An outbreak of a pneumonia-like illness that started in the city of Wuhan has put health authorities on high alert in China and around the world. The new coronavirus — named 2019-nCoV, Novel Coronavirus, Wuhan virus or SARS-CoV-2 — causes the Covid-19 (Corona virus disease 2019) and is thought to have originated in the food market of the central China metropolis.
This report is updated daily at 7am CET.
| Var | Total 04.05.2020 | excl. China 04.05.2020 |
|---|---|---|
| Confirmed Cases | 3506729 | 3422765 |
| Growthrate Confirmed [%] | 2.32 | 2.37 |
| Deaths total | 247470 | 242833 |
| Growthrate Deaths [%] | 1.50 | 1.53 |
| Case fatality rate [%] | 7.06 | 7.09 |
| Case fatality rate 14 Day lag [%] | 10.31 | 10.48 |
| Number of Countries | 183 |
Data Source: JHU CSSE
The lower map shows the current cases per 10’000 population per country
Based on current figures, the public expects a fatality rate of 2.5-3.5%. But this is wrong! (Status 23 feb 2020). Why is this wrong? The fatality rate is generally calculated as follows: \[fatalityrate_{total}= Deaths_{total}/Confirmed_{total}\] Unfortunately this formula is only correct ex post. Because during a pandemic with rising case numbers, the number of deaths has been lagging. Therefore, if the pandemic is not terminated, the formula must be adjusted as follows:
\[fatalityrate_t= Deaths_t/Confirmed_{t-T}\]
where \(T\) represents the number of days between day of confirmation and the day of death. Since \(Confirmed_t>Confirmed_{(t-T)}\), the fatality rate of 2.5-3.5% given to the public is underestimated with absolute certainty (as of 23 feb 2020). I assume a fatality rate of 6-8%, which is more than twice as high as the one currently shown.
Deaths estimation for 18.05.2020 (based on a 14days lag fatality rate):
210404 - 280538 deaths