Introduction

The following document shows an analysis of the data associated with the coronavirus pandemic (Covid19).

The analysis is divided into two parts, the first comprises general graphs of the data and then a numerical simulation is performed using the logistic growth model (LGM) in order to forecast the possible total number of cases.

Data Repository by Johns Hopkins CSSE

Terms used

Recovery ratio

The proportion of people recovered from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

\[RecoveryRatio (RR) = \frac{Recovered}{Confirmed}\]

Case Fatality ratio

Case fatality rate, also called case fatality ratio, in epidemiology, the proportion of people who die from a specified disease among all individuals diagnosed with the disease over a certain period of time.

https://www.britannica.com/science/case-fatality-rate

\[Case Fatality Ratio (CFR) = \frac{Deaths}{Confirmed}\]

Logistic Growth Model (LGM)

Clark (2011) propose a new empirical model based on logistic growth models.

A nonlinear model formula including variables and parameters.

\[ProjectedCases = \frac{(K * t ^ n)}{(a + t ^ n)}\]

Where:

Cases = Projected Case
K = Carrying capacity
n = Hyperbolic exponent
a = Constant
t = Time

The best-fit nonlineal model is obtained by an iterative least-squared method.

The logistic growth model was used to determine the progression of the disease in certain countries.

There are certain countries that are included in this analysis and where the model was not used essentially because the model fails.

Projected - Confirmed Cases Ratio

Assuming that the total number of projected cases corresponds to the maximum number of cases that would occur in a given country, the projected - confirmed cases ratio is calculated using the following expression.

\[ProjectedConfirmedCases Ratio = 100 - (100 * \frac{(max(Projected Case) - max(Confirmed))}{ max(Projected Case)}\]

Global Case

Average Cases (Last three days)

Global Case Summary

Country Cases

China

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 83443.89 784.54 106.36 0.00
a 80030.79 39541.29 2.02 0.05
n 3.87 0.17 22.53 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
2856.78 TRUE 0 -570.42 1148.84 1157.29 473347590 58
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 548 1.04 546.96
2 643 15.29 627.71
3 920 73.54 846.46
4 1406 223.81 1182.19
5 2075 529.41 1545.59
6 2877 1066.08 1810.92
7 5509 1917.30 3591.70
8 6087 3167.31 2919.69
9 8141 4891.80 3249.20
10 9802 7146.98 2655.02
11 11891 9958.79 1932.21
12 16630 13314.71 3315.29
13 19716 17160.70 2555.30
14 23707 21404.71 2302.29
15 27440 25926.59 1513.41
16 30587 30592.33 -5.33
17 34110 35269.17 -1159.17
18 36814 39838.57 -3024.57
19 39829 44204.80 -4375.80
20 42354 48298.66 -5944.66
21 44386 52077.00 -7691.00
22 44759 55519.42 -10760.42
23 59895 58623.58 1271.42
24 66358 61400.21 4957.79
25 68413 63868.72 4544.28
26 70513 66053.44 4459.56
27 72434 67980.96 4453.04
28 74211 69678.13 4532.87
29 74619 71170.83 3448.17
30 75077 72483.21 2593.79
31 75550 73637.30 1912.70
32 77001 74652.88 2348.12
33 77022 75547.50 1474.50
34 77241 76336.60 904.40
35 77754 77033.70 720.30
36 78166 77650.57 515.43
37 78600 78197.42 402.58
38 78928 78683.11 244.89
39 79356 79115.32 240.68
40 79932 79500.69 431.31
41 80136 79844.97 291.03
42 80261 80153.15 107.85
43 80386 80429.56 -43.56
44 80537 80677.96 -140.96
45 80690 80901.59 -211.59
46 80770 81103.32 -333.32
47 80823 81285.63 -462.63
48 80860 81450.67 -590.67
49 80887 81600.34 -713.34
50 80921 81736.32 -815.32
51 80932 81860.05 -928.05
52 80945 81972.82 -1027.82
53 80977 82075.78 -1098.78
54 81003 82169.90 -1166.90
55 81033 82256.10 -1223.10
56 81058 82335.13 -1277.13
57 81102 82407.71 -1305.71
58 81156 82474.46 -1318.46
59 81250 82535.91 -1285.91
60 81305 82592.58 -1287.58
61 81397 82644.89 -1247.89
Note:

Cruise Ship

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 715.07 8.09 88.40 0.00
a 5434.48 3689.44 1.47 0.15
n 3.87 0.30 12.81 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
34.86 TRUE 0 -222.11 452.23 459.45 51044.45 42
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 61 0.13 60.87
2 61 1.92 59.08
3 64 9.14 54.86
4 135 27.13 107.87
5 135 61.17 73.83
6 175 113.92 61.08
7 175 183.11 -8.11
8 218 261.70 -43.70
9 285 340.84 -55.84
10 355 413.29 -58.29
11 454 475.17 -21.17
12 542 525.61 16.39
13 621 565.54 55.46
14 634 596.66 37.34
15 634 620.75 13.25
16 634 639.40 -5.40
17 691 653.88 37.12
18 691 665.18 25.82
19 691 674.06 16.94
20 705 681.09 23.91
21 705 686.71 18.29
22 705 691.23 13.77
23 705 694.89 10.11
24 705 697.88 7.12
25 705 700.34 4.66
26 706 702.38 3.62
27 706 704.08 1.92
28 706 705.50 0.50
29 696 706.70 -10.70
30 696 707.72 -11.72
31 696 708.59 -12.59
32 696 709.33 -13.33
33 696 709.97 -13.97
34 696 710.52 -14.52
35 696 711.00 -15.00
36 696 711.42 -15.42
37 696 711.79 -15.79
38 696 712.11 -16.11
39 696 712.39 -16.39
40 696 712.64 -16.64
41 712 712.86 -0.86
42 712 713.06 -1.06
43 712 713.23 -1.23
44 712 713.39 -1.39
45 712 713.53 -1.53
Note:

The Americas

Mexico

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 915.10 1409.55 0.65 0.53
a 5348.31 3187.84 1.68 0.12
n 2.76 0.71 3.90 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
13.22 FALSE 0 -58.34 124.68 127.51 2097.62 12
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 7 0.17 6.83
2 7 1.15 5.85
3 7 3.52 3.48
4 8 7.74 0.26
5 12 14.21 -2.21
6 12 23.24 -11.24
7 26 35.07 -9.07
8 41 49.82 -8.82
9 53 67.51 -14.51
10 82 88.07 -6.07
11 93 111.30 -18.30
12 118 136.94 -18.94
13 164 164.65 -0.65
14 203 194.05 8.95
15 251 224.70 26.30
Note:

United State (US)

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 162458.37 490487.12 0.33 0.75
a 116333.96 127825.12 0.91 0.38
n 3.57 1.21 2.97 0.01
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
2200.3 FALSE 0 -153.31 314.62 317.95 67778431 14
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 262 1.40 260.60
2 402 16.63 385.37
3 518 70.83 447.17
4 583 197.89 385.11
5 959 438.70 520.30
6 1281 839.66 441.34
7 1663 1451.26 211.74
8 2179 2326.25 -147.25
9 2727 3517.59 -790.59
10 3499 5075.93 -1576.93
11 4632 7046.79 -2414.79
12 6421 9467.60 -3046.60
13 7783 12364.76 -4581.76
14 13677 15751.13 -2074.13
15 19100 19624.08 -524.08
16 25489 23964.55 1524.45
17 33272 28737.27 4534.73
Note:

Argentina

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 657.32 2445.22 0.27 0.79
a 2879.68 4387.55 0.66 0.52
n 2.26 1.31 1.73 0.10
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
23.39 FALSE 0 -89.8 187.6 191.59 9301.8 17
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 1 0.23 0.77
2 1 1.09 -0.09
3 1 2.73 -1.73
4 2 5.21 -3.21
5 8 8.59 -0.59
6 12 12.88 -0.88
7 12 18.11 -6.11
8 17 24.26 -7.26
9 19 31.32 -12.32
10 19 39.24 -20.24
11 31 47.99 -16.99
12 34 57.52 -23.52
13 45 67.76 -22.76
14 56 78.65 -22.65
15 68 90.11 -22.11
16 79 102.07 -23.07
17 97 114.47 -17.47
18 128 127.21 0.79
19 158 140.23 17.77
20 225 153.45 71.55
Note:

Brazil

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 5184.46 25016.61 0.21 0.84
a 16390.81 29672.64 0.55 0.59
n 2.84 1.85 1.53 0.14
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
176.58 FALSE 0 -123.63 255.26 259.04 498886.9 16
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 4 0.32 3.68
2 4 2.27 1.73
3 13 7.18 5.82
4 13 16.25 -3.25
5 20 30.56 -10.56
6 25 51.12 -26.12
7 31 78.82 -47.82
8 38 114.42 -76.42
9 52 158.55 -106.55
10 151 211.68 -60.68
11 151 274.09 -123.09
12 162 345.91 -183.91
13 200 427.04 -227.04
14 321 517.22 -196.22
15 372 616.02 -244.02
16 621 722.81 -101.81
17 793 836.85 -43.85
18 1021 957.28 63.72
19 1593 1083.14 509.86
Note:

Canada

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 6275.04 14102.66 0.44 0.66
a 17181.98 14546.86 1.18 0.25
n 2.85 0.84 3.38 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
94.72 FALSE 0 -111.8 231.59 235.37 143564.3 16
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 33 0.37 32.63
2 37 2.63 34.37
3 49 8.35 40.65
4 54 18.94 35.06
5 64 35.68 28.32
6 77 59.76 17.24
7 79 92.25 -13.25
8 108 134.07 -26.07
9 117 185.97 -68.97
10 193 248.53 -55.53
11 198 322.13 -124.13
12 252 406.92 -154.92
13 415 502.85 -87.85
14 478 609.63 -131.63
15 657 726.78 -69.78
16 800 853.60 -53.60
17 943 989.23 -46.23
18 1278 1132.67 145.33
19 1465 1282.82 182.18
Note:

Colombia

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 838.60 2496.73 0.34 0.74
a 6607.28 7582.17 0.87 0.40
n 2.67 1.18 2.25 0.04
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
20.21 FALSE 0 -73.57 155.15 158.48 5716.64 14
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 1 0.13 0.87
2 1 0.81 0.19
3 1 2.37 -1.37
4 1 5.10 -4.10
5 3 9.20 -6.20
6 9 14.87 -5.87
7 9 22.23 -13.23
8 13 31.40 -18.40
9 22 42.40 -20.40
10 34 55.26 -21.26
11 54 69.94 -15.94
12 65 86.33 -21.33
13 93 104.33 -11.33
14 102 123.78 -21.78
15 128 144.49 -16.49
16 196 166.26 29.74
17 231 188.88 42.12
Note:

Chile

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 2647.64 5648.08 0.47 0.65
a 8200.72 6719.19 1.22 0.25
n 2.86 0.88 3.23 0.01
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
40.54 FALSE 0 -75.15 158.29 161.12 19724.61 12
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 8 0.32 7.68
2 8 2.34 5.66
3 13 7.44 5.56
4 23 16.88 6.12
5 23 31.76 -8.76
6 43 53.05 -10.05
7 61 81.51 -20.51
8 74 117.72 -43.72
9 155 161.96 -6.96
10 201 214.27 -13.27
11 238 274.42 -36.42
12 238 341.91 -103.91
13 434 416.01 17.99
14 537 495.79 41.21
15 632 580.19 51.81
Note:

Venezuela

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 25165.72 8091950.02 0.00 1.00
a 5313.04 1705421.98 0.00 1.00
n 1.24 0.67 1.83 0.12
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
6.29 TRUE 0 -27.5 63 63.79 237.66 6
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 2 4.74 -2.74
2 10 11.15 -1.15
3 17 18.39 -1.39
4 33 26.23 6.77
5 36 34.55 1.45
6 42 43.27 -1.27
7 42 52.32 -10.32
8 70 61.69 8.31
9 70 71.32 -1.32
Note:

Europe

Italy

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 329459.16 420757.34 0.78 0.44
a 187042.99 86717.93 2.16 0.04
n 3.09 0.39 7.83 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
2062.93 FALSE 0 -269.94 547.89 553.49 114902956 27
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 62 1.76 60.24
2 155 15.01 139.99
3 229 52.56 176.44
4 322 127.86 194.14
5 453 254.75 198.25
6 655 447.31 207.69
7 888 719.77 168.23
8 1128 1086.34 41.66
9 1694 1561.19 132.81
10 2036 2158.26 -122.26
11 2502 2891.21 -389.21
12 3089 3773.23 -684.23
13 3858 4816.95 -958.95
14 4636 6034.30 -1398.30
15 5883 7436.34 -1553.34
16 7375 9033.16 -1658.16
17 9172 10833.72 -1661.72
18 10149 12845.73 -2696.73
19 12462 15075.50 -2613.50
20 12462 17527.88 -5065.88
21 17660 20206.11 -2546.11
22 21157 23111.78 -1954.78
23 24747 26244.80 -1497.80
24 27980 29603.29 -1623.29
25 31506 33183.68 -1677.68
26 35713 36980.65 -1267.65
27 41035 40987.22 47.78
28 47021 45194.85 1826.15
29 53578 49593.47 3984.53
30 59138 54171.68 4966.32
Note:

Spain

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 126589.21 245028.75 0.52 0.61
a 96056.54 71513.49 1.34 0.19
n 3.17 0.78 4.09 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
1684.25 FALSE 0 -210.75 429.5 434.21 59570545 21
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 32 1.32 30.68
2 45 11.89 33.11
3 84 43.03 40.97
4 120 107.15 12.85
5 165 217.34 -52.34
6 222 387.09 -165.09
7 259 630.11 -371.11
8 400 960.06 -560.06
9 500 1390.36 -890.36
10 673 1933.92 -1260.92
11 1073 2602.86 -1529.86
12 1695 3408.27 -1713.27
13 2277 4359.88 -2082.88
14 2277 5465.84 -3188.84
15 5232 6732.45 -1500.45
16 6391 8163.89 -1772.89
17 7798 9762.13 -1964.13
18 9942 11526.73 -1584.73
19 11748 13454.84 -1706.84
20 13910 15541.17 -1631.17
21 17963 17778.09 184.91
22 20410 20155.81 254.19
23 25374 22662.58 2711.42
24 28768 25284.98 3483.02
Note:

United Kingdom

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 25081.11 53812.43 0.47 0.65
a 33726.65 26781.03 1.26 0.22
n 3.02 0.84 3.61 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
353.92 FALSE 0 -144.13 296.27 300.25 2129408 17
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 51 0.74 50.26
2 86 6.03 79.97
3 116 20.52 95.48
4 164 48.89 115.11
5 207 95.74 111.26
6 274 165.61 108.39
7 322 262.79 59.21
8 384 391.32 -7.32
9 459 554.83 -95.83
10 459 756.48 -297.48
11 802 998.81 -196.81
12 1144 1283.70 -139.70
13 1145 1612.25 -467.25
14 1551 1984.74 -433.74
15 1960 2400.62 -440.62
16 2642 2858.47 -216.47
17 2716 3356.07 -640.07
18 4014 3890.45 123.55
19 5067 4458.00 609.00
20 5741 5054.55 686.45
Note:

France

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 78297.71 84841.67 0.92 0.37
a 83052.62 33486.99 2.48 0.02
n 3.12 0.42 7.51 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
554.92 FALSE 0 -184.1 376.21 380.92 6466697 21
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 57 0.94 56.06
2 100 8.19 91.81
3 130 28.98 101.02
4 191 71.03 119.97
5 204 142.30 61.70
6 288 250.91 37.09
7 380 404.97 -24.97
8 656 612.50 43.50
9 957 881.27 75.73
10 1134 1218.71 -84.71
11 1217 1631.70 -414.70
12 1792 2126.50 -334.50
13 2290 2708.53 -418.53
14 2290 3382.26 -1092.26
15 3678 4151.09 -473.09
16 4487 5017.20 -530.20
17 4523 5981.51 -1458.51
18 6668 7043.57 -375.57
19 7699 8201.60 -502.60
20 9105 9452.43 -347.43
21 10947 10791.63 155.37
22 12726 12213.55 512.45
23 14431 13711.48 719.52
24 16176 15277.75 898.25
Note:

Germany

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 121408.93 229255.25 0.53 0.60
a 84640.83 58830.90 1.44 0.17
n 3.20 0.72 4.42 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
1363.42 FALSE 0 -188.39 384.79 389.15 35319201 19
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 130 1.43 128.57
2 159 13.20 145.80
3 196 48.35 147.65
4 262 121.40 140.60
5 482 247.79 234.21
6 670 443.56 226.44
7 799 724.97 74.03
8 1040 1108.27 -68.27
9 1176 1609.30 -433.30
10 1457 2243.17 -786.17
11 1908 3023.85 -1115.85
12 2078 3963.76 -1885.76
13 3675 5073.45 -1398.45
14 4585 6361.13 -1776.13
15 5795 7832.41 -2037.41
16 7272 9490.00 -2218.00
17 9257 11333.55 -2076.55
18 12327 13359.51 -1032.51
19 15320 15561.20 -241.20
20 19848 17928.89 1919.11
21 22213 20450.10 1762.90
22 24873 23109.88 1763.12
Note:

Switzerland

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 40531.29 77207.44 0.52 0.61
a 45490.81 34673.00 1.31 0.21
n 3.04 0.60 5.05 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
333.89 FALSE 0 -142.97 293.94 297.92 1895185 17
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 56 0.89 55.11
2 90 7.35 82.65
3 114 25.23 88.77
4 214 60.52 153.48
5 268 119.21 148.79
6 337 207.20 129.80
7 374 330.26 43.74
8 491 493.87 -2.87
9 652 703.15 -51.15
10 652 962.72 -310.72
11 1139 1276.56 -137.56
12 1359 1647.96 -288.96
13 2200 2079.31 120.69
14 2200 2572.11 -372.11
15 2700 3126.84 -426.84
16 3028 3742.95 -714.95
17 4075 4418.84 -343.84
18 5294 5151.89 142.11
19 6575 5938.54 636.46
20 7245 6774.36 470.64
Note:

Norway

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 4238.91 863.24 4.91 0.00
a 6747.70 3473.09 1.94 0.07
n 2.90 0.29 10.10 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
70.73 TRUE 0 -123.3 254.6 258.96 95050.97 19
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 19 0.63 18.37
2 25 4.67 20.33
3 32 15.10 16.90
4 56 34.58 21.42
5 87 65.53 21.47
6 108 109.94 -1.94
7 147 169.37 -22.37
8 176 244.76 -68.76
9 205 336.40 -131.40
10 400 443.91 -43.91
11 598 566.23 31.77
12 702 701.70 0.30
13 996 848.19 147.81
14 1090 1003.26 86.74
15 1221 1164.27 56.73
16 1333 1328.63 4.37
17 1463 1493.84 -30.84
18 1550 1657.67 -107.67
19 1746 1818.20 -72.20
20 1914 1973.86 -59.86
21 2118 2123.43 -5.43
22 2383 2266.03 116.97
Note:

Others

Japan

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 7361.73 5258.07 1.40 0.17
a 30320.16 10474.80 2.89 0.01
n 2.26 0.14 15.76 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
25.2 TRUE 0 -202.85 413.7 420.84 26026.37 41
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 45 0.24 44.76
2 26 1.17 24.83
3 26 2.92 23.08
4 26 5.59 20.41
5 28 9.25 18.75
6 28 13.97 14.03
7 29 19.79 9.21
8 43 26.74 16.26
9 59 34.87 24.13
10 66 44.20 21.80
11 74 54.76 19.24
12 84 66.57 17.43
13 94 79.64 14.36
14 105 94.00 11.00
15 122 109.64 12.36
16 147 126.59 20.41
17 159 144.84 14.16
18 170 164.39 5.61
19 189 185.24 3.76
20 214 207.40 6.60
21 228 230.85 -2.85
22 241 255.58 -14.58
23 256 281.59 -25.59
24 274 308.87 -34.87
25 293 337.39 -44.39
26 331 367.14 -36.14
27 360 398.10 -38.10
28 420 430.25 -10.25
29 461 463.57 -2.57
30 502 498.03 3.97
31 511 533.60 -22.60
32 581 570.27 10.73
33 639 608.00 31.00
34 639 646.75 -7.75
35 701 686.51 14.49
36 773 727.23 45.77
37 839 768.89 70.11
38 825 811.44 13.56
39 878 854.86 23.14
40 889 899.11 -10.11
41 924 944.15 -20.15
42 963 989.95 -26.95
43 1007 1036.47 -29.47
44 1086 1083.66 2.34
Note:

Korea, South

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 9067.90 104.19 87.03 0
a 3233.50 836.21 3.87 0
n 3.24 0.11 29.19 0
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
164.11 TRUE 0 -207.05 422.09 427.96 780985.2 29
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 104 2.80 101.20
2 204 26.49 177.51
3 433 97.91 335.09
4 602 244.86 357.14
5 833 490.90 342.10
6 977 849.74 127.26
7 1261 1320.73 -59.73
8 1766 1887.67 -121.67
9 2337 2521.75 -184.75
10 3150 3187.99 -37.99
11 3736 3852.30 -116.30
12 4335 4486.95 -151.95
13 5186 5072.99 113.01
14 5621 5600.18 20.82
15 6088 6065.30 22.70
16 6593 6469.97 123.03
17 7041 6818.73 222.27
18 7314 7117.50 196.50
19 7478 7372.59 105.41
20 7513 7590.10 -77.10
21 7755 7775.59 -20.59
22 7869 7933.97 -64.97
23 7979 8069.46 -90.46
24 8086 8185.69 -99.69
25 8162 8285.67 -123.67
26 8236 8371.94 -135.94
27 8320 8446.64 -126.64
28 8413 8511.53 -98.53
29 8565 8568.09 -3.09
30 8652 8617.56 34.44
31 8799 8660.96 138.04
32 8897 8699.16 197.84
Note:

Iran

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 39613.47 2265.71 17.48 0
a 38581.83 7577.27 5.09 0
n 3.13 0.09 35.40 0
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
225.21 TRUE 0 -210.34 428.67 434.41 1420118 28
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 18 1.03 16.97
2 28 8.98 19.02
3 43 31.89 11.11
4 61 78.35 -17.35
5 95 157.17 -62.17
6 139 277.18 -138.18
7 245 447.00 -202.00
8 388 674.83 -286.83
9 593 968.14 -375.14
10 978 1333.39 -355.39
11 1501 1775.83 -274.83
12 2336 2299.16 36.84
13 2922 2905.39 16.61
14 3513 3594.65 -81.65
15 4747 4365.18 381.82
16 5823 5213.25 609.75
17 6566 6133.39 432.61
18 7161 7118.49 42.51
19 8042 8160.11 -118.11
20 9000 9248.82 -248.82
21 10075 10374.51 -299.51
22 11364 11526.82 -162.82
23 12729 12695.41 33.59
24 13938 13870.35 67.65
25 14991 15042.30 -51.30
26 16169 16202.77 -33.77
27 17361 17344.24 16.76
28 18407 18460.23 -53.23
29 19644 19545.34 98.66
30 20610 20595.23 14.77
31 21638 21606.54 31.46
Note:

India

Russia

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 1459.36 2712.11 0.54 0.60
a 8320.68 5894.39 1.41 0.18
n 2.75 0.75 3.65 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
21.51 FALSE 0 -74.63 157.27 160.6 6476.28 14
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 13 0.18 12.82
2 13 1.18 11.82
3 17 3.58 13.42
4 17 7.86 9.14
5 20 14.44 5.56
6 20 23.67 -3.67
7 28 35.84 -7.84
8 45 51.16 -6.16
9 59 69.77 -10.77
10 63 91.71 -28.71
11 90 116.96 -26.96
12 114 145.39 -31.39
13 147 176.80 -29.80
14 199 210.95 -11.95
15 253 247.50 5.50
16 306 286.09 19.91
17 367 326.33 40.67
Note:

Israel

Model Results
term estimate std.error statistic p.value
K 4624.43 10364.59 0.45 0.66
a 13875.57 11986.14 1.16 0.26
n 2.77 0.81 3.44 0.00
Note:
Model Results
sigma isConv finTol logLik AIC BIC deviance df.residual
67.78 FALSE 0 -105.43 218.87 222.65 73495.31 16
Note:
Model Results
t confirmed .fitted .resid
1 15 0.33 14.67
2 20 2.28 17.72
3 37 6.99 30.01
4 43 15.50 27.50
5 61 28.68 32.32
6 61 47.36 13.64
7 83 72.21 10.79
8 109 103.83 5.17
9 131 142.68 -11.68
10 161 189.09 -28.09
11 193 243.26 -50.26
12 251 305.24 -54.24
13 255 374.92 -119.92
14 337 452.06 -115.06
15 433 536.29 -103.29
16 677 627.10 49.90
17 705 723.89 -18.89
18 883 825.98 57.02
19 1071 932.59 138.41
Note:

References

Source data: https://github.com/CSSEGISandData/COVID-19.git

Clark, A.J. (2011). “Decline Curve Analysis in Unconventional Resource Plays Using Logistic Growth Models.” M.S. Thesis, The University of Texas at Austin, August 2011.

https://www.gob.mx/cms/uploads/attachment/file/542679/Tabla_casos_positivos_COVID-19_resultado_InDRE_2020.03.21.pdf