Flattening COVID-19 curve in sub-Saharan Africa (Working File Do Not Circulate)

(Last updated on 2020-08-20)

How does the COVID-19 curves look like in sub-Saharan African countries?

Hover over each figure to see values and more options.

See data sources and methods at the end.

Data: 48 sub-Saharan African countries + South Korea & Switzerland as comparison countries

1. Latest snapshot by country, as of 2020-08-20

2. Curve by country, grouped by the latest level of cumulative incidence rate

  • Y-axis: The number of new cases per 100,000 population (7-day rolliing average).
  • X-axis: Date.

Among 13 countries with cumulative incidence rate above 100 per 100,000 population

Among 24 countries with cumulative incidence rate between 20-100 per 100,000 population

Among 9 countries with cumulative incidence rate between 5-20 per 100,000 population

Among 4 countries with cumulative incidence rate below 5 per 100,000 population

Among select four countries

METHODS

Data
1. All COVID-19 data (i.e., cumulative confirmed cases and deaths by day) come from JHU/CSSE. Accessed on 2020-08-20.
2. All data on country population come from UN World Population Prospects 2019 Revision. Accessed on April 18, 2020.

Measures The number of new confirmed cases on each date was calculated based on the difference between cumulative numbers over two consecutive days. Then, a seven-day rolling average was calculated, hereinafter referred to as the smoothed number of new confirmed cases. Then, the smoothed number was divided by the total population in the country: the smoothed number of new confirmed cases per 100,000 population.

  • The first wave was defined to start when the cumulative incidence rate exceeds one per 100,000 population. The smoothed number of new confirmed cases at the start of the first wave varies by country, but it averages around 0.5 per 100,000.
  • The peak date of the wave was the date when the smoothed number of new confirmed cases per 100,000 population was at its height.
  • The date entering the stable phase was when the smoothed number of new confirmed cases per 100,000 population was less than the number on the start date of the wave.

COVID-mortality may be a more comparable indicator to understand the full extent of the epidemic, given considerably different testing strategies and testing rates. However, countries are currently at different stages of the curve, and comparison of mortality data would be possible once most countries are in a similar phase of the epidemic (i.e., well in the the stable phase).

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