Problem → H0 → DoE → Assess → Conclusion & Recommendation
Ask what?
Why? Why we do what we do? and motive?
Key is not just coming up with hypotheses, rather frame the problem.
Hypothesis is the statement of solution to an specific problem, that can be tested, hence approved or disapproved by evidence (data).
Fallacies
- mix shift aka simpson paradox - selection bias
- regression to the mean
- recency, sesonal effect? … experiment just on one day… could it be breaks? off season? peak? experiment more. - information bias… more information is not always better.. determine key measure(s) then ride with it
First treatment, what is the treatment? why? Distinguish from control?
Power and Randomize is import, but not at the top of list…