?
Who would have predicted that as of July 1, 2020, Europe would open its doors to Rwandans, but not to US citizens? Do the data support this decision?
Even more comments
If the data are close to being accurate, Rwanda is sitting pretty, far below the benchmark of 16 for “new cases per 100,000 over the past 14 days”. There is essentially a flat curve for the last 4 months. But 101 new cases were reported on Jume 29. Could a second wave be starting?
Comments
Not even one Florida country reaches the European Union’s benchmark of 16 new cases per 100,00 in the past 14 days.
BREVARD County has the lowest score at 166. But its population is only 576808.
The choice of a convention venue depends on several criteria inclluding, adequate convention center, transportation, restaurants, and lodging.
DUVAL County (Jacksonville) has a populaton of 924,229 and a “new cases per 100,000 in the past 14 days” score" of 345. Let’s limit our search for an alternate site to counties with a population of more than 900,000.
18489, PINELLAS, 18660, 194, 215, 957875 County has the lowest benchmark score of 2020-08-15, pinellas, 18660, 194, 215, 957875. Let’s look at the trends in the 7 counties.