COVID-19: Oklahoma
Patrick Kelly
6/19/2020 (Update: July 25, 2020)
Click here“Reproductive Number”
Click here" Rt Math"
These are up-to-date values for Rt for Oklahoma through June 19, 2020, a key measure of how fast the virus is growing. It’s the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If Rt is above 1.0, the virus will spread quickly. When Rt is below 1.0, the virus will stop spreading.
How does the new model work?
In the simplest terms, it searches for the most likely curve of Rt that produced the new cases per day that we observe. It does this through some neat (and powerful!) math. In more complex terms: we assume a seed number of people and a curve of Rt over the history of the pandemic, we then distribute those cases into the future, using a known delay distribution between infection and positive report. We then scale and add noise based on known testing volumes via a negative binomial with an exposure parameter for a given day to recover an observed series. We plan on publishing our code soon, so if you’re so inclined you’ll be able to run it, too. Bring it!