As of 23 July 2020 the inshore run is 24,270,397 of which 13,843,801 is harvest, 10,426,596 is escapement and an additional 0 fish estimated to be between the fleet and the counting towers (R-square for a four day late run = 1; Fig. 1). The 2020 pre-season forecast for the Naknake-Kvichak district calls for a total run of 19,970,000 sockeye.
The current projection for seven days late is 25,656,448 sockeye.
The current projection for six days late is 25,257,540 sockeye.
The current projection for five days late is 24,957,199 sockeye.
The current projection for four days late is 24,730,113 sockeye.
The current projection for three days late is 24,588,081 sockeye.
The current projection for two days late is 24,495,854 sockeye.
The current projection for one day late is 24,429,080 sockeye.
Figure 1. Total run (y-axis) regressed against run to date (x-axis). Red line indicates current run to date.
Figure 2. Total Run to date (black line) and forecasted total run given the minimum and maximum timing range used in this set of projections (red lines). (note: What is plotted here is catch + escapement with escapement lagged back to catch by estimated travel time between the fishing district and the escapement counting project. The regression model above includes estimated inriver abundance. These inriver estimates are not included in this graph.)
[Note: Hovering your mouse over data points will show data and year.]