As of 23 July 2020 the inshore run is 12,612,309 of which 8,862,714 is harvest, 3,749,595 is escapement and an additional 0 fish estimated to be between the fleet and the counting towers or sonar. As of 23 July 2020 (R-square for a three day late run = 1; Fig. 1). The 2020 forecast for the Nushagak district predicts a total run of 12,630,000 sockeye.
The current projection for six days late is 13,142,464 sockeye.
The current projection for five days late is 13,014,702 sockeye.
The current projection for four days late is 12,908,008 sockeye.
The current projection for three days late is 12,812,220 sockeye.
The current projection for two days late is 12,764,354 sockeye.
The current projection for one day late is 12,722,949 sockeye.
The current projection for on time is 12,697,988 sockeye.
Figure 1. Run to date (X-axis) regressed again final inshore run (y-axis). Red line indicates current run to date.
Figure 2. Total Run to date (black line) and forecasted total run given the minimum and maximum timing range used in this set of projections (red lines). (note: What is plotted here is catch + escapement with escapement lagged back to catch by estimated travel time between the fishing district and the escapement counting project. The regression model above includes estimated inriver abundance. These inriver estimates are not included in this graph.)
[Note: Hovering your mouse over data points will show data and year.]