Mid term Project

Stela Mucllari, Shahla Khan

October 17, 2019

Introduction

Instituition : Portugese Banking Instituition

Product : Term Deposit

Campaign : Direct Marketing

Means : Phone Calls

Research Question : What makes a client subscribe for Term Deposit ?

T-Test (age, duration, euribor3m)

Observations:

. There is asignificant difference between age, duration, euribor3m between those who subscribed to term deposit and who didn’t.

. Higher the duration spoken to the customers, more is the posibility of them subscribing to the term deposit.

. More clinets will subscribe to term deposit if their euribor 3 month rate is less.

## 
##  Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  bank$age by bank$y
## t = -4.7795, df = 5258.5, p-value = 1.805e-06
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  -1.4129336 -0.5909889
## sample estimates:
##  mean in group no mean in group yes 
##          39.91119          40.91315
## 
##  Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  bank$duration by bank$y
## t = -55.5, df = 4957.5, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  -344.0859 -320.6068
## sample estimates:
##  mean in group no mean in group yes 
##          220.8448          553.1912
## 
##  Welch Two Sample t-test
## 
## data:  bank$euribor3m by bank$y
## t = 62.58, df = 5729.2, p-value < 2.2e-16
## alternative hypothesis: true difference in means is not equal to 0
## 95 percent confidence interval:
##  1.635467 1.741246
## sample estimates:
##  mean in group no mean in group yes 
##          3.811491          2.123135

Chi-Square (job, martial, education, month)

Observations:

. There is a dependency between all the variables tested (job, marital, education and month) and customers who subscribed to term deposit.

. Salaried clas subscribe more to term deposit as the admin, technician and blue collar have a higher proportion of people who subscribed to term deposit.

. Students(5.9%) and unemployed (3.1%) people are least interested to subscribe.

. Married (54.6%) people are most likley to subscribe and divorced (10.3%) people are least likley to subscribe.

. 36% and 22.2% of the individuals who have subscribed to term deposit have University Degree and completed high school respectively.

. 19.1% of the customers who subscribed to the term deposit were contacted in May, While only 1.3% of the customers were contacted in the month of March, 50.5% out of them subscribed to term deposit.

. People with no loans are most likely to subscribe.

## 
##  
##    Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## |                       N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## |           N / Row Total |
## |           N / Col Total |
## |         N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
## 
##  
## Total Observations in Table:  41188 
## 
##  
##               | bank2$subscribed 
##     bank2$job |        no |       yes | Row Total | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##        admin. |      9070 |      1352 |     10422 | 
##               |     3.423 |    26.961 |           | 
##               |     0.870 |     0.130 |     0.253 | 
##               |     0.248 |     0.291 |           | 
##               |     0.220 |     0.033 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##   blue-collar |      8616 |       638 |      9254 | 
##               |    19.926 |   156.951 |           | 
##               |     0.931 |     0.069 |     0.225 | 
##               |     0.236 |     0.138 |           | 
##               |     0.209 |     0.015 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##  entrepreneur |      1332 |       124 |      1456 | 
##               |     1.240 |     9.767 |           | 
##               |     0.915 |     0.085 |     0.035 | 
##               |     0.036 |     0.027 |           | 
##               |     0.032 |     0.003 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##     housemaid |       954 |       106 |      1060 | 
##               |     0.191 |     1.507 |           | 
##               |     0.900 |     0.100 |     0.026 | 
##               |     0.026 |     0.023 |           | 
##               |     0.023 |     0.003 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##    management |      2596 |       328 |      2924 | 
##               |     0.001 |     0.006 |           | 
##               |     0.888 |     0.112 |     0.071 | 
##               |     0.071 |     0.071 |           | 
##               |     0.063 |     0.008 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##       retired |      1286 |       434 |      1720 | 
##               |    37.814 |   297.849 |           | 
##               |     0.748 |     0.252 |     0.042 | 
##               |     0.035 |     0.094 |           | 
##               |     0.031 |     0.011 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## self-employed |      1272 |       149 |      1421 | 
##               |     0.097 |     0.767 |           | 
##               |     0.895 |     0.105 |     0.035 | 
##               |     0.035 |     0.032 |           | 
##               |     0.031 |     0.004 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##      services |      3646 |       323 |      3969 | 
##               |     4.375 |    34.458 |           | 
##               |     0.919 |     0.081 |     0.096 | 
##               |     0.100 |     0.070 |           | 
##               |     0.089 |     0.008 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##       student |       600 |       275 |       875 | 
##               |    40.090 |   315.775 |           | 
##               |     0.686 |     0.314 |     0.021 | 
##               |     0.016 |     0.059 |           | 
##               |     0.015 |     0.007 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##    technician |      6013 |       730 |      6743 | 
##               |     0.147 |     1.156 |           | 
##               |     0.892 |     0.108 |     0.164 | 
##               |     0.165 |     0.157 |           | 
##               |     0.146 |     0.018 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##    unemployed |       870 |       144 |      1014 | 
##               |     0.985 |     7.758 |           | 
##               |     0.858 |     0.142 |     0.025 | 
##               |     0.024 |     0.031 |           | 
##               |     0.021 |     0.003 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##       unknown |       293 |        37 |       330 | 
##               |     0.000 |     0.001 |           | 
##               |     0.888 |     0.112 |     0.008 | 
##               |     0.008 |     0.008 |           | 
##               |     0.007 |     0.001 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##  Column Total |     36548 |      4640 |     41188 | 
##               |     0.887 |     0.113 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## 
##  
## Statistics for All Table Factors
## 
## 
## Pearson's Chi-squared test 
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Chi^2 =  961.2424     d.f. =  11     p =  4.189763e-199 
## 
## 
## 
## 
##  
##    Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## |                       N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## |           N / Row Total |
## |           N / Col Total |
## |         N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
## 
##  
## Total Observations in Table:  41188 
## 
##  
##               | bank2$subscribed 
## bank2$marital |        no |       yes | Row Total | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##      divorced |      4136 |       476 |      4612 | 
##               |     0.464 |     3.652 |           | 
##               |     0.897 |     0.103 |     0.112 | 
##               |     0.113 |     0.103 |           | 
##               |     0.100 |     0.012 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##       married |     22396 |      2532 |     24928 | 
##               |     3.450 |    27.174 |           | 
##               |     0.898 |     0.102 |     0.605 | 
##               |     0.613 |     0.546 |           | 
##               |     0.544 |     0.061 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##        single |      9948 |      1620 |     11568 | 
##               |     9.778 |    77.021 |           | 
##               |     0.860 |     0.140 |     0.281 | 
##               |     0.272 |     0.349 |           | 
##               |     0.242 |     0.039 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##       unknown |        68 |        12 |        80 | 
##               |     0.126 |     0.990 |           | 
##               |     0.850 |     0.150 |     0.002 | 
##               |     0.002 |     0.003 |           | 
##               |     0.002 |     0.000 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##  Column Total |     36548 |      4640 |     41188 | 
##               |     0.887 |     0.113 |           | 
## --------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## 
##  
## Statistics for All Table Factors
## 
## 
## Pearson's Chi-squared test 
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Chi^2 =  122.6552     d.f. =  3     p =  2.068015e-26 
## 
## 
## 
## Warning in chisq.test(t, correct = FALSE, ...): Chi-squared approximation
## may be incorrect
## 
##  
##    Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## |                       N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## |           N / Row Total |
## |           N / Col Total |
## |         N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
## 
##  
## Total Observations in Table:  41188 
## 
##  
##                     | bank2$subscribed 
##     bank2$education |        no |       yes | Row Total | 
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##            basic.4y |      3748 |       428 |      4176 | 
##                     |     0.486 |     3.829 |           | 
##                     |     0.898 |     0.102 |     0.101 | 
##                     |     0.103 |     0.092 |           | 
##                     |     0.091 |     0.010 |           | 
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##            basic.6y |      2104 |       188 |      2292 | 
##                     |     2.423 |    19.088 |           | 
##                     |     0.918 |     0.082 |     0.056 | 
##                     |     0.058 |     0.041 |           | 
##                     |     0.051 |     0.005 |           | 
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##            basic.9y |      5572 |       473 |      6045 | 
##                     |     8.065 |    63.527 |           | 
##                     |     0.922 |     0.078 |     0.147 | 
##                     |     0.152 |     0.102 |           | 
##                     |     0.135 |     0.011 |           | 
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##         high.school |      8484 |      1031 |      9515 | 
##                     |     0.198 |     1.561 |           | 
##                     |     0.892 |     0.108 |     0.231 | 
##                     |     0.232 |     0.222 |           | 
##                     |     0.206 |     0.025 |           | 
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##          illiterate |        14 |         4 |        18 | 
##                     |     0.244 |     1.918 |           | 
##                     |     0.778 |     0.222 |     0.000 | 
##                     |     0.000 |     0.001 |           | 
##                     |     0.000 |     0.000 |           | 
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## professional.course |      4648 |       595 |      5243 | 
##                     |     0.004 |     0.032 |           | 
##                     |     0.887 |     0.113 |     0.127 | 
##                     |     0.127 |     0.128 |           | 
##                     |     0.113 |     0.014 |           | 
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##   university.degree |     10498 |      1670 |     12168 | 
##                     |     8.292 |    65.317 |           | 
##                     |     0.863 |     0.137 |     0.295 | 
##                     |     0.287 |     0.360 |           | 
##                     |     0.255 |     0.041 |           | 
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##             unknown |      1480 |       251 |      1731 | 
##                     |     2.041 |    16.079 |           | 
##                     |     0.855 |     0.145 |     0.042 | 
##                     |     0.040 |     0.054 |           | 
##                     |     0.036 |     0.006 |           | 
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##        Column Total |     36548 |      4640 |     41188 | 
##                     |     0.887 |     0.113 |           | 
## --------------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## 
##  
## Statistics for All Table Factors
## 
## 
## Pearson's Chi-squared test 
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Chi^2 =  193.1059     d.f. =  7     p =  3.305189e-38 
## 
## 
## 
## 
##  
##    Cell Contents
## |-------------------------|
## |                       N |
## | Chi-square contribution |
## |           N / Row Total |
## |           N / Col Total |
## |         N / Table Total |
## |-------------------------|
## 
##  
## Total Observations in Table:  41188 
## 
##  
##              | bank2$subscribed 
##  bank2$month |        no |       yes | Row Total | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##          apr |      2093 |       539 |      2632 | 
##              |    25.178 |   198.321 |           | 
##              |     0.795 |     0.205 |     0.064 | 
##              |     0.057 |     0.116 |           | 
##              |     0.051 |     0.013 |           | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##          aug |      5523 |       655 |      6178 | 
##              |     0.306 |     2.413 |           | 
##              |     0.894 |     0.106 |     0.150 | 
##              |     0.151 |     0.141 |           | 
##              |     0.134 |     0.016 |           | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##          dec |        93 |        89 |       182 | 
##              |    29.052 |   228.836 |           | 
##              |     0.511 |     0.489 |     0.004 | 
##              |     0.003 |     0.019 |           | 
##              |     0.002 |     0.002 |           | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##          jul |      6525 |       649 |      7174 | 
##              |     3.980 |    31.353 |           | 
##              |     0.910 |     0.090 |     0.174 | 
##              |     0.179 |     0.140 |           | 
##              |     0.158 |     0.016 |           | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##          jun |      4759 |       559 |      5318 | 
##              |     0.341 |     2.683 |           | 
##              |     0.895 |     0.105 |     0.129 | 
##              |     0.130 |     0.120 |           | 
##              |     0.116 |     0.014 |           | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##          mar |       270 |       276 |       546 | 
##              |    94.958 |   747.959 |           | 
##              |     0.495 |     0.505 |     0.013 | 
##              |     0.007 |     0.059 |           | 
##              |     0.007 |     0.007 |           | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##          may |     12883 |       886 |     13769 | 
##              |    36.210 |   285.214 |           | 
##              |     0.936 |     0.064 |     0.334 | 
##              |     0.352 |     0.191 |           | 
##              |     0.313 |     0.022 |           | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##          nov |      3685 |       416 |      4101 | 
##              |     0.581 |     4.579 |           | 
##              |     0.899 |     0.101 |     0.100 | 
##              |     0.101 |     0.090 |           | 
##              |     0.089 |     0.010 |           | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##          oct |       403 |       315 |       718 | 
##              |    86.028 |   677.617 |           | 
##              |     0.561 |     0.439 |     0.017 | 
##              |     0.011 |     0.068 |           | 
##              |     0.010 |     0.008 |           | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
##          sep |       314 |       256 |       570 | 
##              |    72.723 |   572.818 |           | 
##              |     0.551 |     0.449 |     0.014 | 
##              |     0.009 |     0.055 |           | 
##              |     0.008 |     0.006 |           | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## Column Total |     36548 |      4640 |     41188 | 
##              |     0.887 |     0.113 |           | 
## -------------|-----------|-----------|-----------|
## 
##  
## Statistics for All Table Factors
## 
## 
## Pearson's Chi-squared test 
## ------------------------------------------------------------
## Chi^2 =  3101.149     d.f. =  9     p =  0 
## 
## 
## 

Graphs