UK Power Plant Efficiencies and Long-Run Pricing Simulation

Just a simplistic - but fairly realistic - simulation of long-run power plant pricing in the UK for gas and coal generation.

coal_effs <- (rsn(n = 30000, xi = 0.36, omega = -1, alpha = 4, tau = 0, dp = NULL) / 65) + 0.355

gas_effs <- (rsn(n = 30000, xi = 0.5, omega = -0.05, alpha = 2.8, tau = 0, dp = NULL) / 0.9) %>% simfilter(G = .)

gas_sim_data <- data.frame(index = 1:length(gas_effs),
                           efficiencies = gas_effs, 
                           gas_prices = rnorm(n = length(gas_effs), mean = 35, sd = 2),
                           carbon_prices = rnorm(n = length(gas_effs), mean = 40, sd = 2)) %>% 
  mutate(LRMC = gas_lrmc(gas_prices, carbon_prices, efficiencies ))

coal_sim_data <- data.frame(index = 1:length(coal_effs),
                            efficiencies = coal_effs,
                            coal_prices = rnorm(n = length(coal_effs), mean = 43, sd = 2),
                            carbon_prices = rnorm(n = length(coal_effs), mean = 40, sd = 2)) %>%
  mutate(LRMC = coal_lrmc(coal_prices, carbon_prices, efficiencies ))

plot_results()