M.Case

Chuẩn bị data, prepare data

Mcase = scan("C:/Users/tien.vo/Desktop/Paulus Cicero/MCase/MCase.txt")
ts.Mcase = ts(data = Mcase, start = c(2016,11), frequency = 52, deltat = 1/52)
ts.Mcase

## Time Series:
## Start = c(2016, 11) 
## End = c(2020, 5) 
## Frequency = 52 
##   [1]    11869     5419    10846    42470    57807   113769    99350   117158
##   [9]   110970   123268   214549   286956   921282   962817  1074907   832836
##  [17]   543384   505595   578816   627458   563567   588717   580119   559924
##  [25]   578649   834911   571841   601102   488301   564944   554616   903425
##  [33]   537738   516245   446845   502021   484814   641531   747981   762795
##  [41]  1005210  1437366   925650   843299  1006226  1018827  1143010  1549389
##  [49]  1834565  1869638  1763585  2209847  1708935  1469980  2573461  2168514
##  [57]  2992916  4068631  3584168  3149855  3353559  2526424  2377033  3746123
##  [65]  3784056  3567323  2727668  3333983  3714532  3185243  4507527  5301227
##  [73]  4676059  4574405  3680107  3720825  4033499  2754135  2685764  2957920
##  [81]  2817631  5106953  5106552  3842420  3950335  4077124  5716805  3999884
##  [89]  3506126  3599628  3272799  2965619  5215910  5062784  3758640  2835722
##  [97]  4851637  4092564  4226107  3877076  3327173  3770463  5042058  4174630
## [105]  4678488  3980902  4756797  5164306  7080204  6985033  6011010  7810293
## [113]  8856730  9402436  7100756  6222322  5829904  7238888  7231714  6198178
## [121]  7031805  7937517 10803051  8652955  7374711  5998900  7748636  5867777
## [129]  6157725  4883563  4104536  6259366  7576471  3874586  4821358  3930094
## [137]  5461164  4559149  4202118  6111013  6488011  8844265  4812497  3503791
## [145]  3858115  6936672  5207599  6363433  5619714  4428299  4623578  4845553
## [153]  6047885  6973008  8879871  8001341  9467901 10389949  6640227  6051601
## [161]  5426739  5862831  6934608  6483894  4547921  8143662  6322643  6774785
## [169]  5701285  8869305  7406109  7956805 12149261  8485728  8496011 11096507
## [177]  7837594  8184699  6983550  6273697  7051047  6697425  6721463  6830176
## [185]  7671282  7180523 14837823 11543601  8161302  9507601  8295435  6274389
## [193]  5768242  5084171  6873878  3976883  6143162  7446388  8987171  4786391
## [201]  5796463  7281619  9798833

Decompose time series data:

comp = decompose(ts.Mcase)
library(ggplot2)
library(ggfortify)
autoplot(comp)

Smooth data; làm mềm dữ liệu cho dễ nhìn

library(TTR)
sma4 = SMA(ts.Mcase, n=4)
sma8 = SMA(ts.Mcase, n=8)
par(mfrow=c(1,2))
plot.ts(sma4); plot.ts(sma8)

Predict

library(forecast); library(fpp2) 
autoplot(ts.Mcase) + ylab("Vs") + xlab("Weeks per Year")

fc = ses(ts.Mcase, h=4)
autoplot(fc)