About
Background
In this dashboard, you will see an estimation of total Personal Protective Equipment (PPE), test kits and ventilators need based on confirmed COVID-19 patient case growth from Jan 22nd to Apr 18th at the county level.
“About” is an introductory section as you see here.
“Accumulated COVID-19 Cases”: shows the current confirmed COVID-19 cases at county level, raw data from USAFacts.
“Total PPE Need”: PPEs include droplet mask/surgical mask, N95 mask, gloves, gown, goggles, blood pressure cuff and stethoscope, pulse oximeter, Ambu bag, sani-wipes. We are breaking down the PPE into total PPE need, N95 mask need, droplet mask need, goggle need, wipes, bp-cuffs, and so on, please find them under the map panel of Total PPE Need. Total PPE is the sum of all the PPE categories
“Total Ventilator Need”: Assumes each critical care patient needs a ventilator during their length of stay.
“Total Test Kit Need”: Assumes 14% of tested cases result in a positive finding. This can change from county to county, so total test kits needed is calculated as the accumulated confirmed COVID-19 cases in the county divided by the assumed average positive test rate.
Fig1. A few rates from testing positive rate to critical care rate we used in the model through the convid19 patient flow.
PPE Need Model
The input data is the accumulated confirmed number of COVID-19 cases at county level from Jan 22nd to Apr 18th.To compute and update the underlying input data please visit and run CovidCareMap’s Jupyter notebook. The accumulated COVID-19 cases exclude recovered cases as well as deaths (The raw data taken from USAFacts. Note that running this notebook on different days will produce different results as it will use the latest data. We took in the newly added cases per day for PPE needs estimation.)
The PPEs are consumed through the COVID-19 patient flow that has shown in the diagram below.
Fig2. PPE needs through COVID-19 patient flow. Credit - Abi Baldridge, Northwestern Medicine.
In order to make the estimation, we assumed:
- 14% of tested cases result in a positive finding. This can change from county to county.
- 80% of the confirmed positive cases will have very mild symptoms and only need home care; while the remaining 20% of confirmed cases will end up needing hospitalization;
- 25% of hospitalized patients need critical/ICU-level care. However, one limitation of this model is that not all 25% of these patients will proceed directly to the ICU, approximately 15% of patients who end in the ICU will have transferred there from in-patient care. For simplicity, we assume 25% of hospitalized patients will need critical level care.
75% of hospitalized patients will only need support and in patient care and will recover and be discharged in 7 to 10 days.
We assume a hospitalized patient receives 10.6 room visits from doctors, nurses, and other providers per day in general in-patient care; but twice of room visits will be required for critical care patients unless PPE is running really low and such room visits are constrained
Each ICU patient needs a ventilator during their stay;
- A patient spends 7 days on average in general in-patient care;
A patient spends 14 days on average in critical care (ICU).
Model Outputs
County-level total PPE needs estimation from the current confirmed case from Jan 22nd to Apr 18th, 2020
What have we found now
A confirmed COV19 patient may need to consume around 80 - 110 PPE that includes droplet mask/surgical masks, N95 masks, gloves, gowns, goggles, blood pressure cuff and stethoscopes, pulse oximeter, Ambu bag, sani-wipes. See the raw data (in GeoJSON format) updated on CovidCareMap GitHub repo. For detail PPE type needs, ventilators and test kits burns, please see the interactive maps.
A total ventilators of 35,237 are needed up to Apr. 18th based on the model estimation with 725,303 confirmed COVID-19 cases through USAFacts. Ideally, at this level of confirmed cases 18,893,507 of N95 masks should be ready for health providers to access at nation wise to save lives. Our current estimation til Apr 18th shows, a total of 5,168,324 tests should have been done in the states. However, the total of 3,723,634 tests have been tracked through Center for Systens Science and Engineering of Johns Hopkins University in the states until Apr. 19th