Much of the commentary on area SW carries over to this very brief report - refer to https://www.anest.uk/8whitepaper/pricycles/

Relative price movements are highly cyclical on a period of approx 16 years.

Price convergence has been the theme in London since mid 2014 - it is very consistent, month after month.

In mid 2019 this reversed and the highest priced areas have outperformed since June

The relative returns can be huge - see the final barchart for the divergence phase

Therefore don’t move to the suburbs!, get bunk beds instead

On a national basis there is a case for the far north (very cheapest areas)

These are all ‘ripple effect’ phenomena quantified via factor analysis

And it’s all about \(£/m2\), it’s not about ‘nice places’ or ‘grotty places’ - only \(£/m2\) matters

note that nothing is certain in markets so this is an opinion… albeit backed by quant models

Giles Heywood 2019-12-08

rank Sector Price/m2 Total Property average
Units Present value (B) m2 (000) Price (M) m2
1 W8 5 22,100 1000 3.0 135 2.97 130
2 W8 4 20,700 700 1.5 75 2.20 110
3 W11 3 20,500 850 2.2 105 2.54 120
4 W2 4 16,500 1430 2.0 123 1.42 90
5 W2 5 14,700 1440 1.7 115 1.17 80
6 W11 1 12,300 800 0.7 61 0.94 80
7 W10 6 11,800 980 1.1 92 1.11 90
8 W12 7 9,800 1070 0.8 86 0.79 80
9 W12 0 8,100 1120 0.8 93 0.68 80
10 W3 7 7,500 2250 1.3 176 0.59 80
11 W3 0 7,400 950 0.6 88 0.68 90
12 NW10 7 6,700 490 0.2 36 0.49 70
13 NW10 6 6,700 330 0.2 25 0.52 80
14 NW10 4 6,400 780 0.4 66 0.54 80
15 NW10 8 5,700 840 0.3 57 0.39 70
16 NW10 9 5,700 780 0.3 58 0.42 70
17 NW10 0 5,400 840 0.3 60 0.38 70
18 NW9 8 5,300 1050 0.5 97 0.49 90