ANLY 505 - DiamondsDataModel
Week 3
Daoyi.Wang
2020-01-26
Initial Visualization
ggplot(diamonds, aes(cut,price)) + geom_boxplot()
ggplot(diamonds, aes(color,price)) + geom_boxplot()
ggplot(diamonds, aes(clarity,price)) + geom_boxplot()
ggplot(diamonds, aes(carat, price)) +
geom_hex(bins=50)
Subset Data and replot
diamonds2 <- diamonds %>%
filter(carat <= 2.5) %>%
mutate(lprice = log2(price), lcarat = log2(carat))
ggplot(diamonds2, aes(lcarat, lprice)) +
geom_hex(bins=50)
Simple model and visualization
mod_diamond <- lm(lprice ~ lcarat, data = diamonds2, na.action = na.warn)
grid <- diamonds2 %>%
data_grid(carat = seq_range(carat, 20)) %>%
mutate(lcarat = log2(carat)) %>%
add_predictions(mod_diamond, "lprice") %>%
mutate(price = 2 ^ lprice)
ggplot(diamonds2, aes(carat, price)) +
geom_hex(bins = 50) +
geom_line(data = grid, color = "green", size = 1)
Add residuals and plot
diamonds2 <- diamonds2 %>%
add_residuals(mod_diamond, "lresid")
ggplot(diamonds2, aes(lcarat, lresid)) +
geom_hex(bins = 50)
ggplot(diamonds2, aes(cut,lresid)) + geom_boxplot()
ggplot(diamonds2, aes(color,lresid)) + geom_boxplot()
ggplot(diamonds2, aes(clarity,lresid)) + geom_boxplot()
Four parameter model and visualization
mod_diamond2 <- lm(
lprice ~ lcarat + color + cut + clarity, diamonds2, na.action = na.warn
)
grid <- diamonds2 %>%
data_grid(cut, .model = mod_diamond2) %>%
add_predictions(mod_diamond2)
grid## # A tibble: 5 x 5
## cut lcarat color clarity pred
## <ord> <dbl> <chr> <chr> <dbl>
## 1 Fair -0.515 G VS2 11.2
## 2 Good -0.515 G VS2 11.3
## 3 Very Good -0.515 G VS2 11.4
## 4 Premium -0.515 G VS2 11.4
## 5 Ideal -0.515 G VS2 11.4ggplot(grid, aes(cut, pred)) +
geom_point()
Plot residuals of four parameter model
diamonds2 <- diamonds2 %>%
add_residuals(mod_diamond2, "lresid2")
ggplot(diamonds2, aes(lcarat, lresid2)) +
geom_hex(bins = 50)
diamonds2 %>%
filter(abs(lresid2) > 1) %>%
add_predictions(mod_diamond2) %>%
mutate(pred = round(2^pred)) %>%
select(price, pred, carat:table, x:z) %>%
arrange(price)## # A tibble: 16 x 11
## price pred carat cut color clarity depth table x y z
## <int> <dbl> <dbl> <ord> <ord> <ord> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 1013 264 0.25 Fair F SI2 54.4 64 4.3 4.23 2.32
## 2 1186 284 0.25 Premium G SI2 59 60 5.33 5.28 3.12
## 3 1186 284 0.25 Premium G SI2 58.8 60 5.33 5.28 3.12
## 4 1262 2644 1.03 Fair E I1 78.2 54 5.72 5.59 4.42
## 5 1415 639 0.35 Fair G VS2 65.9 54 5.57 5.53 3.66
## 6 1415 639 0.35 Fair G VS2 65.9 54 5.57 5.53 3.66
## 7 1715 576 0.32 Fair F VS2 59.6 60 4.42 4.34 2.61
## 8 1776 412 0.290 Fair F SI1 55.8 60 4.48 4.41 2.48
## 9 2160 314 0.34 Fair F I1 55.8 62 4.72 4.6 2.6
## 10 2366 774 0.3 Very Good D VVS2 60.6 58 4.33 4.35 2.63
## 11 3360 1373 0.51 Premium F SI1 62.7 62 5.09 4.96 3.15
## 12 3807 1540 0.61 Good F SI2 62.5 65 5.36 5.29 3.33
## 13 3920 1705 0.51 Fair F VVS2 65.4 60 4.98 4.9 3.23
## 14 4368 1705 0.51 Fair F VVS2 60.7 66 5.21 5.11 3.13
## 15 10011 4048 1.01 Fair D SI2 64.6 58 6.25 6.2 4.02
## 16 10470 23622 2.46 Premium E SI2 59.7 59 8.82 8.76 5.25Question #1
In the plot of lcarat vs. lprice, there are some bright vertical strips. What do they represent?
They represent areas of high counts (of diamonds), meaning that those types of diamonds are more popluar.
Question #2
If log(price) = a_0 + a_1 * log(carat), what does that say about the relationship between price and carat?
The price is dependent on carat, and a higher the carat indicates a higher price. Their relationship is not linear. An 1% increase in carat leads to an (a_1*a_1)% increase in price.
Question #3
Extract the diamonds that have very high and very low residuals. Is there anything unusual about these diamonds? Are they particularly bad or good, or do you think these are pricing errors?
# Use this chunk to place your code for extracting the high and low residuals and answer question 3
diamonds2 <- diamonds %>%
filter(carat <= 2.5) %>%
mutate(lprice = log2(price), lcarat = log2(carat))
mod_diamond <- lm(lprice ~ lcarat, data = diamonds2)
diamonds2 <- diamonds2 %>%
add_residuals(mod_diamond, "lresid")
resid_quants <- quantile(diamonds2$lresid)
filtered <- diamonds2 %>%
filter(
!((lresid < resid_quants[["25%"]]) & (lresid > resid_quants[["75%"]]))
)
ggplot(filtered, aes(cut, price)) + geom_boxplot()
ggplot(filtered, aes(color, price)) + geom_boxplot()
ggplot(filtered, aes(clarity, price)) + geom_boxplot()
I don’t think there is anything unusual.
Question #4
Does the final model, mod_diamonds2, do a good job of predicting diamond prices? Would you trust it to tell you how much to spend if you were buying a diamond and why?
# Use this chunk to place your code for assessing how well the model predicts diamond prices and answer question 4
mod_diamond2 <- lm(lprice ~ lcarat + color + cut + clarity, data = diamonds2)
diamonds2 <- diamonds2 %>%
add_residuals(mod_diamond2, "lresid2")
diamonds2 %>% ggplot() +
geom_histogram(aes(lresid),binwidth=.05)
diamonds2 %>%
add_predictions(mod_diamond2) %>%
add_residuals(mod_diamond2) %>%
summarise(sq_err = sqrt(mean(resid^2)),
abs_err = mean(abs(resid)),
p975_err = quantile(resid, 0.975),
p025_err = quantile(resid, 0.025))## # A tibble: 1 x 4
## sq_err abs_err p975_err p025_err
## <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
## 1 0.192 0.149 0.384 -0.369 The root mean squared error is about 0.19, meaning that the average error is about 14%.
The mean absolute error is about 0.15, meaning that the average error is about 11%.
The 95% range of residuals are between -0.37 and 0.38.
Since I know little about diamonds it is hard for me to tell if this model is good enough. Seems acceptable.