EXCERSISE ON LOGISTIC REGRESSION MODEL with dataset = Melanoma

Import data from library(‘MASS’)

library('MASS')
dat = Melanoma
dat
##     time status sex age year thickness ulcer
## 1     10      3   1  76 1972      6.76     1
## 2     30      3   1  56 1968      0.65     0
## 3     35      2   1  41 1977      1.34     0
## 4     99      3   0  71 1968      2.90     0
## 5    185      1   1  52 1965     12.08     1
## 6    204      1   1  28 1971      4.84     1
## 7    210      1   1  77 1972      5.16     1
## 8    232      3   0  60 1974      3.22     1
## 9    232      1   1  49 1968     12.88     1
## 10   279      1   0  68 1971      7.41     1
## 11   295      1   0  53 1969      4.19     1
## 12   355      3   0  64 1972      0.16     1
## 13   386      1   0  68 1965      3.87     1
## 14   426      1   1  63 1970      4.84     1
## 15   469      1   0  14 1969      2.42     1
## 16   493      3   1  72 1971     12.56     1
## 17   529      1   1  46 1971      5.80     1
## 18   621      1   1  72 1972      7.06     1
## 19   629      1   1  95 1968      5.48     1
## 20   659      1   1  54 1972      7.73     1
## 21   667      1   0  89 1968     13.85     1
## 22   718      1   1  25 1967      2.34     1
## 23   752      1   1  37 1973      4.19     1
## 24   779      1   1  43 1967      4.04     1
## 25   793      1   1  68 1970      4.84     1
## 26   817      1   0  67 1966      0.32     0
## 27   826      3   0  86 1965      8.54     1
## 28   833      1   0  56 1971      2.58     1
## 29   858      1   0  16 1967      3.56     0
## 30   869      1   0  42 1965      3.54     0
## 31   872      1   0  65 1968      0.97     0
## 32   967      1   1  52 1970      4.83     1
## 33   977      1   1  58 1967      1.62     1
## 34   982      1   0  60 1970      6.44     1
## 35  1041      1   1  68 1967     14.66     0
## 36  1055      1   0  75 1967      2.58     1
## 37  1062      1   1  19 1966      3.87     1
## 38  1075      1   1  66 1971      3.54     1
## 39  1156      1   0  56 1970      1.34     1
## 40  1228      1   1  46 1973      2.24     1
## 41  1252      1   0  58 1971      3.87     1
## 42  1271      1   0  74 1971      3.54     1
## 43  1312      1   0  65 1970     17.42     1
## 44  1427      3   1  64 1972      1.29     0
## 45  1435      1   1  27 1969      3.22     0
## 46  1499      2   1  73 1973      1.29     0
## 47  1506      1   1  56 1970      4.51     1
## 48  1508      2   1  63 1973      8.38     1
## 49  1510      2   0  69 1973      1.94     0
## 50  1512      2   0  77 1973      0.16     0
## 51  1516      1   1  80 1968      2.58     1
## 52  1525      3   0  76 1970      1.29     1
## 53  1542      2   0  65 1973      0.16     0
## 54  1548      1   0  61 1972      1.62     0
## 55  1557      2   0  26 1973      1.29     0
## 56  1560      1   0  57 1973      2.10     0
## 57  1563      2   0  45 1973      0.32     0
## 58  1584      1   1  31 1970      0.81     0
## 59  1605      2   0  36 1973      1.13     0
## 60  1621      1   0  46 1972      5.16     1
## 61  1627      2   0  43 1973      1.62     0
## 62  1634      2   0  68 1973      1.37     0
## 63  1641      2   1  57 1973      0.24     0
## 64  1641      2   0  57 1973      0.81     0
## 65  1648      2   0  55 1973      1.29     0
## 66  1652      2   0  58 1973      1.29     0
## 67  1654      2   1  20 1973      0.97     0
## 68  1654      2   0  67 1973      1.13     0
## 69  1667      1   0  44 1971      5.80     1
## 70  1678      2   0  59 1973      1.29     0
## 71  1685      2   0  32 1973      0.48     0
## 72  1690      1   1  83 1971      1.62     0
## 73  1710      2   0  55 1973      2.26     0
## 74  1710      2   1  15 1973      0.58     0
## 75  1726      1   0  58 1970      0.97     1
## 76  1745      2   0  47 1973      2.58     1
## 77  1762      2   0  54 1973      0.81     0
## 78  1779      2   1  55 1973      3.54     1
## 79  1787      2   1  38 1973      0.97     0
## 80  1787      2   0  41 1973      1.78     1
## 81  1793      2   0  56 1973      1.94     0
## 82  1804      2   0  48 1973      1.29     0
## 83  1812      2   1  44 1973      3.22     1
## 84  1836      2   0  70 1972      1.53     0
## 85  1839      2   0  40 1972      1.29     0
## 86  1839      2   1  53 1972      1.62     1
## 87  1854      2   0  65 1972      1.62     1
## 88  1856      2   1  54 1972      0.32     0
## 89  1860      3   1  71 1969      4.84     1
## 90  1864      2   0  49 1972      1.29     0
## 91  1899      2   0  55 1972      0.97     0
## 92  1914      2   0  69 1972      3.06     0
## 93  1919      2   1  83 1972      3.54     0
## 94  1920      2   1  60 1972      1.62     1
## 95  1927      2   1  40 1972      2.58     1
## 96  1933      1   0  77 1972      1.94     0
## 97  1942      2   0  35 1972      0.81     0
## 98  1955      2   0  46 1972      7.73     1
## 99  1956      2   0  34 1972      0.97     0
## 100 1958      2   0  69 1972     12.88     0
## 101 1963      2   0  60 1972      2.58     0
## 102 1970      2   1  84 1972      4.09     1
## 103 2005      2   0  66 1972      0.64     0
## 104 2007      2   1  56 1972      0.97     0
## 105 2011      2   0  75 1972      3.22     1
## 106 2024      2   0  36 1972      1.62     0
## 107 2028      2   1  52 1972      3.87     1
## 108 2038      2   0  58 1972      0.32     1
## 109 2056      2   0  39 1972      0.32     0
## 110 2059      2   1  68 1972      3.22     1
## 111 2061      1   1  71 1968      2.26     0
## 112 2062      1   0  52 1965      3.06     0
## 113 2075      2   1  55 1972      2.58     1
## 114 2085      3   0  66 1970      0.65     0
## 115 2102      2   1  35 1972      1.13     0
## 116 2103      1   1  44 1966      0.81     0
## 117 2104      2   0  72 1972      0.97     0
## 118 2108      1   0  58 1969      1.76     1
## 119 2112      2   0  54 1972      1.94     1
## 120 2150      2   0  33 1972      0.65     0
## 121 2156      2   0  45 1972      0.97     0
## 122 2165      2   1  62 1972      5.64     0
## 123 2209      2   0  72 1971      9.66     0
## 124 2227      2   0  51 1971      0.10     0
## 125 2227      2   1  77 1971      5.48     1
## 126 2256      1   0  43 1971      2.26     1
## 127 2264      2   0  65 1971      4.83     1
## 128 2339      2   0  63 1971      0.97     0
## 129 2361      2   1  60 1971      0.97     0
## 130 2387      2   0  50 1971      5.16     1
## 131 2388      1   1  40 1966      0.81     0
## 132 2403      2   0  67 1971      2.90     1
## 133 2426      2   0  69 1971      3.87     0
## 134 2426      2   0  74 1971      1.94     1
## 135 2431      2   0  49 1971      0.16     0
## 136 2460      2   0  47 1971      0.64     0
## 137 2467      1   0  42 1965      2.26     1
## 138 2492      2   0  54 1971      1.45     0
## 139 2493      2   1  72 1971      4.82     1
## 140 2521      2   0  45 1971      1.29     1
## 141 2542      2   1  67 1971      7.89     1
## 142 2559      2   0  48 1970      0.81     1
## 143 2565      1   1  34 1970      3.54     1
## 144 2570      2   0  44 1970      1.29     0
## 145 2660      2   0  31 1970      0.64     0
## 146 2666      2   0  42 1970      3.22     1
## 147 2676      2   0  24 1970      1.45     1
## 148 2738      2   0  58 1970      0.48     0
## 149 2782      1   1  78 1969      1.94     0
## 150 2787      2   1  62 1970      0.16     0
## 151 2984      2   1  70 1969      0.16     0
## 152 3032      2   0  35 1969      1.29     0
## 153 3040      2   0  61 1969      1.94     0
## 154 3042      1   0  54 1967      3.54     1
## 155 3067      2   0  29 1969      0.81     0
## 156 3079      2   1  64 1969      0.65     0
## 157 3101      2   1  47 1969      7.09     0
## 158 3144      2   1  62 1969      0.16     0
## 159 3152      2   0  32 1969      1.62     0
## 160 3154      3   1  49 1969      1.62     0
## 161 3180      2   0  25 1969      1.29     0
## 162 3182      3   1  49 1966      6.12     0
## 163 3185      2   0  64 1969      0.48     0
## 164 3199      2   0  36 1969      0.64     0
## 165 3228      2   0  58 1969      3.22     1
## 166 3229      2   0  37 1969      1.94     0
## 167 3278      2   1  54 1969      2.58     0
## 168 3297      2   0  61 1968      2.58     1
## 169 3328      2   1  31 1968      0.81     0
## 170 3330      2   1  61 1968      0.81     1
## 171 3338      1   0  60 1967      3.22     1
## 172 3383      2   0  43 1968      0.32     0
## 173 3384      2   0  68 1968      3.22     1
## 174 3385      2   0   4 1968      2.74     0
## 175 3388      2   1  60 1968      4.84     1
## 176 3402      2   1  50 1968      1.62     0
## 177 3441      2   0  20 1968      0.65     0
## 178 3458      3   0  54 1967      1.45     0
## 179 3459      2   0  29 1968      0.65     0
## 180 3459      2   1  56 1968      1.29     1
## 181 3476      2   0  60 1968      1.62     0
## 182 3523      2   0  46 1968      3.54     0
## 183 3667      2   0  42 1967      3.22     0
## 184 3695      2   0  34 1967      0.65     0
## 185 3695      2   0  56 1967      1.03     0
## 186 3776      2   1  12 1967      7.09     1
## 187 3776      2   0  21 1967      1.29     1
## 188 3830      2   1  46 1967      0.65     0
## 189 3856      2   0  49 1967      1.78     0
## 190 3872      2   0  35 1967     12.24     1
## 191 3909      2   1  42 1967      8.06     1
## 192 3968      2   0  47 1967      0.81     0
## 193 4001      2   0  69 1967      2.10     0
## 194 4103      2   0  52 1966      3.87     0
## 195 4119      2   1  52 1966      0.65     0
## 196 4124      2   0  30 1966      1.94     1
## 197 4207      2   1  22 1966      0.65     0
## 198 4310      2   1  55 1966      2.10     0
## 199 4390      2   0  26 1965      1.94     1
## 200 4479      2   0  19 1965      1.13     1
## 201 4492      2   1  29 1965      7.06     1
## 202 4668      2   0  40 1965      6.12     0
## 203 4688      2   0  42 1965      0.48     0
## 204 4926      2   0  50 1964      2.26     0
## 205 5565      2   0  41 1962      2.90     0

Consider model: ulcer ~ time + status + sex + age + year + thickness

attach(dat)
m = glm(ulcer~time+status+sex+age+year+thickness)
summary(m)
## 
## Call:
## glm(formula = ulcer ~ time + status + sex + age + year + thickness)
## 
## Deviance Residuals: 
##     Min       1Q   Median       3Q      Max  
## -1.3558  -0.3018  -0.2103   0.4013   0.8430  
## 
## Coefficients:
##               Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
## (Intercept)  1.629e+01  2.999e+01   0.543   0.5876    
## time        -6.429e-05  3.780e-05  -1.701   0.0906 .  
## status      -1.288e-01  6.368e-02  -2.023   0.0444 *  
## sex          6.982e-02  6.491e-02   1.076   0.2834    
## age          4.640e-04  1.992e-03   0.233   0.8161    
## year        -7.971e-03  1.522e-02  -0.524   0.6010    
## thickness    5.709e-02  1.154e-02   4.949 1.59e-06 ***
## ---
## Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
## 
## (Dispersion parameter for gaussian family taken to be 0.1948241)
## 
##     Null deviance: 50.488  on 204  degrees of freedom
## Residual deviance: 38.575  on 198  degrees of freedom
## AIC: 255.33
## 
## Number of Fisher Scoring iterations: 2

SUMMARY:

  • beta1 = -6.429e-05 -> OR1 = 0.9999357

(If time increases, ulcer probability ~ 0 decreases 99% OR ulcer probability ~ 1 decreases 1%)

  • beta2 = -1.288e-01 -> OR2 = 0.8791498

(If status increases, ulcer probability ~ 0 decreases 88% OR ulcer probability ~ 1 decreases 12%)

  • beta3 = 6.982e-02 -> OR3 = 1.0723151

(If sex = 1, ulcer probability ~ 1 increases 100.7%)

  • beta4 = 4.640e-04 -> OR4 = 1.0004641

(If age increases, ulcer probability ~ 1 increases 100%)

  • beta5 = -7.971e-03 -> OR5 = 1.0080029

(If year increases, ulcer probability ~ 0 decreases 100%)

  • beta6 = 5.709e-02 -> OR6 = 1.0587511

(If thickness increases, ulcer probability ~ 1 increases 105%)

=> All the variables above have approximate impacts on ‘ulcer’.

=> Logistic regression model: ulcer = 16.29 - 0.0000643.time - 0.129.status + 0.0698.sex + 0.000464.age - 0.00797.year + 0.057.thickness

Example:

  • With the first observation in dataset, we have ‘ulcer’ = 0.675901 ~ 1.
  • With the second observation, we have ‘ulcer’ = 0.348945 ~ 0.

CONCLUSION

  • Thickness factor has the greatest impact on ulcer ~ 1.