As of 23 July 2020 the inshore run is 14,996,715 of which 12,613,017 is harvest, 2,383,698 is escapement and an additional 0 fish estimated to be between the fleet and the counting tower. As of 23 July 2020 (R-square for a three days late run = 1; Fig. 1). The 2020 pre-season forecast for Egegik district calls for a total run of 10,750,000 sockeye.
The current projection for six days late is 15,618,028 sockeye.
The current projection for five days late is 15,451,173 sockeye.
The current projection for four days late is 15,327,588 sockeye.
The current projection for three days late is 15,243,006 sockeye.
The current projection for two days late is 15,185,499 sockeye.
The current projection for one day late is 15,136,636 sockeye.
The current projection for on time is 15,102,056 sockeye.
Figure 1. Run to date (X-axis) regressed again final inshore run (y-axis). Red line indicates current run to date.
Figure 2. Total Run to date (black line) and forecasted total run given the minimum and maximum timing range used in this set of projections (red lines). (note: What is plotted here is catch + escapement with escapement lagged back to catch by estimated travel time between the fishing district and the escapement counting project. The regression model above includes estimated inriver abundance. These inriver estimates are not included in this graph.)
[Note: Hovering your mouse over data points will show data and year.]