Documentation & Data

Reproducible documentation for this work is available in this GitHub repository.

Note: All data have been randomly transformed using the original admissions data in order to obfuscate protected GSU data while allowing sensible trends in seasonality and cyclicity that reasonably resemble actual admissions data.

Dynamic Reporting

This report is programmed in R, Markdown, HTML, and CSS to provide a flexible template that reacts and updates dynamically when introduced to new data or filtered to show different colleges. All characters in boldface indicate reactive variables which change in accordance with the properties of the data.

See the reproducible documentation provided in the above hyperlink to view the underlying code.

Interactive Graphics

While all tables were compiled with HTML and offer some interactivity, each data visualization was created using R package ggplot2 and JavaScript library plotly, allowing both the visual advantage of the big picture and the rich granularity of traditional tabular data.

Admissions Over Time

Betweem FY 2006 and FY 2020, the School of Policy Studies has, on average, received 784 applications, enrolled or maintained 213 graduate students, and maintained a yield rate of 50.9% each year.

Enrollment Over Time

Between FY 2006 and FY 2020, the School of Policy Studies has, on average, enrolled 194 new graduate students, comprising a new student yield rate of 46.3% each year. In FY 2020, 25 graduate students continued studies (10.8%) and 206 new students enrolled (89.2%).

Among newly enrolled graduate students, there is a positive trend with a linear model coefficient of 3.121, while continuing graduate students, shows a negative trend with a linear model coefficient of -0.054.

New Enrollment Over Time

Official graduate-level enrollment as defined by the Office of Institutional Effectiveness (OIE) includes solely Masters and Doctoral degree-seeking students and excludes certificate-seekers, non-degree students in graduate-level courses, and transient students. Notably, unlike OIE-defined enrollment, the following excludes cross-registered students.

The following summary enrollment data at the School of Policy Studies are reported to the Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) each academic term.

FY 2021 Forecasts

In FY 2020, the School of Policy Studies received 1,000 applications for graduate-level programs, with 565 accepted applicants, 237 new or continuing enrollees, and a college-wide yield rate of 41.9%.

Fall Term Forecasts

Between calendar years 2005 and 2019 in the Fall academic term (FY 2006 to FY 2020), the School of Policy Studies received an average of 643 applications for graduate-level programs, comprising an average of 81.9% of total fiscal year enrollment.

In calendar year 2019 (FY 2020) in the Fall academic term, the School of Policy Studies received 836 applications for graduate-level programs, comprising 83.6% of total fiscal year enrollment.

Spring Term Forecasts

Between calendar years 2006 and 2020 in the Spring academic term (FY 2006 to FY 2020), the School of Policy Studies received an average of 98 applications for graduate-level programs, comprising an average of 12.8% of total fiscal year enrollment.

In calendar year 2020 (FY 2020) in the Spring academic term, the School of Policy Studies received 87 applications for graduate-level programs, comprising 8.70% of total fiscal year enrollment.

Summer Term Forecasts

Between calendar years 2005 and 2019 in the Summer academic term (FY 2006 to FY 2020), the School of Policy Studies received an average of 42 applications for graduate-level programs, comprising an average of 5.31% of total fiscal year enrollment.

In calendar year 2019 (FY 2020) in the Summer academic term, the School of Policy Studies received 77 applications for graduate-level programs, comprising 7.70% of total fiscal year enrollment.

Seasonal & Cyclic Forecasts

Accounting for seasonality and cylicity across terms between FY 2006 and FY 2020, the School of Policy Studies received an average of 261 applications for graduate-level programs during each academic term.

The following autogenerated ARIMA forecasting predicts total applications by each term for FY 2021 and FY 2022, albeit accounting for cylicity and seasonality.

FY 2021 New Enrollment

In FY 2019 and FY 2020, the School of Policy Studies enrolled 233 and 230, respectively, averaging 232 degree-seeking, graduate-level students over both fiscal years.

Increasing this rolling average by 3% yields a total annual recommendation of 238 new or continuing enrollees.

Adjusted for targets, FY 2006 through FY 2021 indicate a positive trend with a coefficient of 3.251.

New Enrollment by Term

In FY 2019, the School of Policy Studies enrolled or maintained 233 degree-seeking, graduate-level students. Specifcally, in Summer 2018, Fall 2018, and Spring 2019 it enrolled or retained 26, 177, and 30 students, respectively.

In FY 2020, it enrolled or maintained 230 degree-seeking, graduate-level students. Specifcally, in Summer 2019, Fall 2019, and Spring 2020 it enrolled or retained 30, 165, and 35 students, respectively.

On average, across both fiscal years,, the Summer, Fall, and Spring semesters contributed 29 (12.1%), 176 (73.9%), and 33 (14.0%) students to total enrollment, respecitvely.

New Enrollment by Program

During FY 2019 and FY 2020, the School of Policy Studies averaged 12.1%, 73.9%, and 14.0% contributions to official graduate-level enrollment in the Summer, Fall, and Spring terms, respectively.

Applying a 3% increase to individual School of Policy Studies programs, the following calculates and provides recommended enrollment by both program and semester for FY 2021.

Schools & Offices

Contact The Graduate School’s Graduate Admissions at Georgia State University:

• Hours: Monday-Friday, 8:30 a.m. to 5:15 p.m.
• Phone: (404) 413-2444
• Email: gradapply@gsu.edu
• Location: Sparks Hall 200

Contact the Office of Institutional Effectiveness at Georgia State University:

• Phone: (404) 413-2601
• Location: 1 Park Place South, Ste 1001

Report Author

Contact Jamison R. Crawford, Institutional Research Associate:

• Phone: (404) 413-1404
• Email: jcrawford52@gsu.edu

Contributors

Contact Lita M. Malveaux, Director of Graduate Admissions:

• Phone: (404) 413-2559
• Email: lmalveaux@gsu.edu

ARIMA Model Accuracy

The optimal forecasting ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) models were automatically generated using a Hyndman-Khandakar (2008) algorithm that employs unit root tests, minimizes additive errors via Akaike’s Information Criterion or AICc, (1998), and calculates maximum likelihood estimation based on n intervals per the School of Policy Studies’s available historical data.

The accuracy of ARIMA models is measured using the following:

• ME: Mean Error
• RMSE: Root Mean Squared Error
• MAE: Mean Absolute Error
• MPE: Mean Percentage Error
• MAPE: Mean Absolute Percentage Error
• MASE: Mean Absolute Scaled Error

The following provides accuracy measures for each ARIMA model in order of appearance (see Model).