SGU 2019 Science or Fiction Stats
Wayne Heller
December 30, 2019
Background
The Skeptics Guide to the Universe is a weekly podcast hosted by Dr. Steven Novella. Each week during this segment of the podcast, Dr. Novella presents his panel of skeptics with 3 or 4 science-related news items, 1 of which is fiction. And each panelist must determine which is the fiction.
Year End Episode
At the end of the calendar year, Dr. Novella host a year in review episode where the panel reviews their performance at Science or Fiction.
2019 Summary - Episodes# 704 - 755
- NOTE: Episode 715 excluded - the correct answer was contested and negated in a subsequent episode.
- Cara Wins Overall and had best performance on questions with and withouts themes
- Panelist performance on questions without a theme decreased dramatically from last year (except for Cara)
- The panel performs best with Cara or Bob answer first
- Going first is a disadvantage for everyone except Cara this year
- Steve had twice as many host sweeps this year compared to last
- There were fewer panelist sweeps this year compared to last
- Steve snapped a 6 game losing streak as panelist starting with episode 686.
- Bob should consider GWC Go with Cara more often
- Over the last 2 years, the answering order of {Cara, Jay, Evan, Bob} and {Cara, Bob, Evan, Jay} have answered correctly over 80% of the time.
- Over the same period, the answering order of {Jay, Bob, Evan, Cara} has only answered correctly 33% of the time.
2019 Summary Statistics
NOTE: ALL includes contributions from Special Guest Rogues not listed
Raw data and some visuals are located in This Excel file Click the Download button on this github page.
Last Year comparison is based on Episodes 652 - 703
Overall Performance
| Panelist | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| ALL | 55.7% | 60.7% |
| Bob | 48.0% | 55.1% |
| Cara | 70.0% | 61.4% |
| Evan | 54.2% | 69.4% |
| Jay | 60.0% | 63.3% |
| Steve | 25.0% | 0% |
Performance For Segments WITH Themes
| Panelist | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| ALL | 54.7% | 51.8% |
| Bob | 46.4% | 36.8% |
| Cara | 72.7% | 66.7% |
| Evan | 46.4% | 55.0% |
| Jay | 64.3% | 60.0% |
| Steve | 25.0% | 0% |
Performance For Segments WITHOUT Themes
| Panelist | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| ALL | 57.1% | 67.2% |
| Bob | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Cara | 66.7% | 57.7% |
| Evan | 65.0% | 79.3% |
| Jay | 54.5% | 65.5% |
Solo Wins
| Cara | 3 |
| Evan | 3 |
| Bob | 2 |
| Jay | 2 |
| George | 1 |
| TOTAL | 11 |
Longest Consecutive Winning Streak
| Cara | 7 |
| Jay | 6 |
| Bob | 3 |
| Evan | 3 |
| Steve | 1 |
Longest Consecutive Losing Streak
| Bob | 5 |
| Jay | 4 |
| Steve | 3 |
| Evan | 3 |
| Cara | 2 |
Panel Performance When Answering First
A measure of how well the panel of rogues perform based on who answers first
| Panelist | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Cara | 71.8% | 72.9% |
| Bob | 70.6% | 65.7% |
| Evan | 50.0% | 59.3% |
| Jay | 40.8% | 57.8% |
Individual Panelist Performance When Answering First
A measure of an individuals performance when answering first
| Panelist | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Cara | 70.0% | 58.3% |
| Evan | 36.4% | 64.3% |
| ALL | 33.3% | 54.9% |
| Jay | 23.1% | 41.7% |
| Bob | 22.2% | 66.7% |
Host Sweeps
| Host | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| ALL | 5 | 4 |
| Steve | 4 | 2 |
| RichardS | 1 | NA |
| Bob | NA | 1 |
| Jay | NA | 1 |
Panelist Sweeps
How many times a panelist has participated in a sweep of the host
| Panelist | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|
| Bob | 9 | 12 |
| Jay | 9 | 12 |
| Cara | 8 | 9 |
| Evan | 8 | 11 |
Duo Performance
How well each pair of rouges performs when choosing a DIFFERENT answer from their peer
For example, when Cara answers differently from Bob, she is correct 61.9% of the time.
When Bob answers differently from Cara, he is correct 19.0% of the time.
| Rogue | Bob | Cara | Evan | Jay | Steve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob | NA | 19.0% | 34.8% | 28.6% | 0% |
| Cara | 61.9% | NA | 44.4% | 42.1% | 33.3% |
| Evan | 47.8% | 33.3% | NA | 37.5% | 0% |
| Jay | 50.0% | 21.1% | 45.8% | NA | 25.0% |
| Steve | 100% | 33.3% | 0% | 25.0% | NA |
How well each pair of rouges performs when choosing the SAME answer as their peer
For example, when Jay and Evan pick the same answer they are correct 73.9% of the time.
Note: Numbers along the diagonal are the same as individual performance for the year.
| Rogue | Bob | Cara | Evan | Jay | Steve |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob | 48.0% | 83.3% | 62.5% | 76.2% | 0% |
| Cara | 83.3% | 70.0% | 89.5% | 95.2% | NA |
| Evan | 62.5% | 89.5% | 54.2% | 73.9% | 50.0% |
| Jay | 76.2% | 95.2% | 73.9% | 60.0% | NA |
| Steve | 0% | NA | 50.0% | NA | 25.0% |
How Well Each Answering Order Combination Has Performed Since 2018
For each combination, the number of times this combination has occurred (frequency), the total correct answers, total possible answers, and the accuracy percentage (correct/possible) is listed below.
Answering Order Combinations with Frequency >= 3
| First | Second | Third | Fourth | Fifth | Frequency | Correct | Possible | PanelistSweeps | HostSweeps | Accuracy(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cara | Jay | Evan | Bob | NA | 5 | 17 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 85.0 |
| Cara | Bob | Evan | Jay | NA | 6 | 20 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 83.3 |
| Evan | Cara | Jay | Bob | NA | 3 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Bob | Evan | Cara | Jay | NA | 4 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 68.8 |
| Bob | Jay | Evan | Cara | NA | 4 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 68.8 |
| Jay | Bob | Evan | NA | NA | 5 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 66.7 |
| Evan | Bob | Jay | NA | NA | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Evan | Bob | Jay | Cara | NA | 3 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Evan | Jay | Bob | Cara | NA | 3 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Jay | Bob | Cara | Evan | NA | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Jay | Evan | Cara | Bob | NA | 6 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 45.8 |
| Evan | Bob | Cara | Jay | NA | 7 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 42.9 |
| Cara | Evan | Bob | Jay | NA | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 41.7 |
| Jay | Bob | Evan | Cara | NA | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
Answering Order Combinations Full Detail
| First | Second | Third | Fourth | Fifth | Frequency | Correct | Possible | PanelistSweeps | HostSweeps | Accuracy(%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bob | Cara | Jay | NA | NA | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 |
| Bob | Cara | Jay | Evan | NA | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 |
| Bob | Cara | Jay | Evan | George | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 |
| Brian | Cara | Evan | Bob | Jay | 1 | 5 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 |
| Cara | Evan | Jay | Bob | NA | 1 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 |
| Cara | Jay | Bob | NA | NA | 1 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 100.0 |
| Cara | Jay | Evan | Bob | NA | 5 | 17 | 20 | 2 | 0 | 85.0 |
| Cara | Bob | Evan | Jay | NA | 6 | 20 | 24 | 3 | 0 | 83.3 |
| Guest | Jay | Cara | Evan | Bob | 1 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 80.0 |
| Evan | Cara | Jay | Bob | NA | 3 | 9 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Bob | Cara | Evan | Jay | NA | 2 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Bob | Jay | Cara | Evan | NA | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Evan | Cara | Bob | Jay | NA | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Guest | Evan | Jay | Bob | NA | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Richard | Evan | Jay | Bob | NA | 1 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 75.0 |
| Bob | Evan | Cara | Jay | NA | 4 | 11 | 16 | 0 | 0 | 68.8 |
| Bob | Jay | Evan | Cara | NA | 4 | 11 | 16 | 1 | 0 | 68.8 |
| Jay | Bob | Evan | NA | NA | 5 | 10 | 15 | 2 | 1 | 66.7 |
| Evan | Bob | Jay | NA | NA | 3 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Evan | Bob | Jay | Cara | NA | 3 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Evan | Jay | Bob | Cara | NA | 3 | 8 | 12 | 1 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Jay | Bob | Cara | Evan | NA | 3 | 8 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Bob | Jay | Cara | NA | NA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Bob | Jay | Evan | NA | NA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Cara | Evan | Bob | NA | NA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Jay | Evan | Bob | NA | NA | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 66.7 |
| Cara | Bob | Jay | Evan | NA | 2 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 0 | 62.5 |
| Jay | Cara | Evan | Bob | NA | 2 | 5 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 62.5 |
| Cara | Steve | Jay | Evan | George | 1 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 60.0 |
| Cara | Jay | Bob | Evan | NA | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 |
| Evan | Jay | Bob | NA | NA | 2 | 3 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 50.0 |
| Jay | Cara | Bob | Evan | NA | 2 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 |
| Steve | Bob | Jay | Cara | NA | 1 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 50.0 |
| Jay | Evan | Cara | Bob | NA | 6 | 11 | 24 | 1 | 0 | 45.8 |
| Evan | Bob | Cara | Jay | NA | 7 | 12 | 28 | 0 | 1 | 42.9 |
| Cara | Evan | Bob | Jay | NA | 3 | 5 | 12 | 0 | 1 | 41.7 |
| Evan | Jay | Cara | Bob | Marsh | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.0 |
| Guest | Evan | Bob | Cara | Jay | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.0 |
| Guest | Jay | Evan | Cara | Bob | 1 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 40.0 |
| Jay | Bob | Evan | Cara | NA | 3 | 4 | 12 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
| George | Bob | Steve | Cara | Jay | 1 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
| Jay | Bob | Cara | NA | NA | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 33.3 |
| Evan | Jay | Cara | Bob | NA | 2 | 2 | 8 | 0 | 0 | 25.0 |
| Guest | Jay | Evan | Bob | NA | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 25.0 |
| Devon | Bob | Cara | Evan | Jay | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 |
| Jay | Steve | Evan | Cara | George | 1 | 1 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 20.0 |
| Bob | Cara | Jay | Evan | Bill | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Bob | Evan | NA | NA | NA | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| George | Jay | Steve | Cara | Evan | 1 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Jay | Evan | Steve | Bob | NA | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |
| Joe | Bob | Steve | Evan | NA | 1 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0.0 |