Background and Purpose

References in this Analysis

Study Area

This section will provide a overview of detail regarding the JBLM Study area covering a variety of topics including:
• Requirements for Active Duty Service Members proximity to JBLM by Driving Distance
• Access to Gate Locations

Market Areas

We suggest breaking down the study area into smaller units of study particularly because there are different characteristics of housing based on geographic position of housing relative to the gate locations to access JBLM. Furthermore, the type of housing available can be grouped more similarly according to these market areas. Lastly, the markets for these areas have different characteristics which would be useful to highlight separately from the Study area as a whole.

Housing Terms

This section will outline specific terms useful for understanding the terms used in this document.

Summary Findings

This section will be a place to highlight the conclusions from the detailed sections of Housing Inventory, Housing Needs, and Housing Needs Analysis.

Part I. Housing Inventory

A. Physical Characteristics of Housing

This section will identify of the distribution of housing across the study area. Particularly, this is existing stock as identified by Pierce and Thurston County Buildable Lands Inventory tentatively by four categories: detached single family units, multifamily units, condos and manufactured homes. Furthermore, characteristics of housing will be examined including age and condition of housing.

Total Stock and Change Over Time

This sub section will highlight the current inventory of housing by type.

Housing Type

Exhibit 2. Housing in Kitsap County is Predominantly Single Family Source: Kitsap County Assessor’s data, 2019.

Exhibit 3. Housing Units Across Jurisdictions Are Predominantly Single-Family, 2013-2018

Housing Units across Jurisdictions
Area Mobile Multi-family Single-family
NE 8433 31290 112685
NW 1689 37230 55677
SE 5610 713 20356
SW 5325 19772 60495
Total 21057 89005 249213

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table B25032.

Exhibit 4. Northwest Base Market Area Housing Map Source: unknown

Exhibit 5. The Southwest Base Market Area Housing Map Source: unknown

Exhibit 6. Northeast Base Market Area Housing Map Source: unknown

Exhibit 7. Southeast Base Base Market Area Housing Map Source: unknown

Exhibit 9. Single-Family Rental and Some Multifamily Ownership Stock

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table B25032.

Mobile Homes/Manufactured Homes

Mobile and Manufactured Homes are a relatively affordable housing option. However, because housing is difficult to move, condition of housing can often be difficult to maintain diminishing the value of the home. Mobile Homes are typically placed on leased land, and Manufactured homes are placed on owned land.

Exhibit 10. Mobile Homes in JBLM Study Area Source:

Exhibit 11. Manufactured Homes in the JBLM Study Area Source:

Age of Housing Stock

Housing age is related to housing affordability, as a unit ages rents and costs typically depreciate as well.

Exhibit 12. Age of Housing Stock

label NE NW SE SW Total
Built 1939 or earlier 12855 18560 1111 4892 37418
Built 1940 to 1949 7002 7042 365 2360 16769
Built 1950 to 1959 9656 10778 525 4631 25590
Built 1960 to 1969 14043 14132 1375 7114 36664
Built 1970 to 1979 23309 17943 4561 15724 61537
Built 1980 to 1989 23515 12761 4481 12932 53689
Built 1990 to 1999 29547 10217 7647 17702 65113
Built 2000 to 2009 33216 7638 6468 18292 65614
Built 2010 to 2013 5852 2490 1558 4587 14487
Built 2014 or later 3400 1081 501 2455 7437
Total 162395 102642 28592 90689 384318

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table B25034.

Exhibit 13. JBLM Study Area Single-Family Housing Age Source: unknown

Exhibit 14. Age of Multifamily Housing by Units Source: ECONorthwest analysis of CoStar data (June 2019).

Vacancy

Vacancy rates in areas are related to the price of rent and market value. When Vacancy is low prices typically rise due to the higher demand of a limit resource. Comparatively, when vacancy rates increase, the time between occupancy increases which incentivizes property owners to offer lower prices for rent or possibly increase a willingness to take lower than asking price for housing sales.

Exhibit 15. Vacancy rates across JBLM Study Area

Area 2000 2010 2014-2018
NE 5.08% 6.57% 6.15%
NW 5.85% 8.55% 7.84%
SE 4.92% 6.98% 6.69%
SW 5.28% 6.34% 5.62%
Total 5.41% 7.09% 6.52%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2000 Decennial Census SF1, Table QT-H1; 2010 Decennial Census SF1, Table QT-H1; 2013-2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table B25002.

Exhibit 16. Owner vs. Renter Vacancy Rates In JBLM Study Area

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table DP04.

Exhibit 17. Reasons for Vacancy in JBLM Study Area

Vacancy reason NE NW SE SW
For migrant workers 0 15 0 0
For rent 2137 2303 67 1819
For sale only 1794 1040 120 668
For seasonal recreational or occasional use 428 551 440 681
Other vacant 4439 2625 1144 1419
Rented not occupied 593 1062 22 249
Sold not occupied 596 450 120 261

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table B25004.

B. Housing Tenure

Another variable related to the cost of housing across housing markets is often households may need to look for housing. Often times this can be related to increasing rent, growth of households (addition of children). As more people are switching between housing units increases the demand for housing.
Exhibit 18. Distribution of Housing Tenure in JBLM Study area (2013-2018)

Area Mobile Multi-family Single-family
NE 8433 31290 112685
NW 1689 37230 55677
SE 5610 713 20356
SW 5325 19772 60495
Total 21057 89005 249213

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table DP04.

Exhibit 19. Homeownership Rates Vary by Location, 2013-2018

Area Mobile Multi-family Single-family
NE 8433 31290 112685
NW 1689 37230 55677
SE 5610 713 20356
SW 5325 19772 60495
Total 21057 89005 249213

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013-2018 ACS 5-Year Estimates, Table DP04.

C. Housing Costs

Housing Costs across the JBLM study area have seen a surge since coming out of the Great Recession and as economic growth throughout the Puget Sound has increased the demand of housing.

Home Prices

Exhibit 20. Home Values are Increasing in Numerous Counties Source: Zillow Home Value Index, June 1996 – June 2019. Note: Data includes Multifamily, Single-family, and Condo/Co-op Housing.

Exhibit 21. Home Sales Prices are Growing in Kitsap County, June 2008 – June 2019 Source: Zillow, Median Sale Price Seasonally Adjusted.

Exhibit 22. Number of Home Sales in JBLM Study Area Source: Zillow, Number of Sale over Time, Seasonally Adjusted.

Exhibit 23. Housing Market Value Compared to Puget Sound Metro Area Source: unknown

Exhibit 24. The Highest Recent Home Prices are on Bainbridge and Along the County Shoreline Source: unknown

Rents

Exhibit 25. Multifamily Rents are Increasing in Puget Sound Counties Source: Zillow Rent Index (ZRI) – Multifamily, 2019.

Exhibit 26. Median Gross Rents for all Rental Housing Types are Growing Across Kitsap County Source: Zillow Rent Index (ZRI), June 2019.

D. Housing Affordability

In this section, we hope to discuss the appreciation of home values and the increasing costs of homeownership and rental costs as it relates to income. We can understanding affordability in terms for housing related to BAH Allowances provided by the Federal government and competition for housing stock for households looking for the same price level as E-1 to E-5 Service Members.

Cost Burdening

Exhibit 27. Cost Burdening Varies by Location, All Households (Renter and Owner)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2013–2018 ACS 5-Year Estimate Table B25095.

Housing Stock and Affordability Mismatch

BAH Allowances
Exhibit 37. Basic Allowance for Housing (BAH) Rates, 2019 Source: NB Kitsap-Bangor, WA Housing & Relocation Information; Zillow 2019 Rent Index

Exhibit 30. Mismatch in Rental Housing by Affordability Level, JBLM, 2013-2018
Source: ECONorthwest analysis of 2013-2018 ACS PUMS,.

Exhibit 31. Surplus or Deficit of Housing by BAH Level, JBLM, 2013-2018 Source: ECONorthwest analysis of 2013-2018 ACS PUMS

E. Access to Transit and Employment Centers

Access of Housing based on transit and driving distance to JBLM is an essential part of our study for the mobilization time of active duty service members. We will use this section to describe housing in relation to drive times from JBLM and the available gates to enter the base.

Exhibit 39. ½ Mile Buffers of JBLM Transit Source: Kitsap Transit 2019, Washington State Department of Transportation.

Exhibit 40. Most Housing Within 1/2 Mile buffer of Transit is Single Family Source: Washington State Department of Transportation

Exhibit 43. Map of 15 Minute Drivetime Network from JBLM Study Areas Source: ArcGIS, ECONorthwest