Here is a review of Marquette Law School polling on when people think the coronavirus epidemic will be under control and things can return to normal. We have asked Wisconsin registered voters this question in March, May and June of 2020. All polls are state-wide samples of registered voters, with about 800 respondents per poll and a margin of error of about +/- 4.3 percentage points. Details of each survey and full methodology statement are available at https://law.marquette.edu/poll/category/results-and-data/

When will the epidemic be under control and things back to normal?

In March and May we asked “When do you think the coronavirus outbreak will be under control and things can get back to normal? By the end of May, by August, sometime in the fall, about a year from now or more than a year from now?”

In June we replaced “the end of May” with “It is under control now” but left the other options the same.

For this analysis we combine the “in about a year” and “more than a year” to simplify the number of response categories.

There have been some sharp changes from March to June.

In March the public was optimistic that the epidemic would be controlled by the end of May, or certainly by the end of August. Only 9 percent thought it would take a year or longer.

By early May that optimism was substantially reduced with just 18 percent saying coronavirus would be controlled by the end of May and 20 percent saying by the end of August. The percentage saying a year or more had quadrupled, to 36 percent, from 9 percent the month before.

By mid-June 12 percent said we already had the virus under control, and 10 percent said we would by the end of August. A majority, 53 percent now said it would be a year or more, almost 6 times the March percentage.

Interestingly the uncertainty about when the epidemic would be controlled has not varied, with “don’t know” responses remaining at 8 or 9 percent each month.

Table 1: When the epidemic will be under control by survey wave, March-June 2020, @MULawPolls of Wisconsin registered voters
Survey Dates End of May/Over now End of August Sometime next fall About a year or more Don’t know
3/24-29/20 44 27 11 9 8
5/3-7/20 18 20 15 36 9
6/14-18/20 12 10 16 53 9

When will the epidemic be under control by party identification

Partisanship powerfully structures belief about when the epidemic will be under control. Republicans have consistently expected a sooner return to normality while Democrats have seen a longer battle. But over the three months the gaps between the parties have widened.

In March, Republicans were twice as likely to see the virus controlled by the end of May than were Democrats, 58 percent to 30 percent. Likewise Democrats were just over twice as likely as Republicans to think the epidemic would last a year or more, by 12 percent to 5 percent.

In May these differences had increased, with Republicans six times as likely as Democrats to expect the coronavirus to be controlled by the end of May, 33 percent to 5 percent. Democrats were two and a half times more likely to see it persisting for a year or more, 51 percent to 20 percent.

By June, few people believed the epidemic was already under control, but 23 percent of Republicans thought so and one 1 percent of Democrats agreed, as astonishing ratio of 23 to 1. At the long end, 76 percent of Democrats expected it to take a year or more while 33 percent of Republicans thought so, a ratio of 2.3 to 1.

There has been an evolution in beliefs about the epidemic across all partisan groups. Republicans who believe the epidemic will be controlled by the end of August or sooner have declined from 79 to 57 to 39 percent from March to May to June. Likewise the percentage f Republicans seeing a year or more before returning to normal has risen from 5 to 20 to 33 percent.

The percentage of independents expecting normal conditions to return by August or sooner has fallen from 66 to 22 to 21 percent while those expecting it to take a year or more has climbed from 16 to 42 to 41 percent from March to June surveys.

Democrats, the most pessimistic groups have still evolved in their expectations, falling from 64 to 24 to 5 percent expecting an end by August or earlier. Democrats seeing a long campaign against the virus taking a year or more has climbed from 12 to 51 to 76 percent.

Table 2a, March only: When will the epidemic be over by party identification, @MULawPolls of Wisconsin registered voters
Party ID End of May/Over now End of August Sometime next fall About a year or more Don’t know
Republican 58 21 10 5 6
Independent 42 24 7 16 5
Democrat 30 34 14 12 10
Table 2b, May only: When will the epidemic be over by party identification, @MULawPolls of Wisconsin registered voters
Party ID End of May/Over now End of August Sometime next fall About a year or more Don’t know
Republican 33 24 13 20 9
Independent 11 11 18 42 15
Democrat 5 19 18 51 7
Table 2c, June only: When will the epidemic be over by party identification, @MULawPolls of Wisconsin registered voters
Party ID End of May/Over now End of August Sometime next fall About a year or more Don’t know
Republican 23 16 19 33 9
Independent 14 7 23 41 14
Democrat 1 4 12 76 6

When over by Trump overall job approval

As Donald Trump has argued for a quick end of the epidemic, saying it would fade out, or reopening could occur by Easter or that it was safe to reopen in June, his supporters have followed this argument and been much more optimistic about a speedy recovery while those who disapprove of how he has handled his job as president have been much more likely to see a long term struggle against coronavirus.

There are strong differences by approval, but also differences between those who strongly approve and those who only somewhat approval of the president. As with partisanship, there is a consistent trend across all levels of approval to see a longer epidemic as we moved from March to May to June. Still, by June only just under half of the presidents strongest supporters, 47 percent, still believed the virus would be controlled by the end of the summer or sooner. Still, one in five of these supporters, 22 percent, had by June come to see a year-long or longer outbreak.

Table 3a, March only: When will the epidemic be over by Trump Approval, @MULawPolls of Wisconsin registered voters
Trump Approval End of May/Over now End of August Sometime next fall About a year or more Don’t know
Strongly approve 64 18 6 3 8
Somewhat approve 47 31 13 7 2
Somewhat disapprove 46 35 9 8 2
Strongly disapprove 27 33 16 14 11
Table 3b, May only: When will the epidemic be over by Trump Approval, @MULawPolls of Wisconsin registered voters
Trump Approval End of May/Over now End of August Sometime next fall About a year or more Don’t know
Strongly approve 38 24 11 17 9
Somewhat approve 21 22 19 26 10
Somewhat disapprove 6 25 26 40 4
Strongly disapprove 4 18 17 56 6
Table 3c, June only: When will the epidemic be over by Trump Approval, @MULawPolls of Wisconsin registered voters
Trump Approval End of May/Over now End of August Sometime next fall About a year or more Don’t know
Strongly approve 31 16 21 22 10
Somewhat approve 12 16 19 47 7
Somewhat disapprove 1 10 30 49 10
Strongly disapprove 1 5 11 76 6