Data 607 Week 1 Assignment
Justin Hsi
2/1/2020
Overview
The article aggregates the approval/disapproval ratings of donald trump’s presidency from various poll sources. The various polls are given weights and are also graded in terms of their historical accuracy. Finally, at the bottom of the article you can see similar plots for past presidents. Article at https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/
approve_pollist = read.csv(text=getURL('https://raw.githubusercontent.com/jmhsi/trump-approval-ratings/master/approval_polllist.csv'))
head(approve_pollist)## president subgroup modeldate startdate enddate pollster grade
## 1 Donald Trump All polls 2/1/2020 1/20/2017 1/22/2017 Gallup B
## 2 Donald Trump All polls 2/1/2020 1/20/2017 1/22/2017 Morning Consult B/C
## 3 Donald Trump All polls 2/1/2020 1/20/2017 1/24/2017 Ipsos B-
## 4 Donald Trump All polls 2/1/2020 1/21/2017 1/23/2017 Gallup B
## 5 Donald Trump All polls 2/1/2020 1/21/2017 1/25/2017 Ipsos B-
## 6 Donald Trump All polls 2/1/2020 1/22/2017 1/24/2017 Gallup B
## samplesize population weight influence approve disapprove adjusted_approve
## 1 1500 a 0.2416820 0 45.0 45.0 45.82995
## 2 1992 rv 0.6969837 0 46.0 37.0 44.56065
## 3 1632 a 0.1507855 0 42.1 45.2 42.81977
## 4 1500 a 0.2232337 0 45.0 46.0 45.82995
## 5 1651 a 0.1389668 0 42.3 45.8 43.01977
## 6 1500 a 0.2086590 0 46.0 45.0 46.82995
## adjusted_disapprove multiversions tracking
## 1 43.48533 TRUE
## 2 38.42233 NA
## 3 44.06066 TRUE
## 4 44.48533 TRUE
## 5 44.66066 TRUE
## 6 43.48533 TRUE
## url
## 1 http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx
## 2 http://static.politico.com/9b/13/82a3baf542ae9018e5b6e1008379/170103-topline-politico-v3-kd.pdf
## 3 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
## 4 http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx
## 5 http://polling.reuters.com/#poll/CP3_2/
## 6 http://www.gallup.com/poll/201617/gallup-daily-trump-job-approval.aspx
## poll_id question_id createddate timestamp
## 1 49253 77265 1/23/2017 08:19:14 1 Feb 2020
## 2 49249 77261 1/23/2017 08:19:14 1 Feb 2020
## 3 49426 77599 3/1/2017 08:19:14 1 Feb 2020
## 4 49262 77274 1/24/2017 08:19:14 1 Feb 2020
## 5 49425 77598 3/1/2017 08:19:14 1 Feb 2020
## 6 49236 77248 1/25/2017 08:19:14 1 Feb 2020approve_pollist$modeldate = as.Date(approve_pollist$modeldate, format='%m/%d/%Y')
approve_pollist$startdate = as.Date(approve_pollist$startdate, format='%m/%d/%Y')
approve_pollist$enddate = as.Date(approve_pollist$enddate, format='%m/%d/%Y')
recent_polls = subset(approve_pollist, startdate > as.Date("2019-1-1"), select=c(subgroup, modeldate, startdate, enddate, pollster, grade, samplesize, population, weight, approve, disapprove, adjusted_approve, adjusted_disapprove))
recent_polls = recent_polls %>%
rename(
polled_population = population
)
recent_polls$polled_population = recode_factor(recent_polls$polled_population, a = "all adults", rv = 'registered voters', v='voters', lv='likely voters')
head(recent_polls)## subgroup modeldate startdate enddate
## 2820 All polls 2020-02-01 2019-01-02 2019-01-03
## 2821 All polls 2020-02-01 2019-01-02 2019-01-04
## 2822 All polls 2020-02-01 2019-01-03 2019-01-05
## 2823 All polls 2020-02-01 2019-01-03 2019-01-05
## 2824 All polls 2020-02-01 2019-01-03 2019-01-04
## 2826 All polls 2020-02-01 2019-01-02 2019-01-06
## pollster grade samplesize
## 2820 YouGov B- 1000
## 2821 HarrisX C+ 3003
## 2822 YouGov B- 1000
## 2823 HarrisX C+ 3000
## 2824 Public Policy Polling B 658
## 2826 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research C+ 1500
## polled_population weight approve disapprove adjusted_approve
## 2820 all adults 0.11508766 41 52 41.75357
## 2821 registered voters 0.08019612 47 53 42.52428
## 2822 all adults 0.11564389 41 53 41.75357
## 2823 registered voters 0.07919949 48 52 43.52428
## 2824 registered voters 0.76291635 43 52 42.37991
## 2826 likely voters 0.08215774 46 53 40.10447
## adjusted_disapprove
## 2820 54.40230
## 2821 52.36856
## 2822 55.40230
## 2823 51.36856
## 2824 52.33128
## 2826 54.62343summary(recent_polls)## subgroup modeldate startdate
## Adults : 891 Min. :2020-02-01 Min. :2019-01-02
## All polls:1698 1st Qu.:2020-02-01 1st Qu.:2019-03-19
## Voters :1454 Median :2020-02-01 Median :2019-06-22
## Mean :2020-02-01 Mean :2019-06-28
## 3rd Qu.:2020-02-01 3rd Qu.:2019-09-28
## Max. :2020-02-01 Max. :2020-01-29
##
## enddate pollster
## Min. :2019-01-03 YouGov :1358
## 1st Qu.:2019-03-22 HarrisX : 702
## Median :2019-06-25 Rasmussen Reports/Pulse Opinion Research: 542
## Mean :2019-07-01 Morning Consult : 415
## 3rd Qu.:2019-10-01 Ipsos : 409
## Max. :2020-01-30 Gallup : 44
## (Other) : 573
## grade samplesize polled_population weight
## B- :1769 Min. : 604 all adults :1782 Min. :0.0000
## C+ :1278 1st Qu.: 1000 registered voters:1667 1st Qu.:0.1026
## B/C : 446 Median : 1500 voters : 2 Median :0.1142
## A/B : 104 Mean : 1801 likely voters : 592 Mean :0.3388
## B : 101 3rd Qu.: 2201 3rd Qu.:0.2202
## : 90 Max. :19909 Max. :3.0935
## (Other): 255
## approve disapprove adjusted_approve adjusted_disapprove
## Min. :34.00 Min. :45.00 Min. :35.15 Min. :45.78
## 1st Qu.:41.00 1st Qu.:52.00 1st Qu.:40.52 1st Qu.:52.40
## Median :43.00 Median :53.00 Median :41.86 Median :53.64
## Mean :43.29 Mean :53.19 Mean :41.78 Mean :53.62
## 3rd Qu.:45.00 3rd Qu.:55.00 3rd Qu.:43.10 3rd Qu.:54.69
## Max. :53.00 Max. :65.00 Max. :49.45 Max. :60.77
## barplot(table(recent_polls$polled_population), main = "Polls by Sampled Population")
Findings and Recommendations
The analysis was on Trump’s approval ratings across the various polling populations, but you could use this data to try and get a sense of the next presidential election results. If you assume that approval of Trump correlates to voting for Trump, then you might redo this analysis of only likely voters or registered voters and see how his approval rating stands. You could monitor this up until the next presidential election and it may give you a sense of sentiment on Trump being President for another term.