Cincinnati Political Donation Analysis
Introduction
Over the past few years, the American political landscape has changed significantly. People are becoming more entrenched in there beliefs and people are becoming more polarized based on the ideology they give themselves to. Though this shift may have some toxic implications, it can be quite fascinating and informative to analyze how political donations have changed in a given city. This document aims to dissect and present political contributions in the City of Cincinnati, thus giving insight into what is happening accross the country.
There is a variety of data involved in this analysis. There are variables describing the donor such as their name, their address, where they work, and their occupation. The rest of the variables describe the donations themselves, detailing the date of reciept, the amount, the YTD total an individual has contributed, and the name, type, and party affilliaton of the committee receiving the donation.
Overall, a donor analysis of the last few years can reveal trends and show how the political climate in Cincinnati is staying the same or shifting.
A better understanding of the donation atmosphere thus far can enable us to understand how these variables are related and to levy sensible predictions when it comes to donor behavior.
Required Packages
Below is a table of packages required to run this analysis
| package.name | package.reason |
|---|---|
| tidyverse | Reads in dplyr, ggplot2, and others that allow us to change and visualize our data |
| readxls | Allows us to read in excel/csv files |
| knitr | Allows us to display our results in an RMarkDown file |
| splitstackshape | Allows us to split columns at a deliminater |
Total Contributions per Year
Each year, the Cincinnati population donates millions of dollars to political organizations. Viewing the total donations made each year can shed light on high-level trends when it comes to the city’s donation habits. The results are contained within the graph below.
We can see by the above graph that Cincinnatians give millions of dollars more during even-numbered years compared to odd numbered years. This makes sense as the even numbered years bring about the most change in the overall political landscape.
Contributions to the Major Parties
The American political landscape has long been dominated by two major parties: Republicans and Democrats. There are other parties that receive consistent contributions, but these figures pale in comparison to the millions and millions the two major parties bring in. Below are two charts detailing the contributions made to each major party over the last two election cycles.
The overall contributions to Republican and Democratic parties was down in Cycle 2 compared to Cycle 1. Whereas Democrats only saw a slight decrease in contributions, Republicans saw a dramatic drop in nearly 3/4 of a million dollars. The Republican party had a significant lead when it came to donations in Cycle 1, but found itself neck and neck with Democratic contributions in Cycle 2. This aligns well with the fact that the Republican party has become somewhat polarizing after Trump took office.
Contributions to Other Parties
There are other parties in addition to the primary Republican and Democratic party, though these parties do not receive anywhere near the funding that the primary parties get. Below are two more bar charts detailing the contributions towards the secondary parties for both election cycles.
The non-primary parties that receivied contributions from Cincinnatians in Cycle 1 are the Green Party, Independent Party, and Libertarian Party. These parties received a very small amount compared to the millions donated to the primary parties: Independant and Libertarian contributions hovered just over the 10,000 mark, and the Green party made just over half that figure. Election Cycle 2 meant a drastic drop in the already meager donations these non-primary parties were receiving, perhaps in part due to the rise of the Democratic-Farmer-Laborer party. This party saw over 20,000 dollars worth of contributions in election cycle 2, making it more money than the other 3 non-primary parties saw accross both election cycles. This tells the story that the non-primary parties, who already made paltry sums when it came to donations, are further declining in popularity and support.
Committee Types and Donation Amounts
Different types of committees tend to bring in extremely different amounts of money. The graph below outlines the various committee types and the donations each brought in over the past 4 years.
We can see that Party donations make the most money by a long shot, coming in at over 8.6 million dollars in donations. House and Senate committees also bring in a respectable amount of money. Meanwhile, Presidential and PAC donations receive little funding compared to the other 3. PAC donations barely broke half a million dollars.
To further our understanding of where these donations are going, there is a table below outlining the details of the top 4 most lucrative donations to each type of committee. Presidential is listed 8 times due to its maximum donation value appearing 8 times.
| Full Name | Committee Type | Contribution Amount | Committee Name | Party Affiliation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SHREE KULKARNI | Senate | 10400 | SITTENFELD FOR SENATE | DEMOCRATIC PARTY |
| HENRY KING | Senate | 7300 | VAN HOLLEN FOR SENATE | DEMOCRATIC PARTY |
| HENRY KING | Senate | 7300 | VAN HOLLEN FOR SENATE | DEMOCRATIC PARTY |
| HENRY KING | Senate | 7300 | VAN HOLLEN FOR SENATE | DEMOCRATIC PARTY |
| DAVID BASTOS | Presidential | 5400 | MARCO RUBIO FOR PRESIDENT | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| DAVID BASTOS | Presidential | 5400 | MARCO RUBIO FOR PRESIDENT | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| DAWN KOHORST | Presidential | 5400 | MARCO RUBIO FOR PRESIDENT | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| GARRY KOHORST | Presidential | 5400 | MARCO RUBIO FOR PRESIDENT | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| MERCER REYNOLDS | Presidential | 5400 | JEB 2016, INC. | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| STEPHEN MAHON | Presidential | 5400 | JEB 2016, INC. | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| MERCER REYNOLDS | Presidential | 5400 | JEB 2016, INC. | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| MARK RUEHLMANN | Presidential | 5400 | JEB 2016, INC. | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| R.H. CASTELLINI | Party | 56200 | NRCC | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| SUSAN CASTELLINI | Party | 41600 | REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| ROBERT CASTELLINI | Party | 41600 | REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| RICHARD ROSENTHAL | Party | 66100 | DNC SERVICES CORP./DEM. NAT’L COMMITTEE | DEMOCRATIC PARTY |
| CHRISTINE HORAN | PAC | 5400 | FRIENDS OF JOHN BOEHNER | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| DAVID WARNER | PAC | 7700 | RENACCI FOR OHIO VICTORY FUND | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| DAVID WARNER | PAC | 10000 | RENACCI FOR OHIO VICTORY FUND | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| GERALDINE WARNER | PAC | 10000 | RENACCI FOR OHIO VICTORY FUND | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
| JAMES MILLER | House | 10800 | AFTAB FOR OHIO | DEMOCRATIC PARTY |
| THOMAS SUNDERMANN | House | 10800 | AFTAB FOR OHIO | DEMOCRATIC PARTY |
| THOMAS STEGMAN | House | 10800 | AFTAB FOR OHIO | DEMOCRATIC PARTY |
| HENRY KING | House | 10800 | HURD FOR CONGRESS | REPUBLICAN PARTY |
We can see how high volume donors behave differently depending on the committee type in question. Senate donations drew in, at the higher end, indiviudal donations in the high thousands (with a maximum of just over 10,000 dollars). These donations were all for Democratic canditates. Top Presidential donations on the other hand were just over 5,000 at a maximum, and were all for Republican canditates. the top PAC donations were also exclusively Republican in nature, despite being the smallest overall type of committee donated to. High value House donations were all just shy of 11,000 dollars, and represented a mix of Republican and Democratic committees. The Party committee type differs widely from the other groups in terms of the amount donated to it, with the top 4 donations ranging from 41-67k per donation. These high level donations were all done by the Castelini family, hinting that powerful families can be highly influential with their donations.
Highest Donors in Cincinnati
Many individuals donate to political causes, but a very signficant percentage of these donations tend to come from a few indiviudals. Below is a table giving the sum contribution of the top 50 donors. We can see a sizable percentage of the overall donations come from a very small percentage of donors. Later on in this anaylsis, we’ll take a look at just how important these top tier donors are.
Page 1
| Full Name | Total Contribution |
|---|---|
| RICHARD ROSENTHAL | 772720.4 |
| ROBERT CASTELLINI | 494900.0 |
| SUSAN CASTELLINI | 368600.0 |
| GERALDINE WARNER | 322200.0 |
| DONALD OETERS | 291160.2 |
| CARL LINDNER | 256600.0 |
| WILLIAM BUTLER | 254550.0 |
| THOMAS ATKINS | 243110.0 |
| FRANCES PEPPER | 241959.8 |
| CRAIG LINDNER | 170800.0 |
| KATHERINE STRAUSS ROSENTHAL | 165820.9 |
| LOUIS BECK | 165300.0 |
| ROBERT COLETTI | 158100.0 |
| JOHN RICHARDSON | 153300.0 |
| RICHARD FARMER | 153100.0 |
| DAVID O’MALEY | 152400.0 |
| JOYCE FARMER | 149300.0 |
| DAVID WARNER | 148000.0 |
| EDWARD HATFIELD | 139961.8 |
| MICHAEL CIOFFI | 139500.0 |
Page 2
| Full Name | Total Contribution |
|---|---|
| MATTHEW GARRETSON | 109212.46 |
| NATHAN BACHMAN | 105900.00 |
| EDYTH LINDNER | 104700.00 |
| R.H. CASTELLINI | 100200.00 |
| JENNIE BERLIANT | 92011.16 |
| CHARLES GERHARDT | 91418.35 |
| ROBERT CHAVEZ | 85450.00 |
| MICHAEL VALENTINE | 83100.00 |
| THOMAS SCHIFF | 82750.00 |
| DAVID WILLIAMS | 80769.33 |
| S. LINDNER | 80600.00 |
| FRANCES LINDNER | 78000.00 |
| MANUEL CHAVEZ | 77600.00 |
| JAMES EVANS | 76500.00 |
| JOHN PEPPER | 71050.00 |
| WILLIAM DEWITT | 70325.00 |
| MARTIN CHAVEZ | 65400.00 |
| PAUL HELDMAN | 64400.00 |
| THOMAS WILLIAMS | 63964.74 |
| HAROLD SHEVERS | 62300.00 |
Page 3
| Full Name | Total Contribution |
|---|---|
| PAUL MCALEESE | 61952.62 |
| GARY HEIMAN | 61400.00 |
| FREDERICK BRYAN | 60875.00 |
| NEIL BORTZ | 60011.96 |
| RONALD JOSEPH | 59000.00 |
| DAVID HERCHE | 58500.00 |
| ROBERT POHOWSKY | 58484.47 |
| JOYCE DILL | 56471.50 |
| MARY FARMER | 55000.00 |
| JOHN BARRETT | 54800.00 |
Most Frequent Contributors
There are those who give a lot (like we just saw). There are also those who give a lot of times. Below is a table of the 20 donors who gave the most times.
Page 1
| Full Name | Times Donated |
|---|---|
| ANN RUCHHOFT | 1290 |
| MAYNARD JOHNSON | 568 |
| SUSAN SCHAPIRO | 317 |
| JOYCE DILL | 312 |
| HELENA FISCHER | 254 |
| FRANCES PEPPER | 217 |
| MONICA LIRA | 198 |
| FREDERICK BRYAN | 181 |
| JEFFREY HAAS | 172 |
| ROBERT POHOWSKY | 165 |
| ANNE CHASSER | 160 |
| BONNIE GIFFORD | 152 |
| MARGOT GOTOFF | 151 |
| DANIEL WALSH | 147 |
| DHARMA AGRAWAL | 147 |
| DONALD FOSTER | 142 |
| CAROL FRIEL | 141 |
| KATHLEEN BRINKMAN | 138 |
| NANCY NEIGHBORS | 135 |
| NORA ZORICH | 133 |
We can see that these individuals have donated at least 100 times, in some cases many times more than that. To gather an idea of whats going on in these donations, we’re going to look at the top 3 donors in terms of frequency: Ann Ruchhoft, Maynard Johnson, and Susan Schapiro.
As far as the committees they’re donating to, we can see Ann, the lead donator by far, was highly active in House, Party, and Senate donations, while still contributing lightly to presidential and PAC committees. Maynard put most of her donation power into Party committees, contributing even more times than Ann in that regard. However, she did not donate elsewhere in as significant a capacity. Susan Shapiro, while donating many times less overall than the other two, divided her efforts and contributed between 40 and 100 times accross the board (barring PAC donations). The parties each of the three donated to are displayed as well as the total each ended up contributing as a dollar amount. Each individual gave exclusively to the Democratic party. It sounds like these individuals are running their own fundraisers for particular committees. Given the high number of donations and the recurring number of small dollar donations, it stands to reason that these individuals could run an online donation collection platform of sorts.
Employer Representation
Many companies are represented in the data, but a few stand out as employing some of the highest contributors. The top 6 companies in terms of dollar amount their employees donated is displayed below 
American Financial group contriuted the most money as an employer. The Castilini companies (I’m assuming they’re different) came second and third, while a conglomerate and two arts and entertainment companies came in at 5th and 6th place for dollars employees donated.
Xavier Contributors
It can also aid our understanding of employer impact on donor behavior to explore a smaller employer, such as Xavier University. Xavier is a small Jesuit school that is unlikely to impact the political landscape at large via donations, but an analysis of how Xavier employees donate can yield insights into more modest donors.
| Full Name | Total Contributed |
|---|---|
| ANN TRACEY | 1750.00 |
| MARTHA HOLLAND | 1350.00 |
| KARL STUKENBERG | 1000.00 |
| ANN MARIE TRACEY | 650.00 |
| GEORGE W TRAUB | 632.00 |
| TERRY TOEPKER | 600.00 |
| ELIZABETH JOHNSON | 537.31 |
| AMANDA PAVLICK | 526.64 |
| EILEEN ALEXANDER | 500.00 |
| KATHLEEN REINMANN | 500.00 |
| REBECCA CULL | 500.00 |
| DARCY JACK | 404.00 |
| KATHERINE LOVELAND | 350.00 |
| ABIE INGBER | 250.00 |
| BRENDA LEVYA-GARDNER | 250.00 |
| JANET SCHULTZ | 250.00 |
| JOSEPH FELDHAUS | 250.00 |
| ROXANNE QUALLS | 250.00 |
| SUSAN ABEL | 250.00 |
| GEORGE TRAUB | 223.00 |
| ROBERT TOWNSEND | 196.00 |
| JENNIFER ROBBINS | 3.12 |
| DAN CELANI | 2.40 |
We can see by the data that Xavier donations range between 2 and 1750 dollars. Ann Tracey gave the most of the 22 Xavier donors, accounting for over a quarter of the total 8800 dollars donated.
Negative vs Postive Contributions
Though a large amount of money is donated every year, there are some who recall their donations for one reason or another. I set out to analyze the timing of these recalls to see if there are any specific months or years that saw people taking their money back in excess.
The above graphs break down positve and negative contributions by month (1 being January). We can see that positive donations pick up in the beginning of the year and remain high until the last couple months of the year. On the negative side, it looks like the first 3 months of the year are when people tend to recall there donations.
A look at the yearly breakdown shows positive contributions spiking during even numbered years, and the negative contributions being mainly present in 2015 and 2018. 2018 was a year of certainty of some and uncertainty for others, as this year saw nearly the highest amount of positive contributions and the highest negative contribution as well.
What Percentage of Total Donors do the top 10, 20, 30, 40, and 50 donors make?
Given the political nature of this analysis, I thought it would be interesting to see just how influential a small amount of indivudals can be. To explore this question, I have prepared a table assessing the highest 50 contibutors, and the total percentage of Cincinnati donations that come from each additional group of 10.
| Top X Donors | Cumulative Percentage of Donations |
|---|---|
| 10 | 16.79535 |
| 20 | 24.29089 |
| 30 | 28.88968 |
| 40 | 32.38059 |
| 50 | 35.26369 |
By creating a cumulative percentage table, we can sum the contributions of the top X donors and call out how much of the overall Cincinnati donations these indivudals account for. Out of 8,670 total donors, we can see immediately that the top 50 donors gave over 35% of sum total of donations in Cincinnati. The top 10 alone account for nearly 17%. Though the marginal differences start to diminish towards the bottom of the table, its can be surmised that a select few individuals are probably getting the most representation, desipte the thousands of donors present in Cincinnati.