Age Mixing + MaxART

Background

HIV in Swaziland, MaxART project

Data sources

MaxART

Simulation

Parameters

• Stochastic parameters: age mixing related parameters in formation/dissolution events
• Calibrated parameters: others in formation/dissolution/testing/…
• Adjustment parameters
• Validation variables:
  • Sexual history: debut age, proportion of sexually active adults, number of (lifetime?) partners
  • Epidemiological: point prevalence by gender and age group at present (2014)
  • Testing and treatment: %tested, %on ART (CD4<350), by gender
• Mediating variables:Age assortativity, heterogeneity of age mixing behaviours
• Output variables:
  • Impact: infections averted by gender and age, prevalence, (QALY)
  • Cost: person-year on ART, no. patients on ART

Parameter estimation

• No. scenarios: 1 – MaxART observed
• No. stochastic parameters: see above
• No. calibrated parameters: see above
• No. validation variables: see above
• Target values of validation variables: MaxART observed
• Settings:
  • Population size
  • Method settings

Programming

Calibration and validation

• P1. Empirical data +
• P2. Target function
• P3. Main calibration funtion

Main simulation function

• P4. Preparation functions +
• P5. Main function
• P6. Validation + and presentation +

Output processing

• P7. Output collection and restoration +

Output analysis

• P8. Statistical analysis +
• P9. Modelling +
• P10. Graphical presentation +