##Naknek/Kvichak District
As of 8 July 2019 the inshore run is 4,485,928. At this point in the run there is a decent relationship between run to date and final run size (R-square = 0.77, Slope = 1.29; Fig. 1). The UW guys seem to think you can make forecast. By my calculations you’ll need to have a district run timing of 6 days late.
The current projection for six days late is 12,312,460 sockeye.
The current projection for five days late is 11,317,290 sockeye.
The current projection for four days late is 10,214,632 sockeye.
The current projection for three days late is 9,277,525 sockeye.
The current projection for two days late is 8,506,541 sockeye.
## `geom_smooth()` using formula 'y ~ x'Figure 1. Inshore return to date and total run. Red line indicates current run to date.