Data assembled by The New York Times downloaded from https://github.com/nytimes/covid-19-data. Death rate in MI downloaded from here also from CDC here. Rmd file to generate this is in https://github.com/piquelab/progress-covid-19. The plots are similar to those reported earlier by https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest.

Last update: 2020-05-02

Deaths in MI compared to NY and CA (log-scale)

Deaths in MI compared to NY and CA (linear scale)

Average Daily New Deaths in MI compared to NY and CA

Tick marks on the right side represent the daily rates for each of the 10 top causes of death in Michigan if the rate was constant across the full year. The top and bottom horizontal lines represent the daily rates if all the pneumonia and influeza related deaths were concentrated in 120 days or 30 days for the full year using 2018 Michigan data. Note that not all pneumonias are caused by viral or flu infections (all ICD-10 codes J10-J18 aggregated together). The middle line is the approximated treshold (~7.2% of all deaths adjusted by the average flu casualty rate at the 12 weak of the year) that would be used to declare a flu epidemic by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) mortality surveillance data. Current US rates through March 26, 2020, 8.2% of the deaths occurring during the week ending March 21, 2020 (week 12) were due to P&I. This percentage is above the epidemic threshold of 7.2% for week 12.

Cases in Michigan compared to NY and CA