Introduction

The United States government response to COVID-19 has been rocky at best compared to other countries and even individual states. This is mainly due to the fact that President Trump has not taken responsibility for the country, and instead put it upon state Governors. This document is an analysis of COVID-19 Stay-at-Home orders and social distancing compliance in the United States, specifying four comparisions of a total of eight states. The comparisons will be ordered as follows: North Carolina and Georgia, Kentucky and Tennessee, Alabama and Louisiana, and Maine and New Hampshire. The time frame of this data is the time of the state’s first case (generally beginning of March 2020), up until May 1st, 2020.

All states that I chose to compare between have similar population sizes and their state House, Senate, and 2016 election results were all Republican. I hypothesize that states that have all other Republican affiliations as detailed in my first map and have Republican Governors would not be as quick to issue Stay-at-Home orders than those with Democratic Governors and therefore would have higher case rates. Of states that are Republican from the 2016 election, State House, and State Senate, but whose affiliation changes with Governor (one state is Republican and one is Democratic), I expect that the Republican states will have been more hesitant to proclaim a Stay-at-Home order statewide. I also hypothesize that the these states will have higher COVID-19 cases due to earlier inaction, except when there is an underlying issue that can be discussed.

Some obvious disclaimers and aspects of this data I am not looking into but more than likely affect how people respond to this include the population that lives in rural areas of the states, how rural the state in general is, and how quickly the virus got there. One part of data regarding COVID-19 that I am also not accounting for as it is not as readily available or tracked is how many tests were being conducted for the populations in different areas, and who was being allowed to be tested as each state has different requirements. Coronavirus is highly contagious and can be very prevelant in all types of populations while being asymptomatic which has no doubt worsened the spread, as seen by South Korean data. The US, along with many other countries, will most likely never know what the total number of cases are in a couple years when this is all over as not everyone is being tested.

Data

Tableau Maps

The map below, created in Tableau, shows multiple aspects of states political affiliations. The colors are based off of how each state voted overall in the 2016 Presidential Elections (this is not indicitve of popular vote or amount of votes). When hovering over a state, it also shows the current Governor’s political title, and whether the House and Senate is majority Republican or Democrat in that state.

This second interactive map shows the spread of COVID-19 throughout the mainland United States.

My libraries I used in this data project:

My data that I will primarily be using for my graphs and discussions comes from the New York Times open data set on COVID-19, found on github and updated daily.

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North Carolina (D) and Georgia (R)





North Carolina and Georgia both had their first cases of confirmed COVID-19 within a day of each other, Georgia’s being on March 2nd, 2020 and North Carolina’s on March 3rd, 2020. As can be seen in the Interactive map below (on the right), North Carolina’s cases that tested positive per day slowly doubled about every day to every other day (hover over the NC line to see how much the cases jumped day per day). Georgia on the other hand diverged greatly from NC’s positive cases almost immediately, and by March 19th,2020 was already in the 100s, compared to NC’s 34.

While Georgia obviously had more positive tested cases appearing than North Carolina, not accounting for any asymptomatic carriers, North Carolina was the first to implement a state of emergency on March 10th, 2020. In his speech where he declared the state of emergency for Georgia on March 14th, 2020, Governor Kemp (R) of Georgia stated, “Based on President Trump’s emergency declaration, today I will declare a public health emergency for the State of Georgia,” (https://gov.georgia.gov/press-releases/2020-03-16/kemp-declares-public-health-state-emergency). This insinuates that despite the sudden growth of the virus happening in Georgia up to that date, he waited until President Trump declared his own state of emergency.

North Carolina was also first to declare other executive orders such as closing of K-12 schools, restaurants, and bars. All of these orders were implemented at least two to six days ahead of Georgia’s governor, although some cities in Georgia reacted more quickly. Atlanta’s Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms declared a stay-at-home order on March 23rd, 2020, nearly two weeks before Georgia’s Governor did on April 2nd, 2020. This is in contrast to North Carolina where cities in NC were rolling out Stay-at-Home orders by March 20th, 2020, and where the governor issued a Stay-at-Home order March 27th, 2020, one day after Wake and Mecklenburg county.

When looking at mobility data of the general population of the two states, however, both ranked in the low scores, receiving an “F” from Unacast, a company that has been tracking data and putting it together to form scorecards of each state and county in the US. North Carolina’s social distancing map can be found here https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?view=state&fips=37 while Georgia’s can be found here https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?view=state&fips=13.

As of May 1st, 2020 North Carolina’s total case count is 10,922 and Georgia’s total case count is 26,436, both of which are still on an upward or steady trend.

North Carolina issues a statewide stay at home order: March 27th, 2020
First Case: March 3rd, 2020
State of Emergency: March 10th, 2020
Cases on March 27th: 783
Cases on April 2nd: 1,857
Cases on May 1st: 10,922
Unacast Social Distancing Grade: F
Wake County: D
Mecklengburg County: D

Georgia issues a statewide stay at home order: April 2nd, 2020
First Case: March 2nd, 2020
State of Emergency: March 14th, 2020
Cases on March 27th: 2,198
Cases on April 2nd: 5,444
Cases on May 1st: 26,436
Unacast Social Distancing Grade: F
Fulton County: C-

Kentucky (D) and Tennessee (R)





As can be garnered from the graphs below, Tennessee has experienced more cases than Kentucky. Kentucky’s first case was documented as March 6th, 2020, while Tennessee’s was one day earlier on March 5th, 2020. Surprisingly, Kentucky’s Governor declared a state of emergency on the same day as their first case, preparing for the worst so they could get any supplies needed. Tennessee did not declare a state of emergency until March 12th, 2020.

There were restrictions put in place throughout the month in both Kentucky and Tennessee, with Kentucky issuing a statewide stay-at-home order on March 26th, 2020 when their cases were at 248. On the 26th, Tennessee’s cases were at 981 positives, however their Governor did not declare a statewide Stay-at-Home order until March 30th, 2020. By that date, Tennessee’s positive cases had more than doubled to 1,721.

When looking at the actual population and how they’ve reacted to social distancing and stay-at-home orders, Kentucky as a whole received a D- from Unacast (https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?view=county&fips=21111) and Tennessee received an F (https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?view=state&fips=47). Similarly to the Georgia and North Carolina mapping respective of a Democratic vs Republican Governor, the major hotspot county in Kentucky, Jefferson County, received a slightly better grade of a D. In Tennessee, Davidson and Shelby Counties have the highest totals and have grades of D+ and F, respectively.

As of May 1st, 2020 Kentucky’s total case count is 4,879 and Tennessee’s total case count is 11,853, both of which are still on an upward or steady trend.

Kentucky issued a statewide stay at home order: March 26th, 2020
First Case: March 6th, 2020
State of Emergency: March 6th, 2020
Cases on March 26th: 248
Cases on March 30th: 480
Cases on May 1st: 4879
Unacast Social Distancing Grade: D-
Jefferson County: D

Tennessee issued a statewide stay at home order: March 30th, 2020
First Case: March 5th, 2020
State of Emergency: March 12th, 2020
Cases on March 26th: 981
Cases on March 30th: 1,721
Cases on May 1st: 11853
Unacast Social Distancing Grade: F

Louisiana (D) and Alabama (R)





The first case between the two states came from Louisiana on March 9th, 2020. Two days later, their Democratic Governor declared a state of emergency. Alabama on the other hand had their first positive case on March 13th, 2020, followed by a state of emergency declaration by their Republican Governor the same day. Louisiana’s cases started to ramp up immediately, and some experts are hypothesizing that it spread so quickly and abundantly due to Marti Gras celebrations. Their governor has said in reports that if she had known about the extent of the virus and its contagious-ness, she would have cancelled Marti Gras. However, as Marti Gras celebrations did go on for the day of and the weeks after with more than one million people travelling there to celebrate, there is a good chance many people got infected and spread the virus from there in waves. Louisiana’s governor issued a statewide Stay-at-Home order on March 22nd, 2020.

Alabama, in contrast, saw a fairly slow start to the spread of the virus in terms of tested positive cases, and in opposition to their quick draw of state of emergency, their Governor did not issue a statewide Stay-at-Home order until nearly a month later, on April 3rd, 2020.

Social distancing-wise, Louisiana scored better than Alabama, with a state score of D- (https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?view=state&fips=22), compared to their F (https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?view=state&fips=01). This in itself is an average and does not tell us as much, but when looking at the hotspot counties in each state, a big difference appears. In Alabama, their two main counties with the highest number of COVID cases received an F and a D-. Louisiana’s two main parishes, Orleans and Jefferson, received grades of C+ and D, respectively.

There is another look that needs to be taken in Louisiana, however. According to NPR data, 7 out of 10 COVID patients that die in the state are African American, despite the fact that African Americans only make up 32% of the population there (https://www.npr.org/2020/04/12/832682489/7-out-of-10-patients-killed-by-covid-19-in-louisiana-were-african-american). In the Orleans Parish, people who are African American or Black make up nearly 60% of the population, and in the Jefferson Parish, they make up 26.5% of the population. This is in stark contrast to Alabama, where Mobile County is only 36% Black or African American, and Jefferson County is only 42.7% Black or African American. The map below shows COVID-19 deaths from February 20th, 2020 until May 1st, 2020 with population data by county behind it. The deeper the purple, the higher population of Black or African American people in the county. The two places with the highest death rates and infection rates are both of the counties highlighted.

Surgeon General Jerome Adams has stated that, “..we do not think people of color are biologically or genetically predisposed to get COVID-19. There is nothing inherently wrong with you. But they are socially predisposed to coronavirus exposure and to have a higher incidence of the very diseases that put you at risk for severe complications of coronavirus”. This is an important distinction to make in regards to numbers of cases in Louisiana as, especially in the Orleans Parish, inequality and lower socioeconomic status results in worse health, and thus the higher the incidence and impact of different diseases. Furthermore, people that are consistently discriminated against tend to have more “lower class jobs” and as a result have more exposure to people as “essential services”, but whom may not get first testing or needed protective equipment.

Alabama issued statewide stay at home order: April 3rd, 2020
First Case: March 13th, 2020
State of Emergency: March 13th, 2020
Cases on March 22nd: 157
Cases on April 3rd: 1,270
Cases on May 1st: 7,294
Unacast Social Distancing Grade: F
Mobile County: F
Jefferson County: D-

Louisiana issued statewide stay at home order: March 22nd, 2020
First Case: March 9th, 2020
State of Emergency: March 11th, 2020
Cases on March 22nd: 837
Cases on April 3rd: 10,297
Cases on May 1st: 28,711
Unacast Social Distancing Grade: D-
Orleans Parish: C+ Jefferson Parish: D

Maine (D) and New Hampshire (R)





New Hampshire’s first positive tested case was on March 2nd, 2020, while Maine’s first case was March 12th, 2020. New Hampshire’s Republican Governor issued a state of emergency on March 13th, 2020, 11 days after the first case, while Maine’s Democratic Governor issued a state of emergency on March 15th, 2020, 3 days after their first case. Looking at the interactive chart above, you can see how Maine and New Hampshire both grew at very similar, rapid rates for the first fifteen days or so from March 15th, 2020 to April 1st, 2020. New Hampshire was the first to issue a full Stay-at-Home order on March 26th, 2020, compared to Maine’s March 31st, 2020, however. Beginning after April 1st, 2020, New Hampshires rates started to grow higher, the positive cases each day growing by at least twenty on top of what was already there. Maine’s cases were also continuing to rise but following April 1st, 2020, their positive cases per day grew by adding 15-30 new cases a day on average.

The main difference that can be seen, other than the argument that Maine is further north and more isolated than New Hampshire, is that people in Maine were taking social distancing and Stay-at-Home orders more seriously. This can be reflected in their Unacast scores where Maine received a grade of C- (https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?view=state&fips=23) and New Hampshire received a grade of D (https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard?view=state&fips=33). Looking at Cumberland County, Maine’s largest hotspot, their grade moved down to a D+, while New Hampshires two largest hotspot Counties of Hillsborough and Rockingham received a D and an F, respectively.

Maine issued statewide stay at home order: March 31st, 2020
First Case: March 12th, 2020
State of Emergency: March 15th, 2020
Cases on March 26th: 155
Cases on March 31st: 303
Cases on May 1st: 1,123
Unacast Social Distancing Grade: C-
Cumberland County: D+

New Hampshire issued statewide stay at home order: March 26th, 2020
First Case: March 2nd, 2020
State of Emergency: March 13th, 2020
Cases on March 26th: 158
Cases on March 31st: 367
Cases on May 1st: 2,310
Unacast Social Distancing Grade: D
Hillsborough County: D Rockingham County: F

Conclusion

My hypothesis that Republican Governor States would be more hesitant to proclaim Stay-at-Home orders compared to Democratic Govenor State’s was proved within all four of my state sets looked at. In each case, the state with the Democratic Governor - North Carolina, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Maine - all issued statewide Stay-at-Home orders closer to the date of the first positive tested case than their Republican Governor State counterparts. I have two general hypotheses for why this might be - the first is that Republican Governors are more likely to look out for economy as a business, and not as much the worker as an individual. Historically, Republicans tend to be more conservative with the economy, and tend to think more capitalistically and about what different effects things may have on the stock market than the individual human. Thus, I believe they were more hesitant with ordering Stay-at-Home orders as they were thinking more about the economy. My second hypothesis is that Republicans are more likely to listen to Trump and want to stay on his “good side” since he has a history of only providing favors to those that praise him and follow his every whim and order.

In conclusion, state’s whose Governor’s reacted sooner and placed Stay-at-Home orders more quickly to the date of their first positive case, and have better Unacast scores are those that usually have the lower case rates. They’re also more likely to have a Democratic govenor as seen in my four examples. The obvious exclusion to this is Louisiana who had outlying factors in such ways as Marti Gras celebrations and different socio-economic status issues.