COVID-19 Presentation

Toby Huang
April 5, 2020

Description of the Situation

For an overview of the ongoing pandemic, please see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019-20_coronavirus_pandemic.

  • The virus started in Wuhan, Hubei province, China.
  • The US has surpassed Italy and China with the most number of cases.
  • The growth curve still exponential outside of Asia (R_0 > 1).

Description of the Data

The Johns Hopkins Center for Systems Science and Engineering (CSSE) updates the daily snapshot reports for each country. Here is a summary of the most recent data:

suppressMessages(library(dplyr))
data <- read.csv('04-04-2020.csv')
data <- select(data, Country_Region, Confirmed, Deaths) %>%
  group_by(Country_Region) %>%
  summarise_all(sum) %>%
  arrange(desc(Confirmed))
head(as.data.frame(data), 8)

  Country_Region Confirmed Deaths
1             US    308850   8407
2          Spain    126168  11947
3          Italy    124632  15362
4        Germany     96092   1444
5         France     90848   7574
6          China     82543   3330
7           Iran     55743   3452
8 United Kingdom     42477   4320

How was the model generated?

I used a linear model to predict the number of deaths from the number of confirmed cases.


Call:
lm(formula = Deaths ~ Confirmed, data = data)

Residuals:
    Min      1Q  Median      3Q     Max 
-6319.9   -66.2   -45.1   -42.4  9393.9 

Coefficients:
            Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)    
(Intercept) 42.40140   79.06541   0.536    0.592    
Confirmed    0.04755    0.00267  17.807   <2e-16 ***
---
Signif. codes:  0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1

Residual standard error: 1037 on 179 degrees of freedom
Multiple R-squared:  0.6392,    Adjusted R-squared:  0.6372 
F-statistic: 317.1 on 1 and 179 DF,  p-value: < 2.2e-16

Instructions to use the Shiny App

The Shiny App is located at https://toby-huang.shinyapps.io/COVID-19/

  1. Move the slider to input the number of confirmed cases in the country or region of interest.
  2. Observe the predicted number of deaths on the bottom right.
  3. Check “Show/Hide Model” to show or hide the linear model.

The code for the Shiny App is found at https://github.com/tobywashere/COVID-19