Intro to Probability

Exercise 1

A card is drawn at random from a deck consisting of cards numbered 2 through 10. A player wins 1 dollar if the number on the card is odd and loses 1 dollar if the number if even. What is the expected value of his winnings?

|S| = \(\binom{9}{1}\), All possible combo in the sample space

|even| = \(\binom{5}{1}\), Even sample space and its combo

|odd| = \(\binom{4}{1}\), Odd sample space and its combo

#Probability of wininng => is drawing even.  There are 5 even numbers
# using combinations

peven <- choose(5,1)*choose(4,0)/choose(9,1)

round(peven ,4)
## [1] 0.5556
#Probability of losing => is drawing odd.  There are the left over odd numbers

podd <- 1- peven

round(podd,4)
## [1] 0.4444
# The expected value proposition

E <- 1*peven - 1*podd

round(E,4)
## [1] 0.1111