Overview

This document covers output from five regression models run against four major age classes in this river. The regression models are:

  • Sibling
  • log(Sibling)
  • LogY(Sibling)
  • LnR vs. LnR
  • Ricker

The first three forecast models are based on linear regressions of sibling relationships. Below are the sibling relationships that are relevant for each of the four major age classes that we are forecasting:

Forecast Age Sibling
Age.12 Age.11
Age.22 Age.21
Age.13 Age.12
Age.23 Age.22

Model output

Each model output consists of a table and two graphs. The table shows the most recent 10 years of observed returns for the age being forecast (‘Observed Return’) and the relevant sibling return (‘Sibling Return’) shown in bold black text. Brood and return years are shown in blue text. Two regression model statistics (R-squared and P-value of the slope) are shown in red. Model forecasted returns are shown in bold black text with a yellow highlight. Error measurements are shown in green text. Error measurements shown are absolute deviation (AD), absolute percent error (APE), percent error (PE) and arc tan percent error (AAPE).

Absolute deviation (AD) is defined as

\[\ AD = O - F\] where

O = Observed Return

F = Forecasted Return

Absolute Percent error (APE) is defined as

\[\ APE = ABS(1 - F/O)\] Percent error (PE) is defined as

\[\ PE = 1 - F/O\] Arctangent percent error (AAPE) is defined as \[\ AAPE = arctan(abs((O - F)/O))\]

Graphical output

For each model tabular output is followed by two graphs. In the first graph the model data being regressed is shown with a linear regression (lm) plotted . In the second graph the regression residuals are plotted.

Age class summary

At the end of each age class section a summary table is shown. only model outputs with a slope p-value < 0.1 are shown in this table. This table summarizes our error measurements for the most recent 3 and 5-years. For example, the MAD.3 column shows the mean absolute deviation for the most recent three years and the MAD.5 column shows the mean absolute deviation for the most recent five years. Also shown are the R squared, P-value and forecast associated with each model.

Now, a quick note for the R geeks reading this: I’m using a new (it looks like it went up on CRAN in 2016) R package called formattable for this table. This package is geared for high end formating of markdown tables and looks pretty useful. Currently I’m using the color_tiles command on the MAAPE.3 and MAAPE.5 columns to draw the eye to the smallest values by putting highlighting the min value with the light end of a color gradient. I’m also using the color_bar command on the forecast column to visually represent the relative size of each forecast.

age.12

Below are model outputs using data from 1972

sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2007 53,088 8,769 0.356 0.000 1,021,715 968,627 18.25 -18.25 1.52
2012 2008 630,133 317 0.316 0.000 463,194 166,939 0.26 0.26 0.26
2013 2009 305,157 5,484 0.315 0.000 780,961 475,804 1.56 -1.56 1.00
2014 2010 537,386 10,189 0.307 0.000 1,048,429 511,043 0.95 -0.95 0.76
2015 2011 444,756 36,528 0.293 0.000 2,540,362 2,095,606 4.71 -4.71 1.36
2016 2012 1,977,511 38,199 0.141 0.010 1,728,081 249,430 0.13 0.13 0.13
2017 2013 2,859,582 162,141 0.219 0.001 6,086,871 3,227,289 1.13 -1.13 0.85
2018 2014 2,156,590 102,286 0.315 0.000 2,283,748 127,158 0.06 -0.06 0.06
2019 2015 11,551,892 295,278 0.369 0.000 5,426,016 6,125,876 0.53 0.53 0.49
2020 2016 NA 29,387 0.800 0.000 1,366,370 NA NA NA NA

ln.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2007 53,088 8,769 0.095 0.040 1,257,807 1,204,719 22.69 -22.69 1.53
2012 2008 630,133 317 0.086 0.046 257,569 372,564 0.59 0.59 0.53
2013 2009 305,157 5,484 0.088 0.041 872,476 567,319 1.86 -1.86 1.08
2014 2010 537,386 10,189 0.088 0.039 1,065,951 528,565 0.98 -0.98 0.78
2015 2011 444,756 36,528 0.090 0.036 1,723,209 1,278,452 2.87 -2.87 1.24
2016 2012 1,977,511 38,199 0.089 0.034 1,588,233 389,278 0.20 0.20 0.19
2017 2013 2,859,582 162,141 0.096 0.028 2,863,327 3,745 0.00 0.00 0.00
2018 2014 2,156,590 102,286 0.104 0.021 2,384,232 227,641 0.11 -0.11 0.11
2019 2015 11,551,892 295,278 0.110 0.017 3,603,001 7,948,891 0.69 0.69 0.60
2020 2016 NA 29,387 0.124 0.011 1,555,401 NA NA NA NA

lnY.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2007 53,088 8,769 0.009 0.264 364,780 311,692 5.87 -5.87 1.40
2012 2008 630,133 317 0.007 0.275 100,996 529,137 0.84 0.84 0.70
2013 2009 305,157 5,484 0.006 0.279 218,610 86,547 0.28 0.28 0.28
2014 2010 537,386 10,189 0.007 0.270 423,094 114,292 0.21 0.21 0.21
2015 2011 444,756 36,528 0.009 0.253 16,783,762 16,339,005 36.74 -36.74 1.54
2016 2012 1,977,511 38,199 0.002 0.308 4,387,970 2,410,458 1.22 -1.22 0.88
2017 2013 2,859,582 162,141 0.008 0.254 196,935,616,155 196,932,756,573 68,867.67 -68,867.67 1.57
2018 2014 2,156,590 102,286 -0.002 0.340 2,473,539 316,948 0.15 -0.15 0.15
2019 2015 11,551,892 295,278 0.005 0.277 417,031,482 405,479,589 35.10 -35.10 1.54
2020 2016 NA 29,387 0.018 0.187 282,961 NA NA NA NA

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2007 53,088 8,769 0.061 0.083 386,664 333,576 6.28 -6.28 1.41
2012 2008 630,133 317 0.054 0.092 288,763 341,370 0.54 0.54 0.50
2013 2009 305,157 5,484 0.056 0.086 250,934 54,223 0.18 0.18 0.18
2014 2010 537,386 10,189 0.057 0.081 174,891 362,495 0.67 0.67 0.59
2015 2011 444,756 36,528 0.054 0.083 192,860 251,897 0.57 0.57 0.52
2016 2012 1,977,511 38,199 0.053 0.083 299,544 1,677,967 0.85 0.85 0.70
2017 2013 2,859,582 162,141 0.054 0.077 264,302 2,595,280 0.91 0.91 0.74
2018 2014 2,156,590 102,286 0.052 0.079 402,294 1,754,296 0.81 0.81 0.68
2019 2015 11,551,892 295,278 0.057 0.068 915,090 10,636,803 0.92 0.92 0.74
2020 2016 NA 29,387 0.082 0.033 817,213 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2007 53,088 8,769 -0.025 0.685 346,317 293,229 5.52 -5.52 1.39
2012 2008 630,133 317 -0.025 0.720 271,678 358,455 0.57 0.57 0.52
2013 2009 305,157 5,484 -0.025 0.715 244,193 60,964 0.20 0.20 0.20
2014 2010 537,386 10,189 -0.024 0.713 185,715 351,671 0.65 0.65 0.58
2015 2011 444,756 36,528 -0.024 0.743 202,035 242,721 0.55 0.55 0.50
2016 2012 1,977,511 38,199 -0.024 0.762 284,623 1,692,888 0.86 0.86 0.71
2017 2013 2,859,582 162,141 -0.023 0.759 261,414 2,598,168 0.91 0.91 0.74
2018 2014 2,156,590 102,286 -0.023 0.787 365,418 1,791,172 0.83 0.83 0.69
2019 2015 11,551,892 295,278 -0.022 0.754 727,738 10,824,154 0.94 0.94 0.75
2020 2016 NA 29,387 -0.012 0.494 714,205 NA NA NA NA

5-year Average

Return Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2,011 53,088 1 53,087 1.00 1.00 0.79
2,012 630,133 1,088,538 -458,405 0.73 -0.73 0.63
2,013 305,157 817,574 -512,417 1.68 -1.68 1.03
2,014 537,386 320,809 216,576 0.40 0.40 0.38
2,015 444,756 334,141 110,615 0.25 0.25 0.24
2,016 1,977,511 394,104 1,583,407 0.80 0.80 0.68
2,017 2,859,582 778,989 2,080,593 0.73 0.73 0.63
2,018 2,156,590 1,224,879 931,712 0.43 0.43 0.41
2,019 11,551,892 1,595,165 9,956,727 0.86 0.86 0.71
2,020 NA 3,798,066 NA NA NA NA

summary

R.Sq P.Val Forecast Model MAD.3 MAPE.3 MPE.3 MAAPE.3 MAD.5 MAPE.5 MPE.5 MAAPE.5
0.80 0.000 1,366,370 sibling 3,160,108 57% -21% 0.46 2,365,072 131% -104% 0.58
0.12 0.011 1,555,401 ln.sibling 2,726,759 26% 19% 0.24 1,969,602 77% -41% 0.43
0.08 0.033 817,213 lnS.lnR 4,995,460 88% 88% 0.72 3,383,249 81% 81% 0.68
NA NA 3,798,066 5-yr Avg 4,323,011 67% 67% 0.58 2,932,611 61% 61% 0.53

age.22

sibling

Below are model outputs using data from 1972

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2006 1,632,027 121,161 0.494 0.000 8,249,664 6,617,637 4.05 -4.05 1.33
2012 2007 3,376,161 71,868 0.351 0.000 5,017,570 1,641,409 0.49 -0.49 0.45
2013 2008 1,104,563 58,244 0.341 0.000 4,366,376 3,261,813 2.95 -2.95 1.24
2014 2009 2,761,971 122,169 0.315 0.000 6,848,681 4,086,710 1.48 -1.48 0.98
2015 2010 5,985,044 274,064 0.259 0.001 11,579,982 5,594,939 0.93 -0.93 0.75
2016 2011 3,901,938 532,979 0.214 0.002 14,917,073 11,015,135 2.82 -2.82 1.23
2017 2012 4,775,925 353,152 0.063 0.064 5,928,410 1,152,485 0.24 -0.24 0.24
2018 2013 467,780 88,059 0.065 0.058 3,716,665 3,248,885 6.95 -6.95 1.43
2019 2014 1,280,101 73,755 0.059 0.066 3,532,402 2,252,302 1.76 -1.76 1.05
2020 2015 NA 66,990 0.058 0.066 3,431,073 NA NA NA NA

ln.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2006 1,632,027 121,161 0.198 0.005 3,927,539 2,295,511 1.41 -1.41 0.95
2012 2007 3,376,161 71,868 0.175 0.007 3,414,513 38,352 0.01 -0.01 0.01
2013 2008 1,104,563 58,244 0.178 0.006 3,289,779 2,185,216 1.98 -1.98 1.10
2014 2009 2,761,971 122,169 0.156 0.009 3,575,753 813,782 0.29 -0.29 0.29
2015 2010 5,985,044 274,064 0.154 0.009 4,028,952 1,956,091 0.33 0.33 0.32
2016 2011 3,901,938 532,979 0.171 0.005 4,631,281 729,344 0.19 -0.19 0.18
2017 2012 4,775,925 353,152 0.176 0.004 4,263,540 512,385 0.11 0.11 0.11
2018 2013 467,780 88,059 0.187 0.003 3,400,635 2,932,855 6.27 -6.27 1.41
2019 2014 1,280,101 73,755 0.136 0.009 3,098,046 1,817,945 1.42 -1.42 0.96
2020 2015 NA 66,990 0.125 0.012 2,974,177 NA NA NA NA

lnY.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2006 1,632,027 121,161 0.335 0.000 8,873,526 7,241,499 4.44 -4.44 1.35
2012 2007 3,376,161 71,868 0.239 0.002 3,845,745 469,584 0.14 -0.14 0.14
2013 2008 1,104,563 58,244 0.241 0.001 3,285,935 2,181,372 1.97 -1.97 1.10
2014 2009 2,761,971 122,169 0.216 0.002 6,257,958 3,495,987 1.27 -1.27 0.90
2015 2010 5,985,044 274,064 0.193 0.003 23,727,856 17,742,813 2.96 -2.96 1.25
2016 2011 3,901,938 532,979 0.176 0.005 68,714,187 64,812,249 16.61 -16.61 1.51
2017 2012 4,775,925 353,152 0.076 0.047 5,937,630 1,161,705 0.24 -0.24 0.24
2018 2013 467,780 88,059 0.087 0.034 2,856,279 2,388,499 5.11 -5.11 1.38
2019 2014 1,280,101 73,755 0.069 0.051 2,635,042 1,354,941 1.06 -1.06 0.81
2020 2015 NA 66,990 0.067 0.051 2,547,854 NA NA NA NA

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2006 1,632,027 121,161 0.185 0.006 3,364,859 1,732,832 1.06 -1.06 0.82
2012 2007 3,376,161 71,868 0.172 0.008 3,206,458 169,703 0.05 0.05 0.05
2013 2008 1,104,563 58,244 0.174 0.007 2,867,305 1,762,741 1.60 -1.60 1.01
2014 2009 2,761,971 122,169 0.163 0.008 2,571,165 190,806 0.07 0.07 0.07
2015 2010 5,985,044 274,064 0.163 0.007 2,142,158 3,842,885 0.64 0.64 0.57
2016 2011 3,901,938 532,979 0.145 0.010 2,283,354 1,618,583 0.41 0.41 0.39
2017 2012 4,775,925 353,152 0.140 0.010 2,846,469 1,929,457 0.40 0.40 0.38
2018 2013 467,780 88,059 0.141 0.009 2,649,966 2,182,186 4.66 -4.66 1.36
2019 2014 1,280,101 73,755 0.127 0.012 3,043,635 1,763,534 1.38 -1.38 0.94
2020 2015 NA 66,990 0.116 0.015 4,253,243 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2006 1,632,027 121,161 -0.028 0.763 3,376,122 1,744,095 1.07 -1.07 0.82
2012 2007 3,376,161 71,868 -0.026 0.703 3,228,258 147,904 0.04 0.04 0.04
2013 2008 1,104,563 58,244 -0.025 0.701 2,892,873 1,788,309 1.62 -1.62 1.02
2014 2009 2,761,971 122,169 -0.024 0.697 2,595,230 166,741 0.06 0.06 0.06
2015 2010 5,985,044 274,064 -0.023 0.691 2,151,136 3,833,908 0.64 0.64 0.57
2016 2011 3,901,938 532,979 -0.019 0.592 2,304,242 1,597,696 0.41 0.41 0.39
2017 2012 4,775,925 353,152 -0.016 0.546 2,883,164 1,892,762 0.40 0.40 0.38
2018 2013 467,780 88,059 -0.016 0.544 2,684,651 2,216,872 4.74 -4.74 1.36
2019 2014 1,280,101 73,755 -0.019 0.620 3,075,720 1,795,619 1.40 -1.40 0.95
2020 2015 NA 66,990 -0.017 0.578 4,174,655 NA NA NA NA

5-year Average

Return Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2,011 1,632,027 1 1,632,026 1.00 1.00 0.79
2,012 3,376,161 2,699,660 676,501 0.20 0.20 0.20
2,013 1,104,563 3,164,756 -2,060,192 1.87 -1.87 1.08
2,014 2,761,971 3,000,387 -238,416 0.09 -0.09 0.09
2,015 5,985,044 2,348,185 3,636,859 0.61 0.61 0.55
2,016 3,901,938 2,971,953 929,984 0.24 0.24 0.23
2,017 4,775,925 3,425,935 1,349,990 0.28 0.28 0.28
2,018 467,780 3,705,888 -3,238,108 6.92 -6.92 1.43
2,019 1,280,101 3,578,531 -2,298,431 1.80 -1.80 1.06
2,020 NA 3,282,157 NA NA NA NA

summary

R.Sq P.Val Forecast Model MAD.3 MAPE.3 MPE.3 MAAPE.3 MAD.5 MAPE.5 MPE.5 MAAPE.5
0.06 0.066 3,431,073 sibling 2,217,891 298% -298% 0.91 4,652,749 254% -254% 0.94
0.12 0.012 2,974,177 ln.sibling 1,754,395 259% -252% 0.83 1,589,724 166% -148% 0.60
0.07 0.051 2,547,854 lnY.sibling 1,635,048 213% -213% 0.81 17,492,041 519% -519% 1.04
0.12 0.015 4,253,243 lnS.lnR 1,958,392 214% -187% 0.90 2,267,329 150% -91% 0.73
NA NA 3,282,157 5-yr Avg (1,395,516) 300% -281% 0.92 76,059 196% -151% 0.71

age.13

sibling

Below are model outputs using data from 1972

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2006 253,936 144,943 0.655 0 496,905 242,969 0.96 -0.96 0.76
2012 2007 429,303 53,088 0.661 0 357,675 71,628 0.17 0.17 0.17
2013 2008 1,090,637 630,133 0.665 0 1,165,625 74,988 0.07 -0.07 0.07
2014 2009 488,704 305,157 0.665 0 710,522 221,817 0.45 -0.45 0.43
2015 2010 671,706 537,386 0.668 0 1,028,000 356,295 0.53 -0.53 0.49
2016 2011 1,095,740 444,756 0.667 0 888,911 206,830 0.19 0.19 0.19
2017 2012 1,278,331 1,977,511 0.667 0 3,037,864 1,759,533 1.38 -1.38 0.94
2018 2013 1,945,681 2,859,582 0.610 0 3,960,509 2,014,828 1.04 -1.04 0.80
2019 2014 2,005,628 2,156,590 0.550 0 2,752,324 746,696 0.37 -0.37 0.36
2020 2015 NA 11,551,892 0.546 0 12,564,446 NA NA NA NA

ln.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2006 253,936 144,943 0.463 0 553,232 299,296 1.18 -1.18 0.87
2012 2007 429,303 53,088 0.461 0 384,019 45,285 0.11 0.11 0.11
2013 2008 1,090,637 630,133 0.463 0 893,053 197,584 0.18 0.18 0.18
2014 2009 488,704 305,157 0.466 0 702,122 213,417 0.44 -0.44 0.41
2015 2010 671,706 537,386 0.464 0 842,922 171,216 0.25 -0.25 0.25
2016 2011 1,095,740 444,756 0.464 0 785,508 310,232 0.28 0.28 0.28
2017 2012 1,278,331 1,977,511 0.465 0 1,315,979 37,648 0.03 -0.03 0.03
2018 2013 1,945,681 2,859,582 0.469 0 1,489,842 455,839 0.23 0.23 0.23
2019 2014 2,005,628 2,156,590 0.479 0 1,369,560 636,068 0.32 0.32 0.31
2020 2015 NA 11,551,892 0.487 0 2,483,232 NA NA NA NA

lnY.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2006 253,936 144,943 0.564 0 325,906 71,971 0.28 -0.28 0.28
2012 2007 429,303 53,088 0.571 0 284,416 144,887 0.34 0.34 0.33
2013 2008 1,090,637 630,133 0.570 0 630,815 459,821 0.42 0.42 0.40
2014 2009 488,704 305,157 0.567 0 413,537 75,167 0.15 0.15 0.15
2015 2010 671,706 537,386 0.567 0 567,828 103,878 0.15 0.15 0.15
2016 2011 1,095,740 444,756 0.567 0 503,730 592,010 0.54 0.54 0.50
2017 2012 1,278,331 1,977,511 0.558 0 3,963,464 2,685,132 2.10 -2.10 1.13
2018 2013 1,945,681 2,859,582 0.540 0 10,509,099 8,563,419 4.40 -4.40 1.35
2019 2014 2,005,628 2,156,590 0.508 0 3,355,683 1,350,054 0.67 -0.67 0.59
2020 2015 NA 11,551,892 0.514 0 75,552,085,746 NA NA NA NA

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2006 253,936 144,943 0.024 0.189 805,360 551,424 2.17 -2.17 1.14
2012 2007 429,303 53,088 0.017 0.218 758,857 329,554 0.77 -0.77 0.65
2013 2008 1,090,637 630,133 0.015 0.225 687,208 403,428 0.37 0.37 0.35
2014 2009 488,704 305,157 0.016 0.214 656,868 168,164 0.34 -0.34 0.33
2015 2010 671,706 537,386 0.017 0.208 571,586 100,119 0.15 0.15 0.15
2016 2011 1,095,740 444,756 0.017 0.204 587,501 508,239 0.46 0.46 0.43
2017 2012 1,278,331 1,977,511 0.016 0.211 694,480 583,851 0.46 0.46 0.43
2018 2013 1,945,681 2,859,582 0.017 0.201 662,984 1,282,697 0.66 0.66 0.58
2019 2014 2,005,628 2,156,590 0.016 0.202 774,477 1,231,151 0.61 0.61 0.55
2020 2015 NA 11,551,892 0.020 0.179 1,054,411 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2006 253,936 144,943 -0.005 0.371 796,666 542,731 2.14 -2.14 1.13
2012 2007 429,303 53,088 -0.001 0.330 758,620 329,317 0.77 -0.77 0.65
2013 2008 1,090,637 630,133 0.002 0.308 706,327 384,310 0.35 0.35 0.34
2014 2009 488,704 305,157 0.003 0.303 683,371 194,666 0.40 -0.40 0.38
2015 2010 671,706 537,386 0.003 0.300 602,143 69,563 0.10 0.10 0.10
2016 2011 1,095,740 444,756 0.004 0.286 617,544 478,196 0.44 0.44 0.41
2017 2012 1,278,331 1,977,511 0.008 0.261 713,743 564,588 0.44 0.44 0.42
2018 2013 1,945,681 2,859,582 0.008 0.257 690,049 1,255,632 0.65 0.65 0.57
2019 2014 2,005,628 2,156,590 0.010 0.242 775,554 1,230,074 0.61 0.61 0.55
2020 2015 NA 11,551,892 0.008 0.258 876,405 NA NA NA NA

5-year Average

Return Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2,011 253,936 1 253,935 1.00 1.00 0.79
2,012 429,303 1,734,058 -1,304,755 3.04 -3.04 1.25
2,013 1,090,637 1,379,298 -288,661 0.26 -0.26 0.26
2,014 488,704 1,087,094 -598,390 1.22 -1.22 0.89
2,015 671,706 492,982 178,724 0.27 0.27 0.26
2,016 1,095,740 586,857 508,883 0.46 0.46 0.43
2,017 1,278,331 755,218 523,113 0.41 0.41 0.39
2,018 1,945,681 925,024 1,020,657 0.52 0.52 0.48
2,019 2,005,628 1,096,032 909,596 0.45 0.45 0.43
2,020 NA 1,399,417 NA NA NA NA

summary

R.Sq P.Val Forecast Model MAD.3 MAPE.3 MPE.3 MAAPE.3 MAD.5 MAPE.5 MPE.5 MAAPE.5
0.55 0 12,564,446 sibling 1,507,019 92% -92% 0.70 1,016,836 70% -62% 0.56
0.49 0 2,483,232 ln.sibling 376,518 19% 17% 0.19 322,200 22% 11% 0.22
0.51 0 75,552,085,746 lnY.sibling 4,199,535 239% -239% 1.02 2,658,899 157% -129% 0.74
NA NA 1,399,417 5-yr Avg 817,789 46% 46% 0.43 628,195 42% 42% 0.40

age.23

sibling

Below are model outputs using data from 1972

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2005 2,550,953 2,866,201 0.542 0 2,088,851 462,102 0.18 0.18 0.18
2012 2006 1,369,945 1,632,027 0.542 0 1,342,275 27,670 0.02 0.02 0.02
2013 2007 2,456,691 3,376,161 0.546 0 2,418,793 37,898 0.02 0.02 0.02
2014 2008 943,044 1,104,563 0.546 0 1,019,383 76,339 0.08 -0.08 0.08
2015 2009 785,912 2,761,971 0.553 0 2,038,627 1,252,716 1.59 -1.59 1.01
2016 2010 2,345,584 5,985,044 0.551 0 4,003,621 1,658,037 0.71 -0.71 0.62
2017 2011 3,275,009 3,901,938 0.536 0 2,662,232 612,777 0.19 0.19 0.18
2018 2012 1,137,566 4,775,925 0.536 0 3,207,339 2,069,773 1.82 -1.82 1.07
2019 2013 495,626 467,780 0.517 0 576,749 81,122 0.16 -0.16 0.16
2020 2014 NA 1,280,101 0.527 0 1,057,111 NA NA NA NA

ln.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2005 2,550,953 2,866,201 0.533 0 1,952,283 598,670 0.23 0.23 0.23
2012 2006 1,369,945 1,632,027 0.532 0 1,323,321 46,624 0.03 0.03 0.03
2013 2007 2,456,691 3,376,161 0.535 0 2,210,285 246,406 0.10 0.10 0.10
2014 2008 943,044 1,104,563 0.536 0 1,008,704 65,660 0.07 -0.07 0.07
2015 2009 785,912 2,761,971 0.546 0 1,921,517 1,135,606 1.44 -1.44 0.97
2016 2010 2,345,584 5,985,044 0.525 0 3,236,435 890,851 0.38 -0.38 0.36
2017 2011 3,275,009 3,901,938 0.522 0 2,364,609 910,400 0.28 0.28 0.27
2018 2012 1,137,566 4,775,925 0.525 0 2,750,986 1,613,420 1.42 -1.42 0.96
2019 2013 495,626 467,780 0.497 0 548,803 53,176 0.11 -0.11 0.11
2020 2014 NA 1,280,101 0.530 0 1,080,682 NA NA NA NA

lnY.sibling

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2005 2,550,953 2,866,201 0.540 0 1,565,006 985,947 0.39 0.39 0.37
2012 2006 1,369,945 1,632,027 0.532 0 1,213,315 156,630 0.11 0.11 0.11
2013 2007 2,456,691 3,376,161 0.533 0 1,783,359 673,332 0.27 0.27 0.27
2014 2008 943,044 1,104,563 0.531 0 1,097,592 154,548 0.16 -0.16 0.16
2015 2009 785,912 2,761,971 0.540 0 1,566,236 780,325 0.99 -0.99 0.78
2016 2010 2,345,584 5,985,044 0.533 0 3,130,460 784,876 0.33 -0.33 0.32
2017 2011 3,275,009 3,901,938 0.531 0 1,959,305 1,315,705 0.40 0.40 0.38
2018 2012 1,137,566 4,775,925 0.527 0 2,403,732 1,266,166 1.11 -1.11 0.84
2019 2013 495,626 467,780 0.508 0 929,130 433,503 0.87 -0.87 0.72
2020 2014 NA 1,280,101 0.526 0 1,073,737 NA NA NA NA

lnS.lnR

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2005 2,550,953 2,866,201 0.169 0.010 2,530,838 20,115 0.01 0.01 0.01
2012 2006 1,369,945 1,632,027 0.174 0.008 2,323,303 953,358 0.70 -0.70 0.61
2013 2007 2,456,691 3,376,161 0.165 0.009 2,233,811 222,880 0.09 0.09 0.09
2014 2008 943,044 1,104,563 0.169 0.007 2,014,983 1,071,939 1.14 -1.14 0.85
2015 2009 785,912 2,761,971 0.160 0.008 1,825,902 1,039,991 1.32 -1.32 0.92
2016 2010 2,345,584 5,985,044 0.155 0.008 1,501,597 843,987 0.36 0.36 0.35
2017 2011 3,275,009 3,901,938 0.150 0.009 1,568,527 1,706,482 0.52 0.52 0.48
2018 2012 1,137,566 4,775,925 0.140 0.010 1,948,522 810,956 0.71 -0.71 0.62
2019 2013 495,626 467,780 0.136 0.010 1,775,316 1,279,689 2.58 -2.58 1.20
2020 2014 NA 1,280,101 0.128 0.012 2,037,965 NA NA NA NA

ricker

Return Yr Brood Yr Observed Return Sibling Return R Sq P-val Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2011 2005 2,550,953 2,866,201 -0.026 0.675 2,560,400 9,447 0.00 0.00 0.00
2012 2006 1,369,945 1,632,027 -0.025 0.666 2,353,706 983,761 0.72 -0.72 0.62
2013 2007 2,456,691 3,376,161 -0.023 0.620 2,267,237 189,454 0.08 0.08 0.08
2014 2008 943,044 1,104,563 -0.022 0.619 2,042,589 1,099,544 1.17 -1.17 0.86
2015 2009 785,912 2,761,971 -0.021 0.614 1,846,854 1,060,942 1.35 -1.35 0.93
2016 2010 2,345,584 5,985,044 -0.022 0.642 1,497,499 848,085 0.36 0.36 0.35
2017 2011 3,275,009 3,901,938 -0.019 0.592 1,571,115 1,703,894 0.52 0.52 0.48
2018 2012 1,137,566 4,775,925 -0.016 0.529 1,979,740 842,173 0.74 -0.74 0.64
2019 2013 495,626 467,780 -0.015 0.525 1,796,598 1,300,972 2.62 -2.62 1.21
2020 2014 NA 1,280,101 -0.017 0.578 2,078,477 NA NA NA NA

5-year Average

Return Yr Observed Return Forecasted Return AD APE PE AAPE
2,011 2,550,953 1 2,550,952 1.00 1.00 0.79
2,012 1,369,945 1,827,008 -457,063 0.33 -0.33 0.32
2,013 2,456,691 1,689,176 767,515 0.31 0.31 0.30
2,014 943,044 2,078,222 -1,135,178 1.20 -1.20 0.88
2,015 785,912 1,817,652 -1,031,740 1.31 -1.31 0.92
2,016 2,345,584 1,621,309 724,275 0.31 0.31 0.30
2,017 3,275,009 1,580,235 1,694,774 0.52 0.52 0.48
2,018 1,137,566 1,961,248 -823,682 0.72 -0.72 0.63
2,019 495,626 1,697,423 -1,201,797 2.42 -2.42 1.18
2,020 NA 1,607,939 NA NA NA NA

summary

R.Sq P.Val Forecast Model MAD.3 MAPE.3 MPE.3 MAAPE.3 MAD.5 MAPE.5 MPE.5 MAAPE.5
0.53 0.000 1,057,111 sibling 921,224 72% -59% 0.47 1,134,885 89% -81% 0.61
0.53 0.000 1,080,682 ln.sibling 858,999 60% -41% 0.44 920,691 72% -61% 0.53
0.53 0.000 1,073,737 lnY.sibling 1,005,125 79% -52% 0.65 916,115 74% -58% 0.61
0.13 0.012 2,037,965 lnS.lnR 1,265,709 127% -92% 0.77 1,136,221 109% -74% 0.71
NA NA 1,607,939 5-yr Avg (110,235) 122% -87% 0.76 (127,634) 105% -72% 0.70