Site permanente para atualização dos dados para o Brasil

Juntando com o do WordBank

Resultados por Continentes.

## Response [https://opendata.ecdc.europa.eu/covid19/casedistribution/csv/]
##   Date: 2020-05-16 05:42
##   Status: 200
##   Content-Type: application/octet-stream
##   Size: 1 MB
## <ON DISK>  C:\Users\profe\AppData\Local\Temp\RtmpqMVGXY\file385047b71089.csv

A primeira questĂŁo Ă© que o nĂșmero de casos em valor absoluto, pouco ou nada se refere ao verdadeiro poder destrutivo do contĂĄgio em cada paĂ­s. Afinal, o nĂșmero da população importa para termos uma ideia da importĂąncia relativa de cada pessoa para aquele paĂ­s, e sua probabilidade de contĂĄgio.

Apenas em termos ilustrativos, os dois mapas abaixo representam em termos absolutos e termos relativos o imapcto da COVID19

Evolução da COVID19 pelo mundo

## Loading required package: sp
## ### Welcome to rworldmap ###
## For a short introduction type :   vignette('rworldmap')
## 134 codes from your data successfully matched countries in the map
## 76 codes from your data failed to match with a country code in the map
## 109 codes from the map weren't represented in your data

Agora em termos relativos

## 134 codes from your data successfully matched countries in the map
## 76 codes from your data failed to match with a country code in the map
## 109 codes from the map weren't represented in your data

A taxa de crescimento deve obedecer o mesmo padrão do exercício anterior. Qual o percentual da população que estå de fato afetada por este virus.

SĂŁo duas bases de dados. A primeira da ECDC fonte da UniĂŁo Europeia.

## [1] "Argentina vs Brasil" "7121"                "353"                
## [4] "202918"              "13993"

##             [,1] [,2]
## 2020-02-26     1    0
## 2020-03-01     1    0
## 2020-03-05     1    0
## 2020-03-06     5    0
## 2020-03-07     5    0
## 2020-03-09    12    0
## 2020-03-11     9    0
## 2020-03-12    18    0
## 2020-03-13    25    0
## 2020-03-14    21    0
## 2020-03-15    23    0
## 2020-03-16    79    0
## 2020-03-17    34    0
## 2020-03-18    57    1
## 2020-03-19   137    3
## 2020-03-20   193    2
## 2020-03-21   283    5
## 2020-03-22   224    7
## 2020-03-23   418    7
## 2020-03-24   345    9
## 2020-03-25   310   12
## 2020-03-26   232   11
## 2020-03-27   482   20
## 2020-03-28   502   15
## 2020-03-29   487   22
## 2020-03-30   352   22
## 2020-03-31   323   23
## 2020-04-01  1138   42
## 2020-04-02  1119   40
## 2020-04-03  1074   58
## 2020-04-04  1146   60
## 2020-04-05  1222   73
## 2020-04-06   852   54
## 2020-04-07   926   67
## 2020-04-08  1661  114
## 2020-04-09  2210  133
## 2020-04-10  1930  141
## 2020-04-11  1781  115
## 2020-04-12  1089   68
## 2020-04-13  1442   99
## 2020-04-14  1261  105
## 2020-04-15  1832  204
## 2020-04-16  3058  204
## 2020-04-17  2105  188
## 2020-04-18  3257  217
## 2020-04-19  2917  206
## 2020-04-20  2055  115
## 2020-04-21  1927  113
## 2020-04-22  2498  166
## 2020-04-23  2678  165
## 2020-04-24  3735  407
## 2020-04-25  3503  357
## 2020-04-26  5514  346
## 2020-04-27  3379  189
## 2020-04-28  4613  338
## 2020-04-29  5385  474
## 2020-04-30  6276  449
## 2020-05-01  7218  435
## 2020-05-02  6209  428
## 2020-05-03  4970  421
## 2020-05-04  4588  275
## 2020-05-05  6633  296
## 2020-05-06  6935  600
## 2020-05-07 10503  615
## 2020-05-08  9888  610
## 2020-05-09 10222  751
## 2020-05-10 10611  730
## 2020-05-11  6760  496
## 2020-05-12  5632  396
## 2020-05-13  9258  881
## 2020-05-14 11385  749
## 2020-05-15 13944  844
##            [,1] [,2]
## 2020-03-04    1    0
## 2020-03-06    1    0
## 2020-03-07    6    0
## 2020-03-08    1    1
## 2020-03-09    3    0
## 2020-03-11    7    0
## 2020-03-13   12    0
## 2020-03-14    3    1
## 2020-03-15   11    0
## 2020-03-16   11    0
## 2020-03-17    9    0
## 2020-03-18   14    0
## 2020-03-19   18    0
## 2020-03-20   31    1
## 2020-03-21   30    0
## 2020-03-22   67    1
## 2020-03-23   41    0
## 2020-03-24   35    0
## 2020-03-25   86    2
## 2020-03-26  115    2
## 2020-03-27   87    4
## 2020-03-28  101    5
## 2020-03-29   55    2
## 2020-03-30   75    1
## 2020-03-31  146    4
## 2020-04-02  167    7
## 2020-04-04  132    3
## 2020-04-05  186    6
## 2020-04-06  103    3
## 2020-04-07   74    7
## 2020-04-08   87    7
## 2020-04-09   80    5
## 2020-04-10   99   14
## 2020-04-11   81    3
## 2020-04-12  162    7
## 2020-04-13   66    6
## 2020-04-14   69    3
## 2020-04-15  160    7
## 2020-04-17  128    6
## 2020-04-18   98    7
## 2020-04-19  170   10
## 2020-04-20  102    2
## 2020-04-21   90    8
## 2020-04-22  112    9
## 2020-04-23  144    8
## 2020-04-24  147    6
## 2020-04-26  344   18
## 2020-04-28  223   11
## 2020-04-29  124   10
## 2020-04-30  158    7
## 2020-05-01  143    4
## 2020-05-02  104    7
## 2020-05-03  149   12
## 2020-05-04  102    9
## 2020-05-05  104   14
## 2020-05-06  133    4
## 2020-05-07  188    9
## 2020-05-08  163    9
## 2020-05-09  240   11
## 2020-05-10  165    7
## 2020-05-11   13    0
## 2020-05-12  245    5
## 2020-05-13  529   14
## 2020-05-14  316   10
## 2020-05-15  255   24
## Registered S3 method overwritten by 'quantmod':
##   method            from
##   as.zoo.data.frame zoo
## Registered S3 methods overwritten by 'forecast':
##   method             from    
##   fitted.fracdiff    fracdiff
##   residuals.fracdiff fracdiff

##                [,1]     [,2]
## 2020-05-14 42.41135 2.790171
## 2020-05-15 51.94412 3.144065

Colocando no modelo

Resultados

Para os paĂ­ses com o pior nĂ­vel.

##  [1] "United States"      "Russian Federation" "United Kingdom"    
##  [4] "Italy"              "Brazil"             "Germany"           
##  [7] "Turkey"             "France"             "Iran"              
## [10] "China"

Para o Brasil temos a seguinte configuração

##  [1] "United States"  "Russia"         "United Kingdom" "Italy"         
##  [5] "Brazil"         "Germany"        "Turkey"         "France"        
##  [9] "Iran"           "China"
##  [1] "United States"  "United Kingdom" "Italy"          "France"        
##  [5] "Brazil"         "Belgium"        "Germany"        "Iran"          
##  [9] "Netherlands"    "Canada"

Para o Cearå temos a seguinte configuração

Analisando o comportamento desde o primeiro contĂĄgio

Atualizando o modelo de contĂĄgio e mortes

Plotando a letalidade média

Agora analisando a partir dos primeiros 100 contĂĄgios

Simulando efeitos de quarentena no Brasil

##  [1] "United States"  "Russia"         "United Kingdom" "Italy"         
##  [5] "Brazil"         "Germany"        "Turkey"         "France"        
##  [9] "Iran"           "China"

Analisando por Estados

## Warning: package 'tmaptools' was built under R version 3.6.3
## Warning: This manual palette can handle a maximum of 15 values. You have
## supplied 16.
## Warning: Removed 47 row(s) containing missing values (geom_path).

## Warning: This manual palette can handle a maximum of 15 values. You have
## supplied 16.

## Warning: Removed 47 row(s) containing missing values (geom_path).

Mapas

Casos

Casos

Mortes

Casos

Quarentena por estados, simulando os resultado para cada ente-federativo. Simulando os resultados para pico de contĂĄgio e etc.

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Se for citar este estudo utilize a seguinte referĂȘncia. (???)