ITKM 560 - Midterm Presentation
Makayla Maroney and Annetta Allen
3/4/2020
Who opens a certificate of deposit (CD)?
According to our findings, individuals open CDs based on the following factors
- Job
- Marital status
- Credit defaults
- Previous campaign data
- Type of communication
- Duration of persuasion
- Number of contacts
- Resting period
- Previous number of contacts
- Outcome
- Employment Variation Rate
- Rates and Index
- Consumer confidence index
- Euribor 3 month rate
Job Factors
- There is a dependency between job types and opening a CD
- Students have the highest proportion of opening a CD
- This may be because students need a safe place for their future tuition funds
- Blue collar individuals are the least likely to open a CD
- This may be because they are unaware of the benefits a CD could provide
- Retired people are high on the list of people that open a CD
- This may be because they need it for leverage later down the road
##
##
## Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## | N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## | N / Row Total |
## | N / Col Total |
## | N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
##
##
## Total Observations in Table: 41188
##
##
## | bank$y
## bank$job | no | yes | Row Total |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## admin. | 9070 | 1352 | 10422 |
## | 3.423 | 26.961 | |
## | 0.870 | 0.130 | 0.253 |
## | 0.248 | 0.291 | |
## | 0.220 | 0.033 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## blue-collar | 8616 | 638 | 9254 |
## | 19.926 | 156.951 | |
## | 0.931 | 0.069 | 0.225 |
## | 0.236 | 0.138 | |
## | 0.209 | 0.015 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## entrepreneur | 1332 | 124 | 1456 |
## | 1.240 | 9.767 | |
## | 0.915 | 0.085 | 0.035 |
## | 0.036 | 0.027 | |
## | 0.032 | 0.003 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## housemaid | 954 | 106 | 1060 |
## | 0.191 | 1.507 | |
## | 0.900 | 0.100 | 0.026 |
## | 0.026 | 0.023 | |
## | 0.023 | 0.003 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## management | 2596 | 328 | 2924 |
## | 0.001 | 0.006 | |
## | 0.888 | 0.112 | 0.071 |
## | 0.071 | 0.071 | |
## | 0.063 | 0.008 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## retired | 1286 | 434 | 1720 |
## | 37.814 | 297.849 | |
## | 0.748 | 0.252 | 0.042 |
## | 0.035 | 0.094 | |
## | 0.031 | 0.011 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## self-employed | 1272 | 149 | 1421 |
## | 0.097 | 0.767 | |
## | 0.895 | 0.105 | 0.035 |
## | 0.035 | 0.032 | |
## | 0.031 | 0.004 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## services | 3646 | 323 | 3969 |
## | 4.375 | 34.458 | |
## | 0.919 | 0.081 | 0.096 |
## | 0.100 | 0.070 | |
## | 0.089 | 0.008 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## student | 600 | 275 | 875 |
## | 40.090 | 315.775 | |
## | 0.686 | 0.314 | 0.021 |
## | 0.016 | 0.059 | |
## | 0.015 | 0.007 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## technician | 6013 | 730 | 6743 |
## | 0.147 | 1.156 | |
## | 0.892 | 0.108 | 0.164 |
## | 0.165 | 0.157 | |
## | 0.146 | 0.018 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## unemployed | 870 | 144 | 1014 |
## | 0.985 | 7.758 | |
## | 0.858 | 0.142 | 0.025 |
## | 0.024 | 0.031 | |
## | 0.021 | 0.003 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## unknown | 293 | 37 | 330 |
## | 0.000 | 0.001 | |
## | 0.888 | 0.112 | 0.008 |
## | 0.008 | 0.008 | |
## | 0.007 | 0.001 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## Column Total | 36548 | 4640 | 41188 |
## | 0.887 | 0.113 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##
##
## Statistics for All Table Factors
##
##
## Pearson's Chi-squared test
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Chi^2 = 961.2424 d.f. = 11 p = 4.189763e-199
##
##
##
Marital Status
- There is a dependency between marital status and opening a CD
- Individuals that are single are more likely to open a CD
##
##
## Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## | N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## | N / Row Total |
## | N / Col Total |
## | N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
##
##
## Total Observations in Table: 41188
##
##
## | bank$y
## bank$marital | no | yes | Row Total |
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## divorced | 4136 | 476 | 4612 |
## | 0.464 | 3.652 | |
## | 0.897 | 0.103 | 0.112 |
## | 0.113 | 0.103 | |
## | 0.100 | 0.012 | |
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## married | 22396 | 2532 | 24928 |
## | 3.450 | 27.174 | |
## | 0.898 | 0.102 | 0.605 |
## | 0.613 | 0.546 | |
## | 0.544 | 0.061 | |
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## single | 9948 | 1620 | 11568 |
## | 9.778 | 77.021 | |
## | 0.860 | 0.140 | 0.281 |
## | 0.272 | 0.349 | |
## | 0.242 | 0.039 | |
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## unknown | 68 | 12 | 80 |
## | 0.126 | 0.990 | |
## | 0.850 | 0.150 | 0.002 |
## | 0.002 | 0.003 | |
## | 0.002 | 0.000 | |
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## Column Total | 36548 | 4640 | 41188 |
## | 0.887 | 0.113 | |
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##
##
## Statistics for All Table Factors
##
##
## Pearson's Chi-squared test
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Chi^2 = 122.6552 d.f. = 3 p = 2.068015e-26
##
##
##
Previous Credit Defaults
- There is a dependency between having a credit default and opening a CD
- Individuals without credit default are targeted
- Individuals with credit default are over-looked
## Warning in chisq.test(t, correct = FALSE, ...): Chi-squared approximation may be
## incorrect
##
##
## Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## | N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## | N / Row Total |
## | N / Col Total |
## | N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
##
##
## Total Observations in Table: 41188
##
##
## | bank$y
## bank$default | no | yes | Row Total |
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## no | 28391 | 4197 | 32588 |
## | 9.562 | 75.315 | |
## | 0.871 | 0.129 | 0.791 |
## | 0.777 | 0.905 | |
## | 0.689 | 0.102 | |
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## unknown | 8154 | 443 | 8597 |
## | 36.198 | 285.122 | |
## | 0.948 | 0.052 | 0.209 |
## | 0.223 | 0.095 | |
## | 0.198 | 0.011 | |
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## yes | 3 | 0 | 3 |
## | 0.043 | 0.338 | |
## | 1.000 | 0.000 | 0.000 |
## | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
## | 0.000 | 0.000 | |
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## Column Total | 36548 | 4640 | 41188 |
## | 0.887 | 0.113 | |
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##
##
## Statistics for All Table Factors
##
##
## Pearson's Chi-squared test
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Chi^2 = 406.5775 d.f. = 2 p = 5.161958e-89
##
##
##
Time to Convince Someone to Buy a CD (in seconds)
##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: bank$duration by bank$y
## t = -55.5, df = 4957.5, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is less than 0
## 99.9 percent confidence interval:
## -Inf -313.8316
## sample estimates:
## mean in group no mean in group yes
## 220.8448 553.1912
- There is a dependency between the duration of contact and the likelihood of opening a CD
- Individuals are more likely to open a CD when the duration stays between 3.5 minutes and 9 minutes (between 220 seconds and 553 seconds)
Previous Marketing Campaign Results
- There is a dependency between the results of the previous marketing campaign and the likelihood of opening a CD for this campaign
- 65% of current clients are more likely open an additional CD
##
##
## Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## | N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## | N / Row Total |
## | N / Col Total |
## | N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
##
##
## Total Observations in Table: 41188
##
##
## | bank$y
## bank$poutcome | no | yes | Row Total |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## failure | 3647 | 605 | 4252 |
## | 4.207 | 33.141 | |
## | 0.858 | 0.142 | 0.103 |
## | 0.100 | 0.130 | |
## | 0.089 | 0.015 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## nonexistent | 32422 | 3141 | 35563 |
## | 23.728 | 186.899 | |
## | 0.912 | 0.088 | 0.863 |
## | 0.887 | 0.677 | |
## | 0.787 | 0.076 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## success | 479 | 894 | 1373 |
## | 448.651 | 3533.897 | |
## | 0.349 | 0.651 | 0.033 |
## | 0.013 | 0.193 | |
## | 0.012 | 0.022 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## Column Total | 36548 | 4640 | 41188 |
## | 0.887 | 0.113 | |
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##
##
## Statistics for All Table Factors
##
##
## Pearson's Chi-squared test
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Chi^2 = 4230.524 d.f. = 2 p = 0
##
##
##
Employment Variation Rate
- There is a dependency between the employment variation rate and the likelihood of opening a CD
- The quarterly variation rate should be between .2 and -1.2 to optimize the probability of opening a CD
- which means the change of the employment rates will make customers less likely to open a CD
##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: bank$emp.var.rate by bank$y
## t = 59.137, df = 5665.6, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 99.9 percent confidence interval:
## 1.399800 1.564847
## sample estimates:
## mean in group no mean in group yes
## 0.2488755 -1.2334483
Consumer Confidence Index
- There is a dependency between consumer confidence index and the likelihood of opening a CD
- Consumers are most likely to open a CD when the confidence index is in the mid range between -40 and -39
##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: bank$cons.conf.idx by bank$y
## t = -8.6365, df = 5258.3, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 99.9 percent confidence interval:
## -1.1095498 -0.4970747
## sample estimates:
## mean in group no mean in group yes
## -40.59310 -39.78978
Euribor 3 Month Rate
- There is a dependency between consumer confidence index and the likelihood of opening a CD
- If the rate is between 2 and 3 there is a higher likelihood that individuals are going to open a CD
##
## Welch Two Sample t-test
##
## data: bank$euribor3m by bank$y
## t = 62.58, df = 5729.2, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 99.9 percent confidence interval:
## 1.599534 1.777178
## sample estimates:
## mean in group no mean in group yes
## 3.811491 2.123135
Conclusion
Through the use of the information provided here, the average of individuals opening CDs will rise beyond the current 11.3%.
Thank you!
