This model is the basic/flat model without decay rate and also prediction for future match. However we can know the concept, theory and the algorithmic EM model. https://github.com/englianhu/Dixon-Coles1996
Scrap the data from the English Premier League season 2013/14 official website
library(shiny)
library(shinyapps)
library(devtools)
library(fbRanks)
library(XML)
library(plyr)
library(dplyr)
# get the English Premier League 2013/2014 from official website
url = getURL('http://www.premierleague.com/en-gb/matchday/results.html?paramClubId=ALL¶mComp_8=true¶mSeason=2013-2014&view=.scoresSeason')
tbl <- readHTMLTable(htmlParse(url),header='text'); tbl[[length(tbl)]] <- NULL
tbl <- lapply(tbl,function(x) {x$V1 = x$V1[1]; x[-1,]})
scores <- Reduce(function(x, y) merge(x, y, all = T),
tbl, accumulate = F)[1:5]
scores$HG <- as.numeric(unlist(lapply(str_split(as.character(scores$V3),'-'),function(x) x[1])))
scores$AG <- as.numeric(unlist(lapply(str_split(as.character(scores$V3),'-'),function(x) x[2])))
scores$V3 <- NULL
names(scores) <- c('date','home.team','away.team','venue','home.score','away.score')
scores$date <- unlist(lapply(str_split(scores$date,' '),function(x) paste(x[-1],collapse='')))
scores$date <- as.Date(scores$date, "%d%B%Y")
attr(scores$home.team,'levels') <- levels(factor(scores$home.team))
attr(scores$away.team,'levels') <- levels(factor(scores$away.team))
scores$venue <- as.character(scores$venue)
teams <- scores[order(scores$date, decreasing=T) & !duplicated(scores$venue),][c('home.team','venue')]
names(teams)[1] <- 'name'
scores$hdv <- ifelse(scores$home.team==teams$name & scores$venue==teams$venue, 1, 0) # scoresa error:only 33 matches home ground among 380 matches
#match(scores$home.team,teams$name)
#match(scores$venue,teams$venue)
rm(url, tbl, teams)
save(scores, file='C:/Users/Scibrokes Trading/Documents/GitHub/englianhu/Dixon-Coles1996/data/scores.Rda')
write.csv(scores, 'C:/Users/Scibrokes Trading/Documents/GitHub/englianhu/Dixon-Coles1996/data/scores.csv')Load data and simulate the result
library(shiny)
library(shinyapps)
library(devtools)
library(fbRanks)
library(XML)
library(plyr)
library(dplyr)
# Load soccer matches data
load('C:/Users/Scibrokes Trading/Documents/GitHub/englianhu/Dixon-Coles1996/data/scores.Rda')
#scores <- read.csv('C:/Users/Scibrokes Trading/Documents/GitHub/englianhu/Dixon-Coles1996/data/scores.csv')
scores <- create.fbRanks.dataframes('C:/Users/Scibrokes Trading/Documents/GitHub/englianhu/Dixon-Coles1996/data/scores.csv')## Alert: teams info file was not passed in.
## Will construct one from the scores data frame but teams in the scores file must use a unique name.
## Alert: teams resolver was not passed in.
## Will construct one from the team info data frame.teams <- scores$scores[order(scores$scores$date, decreasing=T) & !duplicated(scores$scores$venue),][c('home.team','venue')]
names(teams)[1] <- 'name'
# Dixon & Coles poisson model, we can also add some more effect like weather, pitch condition, home ground advantages etc.
md1 <- rank.teams(scores$scores, min.date=min(scores$scores$date),max.date=max(scores$scores$date), silent=T) #without other effects
md2 <- rank.teams(scores$scores, min.date=min(scores$scores$date),max.date=max(scores$scores$date), silent=T, add='hdv') #with home team advantage
md3 <- rank.teams(scores$scores, min.date=min(scores$scores$date),max.date=max(scores$scores$date), silent=T, add='venue') #with venue effects
# -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
# model 1 measure the team attack and defence index.
md1.att <- coef(md1$fit$cluster.1)[1:nrow(md1$teams)]
md1.def <- coef(md1$fit$cluster.1)[-seq(1,nrow(md1$teams))]
md1.tbl <- data.frame(coef(md1))[c(1:nrow(scores$teams)),-1]; names(md1.tbl) <- c('attack','defence')
md1.tbl <- data.frame(team=sort(as.character(teams$name)),md1.tbl)
md1.tbl$attack <- exp(md1.tbl$attack); md1.tbl$defence <- exp(md1.tbl$defence); row.names(md1.tbl) <- NULL
md1.hm <- ddply(scores$scores, "home.team", summarise, scores = sum(home.score), mean = mean(home.score),
sd = sd(home.score), se = sd/sqrt(nrow(scores$scores)))
md1.aw <- ddply(scores$scores, "away.team", summarise, scores = sum(away.score), mean = mean(away.score),
sd = sd(away.score), se = sd/sqrt(nrow(scores$scores)))
# model 2 measure the team attack, defence and home ground advantage index.
md2.att <- coef(md2$fit$cluster.1)[1:nrow(md2$teams)]
md2.def <- coef(md2$fit$cluster.1)[seq(nrow(md2$teams)+2,nrow(md2$teams)*2)-1]
md2.hdv <- coef(md2$fit$cluster.1)[-seq(nrow(md2$teams)*2)+1]
md2.tbl <- data.frame(coef(md2)$coef.list); names(md2.tbl) <- c('attack','defence','hdv')
md2.tbl <- data.frame(team=sort(as.character(teams$name)),md2.tbl)
md2.tbl$attack <- exp(md2.tbl$attack); md2.tbl$defence <- exp(md2.tbl$defence); row.names(md2.tbl) <- NULL
md2.hm <- ddply(scores$scores, "home.team", summarise, scores = sum(home.score), mean = mean(home.score),
sd = sd(home.score), se = sd/sqrt(nrow(scores$scores)))
md2.aw <- ddply(scores$scores, "away.team", summarise, scores = sum(away.score), mean = mean(away.score),
sd = sd(away.score), se = sd/sqrt(nrow(scores$scores)))
# model 3 measure the team attack, defence and venue index.
md3.att <- coef(md3$fit$cluster.1)[1:nrow(md3$teams)]
md3.def <- coef(md3$fit$cluster.1)[seq(nrow(md3$teams)+2,nrow(md3$teams)*2)-1]
md3.hdv <- coef(md3$fit$cluster.1)[-seq(nrow(md3$teams)*2)+1]
md3.tbl <- data.frame(coef(md3))[c(1:nrow(scores$teams)),-1]; names(md3.tbl) <- c('attack','defence')
md3.tbl <- data.frame(team=sort(as.character(teams$name)), md3.tbl)
md3.tbl$attack <- exp(md3.tbl$attack); md3.tbl$defence <- exp(md3.tbl$defence); row.names(md3.tbl) <- NULL
md3.hm <- ddply(scores$scores, "home.team", summarise, scores = sum(home.score), mean = mean(home.score),
sd = sd(home.score), se = sd/sqrt(nrow(scores$scores)))
md3.aw <- ddply(scores$scores, "away.team", summarise, scores = sum(away.score), mean = mean(away.score),
sd = sd(away.score), se = sd/sqrt(nrow(scores$scores)))Simulate the venue (home ground advantage and neutral ground), and predict a specific kick-off scores
# Simulate model 1
# Example : predict a match kick-off on last match-day
sim1 <- simulate(md1)##
##
## 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
## Liverpool 19 38 30 10 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
## Norwich 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1
## Sunderland 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 10 11
## West Brom 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 8 11 11 12
## Arsenal 1 4 13 30 24 16 7 3 1 0 0 0 0
## Swansea 0 0 0 1 3 7 14 18 18 13 9 6 4
## West Ham 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 8 11 12 12 12
## Crystal Palace 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 3 5 7 9 11
## Chelsea 13 32 35 13 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
## Man City 67 22 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
## Fulham 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2
## Hull 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 7 9 11 12
## Southampton 0 0 1 3 8 15 22 19 13 8 5 3 2
## Aston Villa 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 2 4 6 8 9
## Everton 0 2 7 20 25 22 12 6 3 1 0 0 0
## Newcastle 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 6 9 11 11 12
## Stoke 0 0 0 0 1 2 5 9 13 15 13 12 9
## Cardiff 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1
## Spurs 0 0 0 2 5 11 18 20 16 10 7 4 3
## Man Utd 0 2 6 19 24 23 13 7 3 1 1 0 0
## 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th
## Liverpool 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
## Norwich 2 4 6 11 19 26 29
## Sunderland 12 12 12 10 7 4 2
## West Brom 11 11 9 7 5 2 1
## Arsenal 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
## Swansea 3 2 1 1 0 0 0
## West Ham 10 9 7 6 3 2 1
## Crystal Palace 12 12 12 11 8 5 2
## Chelsea 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
## Man City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
## Fulham 3 5 8 13 20 24 23
## Hull 12 11 11 9 6 3 1
## Southampton 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
## Aston Villa 11 12 14 13 10 6 3
## Everton 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
## Newcastle 12 11 9 7 5 2 1
## Stoke 7 6 4 3 1 0 0
## Cardiff 2 3 5 9 16 26 38
## Spurs 2 1 1 0 0 0 0
## Man Utd 0 0 0 0 0 0 0predict(md1, date=as.Date(max(scores$scores$date)))## Predicted Match Results for 1900-05-01 to 2100-06-01
## Model based on data from 2013-08-17 to 2014-05-11
## ---------------------------------------------
## 2014-05-11 Cardiff vs Chelsea, HW 5%, AW 82%, T 13%, pred score 0.4-2.5 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-05-11 Fulham vs Crystal Palace, HW 26%, AW 46%, T 27%, pred score 1-1.4 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-05-11 Hull vs Everton, HW 18%, AW 57%, T 25%, pred score 0.7-1.6 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-05-11 Liverpool vs Newcastle, HW 75%, AW 11%, T 14%, pred score 3-1.1 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-05-11 Man City vs West Ham, HW 76%, AW 9%, T 15%, pred score 2.5-0.8 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-05-11 Norwich vs Arsenal, HW 9%, AW 72%, T 19%, pred score 0.6-2 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-05-11 Southampton vs Man Utd, HW 30%, AW 44%, T 26%, pred score 1.2-1.5 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-05-11 Spurs vs Aston Villa, HW 53%, AW 23%, T 25%, pred score 1.7-1 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-05-11 Sunderland vs Swansea, HW 27%, AW 49%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2014-05-11 West Brom vs Stoke, HW 32%, AW 41%, T 27%, pred score 1.1-1.3 actual: AW (1-2)pr1 <- predict(md1)## Predicted Match Results for 1900-05-01 to 2100-06-01
## Model based on data from 2013-08-17 to 2014-05-11
## ---------------------------------------------
## 2013-08-17 Liverpool vs Stoke, HW 68%, AW 15%, T 17%, pred score 2.6-1.2 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-08-17 Norwich vs Everton, HW 10%, AW 68%, T 21%, pred score 0.6-1.8 actual: T (2-2)
## 2013-08-17 Sunderland vs Fulham, HW 49%, AW 27%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-1.2 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-08-17 West Brom vs Southampton, HW 24%, AW 51%, T 25%, pred score 1-1.6 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-08-17 Arsenal vs Aston Villa, HW 66%, AW 14%, T 20%, pred score 2-0.8 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2013-08-17 Swansea vs Man Utd, HW 26%, AW 50%, T 24%, pred score 1.2-1.7 actual: AW (1-4)
## 2013-08-17 West Ham vs Cardiff, HW 52%, AW 21%, T 27%, pred score 1.5-0.8 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-08-18 Crystal Palace vs Spurs, HW 24%, AW 47%, T 29%, pred score 0.8-1.3 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-08-18 Chelsea vs Hull, HW 69%, AW 10%, T 21%, pred score 1.8-0.5 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-08-19 Man City vs Newcastle, HW 80%, AW 8%, T 12%, pred score 3-0.8 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2013-08-21 Chelsea vs Aston Villa, HW 74%, AW 8%, T 18%, pred score 2.1-0.5 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-08-24 Fulham vs Arsenal, HW 9%, AW 78%, T 13%, pred score 0.9-2.8 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2013-08-24 Hull vs Norwich, HW 45%, AW 24%, T 31%, pred score 1.2-0.7 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-08-24 Southampton vs Sunderland, HW 52%, AW 23%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-08-24 Aston Villa vs Liverpool, HW 10%, AW 77%, T 13%, pred score 1-3 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-08-24 Everton vs West Brom, HW 59%, AW 18%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-0.9 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-08-24 Newcastle vs West Ham, HW 34%, AW 37%, T 29%, pred score 1.1-1.2 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-08-24 Stoke vs Crystal Palace, HW 40%, AW 28%, T 32%, pred score 1.1-0.8 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-08-25 Cardiff vs Man City, HW 3%, AW 90%, T 7%, pred score 0.6-3.7 actual: HW (3-2)
## 2013-08-25 Spurs vs Swansea, HW 40%, AW 35%, T 25%, pred score 1.5-1.4 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-08-26 Man Utd vs Chelsea, HW 22%, AW 52%, T 26%, pred score 0.9-1.5 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-08-31 Cardiff vs Everton, HW 9%, AW 73%, T 18%, pred score 0.6-2.2 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-08-31 Man City vs Hull, HW 78%, AW 8%, T 14%, pred score 2.6-0.7 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-08-31 Norwich vs Southampton, HW 15%, AW 61%, T 24%, pred score 0.7-1.6 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-08-31 Crystal Palace vs Sunderland, HW 34%, AW 34%, T 32%, pred score 1-1 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2013-08-31 Newcastle vs Fulham, HW 52%, AW 25%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-1.2 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-08-31 West Ham vs Stoke, HW 33%, AW 38%, T 29%, pred score 1-1.1 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-09-01 Liverpool vs Man Utd, HW 50%, AW 30%, T 20%, pred score 2.2-1.7 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-09-01 West Brom vs Swansea, HW 28%, AW 47%, T 25%, pred score 1.2-1.6 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2013-09-01 Arsenal vs Spurs, HW 51%, AW 25%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-1.1 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-09-14 Fulham vs West Brom, HW 25%, AW 52%, T 23%, pred score 1.2-1.8 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-09-14 Hull vs Cardiff, HW 49%, AW 23%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-0.9 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-09-14 Spurs vs Norwich, HW 60%, AW 16%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-0.7 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-09-14 Sunderland vs Arsenal, HW 15%, AW 64%, T 21%, pred score 0.9-2 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2013-09-14 Man Utd vs Crystal Palace, HW 56%, AW 18%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-0.7 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-09-14 Aston Villa vs Newcastle, HW 33%, AW 40%, T 27%, pred score 1.2-1.3 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-09-14 Everton vs Chelsea, HW 23%, AW 49%, T 28%, pred score 0.8-1.4 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-09-14 Stoke vs Man City, HW 10%, AW 75%, T 15%, pred score 0.9-2.6 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-09-15 Southampton vs West Ham, HW 47%, AW 25%, T 28%, pred score 1.4-0.9 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-09-16 Swansea vs Liverpool, HW 18%, AW 65%, T 17%, pred score 1.4-2.7 actual: T (2-2)
## 2013-09-21 Liverpool vs Southampton, HW 58%, AW 22%, T 20%, pred score 2.3-1.4 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-09-21 Norwich vs Aston Villa, HW 26%, AW 44%, T 30%, pred score 0.9-1.2 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-09-21 West Brom vs Sunderland, HW 38%, AW 35%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.2 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2013-09-21 Chelsea vs Fulham, HW 85%, AW 5%, T 11%, pred score 2.9-0.6 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-09-21 Newcastle vs Hull, HW 36%, AW 35%, T 29%, pred score 1.1-1.1 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2013-09-21 West Ham vs Everton, HW 19%, AW 55%, T 26%, pred score 0.8-1.5 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2013-09-22 Cardiff vs Spurs, HW 15%, AW 65%, T 20%, pred score 0.8-2 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-09-22 Man City vs Man Utd, HW 59%, AW 21%, T 20%, pred score 2.2-1.2 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2013-09-22 Crystal Palace vs Swansea, HW 26%, AW 45%, T 29%, pred score 0.9-1.3 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2013-09-22 Arsenal vs Stoke, HW 56%, AW 20%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-0.9 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2013-09-28 Fulham vs Cardiff, HW 40%, AW 35%, T 25%, pred score 1.5-1.4 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-09-28 Hull vs West Ham, HW 33%, AW 37%, T 31%, pred score 1-1 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-09-28 Southampton vs Crystal Palace, HW 48%, AW 22%, T 29%, pred score 1.3-0.8 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-09-28 Spurs vs Chelsea, HW 15%, AW 62%, T 23%, pred score 0.8-1.8 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-09-28 Man Utd vs West Brom, HW 59%, AW 19%, T 22%, pred score 1.9-0.9 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-09-28 Aston Villa vs Man City, HW 6%, AW 82%, T 11%, pred score 0.8-3 actual: HW (3-2)
## 2013-09-28 Swansea vs Arsenal, HW 23%, AW 54%, T 23%, pred score 1.1-1.8 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-09-29 Sunderland vs Liverpool, HW 11%, AW 76%, T 14%, pred score 1.1-3 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2013-09-29 Stoke vs Norwich, HW 52%, AW 20%, T 28%, pred score 1.4-0.7 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-09-30 Everton vs Newcastle, HW 59%, AW 18%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-0.9 actual: HW (3-2)
## 2013-10-05 Cardiff vs Newcastle, HW 23%, AW 52%, T 25%, pred score 1-1.6 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-10-05 Fulham vs Stoke, HW 21%, AW 57%, T 22%, pred score 1.1-1.9 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-10-05 Hull vs Aston Villa, HW 38%, AW 32%, T 29%, pred score 1.1-1 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-10-05 Liverpool vs Crystal Palace, HW 71%, AW 12%, T 17%, pred score 2.4-0.9 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2013-10-05 Man City vs Everton, HW 56%, AW 22%, T 22%, pred score 2-1.2 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2013-10-05 Sunderland vs Man Utd, HW 17%, AW 61%, T 22%, pred score 0.9-1.9 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-10-06 Norwich vs Chelsea, HW 6%, AW 78%, T 17%, pred score 0.4-2.1 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2013-10-06 Southampton vs Swansea, HW 42%, AW 32%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-1.2 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-10-06 Spurs vs West Ham, HW 45%, AW 27%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2013-10-06 West Brom vs Arsenal, HW 16%, AW 62%, T 21%, pred score 0.9-2 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-10-19 Man Utd vs Southampton, HW 44%, AW 30%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-1.2 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-10-19 Arsenal vs Norwich, HW 72%, AW 10%, T 19%, pred score 2-0.6 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2013-10-19 Chelsea vs Cardiff, HW 82%, AW 5%, T 13%, pred score 2.5-0.4 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2013-10-19 Everton vs Hull, HW 57%, AW 18%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-0.7 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-10-19 Newcastle vs Liverpool, HW 11%, AW 74%, T 14%, pred score 1.1-3 actual: T (2-2)
## 2013-10-19 Stoke vs West Brom, HW 41%, AW 32%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.1 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-10-19 Swansea vs Sunderland, HW 49%, AW 26%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1.1 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2013-10-19 West Ham vs Man City, HW 9%, AW 76%, T 15%, pred score 0.8-2.5 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2013-10-20 Aston Villa vs Spurs, HW 23%, AW 53%, T 24%, pred score 1-1.7 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2013-10-21 Crystal Palace vs Fulham, HW 46%, AW 27%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1 actual: AW (1-4)
## 2013-10-26 Liverpool vs West Brom, HW 74%, AW 12%, T 14%, pred score 3-1.1 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2013-10-26 Norwich vs Cardiff, HW 35%, AW 34%, T 31%, pred score 1-1 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-10-26 Southampton vs Fulham, HW 67%, AW 15%, T 19%, pred score 2.3-1 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-10-26 Man Utd vs Stoke, HW 53%, AW 23%, T 24%, pred score 1.6-1 actual: HW (3-2)
## 2013-10-26 Crystal Palace vs Arsenal, HW 16%, AW 59%, T 25%, pred score 0.7-1.6 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2013-10-26 Aston Villa vs Everton, HW 15%, AW 62%, T 22%, pred score 0.8-1.8 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2013-10-27 Spurs vs Hull, HW 48%, AW 26%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-10-27 Sunderland vs Newcastle, HW 35%, AW 39%, T 27%, pred score 1.2-1.3 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-10-27 Chelsea vs Man City, HW 37%, AW 38%, T 25%, pred score 1.4-1.4 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-10-27 Swansea vs West Ham, HW 43%, AW 30%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1.1 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-11-02 Fulham vs Man Utd, HW 10%, AW 75%, T 15%, pred score 0.9-2.7 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2013-11-02 Hull vs Sunderland, HW 37%, AW 34%, T 29%, pred score 1.1-1.1 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-11-02 Man City vs Norwich, HW 86%, AW 4%, T 10%, pred score 3.1-0.6 actual: HW (7-0)
## 2013-11-02 West Brom vs Crystal Palace, HW 36%, AW 33%, T 31%, pred score 1-1 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-11-02 Arsenal vs Liverpool, HW 33%, AW 46%, T 21%, pred score 1.8-2.1 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-11-02 Newcastle vs Chelsea, HW 10%, AW 71%, T 19%, pred score 0.6-2 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-11-02 Stoke vs Southampton, HW 28%, AW 45%, T 27%, pred score 1-1.4 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-11-02 West Ham vs Aston Villa, HW 41%, AW 30%, T 29%, pred score 1.2-1 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-11-03 Cardiff vs Swansea, HW 16%, AW 63%, T 21%, pred score 0.9-2 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-11-03 Everton vs Spurs, HW 48%, AW 27%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-1.1 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-11-09 Liverpool vs Fulham, HW 88%, AW 5%, T 7%, pred score 4.3-1.1 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2013-11-09 Norwich vs West Ham, HW 22%, AW 48%, T 30%, pred score 0.7-1.2 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2013-11-09 Southampton vs Hull, HW 49%, AW 23%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-0.9 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2013-11-09 Crystal Palace vs Everton, HW 17%, AW 56%, T 27%, pred score 0.6-1.4 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-11-09 Chelsea vs West Brom, HW 71%, AW 10%, T 19%, pred score 2-0.6 actual: T (2-2)
## 2013-11-09 Aston Villa vs Cardiff, HW 47%, AW 26%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-11-10 Spurs vs Newcastle, HW 49%, AW 26%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1.1 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-11-10 Sunderland vs Man City, HW 7%, AW 81%, T 12%, pred score 0.8-3 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-11-10 Man Utd vs Arsenal, HW 34%, AW 41%, T 25%, pred score 1.3-1.5 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-11-10 Swansea vs Stoke, HW 41%, AW 33%, T 26%, pred score 1.4-1.2 actual: T (3-3)
## 2013-11-23 Fulham vs Swansea, HW 17%, AW 64%, T 19%, pred score 1.1-2.3 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-11-23 Hull vs Crystal Palace, HW 34%, AW 32%, T 33%, pred score 0.9-0.9 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-11-23 Arsenal vs Southampton, HW 47%, AW 27%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1.1 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-11-23 Everton vs Liverpool, HW 31%, AW 48%, T 22%, pred score 1.6-2 actual: T (3-3)
## 2013-11-23 Newcastle vs Norwich, HW 48%, AW 23%, T 28%, pred score 1.3-0.8 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-11-23 Stoke vs Sunderland, HW 43%, AW 30%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.1 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-11-23 West Ham vs Chelsea, HW 11%, AW 66%, T 23%, pred score 0.5-1.7 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2013-11-24 Cardiff vs Man Utd, HW 10%, AW 73%, T 17%, pred score 0.7-2.3 actual: T (2-2)
## 2013-11-24 Man City vs Spurs, HW 70%, AW 14%, T 16%, pred score 2.6-1.1 actual: HW (6-0)
## 2013-11-25 West Brom vs Aston Villa, HW 40%, AW 33%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.2 actual: T (2-2)
## 2013-11-30 Cardiff vs Arsenal, HW 9%, AW 76%, T 15%, pred score 0.7-2.4 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2013-11-30 Norwich vs Crystal Palace, HW 24%, AW 42%, T 34%, pred score 0.7-1 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-11-30 Aston Villa vs Sunderland, HW 34%, AW 38%, T 28%, pred score 1.2-1.2 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-11-30 Everton vs Stoke, HW 53%, AW 22%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-0.9 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2013-11-30 Newcastle vs West Brom, HW 37%, AW 37%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.3 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-11-30 West Ham vs Fulham, HW 52%, AW 23%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-1 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2013-12-01 Hull vs Liverpool, HW 12%, AW 73%, T 16%, pred score 1-2.6 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2013-12-01 Man City vs Swansea, HW 72%, AW 12%, T 15%, pred score 2.7-1.1 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2013-12-01 Spurs vs Man Utd, HW 28%, AW 47%, T 25%, pred score 1.2-1.6 actual: T (2-2)
## 2013-12-01 Chelsea vs Southampton, HW 58%, AW 17%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-0.7 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2013-12-03 Crystal Palace vs West Ham, HW 30%, AW 37%, T 33%, pred score 0.8-0.9 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-12-04 Fulham vs Spurs, HW 16%, AW 66%, T 18%, pred score 1.1-2.3 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-12-04 Liverpool vs Norwich, HW 83%, AW 6%, T 11%, pred score 3.1-0.7 actual: HW (5-1)
## 2013-12-04 Southampton vs Aston Villa, HW 54%, AW 21%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-0.9 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2013-12-04 Sunderland vs Chelsea, HW 9%, AW 73%, T 18%, pred score 0.6-2.1 actual: AW (3-4)
## 2013-12-04 West Brom vs Man City, HW 8%, AW 80%, T 13%, pred score 0.8-3 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2013-12-04 Man Utd vs Everton, HW 35%, AW 38%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.3 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-12-04 Arsenal vs Hull, HW 60%, AW 17%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-0.8 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-12-04 Stoke vs Cardiff, HW 56%, AW 19%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-0.8 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-12-04 Swansea vs Newcastle, HW 47%, AW 28%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1.2 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2013-12-07 Liverpool vs West Ham, HW 70%, AW 13%, T 17%, pred score 2.6-1.1 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2013-12-07 Southampton vs Man City, HW 16%, AW 66%, T 19%, pred score 1-2.3 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-12-07 Sunderland vs Spurs, HW 25%, AW 51%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-12-07 West Brom vs Norwich, HW 48%, AW 23%, T 28%, pred score 1.3-0.8 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2013-12-07 Man Utd vs Newcastle, HW 59%, AW 19%, T 23%, pred score 1.9-0.9 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-12-07 Crystal Palace vs Cardiff, HW 46%, AW 24%, T 30%, pred score 1.2-0.8 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-12-07 Stoke vs Chelsea, HW 12%, AW 66%, T 22%, pred score 0.6-1.8 actual: HW (3-2)
## 2013-12-08 Fulham vs Aston Villa, HW 29%, AW 47%, T 24%, pred score 1.2-1.7 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-12-08 Arsenal vs Everton, HW 39%, AW 35%, T 26%, pred score 1.3-1.3 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-12-09 Swansea vs Hull, HW 46%, AW 27%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-12-14 Cardiff vs West Brom, HW 23%, AW 52%, T 25%, pred score 1-1.6 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-12-14 Hull vs Stoke, HW 31%, AW 40%, T 29%, pred score 1-1.2 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-12-14 Man City vs Arsenal, HW 56%, AW 24%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.3 actual: HW (6-3)
## 2013-12-14 Chelsea vs Crystal Palace, HW 67%, AW 10%, T 23%, pred score 1.6-0.5 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-12-14 Everton vs Fulham, HW 74%, AW 10%, T 16%, pred score 2.5-0.8 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2013-12-14 Newcastle vs Southampton, HW 24%, AW 51%, T 25%, pred score 1-1.6 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-12-14 West Ham vs Sunderland, HW 40%, AW 32%, T 29%, pred score 1.2-1 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-12-15 Norwich vs Swansea, HW 17%, AW 59%, T 24%, pred score 0.8-1.6 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-12-15 Spurs vs Liverpool, HW 20%, AW 62%, T 18%, pred score 1.4-2.6 actual: AW (0-5)
## 2013-12-15 Aston Villa vs Man Utd, HW 16%, AW 62%, T 22%, pred score 0.9-1.9 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2013-12-21 Fulham vs Man City, HW 3%, AW 92%, T 6%, pred score 0.8-4.2 actual: AW (2-4)
## 2013-12-21 Liverpool vs Cardiff, HW 87%, AW 5%, T 8%, pred score 3.7-0.9 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2013-12-21 Sunderland vs Norwich, HW 46%, AW 25%, T 29%, pred score 1.3-0.8 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-12-21 West Brom vs Hull, HW 36%, AW 35%, T 29%, pred score 1.1-1.1 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-12-21 Man Utd vs West Ham, HW 55%, AW 20%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-0.9 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2013-12-21 Crystal Palace vs Newcastle, HW 33%, AW 36%, T 31%, pred score 1-1 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2013-12-21 Stoke vs Aston Villa, HW 45%, AW 28%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-12-22 Southampton vs Spurs, HW 39%, AW 35%, T 26%, pred score 1.4-1.3 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2013-12-22 Swansea vs Everton, HW 25%, AW 51%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-12-23 Arsenal vs Chelsea, HW 24%, AW 49%, T 27%, pred score 0.9-1.4 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-12-26 Cardiff vs Southampton, HW 14%, AW 66%, T 21%, pred score 0.8-2 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2013-12-26 Hull vs Man Utd, HW 18%, AW 57%, T 24%, pred score 0.8-1.7 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2013-12-26 Man City vs Liverpool, HW 53%, AW 28%, T 18%, pred score 2.7-2 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-12-26 Norwich vs Fulham, HW 35%, AW 38%, T 27%, pred score 1.2-1.3 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-12-26 Spurs vs West Brom, HW 49%, AW 26%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1.1 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-12-26 Chelsea vs Swansea, HW 64%, AW 14%, T 22%, pred score 1.9-0.7 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-12-26 Aston Villa vs Crystal Palace, HW 32%, AW 36%, T 32%, pred score 0.9-1 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-12-26 Everton vs Sunderland, HW 61%, AW 17%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-0.8 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-12-26 Newcastle vs Stoke, HW 32%, AW 41%, T 27%, pred score 1.1-1.3 actual: HW (5-1)
## 2013-12-26 West Ham vs Arsenal, HW 18%, AW 58%, T 24%, pred score 0.8-1.7 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2013-12-28 Cardiff vs Sunderland, HW 24%, AW 50%, T 26%, pred score 1-1.5 actual: T (2-2)
## 2013-12-28 Hull vs Fulham, HW 49%, AW 26%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1.1 actual: HW (6-0)
## 2013-12-28 Man City vs Crystal Palace, HW 76%, AW 8%, T 15%, pred score 2.4-0.6 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-12-28 Norwich vs Man Utd, HW 11%, AW 69%, T 20%, pred score 0.6-1.9 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-12-28 Aston Villa vs Swansea, HW 25%, AW 51%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-12-28 West Ham vs West Brom, HW 37%, AW 34%, T 29%, pred score 1.2-1.1 actual: T (3-3)
## 2013-12-29 Spurs vs Stoke, HW 43%, AW 31%, T 26%, pred score 1.4-1.2 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2013-12-29 Chelsea vs Liverpool, HW 48%, AW 29%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-1.4 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-12-29 Everton vs Southampton, HW 44%, AW 29%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1.1 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2013-12-29 Newcastle vs Arsenal, HW 16%, AW 62%, T 21%, pred score 0.9-2 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-01-01 Fulham vs West Ham, HW 24%, AW 52%, T 24%, pred score 1-1.7 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-01-01 Liverpool vs Hull, HW 73%, AW 12%, T 16%, pred score 2.6-1 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-01-01 Southampton vs Chelsea, HW 17%, AW 58%, T 25%, pred score 0.7-1.6 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-01-01 Sunderland vs Aston Villa, HW 38%, AW 35%, T 27%, pred score 1.2-1.2 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-01-01 West Brom vs Newcastle, HW 37%, AW 37%, T 26%, pred score 1.3-1.3 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-01-01 Man Utd vs Spurs, HW 47%, AW 28%, T 24%, pred score 1.6-1.2 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-01-01 Crystal Palace vs Norwich, HW 42%, AW 24%, T 34%, pred score 1-0.7 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-01-01 Arsenal vs Cardiff, HW 76%, AW 8%, T 15%, pred score 2.4-0.7 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-01-01 Stoke vs Everton, HW 21%, AW 53%, T 26%, pred score 0.9-1.6 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-01-01 Swansea vs Man City, HW 12%, AW 73%, T 15%, pred score 1.1-2.7 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2014-01-11 Cardiff vs West Ham, HW 21%, AW 52%, T 27%, pred score 0.8-1.5 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-01-11 Fulham vs Sunderland, HW 27%, AW 49%, T 24%, pred score 1.2-1.7 actual: AW (1-4)
## 2014-01-11 Hull vs Chelsea, HW 10%, AW 69%, T 21%, pred score 0.5-1.8 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-01-11 Southampton vs West Brom, HW 51%, AW 24%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-01-11 Spurs vs Crystal Palace, HW 47%, AW 24%, T 29%, pred score 1.3-0.8 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-01-11 Man Utd vs Swansea, HW 50%, AW 26%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-1.2 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-01-11 Everton vs Norwich, HW 68%, AW 11%, T 21%, pred score 1.8-0.6 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-01-12 Newcastle vs Man City, HW 8%, AW 80%, T 12%, pred score 0.8-3 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-01-12 Stoke vs Liverpool, HW 15%, AW 68%, T 17%, pred score 1.2-2.6 actual: AW (3-5)
## 2014-01-13 Aston Villa vs Arsenal, HW 14%, AW 65%, T 20%, pred score 0.8-2 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-01-18 Liverpool vs Aston Villa, HW 77%, AW 9%, T 13%, pred score 3-1 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-01-18 Man City vs Cardiff, HW 90%, AW 3%, T 7%, pred score 3.7-0.6 actual: HW (4-2)
## 2014-01-18 Norwich vs Hull, HW 23%, AW 46%, T 31%, pred score 0.7-1.2 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-01-18 Sunderland vs Southampton, HW 23%, AW 52%, T 25%, pred score 1-1.6 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-01-18 Crystal Palace vs Stoke, HW 29%, AW 40%, T 31%, pred score 0.8-1.1 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-01-18 Arsenal vs Fulham, HW 78%, AW 9%, T 13%, pred score 2.8-0.9 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-01-18 West Ham vs Newcastle, HW 37%, AW 34%, T 29%, pred score 1.2-1.1 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2014-01-19 Chelsea vs Man Utd, HW 52%, AW 22%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-0.9 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-01-19 Swansea vs Spurs, HW 35%, AW 40%, T 25%, pred score 1.4-1.5 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2014-01-20 West Brom vs Everton, HW 18%, AW 59%, T 23%, pred score 0.9-1.8 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-01-28 Liverpool vs Everton, HW 47%, AW 31%, T 21%, pred score 2-1.6 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2014-01-28 Norwich vs Newcastle, HW 24%, AW 48%, T 28%, pred score 0.8-1.3 actual: T (0-0)
## 2014-01-28 Southampton vs Arsenal, HW 27%, AW 47%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-01-28 Man Utd vs Cardiff, HW 73%, AW 10%, T 17%, pred score 2.3-0.7 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-01-28 Crystal Palace vs Hull, HW 32%, AW 34%, T 33%, pred score 0.9-0.9 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-01-28 Swansea vs Fulham, HW 63%, AW 17%, T 19%, pred score 2.3-1.1 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-01-29 Spurs vs Man City, HW 14%, AW 70%, T 16%, pred score 1.1-2.6 actual: AW (1-5)
## 2014-01-29 Sunderland vs Stoke, HW 30%, AW 43%, T 27%, pred score 1.1-1.3 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-01-29 Chelsea vs West Ham, HW 67%, AW 11%, T 22%, pred score 1.7-0.5 actual: T (0-0)
## 2014-01-29 Aston Villa vs West Brom, HW 33%, AW 40%, T 27%, pred score 1.2-1.3 actual: HW (4-3)
## 2014-02-01 Cardiff vs Norwich, HW 34%, AW 36%, T 31%, pred score 1-1 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-02-01 Fulham vs Southampton, HW 14%, AW 67%, T 19%, pred score 1-2.3 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-02-01 Hull vs Spurs, HW 25%, AW 48%, T 27%, pred score 1-1.4 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-02-01 Everton vs Aston Villa, HW 62%, AW 15%, T 22%, pred score 1.8-0.8 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-02-01 Newcastle vs Sunderland, HW 38%, AW 35%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.2 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-02-01 Stoke vs Man Utd, HW 23%, AW 53%, T 25%, pred score 1-1.6 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-02-01 West Ham vs Swansea, HW 30%, AW 43%, T 27%, pred score 1.1-1.4 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-02-02 West Brom vs Liverpool, HW 11%, AW 74%, T 14%, pred score 1.1-3 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-02-02 Arsenal vs Crystal Palace, HW 59%, AW 16%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-0.7 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-02-03 Man City vs Chelsea, HW 38%, AW 36%, T 26%, pred score 1.4-1.4 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-02-08 Liverpool vs Arsenal, HW 46%, AW 34%, T 21%, pred score 2.1-1.8 actual: HW (5-1)
## 2014-02-08 Norwich vs Man City, HW 4%, AW 87%, T 9%, pred score 0.6-3.1 actual: T (0-0)
## 2014-02-08 Southampton vs Stoke, HW 45%, AW 28%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-1 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-02-08 Sunderland vs Hull, HW 34%, AW 37%, T 29%, pred score 1.1-1.1 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-02-08 Crystal Palace vs West Brom, HW 33%, AW 36%, T 31%, pred score 1-1 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-02-08 Chelsea vs Newcastle, HW 71%, AW 10%, T 19%, pred score 2-0.6 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-02-08 Aston Villa vs West Ham, HW 30%, AW 41%, T 29%, pred score 1-1.2 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-02-08 Swansea vs Cardiff, HW 63%, AW 16%, T 21%, pred score 2-0.9 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-02-09 Spurs vs Everton, HW 27%, AW 48%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.5 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-02-09 Man Utd vs Fulham, HW 75%, AW 10%, T 15%, pred score 2.7-0.9 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-02-11 Cardiff vs Aston Villa, HW 26%, AW 47%, T 27%, pred score 1-1.4 actual: T (0-0)
## 2014-02-11 Hull vs Southampton, HW 23%, AW 49%, T 27%, pred score 0.9-1.4 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-02-11 West Brom vs Chelsea, HW 10%, AW 71%, T 19%, pred score 0.6-2 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-02-11 West Ham vs Norwich, HW 48%, AW 22%, T 30%, pred score 1.2-0.7 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-02-12 Fulham vs Liverpool, HW 5%, AW 88%, T 7%, pred score 1.1-4.3 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2014-02-12 Arsenal vs Man Utd, HW 41%, AW 34%, T 25%, pred score 1.5-1.3 actual: T (0-0)
## 2014-02-12 Newcastle vs Spurs, HW 26%, AW 49%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: AW (0-4)
## 2014-02-12 Stoke vs Swansea, HW 33%, AW 41%, T 26%, pred score 1.2-1.4 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-02-22 Cardiff vs Hull, HW 23%, AW 49%, T 28%, pred score 0.9-1.4 actual: AW (0-4)
## 2014-02-22 Man City vs Stoke, HW 74%, AW 10%, T 15%, pred score 2.6-0.9 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-02-22 West Brom vs Fulham, HW 52%, AW 25%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-1.2 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-02-22 Crystal Palace vs Man Utd, HW 18%, AW 56%, T 26%, pred score 0.7-1.5 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-02-22 Arsenal vs Sunderland, HW 64%, AW 15%, T 21%, pred score 2-0.9 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2014-02-22 Chelsea vs Everton, HW 49%, AW 23%, T 28%, pred score 1.4-0.8 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-02-22 West Ham vs Southampton, HW 26%, AW 47%, T 28%, pred score 0.9-1.4 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-02-23 Liverpool vs Swansea, HW 65%, AW 18%, T 17%, pred score 2.7-1.4 actual: HW (4-3)
## 2014-02-23 Norwich vs Spurs, HW 16%, AW 60%, T 24%, pred score 0.7-1.7 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-02-23 Newcastle vs Aston Villa, HW 40%, AW 33%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.2 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-03-01 Fulham vs Chelsea, HW 5%, AW 85%, T 11%, pred score 0.6-2.9 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2014-03-01 Hull vs Newcastle, HW 35%, AW 36%, T 29%, pred score 1.1-1.1 actual: AW (1-4)
## 2014-03-01 Southampton vs Liverpool, HW 22%, AW 58%, T 19%, pred score 1.4-2.3 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-03-01 Everton vs West Ham, HW 55%, AW 19%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-0.8 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-03-01 Stoke vs Arsenal, HW 20%, AW 56%, T 24%, pred score 0.9-1.7 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-03-02 Spurs vs Cardiff, HW 64%, AW 15%, T 21%, pred score 2-0.8 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-03-02 Aston Villa vs Norwich, HW 44%, AW 26%, T 30%, pred score 1.2-0.9 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2014-03-02 Swansea vs Crystal Palace, HW 45%, AW 26%, T 29%, pred score 1.3-0.9 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-03-08 Cardiff vs Fulham, HW 35%, AW 40%, T 25%, pred score 1.4-1.5 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-03-08 Norwich vs Stoke, HW 20%, AW 52%, T 28%, pred score 0.7-1.4 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-03-08 West Brom vs Man Utd, HW 19%, AW 59%, T 22%, pred score 0.9-1.9 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-03-08 Crystal Palace vs Southampton, HW 22%, AW 49%, T 29%, pred score 0.8-1.3 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-03-08 Chelsea vs Spurs, HW 62%, AW 16%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-0.8 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2014-03-15 Fulham vs Newcastle, HW 25%, AW 52%, T 23%, pred score 1.2-1.8 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-03-15 Hull vs Man City, HW 8%, AW 78%, T 14%, pred score 0.7-2.6 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-03-15 Southampton vs Norwich, HW 61%, AW 15%, T 24%, pred score 1.6-0.7 actual: HW (4-2)
## 2014-03-15 Sunderland vs Crystal Palace, HW 34%, AW 34%, T 31%, pred score 1-1 actual: T (0-0)
## 2014-03-15 Aston Villa vs Chelsea, HW 8%, AW 74%, T 18%, pred score 0.5-2.1 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-03-15 Everton vs Cardiff, HW 73%, AW 10%, T 17%, pred score 2.2-0.6 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-03-15 Stoke vs West Ham, HW 38%, AW 33%, T 29%, pred score 1.1-1 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-03-15 Swansea vs West Brom, HW 47%, AW 28%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1.2 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-03-16 Spurs vs Arsenal, HW 25%, AW 51%, T 24%, pred score 1.1-1.7 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-03-16 Man Utd vs Liverpool, HW 29%, AW 50%, T 21%, pred score 1.7-2.2 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-03-22 Cardiff vs Liverpool, HW 5%, AW 87%, T 8%, pred score 0.9-3.7 actual: AW (3-6)
## 2014-03-22 Hull vs West Brom, HW 35%, AW 36%, T 29%, pred score 1.1-1.1 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-03-22 Man City vs Fulham, HW 92%, AW 3%, T 6%, pred score 4.2-0.8 actual: HW (5-0)
## 2014-03-22 Norwich vs Sunderland, HW 25%, AW 46%, T 29%, pred score 0.8-1.3 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-03-22 Chelsea vs Arsenal, HW 49%, AW 24%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-0.9 actual: HW (6-0)
## 2014-03-22 Everton vs Swansea, HW 50%, AW 25%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1.1 actual: HW (3-2)
## 2014-03-22 Newcastle vs Crystal Palace, HW 36%, AW 33%, T 31%, pred score 1-1 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-03-22 West Ham vs Man Utd, HW 20%, AW 54%, T 25%, pred score 0.9-1.6 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-03-23 Spurs vs Southampton, HW 34%, AW 40%, T 26%, pred score 1.3-1.4 actual: HW (3-2)
## 2014-03-23 Aston Villa vs Stoke, HW 28%, AW 45%, T 27%, pred score 1-1.4 actual: AW (1-4)
## 2014-03-25 Man Utd vs Man City, HW 21%, AW 59%, T 20%, pred score 1.2-2.2 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-03-25 Arsenal vs Swansea, HW 53%, AW 24%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-1.1 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-03-25 Newcastle vs Everton, HW 18%, AW 59%, T 23%, pred score 0.9-1.8 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-03-26 Liverpool vs Sunderland, HW 76%, AW 11%, T 14%, pred score 3-1.1 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-03-26 West Ham vs Hull, HW 37%, AW 32%, T 31%, pred score 1-1 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-03-29 Southampton vs Newcastle, HW 50%, AW 24%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2014-03-29 West Brom vs Cardiff, HW 52%, AW 23%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1 actual: T (3-3)
## 2014-03-29 Man Utd vs Aston Villa, HW 62%, AW 16%, T 22%, pred score 1.9-0.9 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2014-03-29 Crystal Palace vs Chelsea, HW 10%, AW 67%, T 24%, pred score 0.5-1.6 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-03-29 Arsenal vs Man City, HW 24%, AW 55%, T 21%, pred score 1.3-2.1 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-03-29 Stoke vs Hull, HW 40%, AW 31%, T 29%, pred score 1.2-1 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-03-29 Swansea vs Norwich, HW 58%, AW 17%, T 24%, pred score 1.6-0.8 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-03-30 Fulham vs Everton, HW 10%, AW 75%, T 15%, pred score 0.8-2.5 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2014-03-30 Liverpool vs Spurs, HW 62%, AW 20%, T 18%, pred score 2.6-1.4 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2014-03-31 Sunderland vs West Ham, HW 32%, AW 39%, T 29%, pred score 1-1.2 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-04-05 Cardiff vs Crystal Palace, HW 24%, AW 46%, T 30%, pred score 0.8-1.2 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-04-05 Hull vs Swansea, HW 27%, AW 46%, T 27%, pred score 1-1.4 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-04-05 Man City vs Southampton, HW 66%, AW 16%, T 18%, pred score 2.3-1 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2014-04-05 Norwich vs West Brom, HW 24%, AW 48%, T 28%, pred score 0.8-1.3 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-04-05 Chelsea vs Stoke, HW 66%, AW 12%, T 22%, pred score 1.8-0.6 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-04-05 Aston Villa vs Fulham, HW 47%, AW 29%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-1.2 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-04-05 Newcastle vs Man Utd, HW 19%, AW 59%, T 22%, pred score 0.9-1.9 actual: AW (0-4)
## 2014-04-06 Everton vs Arsenal, HW 35%, AW 39%, T 26%, pred score 1.3-1.3 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-04-06 West Ham vs Liverpool, HW 13%, AW 70%, T 17%, pred score 1.1-2.6 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-04-07 Spurs vs Sunderland, HW 51%, AW 25%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1.1 actual: HW (5-1)
## 2014-04-12 Fulham vs Norwich, HW 38%, AW 35%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.2 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-04-12 Southampton vs Cardiff, HW 66%, AW 13%, T 21%, pred score 2-0.8 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-04-12 Sunderland vs Everton, HW 17%, AW 61%, T 23%, pred score 0.8-1.8 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-04-12 West Brom vs Spurs, HW 26%, AW 49%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: T (3-3)
## 2014-04-12 Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa, HW 36%, AW 33%, T 32%, pred score 1-0.9 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-04-12 Stoke vs Newcastle, HW 41%, AW 31%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.1 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-04-13 Liverpool vs Man City, HW 29%, AW 53%, T 18%, pred score 2-2.7 actual: HW (3-2)
## 2014-04-13 Swansea vs Chelsea, HW 14%, AW 64%, T 22%, pred score 0.7-1.9 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-04-15 Arsenal vs West Ham, HW 58%, AW 18%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-0.8 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-04-16 Man City vs Sunderland, HW 81%, AW 7%, T 12%, pred score 3-0.8 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-04-16 Everton vs Crystal Palace, HW 56%, AW 17%, T 27%, pred score 1.4-0.6 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2014-04-19 Cardiff vs Stoke, HW 19%, AW 56%, T 25%, pred score 0.8-1.6 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-04-19 Spurs vs Fulham, HW 66%, AW 16%, T 19%, pred score 2.3-1.1 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-04-19 Chelsea vs Sunderland, HW 72%, AW 9%, T 19%, pred score 2.1-0.6 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-04-19 Aston Villa vs Southampton, HW 21%, AW 54%, T 25%, pred score 0.9-1.6 actual: T (0-0)
## 2014-04-19 Newcastle vs Swansea, HW 28%, AW 47%, T 25%, pred score 1.2-1.6 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-04-19 West Ham vs Crystal Palace, HW 37%, AW 30%, T 33%, pred score 0.9-0.8 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-04-20 Hull vs Arsenal, HW 16%, AW 60%, T 23%, pred score 0.8-1.8 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-04-20 Norwich vs Liverpool, HW 6%, AW 83%, T 11%, pred score 0.7-3.1 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2014-04-20 Everton vs Man Utd, HW 38%, AW 35%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.3 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-04-21 Man City vs West Brom, HW 80%, AW 8%, T 12%, pred score 3-0.8 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-04-26 Fulham vs Hull, HW 26%, AW 49%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-04-26 Southampton vs Everton, HW 29%, AW 44%, T 27%, pred score 1.1-1.4 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-04-26 West Brom vs West Ham, HW 34%, AW 38%, T 29%, pred score 1.1-1.2 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-04-26 Man Utd vs Norwich, HW 69%, AW 11%, T 20%, pred score 1.9-0.6 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2014-04-26 Stoke vs Spurs, HW 31%, AW 43%, T 26%, pred score 1.2-1.4 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-04-26 Swansea vs Aston Villa, HW 51%, AW 25%, T 24%, pred score 1.6-1.1 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2014-04-27 Liverpool vs Chelsea, HW 30%, AW 48%, T 23%, pred score 1.4-1.8 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-04-27 Sunderland vs Cardiff, HW 50%, AW 25%, T 26%, pred score 1.5-1 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2014-04-27 Crystal Palace vs Man City, HW 8%, AW 76%, T 16%, pred score 0.6-2.4 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-04-28 Arsenal vs Newcastle, HW 62%, AW 16%, T 21%, pred score 2-0.9 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-05-03 Man Utd vs Sunderland, HW 61%, AW 17%, T 22%, pred score 1.9-0.9 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-05-03 Aston Villa vs Hull, HW 32%, AW 38%, T 30%, pred score 1-1.1 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-05-03 Everton vs Man City, HW 22%, AW 56%, T 21%, pred score 1.2-2 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2014-05-03 Newcastle vs Cardiff, HW 52%, AW 23%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-1 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-05-03 Stoke vs Fulham, HW 57%, AW 21%, T 22%, pred score 1.9-1.1 actual: HW (4-1)
## 2014-05-03 Swansea vs Southampton, HW 33%, AW 42%, T 26%, pred score 1.2-1.5 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2014-05-03 West Ham vs Spurs, HW 28%, AW 45%, T 27%, pred score 1-1.4 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-05-04 Arsenal vs West Brom, HW 62%, AW 17%, T 21%, pred score 2-0.9 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-05-04 Chelsea vs Norwich, HW 78%, AW 6%, T 17%, pred score 2.1-0.4 actual: T (0-0)
## 2014-05-05 Crystal Palace vs Liverpool, HW 12%, AW 71%, T 17%, pred score 0.9-2.4 actual: T (3-3)
## 2014-05-06 Man Utd vs Hull, HW 57%, AW 19%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-0.8 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-05-07 Man City vs Aston Villa, HW 82%, AW 6%, T 11%, pred score 3-0.8 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2014-05-07 Sunderland vs West Brom, HW 35%, AW 38%, T 27%, pred score 1.2-1.3 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-05-11 Cardiff vs Chelsea, HW 5%, AW 83%, T 13%, pred score 0.4-2.5 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-05-11 Fulham vs Crystal Palace, HW 27%, AW 46%, T 27%, pred score 1-1.4 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-05-11 Hull vs Everton, HW 17%, AW 58%, T 25%, pred score 0.7-1.6 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-05-11 Liverpool vs Newcastle, HW 74%, AW 12%, T 14%, pred score 3-1.1 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-05-11 Man City vs West Ham, HW 76%, AW 9%, T 15%, pred score 2.5-0.8 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-05-11 Norwich vs Arsenal, HW 10%, AW 71%, T 19%, pred score 0.6-2 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-05-11 Southampton vs Man Utd, HW 30%, AW 44%, T 26%, pred score 1.2-1.5 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-05-11 Spurs vs Aston Villa, HW 53%, AW 23%, T 24%, pred score 1.7-1 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-05-11 Sunderland vs Swansea, HW 27%, AW 49%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2014-05-11 West Brom vs Stoke, HW 31%, AW 41%, T 27%, pred score 1.1-1.3 actual: AW (1-2)# Simulate model 2
# Example : predict a match kick-off at home ground on last match-day
sim2 <- simulate(md2, hdv=1)##
##
## 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
## Swansea 1 3 6 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5
## West Ham 0 0 1 1 3 4 6 8 9 9 9 10 10
## Crystal Palace 2 4 4 4 5 6 5 5 6 7 8 7 5
## Cardiff 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 2 4
## Arsenal 2 4 7 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 5 5 5
## Man City 43 22 14 9 5 3 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
## Chelsea 21 18 12 8 8 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 1
## Liverpool 14 16 13 11 10 9 7 5 3 3 2 2 2
## Norwich 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 3 5
## Stoke 3 5 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 7 7 6 5
## Man Utd 2 4 6 8 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 5 5
## Hull 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 6 6 7 7 8
## Everton 1 3 5 8 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 6 6
## West Brom 0 0 1 2 4 5 6 7 7 7 7 8 9
## Fulham 1 2 2 2 3 4 3 4 5 6 7 6 5
## Southampton 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 9
## Spurs 2 3 5 6 7 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6
## Sunderland 5 7 8 5 2 1 1 1 2 3 4 5 4
## Aston Villa 0 1 1 1 1 2 2 3 4 5 5 5 4
## Newcastle 2 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2
## 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th
## Swansea 5 4 3 2 1 1 0
## West Ham 10 8 5 3 2 1 0
## Crystal Palace 4 5 6 5 4 5 5
## Cardiff 6 10 14 18 19 16 9
## Arsenal 4 3 2 1 1 0 0
## Man City 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
## Chelsea 1 1 1 1 0 0 0
## Liverpool 1 1 1 0 0 0 0
## Norwich 7 10 13 14 15 14 11
## Stoke 4 5 5 4 4 4 3
## Man Utd 4 3 2 1 1 0 0
## Hull 8 8 6 5 4 3 2
## Everton 5 4 3 2 1 1 0
## West Brom 9 8 7 5 3 2 1
## Fulham 5 6 7 7 7 8 9
## Southampton 9 7 5 3 3 2 1
## Spurs 6 5 4 3 2 2 1
## Sunderland 2 2 3 6 9 13 17
## Aston Villa 5 6 8 9 11 13 14
## Newcastle 3 4 6 10 14 16 24predict(md2, hdv=1, date=as.Date(max(scores$scores$date)))## Predicted Match Results for 1900-05-01 to 2100-06-01
## Model based on data from 2013-08-17 to 2014-05-11
## ---------------------------------------------
## 2014-05-11 Cardiff vs Chelsea, HW 4%, AW 85%, T 11%, pred score 0.5-2.8 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-05-11 Fulham vs Crystal Palace, HW 27%, AW 48%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-05-11 Hull vs Everton, HW 17%, AW 60%, T 23%, pred score 0.8-1.8 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-05-11 Liverpool vs Newcastle, HW 77%, AW 11%, T 13%, pred score 3.4-1.3 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-05-11 Man City vs West Ham, HW 78%, AW 9%, T 14%, pred score 2.8-0.9 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-05-11 Norwich vs Arsenal, HW 9%, AW 74%, T 17%, pred score 0.7-2.3 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-05-11 Southampton vs Man Utd, HW 31%, AW 45%, T 24%, pred score 1.3-1.6 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-05-11 Spurs vs Aston Villa, HW 54%, AW 23%, T 23%, pred score 1.9-1.1 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-05-11 Sunderland vs Swansea, HW 27%, AW 50%, T 23%, pred score 1.3-1.8 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2014-05-11 West Brom vs Stoke, HW 32%, AW 42%, T 25%, pred score 1.3-1.5 actual: AW (1-2)pr2 <- predict(md2, hdv=1)## Predicted Match Results for 1900-05-01 to 2100-06-01
## Model based on data from 2013-08-17 to 2014-05-11
## ---------------------------------------------
## 2013-08-17 Swansea vs Man Utd, HW 26%, AW 52%, T 22%, pred score 1.3-1.9 actual: AW (1-4)
## 2013-08-17 West Ham vs Cardiff, HW 53%, AW 22%, T 25%, pred score 1.6-0.9 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2013-08-18 Crystal Palace vs Spurs, HW 25%, AW 49%, T 26%, pred score 1-1.5 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-08-25 Cardiff vs Man City, HW 3%, AW 92%, T 6%, pred score 0.7-4 actual: HW (3-2)
## 2013-09-01 Arsenal vs Spurs, HW 53%, AW 26%, T 22%, pred score 1.9-1.3 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-09-21 West Ham vs Everton, HW 19%, AW 57%, T 24%, pred score 0.9-1.7 actual: AW (2-3)
## 2013-11-02 Man City vs Norwich, HW 88%, AW 4%, T 8%, pred score 3.4-0.6 actual: HW (7-0)
## 2013-11-03 Cardiff vs Swansea, HW 16%, AW 65%, T 19%, pred score 1-2.2 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-11-30 West Ham vs Fulham, HW 54%, AW 24%, T 22%, pred score 1.9-1.2 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2013-12-01 Chelsea vs Southampton, HW 60%, AW 17%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-0.8 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2013-12-08 Arsenal vs Everton, HW 40%, AW 36%, T 25%, pred score 1.5-1.4 actual: T (1-1)
## 2013-12-26 Cardiff vs Southampton, HW 13%, AW 68%, T 19%, pred score 0.8-2.2 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2013-12-28 West Ham vs West Brom, HW 38%, AW 34%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.2 actual: T (3-3)
## 2014-01-18 Liverpool vs Aston Villa, HW 80%, AW 9%, T 11%, pred score 3.4-1.2 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-01-18 Man City vs Cardiff, HW 92%, AW 3%, T 6%, pred score 4-0.7 actual: HW (4-2)
## 2014-01-18 Norwich vs Hull, HW 24%, AW 47%, T 29%, pred score 0.8-1.3 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-03-15 Stoke vs West Ham, HW 39%, AW 34%, T 27%, pred score 1.3-1.2 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-03-15 Swansea vs West Brom, HW 48%, AW 28%, T 23%, pred score 1.8-1.3 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-03-16 Man Utd vs Liverpool, HW 30%, AW 51%, T 19%, pred score 1.9-2.5 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-03-22 Hull vs West Brom, HW 36%, AW 37%, T 26%, pred score 1.3-1.3 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-04-06 Everton vs Arsenal, HW 36%, AW 40%, T 25%, pred score 1.4-1.5 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-04-26 West Brom vs West Ham, HW 34%, AW 39%, T 27%, pred score 1.2-1.3 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2014-04-26 Man Utd vs Norwich, HW 71%, AW 11%, T 18%, pred score 2.2-0.7 actual: HW (4-0)
## 2014-05-11 Cardiff vs Chelsea, HW 4%, AW 85%, T 11%, pred score 0.5-2.8 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2014-05-11 Fulham vs Crystal Palace, HW 27%, AW 48%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-05-11 Hull vs Everton, HW 17%, AW 60%, T 23%, pred score 0.8-1.8 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-05-11 Liverpool vs Newcastle, HW 77%, AW 11%, T 13%, pred score 3.4-1.3 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-05-11 Man City vs West Ham, HW 78%, AW 9%, T 14%, pred score 2.8-0.9 actual: HW (2-0)
## 2014-05-11 Norwich vs Arsenal, HW 9%, AW 74%, T 17%, pred score 0.7-2.3 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-05-11 Southampton vs Man Utd, HW 31%, AW 45%, T 24%, pred score 1.3-1.6 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-05-11 Spurs vs Aston Villa, HW 54%, AW 23%, T 23%, pred score 1.9-1.1 actual: HW (3-0)
## 2014-05-11 Sunderland vs Swansea, HW 27%, AW 51%, T 23%, pred score 1.3-1.8 actual: AW (1-3)
## 2014-05-11 West Brom vs Stoke, HW 32%, AW 42%, T 25%, pred score 1.3-1.5 actual: AW (1-2)# Simulate model 3
# Example : predict a match kick-off at Cardiff City Stadium on last match-day
sim3 <- simulate(md3, venue='Cardiff City Stadium')##
##
## 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
## Cardiff 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 1
## Man City 16 13 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2
## Everton 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5
## Spurs 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5
## Newcastle 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
## Swansea 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
## Man Utd 8 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4
## Arsenal 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 5 5 4 4 3
## West Brom 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
## Southampton 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
## Sunderland 2 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
## West Ham 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 7 7
## Norwich 1 2 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 5 5 5 6
## Aston Villa 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6
## Hull 2 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
## Fulham 2 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6
## Liverpool 14 12 12 11 10 8 7 5 4 3 3 2 2
## Crystal Palace 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 6 6 7 7
## Stoke 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 6
## Chelsea 10 10 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4
## 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th
## Cardiff 6 13 21 24 19 10 3
## Man City 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
## Everton 5 4 3 3 3 3 3
## Spurs 5 4 4 4 4 4 4
## Newcastle 6 6 5 5 5 6 6
## Swansea 5 5 4 4 4 4 4
## Man Utd 3 3 3 2 2 2 2
## Arsenal 3 3 2 2 2 2 2
## West Brom 6 6 5 5 5 6 7
## Southampton 5 5 4 4 3 4 4
## Sunderland 6 5 5 5 6 6 7
## West Ham 7 6 5 5 5 6 7
## Norwich 6 6 6 7 8 10 11
## Aston Villa 6 6 5 6 6 7 8
## Hull 6 6 5 5 6 6 7
## Fulham 6 5 6 7 8 9 10
## Liverpool 2 1 1 1 1 1 1
## Crystal Palace 7 6 6 5 6 7 8
## Stoke 5 5 4 4 5 5 5
## Chelsea 4 3 2 2 1 1 1predict(md3, venue='Cardiff City Stadium', date=as.Date(max(scores$scores$date)))## Predicted Match Results for 1900-05-01 to 2100-06-01
## Model based on data from 2013-08-17 to 2014-05-11
## ---------------------------------------------
## 2014-05-11 Cardiff vs Chelsea, HW 5%, AW 81%, T 14%, pred score 0.4-2.4 actual: AW (1-2)pr3 <- predict(md3, venue='Cardiff City Stadium')## Predicted Match Results for 1900-05-01 to 2100-06-01
## Model based on data from 2013-08-17 to 2014-05-11
## ---------------------------------------------
## 2013-08-25 Cardiff vs Man City, HW 3%, AW 89%, T 8%, pred score 0.6-3.5 actual: HW (3-2)
## 2013-08-31 Cardiff vs Everton, HW 10%, AW 70%, T 20%, pred score 0.6-2 actual: T (0-0)
## 2013-09-22 Cardiff vs Spurs, HW 15%, AW 66%, T 20%, pred score 0.9-2.1 actual: AW (0-1)
## 2013-10-05 Cardiff vs Newcastle, HW 23%, AW 52%, T 25%, pred score 1-1.6 actual: AW (1-2)
## 2013-11-03 Cardiff vs Swansea, HW 16%, AW 62%, T 22%, pred score 0.8-1.9 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-11-24 Cardiff vs Man Utd, HW 9%, AW 76%, T 15%, pred score 0.8-2.5 actual: T (2-2)
## 2013-11-30 Cardiff vs Arsenal, HW 8%, AW 80%, T 13%, pred score 0.8-2.9 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2013-12-14 Cardiff vs West Brom, HW 23%, AW 52%, T 25%, pred score 1-1.6 actual: HW (1-0)
## 2013-12-26 Cardiff vs Southampton, HW 14%, AW 64%, T 22%, pred score 0.7-1.8 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2013-12-28 Cardiff vs Sunderland, HW 24%, AW 51%, T 25%, pred score 1.1-1.6 actual: T (2-2)
## 2014-01-11 Cardiff vs West Ham, HW 21%, AW 50%, T 28%, pred score 0.8-1.3 actual: AW (0-2)
## 2014-02-01 Cardiff vs Norwich, HW 35%, AW 38%, T 27%, pred score 1.2-1.3 actual: HW (2-1)
## 2014-02-11 Cardiff vs Aston Villa, HW 26%, AW 48%, T 27%, pred score 1-1.5 actual: T (0-0)
## 2014-02-22 Cardiff vs Hull, HW 23%, AW 51%, T 25%, pred score 1-1.6 actual: AW (0-4)
## 2014-03-08 Cardiff vs Fulham, HW 35%, AW 41%, T 24%, pred score 1.4-1.6 actual: HW (3-1)
## 2014-03-22 Cardiff vs Liverpool, HW 4%, AW 88%, T 7%, pred score 0.9-4 actual: AW (3-6)
## 2014-04-05 Cardiff vs Crystal Palace, HW 24%, AW 46%, T 30%, pred score 0.8-1.2 actual: AW (0-3)
## 2014-04-19 Cardiff vs Stoke, HW 19%, AW 58%, T 22%, pred score 1-1.8 actual: T (1-1)
## 2014-05-11 Cardiff vs Chelsea, HW 5%, AW 81%, T 14%, pred score 0.4-2.4 actual: AW (1-2)Preview the predicted model, there will prob of home win, draw, away win, home attack defence index and vice verse, residuls etc.
# Preview the models
attributes(pr1)## $names
## [1] "scores" "home.score" "away.score" "home.goals.sum"
## [5] "home.goals" "away.goals.sum" "away.goals"head(pr1$scores)## x date home.team away.team venue home.score
## 374 374 2013-08-17 Liverpool Stoke Anfield 1
## 375 375 2013-08-17 Norwich Everton Carrow Road 2
## 376 376 2013-08-17 Sunderland Fulham Stadium of Light 0
## 377 377 2013-08-17 West Brom Southampton The Hawthorns 0
## 378 378 2013-08-17 Arsenal Aston Villa Emirates Stadium 1
## 379 379 2013-08-17 Swansea Man Utd Liberty Stadium 1
## away.score hdv home.residuals away.residuals pred.home.score
## 374 0 0 -1.6144627 -1.1851193 2.6144627
## 375 2 0 1.4435742 0.1724536 0.5564258
## 376 1 0 -1.7403878 -0.2292109 1.7403878
## 377 1 0 -0.9991654 -0.5730564 0.9991654
## 378 3 0 -1.0310349 2.1796430 2.0310349
## 379 4 1 -0.1793558 2.2794901 1.1793558
## pred.away.score home.attack home.defend away.attack away.defend
## 374 1.185119 0.7458438 0.2334077 -0.06356428 0.2152148
## 375 1.827546 -0.5290459 0.3745846 0.22838968 -0.0571755
## 376 1.229211 -0.1488850 0.3546618 -0.14828936 0.7029929
## 377 1.573056 -0.1021396 0.3398163 0.11320419 0.1013047
## 378 0.820357 0.3393157 0.0000000 -0.19801562 0.3692298
## 379 1.720510 0.1212422 0.2620823 0.28053841 0.0437262
## home.win away.win tie home.shutout away.shutout
## 374 68.066 15.268 16.666 7.453 30.806
## 375 10.444 68.232 21.324 57.441 16.000
## 376 49.353 27.121 23.526 17.710 29.372
## 377 24.122 50.632 25.246 36.903 20.730
## 378 65.624 14.185 20.191 13.288 43.986
## 379 26.133 50.143 23.724 30.779 18.117attributes(pr2)## $names
## [1] "scores" "home.score" "away.score" "home.goals.sum"
## [5] "home.goals" "away.goals.sum" "away.goals"head(pr2$scores)## x date home.team away.team venue
## 379 379 2013-08-17 Swansea Man Utd Liberty Stadium
## 380 380 2013-08-17 West Ham Cardiff Boleyn Ground
## 372 372 2013-08-18 Crystal Palace Spurs Selhurst Park
## 361 361 2013-08-25 Cardiff Man City Cardiff City Stadium
## 353 353 2013-09-01 Arsenal Spurs Emirates Stadium
## 340 340 2013-09-21 West Ham Everton Boleyn Ground
## home.score away.score hdv home.residuals away.residuals
## 379 1 4 1 -0.3187176 2.0656014
## 380 2 0 1 0.4147719 -0.9113630
## 372 0 1 1 -0.9547472 -0.4740984
## 361 3 2 1 2.2854204 -2.0421462
## 353 1 0 1 -0.9487673 -1.2928130
## 340 2 3 1 1.1293390 1.3088409
## pred.home.score pred.away.score home.attack home.defend away.attack
## 379 1.3187176 1.934399 0.1023642 0.2637597 0.2630479
## 380 1.5852281 0.911363 -0.2138723 0.1794389 -0.4052418
## 372 0.9547472 1.474098 -0.3899367 0.1312261 0.1238316
## 361 0.7145796 4.042146 -0.4052418 0.5416117 0.7221752
## 353 1.9487673 1.292813 0.3235691 0.0000000 0.1238316
## 340 0.8706610 1.691159 -0.2138723 0.1794389 0.2129863
## away.defend home.win away.win tie home.shutout away.shutout
## 379 0.04130660 26.032 51.706 22.262 26.351 14.427
## 380 0.54161171 53.266 21.516 25.218 20.443 40.246
## 372 0.21063909 24.513 49.072 26.415 38.619 23.097
## 361 -0.06380795 2.669 91.618 5.713 49.114 1.734
## 353 0.21063909 52.562 25.608 21.830 14.400 27.283
## 340 -0.05761918 19.177 56.963 23.860 42.000 18.488attributes(pr2)## $names
## [1] "scores" "home.score" "away.score" "home.goals.sum"
## [5] "home.goals" "away.goals.sum" "away.goals"head(pr2$scores)## x date home.team away.team venue
## 379 379 2013-08-17 Swansea Man Utd Liberty Stadium
## 380 380 2013-08-17 West Ham Cardiff Boleyn Ground
## 372 372 2013-08-18 Crystal Palace Spurs Selhurst Park
## 361 361 2013-08-25 Cardiff Man City Cardiff City Stadium
## 353 353 2013-09-01 Arsenal Spurs Emirates Stadium
## 340 340 2013-09-21 West Ham Everton Boleyn Ground
## home.score away.score hdv home.residuals away.residuals
## 379 1 4 1 -0.3187176 2.0656014
## 380 2 0 1 0.4147719 -0.9113630
## 372 0 1 1 -0.9547472 -0.4740984
## 361 3 2 1 2.2854204 -2.0421462
## 353 1 0 1 -0.9487673 -1.2928130
## 340 2 3 1 1.1293390 1.3088409
## pred.home.score pred.away.score home.attack home.defend away.attack
## 379 1.3187176 1.934399 0.1023642 0.2637597 0.2630479
## 380 1.5852281 0.911363 -0.2138723 0.1794389 -0.4052418
## 372 0.9547472 1.474098 -0.3899367 0.1312261 0.1238316
## 361 0.7145796 4.042146 -0.4052418 0.5416117 0.7221752
## 353 1.9487673 1.292813 0.3235691 0.0000000 0.1238316
## 340 0.8706610 1.691159 -0.2138723 0.1794389 0.2129863
## away.defend home.win away.win tie home.shutout away.shutout
## 379 0.04130660 26.032 51.706 22.262 26.351 14.427
## 380 0.54161171 53.266 21.516 25.218 20.443 40.246
## 372 0.21063909 24.513 49.072 26.415 38.619 23.097
## 361 -0.06380795 2.669 91.618 5.713 49.114 1.734
## 353 0.21063909 52.562 25.608 21.830 14.400 27.283
## 340 -0.05761918 19.177 56.963 23.860 42.000 18.488Apply anova to compare the models
#Show the predicted versus actual scores
rsd1 <- residuals(md1)
rsd2 <- residuals(md2)
rsd3 <- residuals(md3)
#'anova (md1,md2,md3, test='Chisq')
attributes(rsd1)## $names
## [1] "Arsenal" "Aston Villa" "Cardiff" "Chelsea"
## [5] "Crystal Palace" "Everton" "Fulham" "Hull"
## [9] "Liverpool" "Man City" "Man Utd" "Newcastle"
## [13] "Norwich" "Southampton" "Spurs" "Stoke"
## [17] "Sunderland" "Swansea" "West Brom" "West Ham"attributes(rsd2)## $names
## [1] "Arsenal" "Aston Villa" "Cardiff" "Chelsea"
## [5] "Crystal Palace" "Everton" "Fulham" "Hull"
## [9] "Liverpool" "Man City" "Man Utd" "Newcastle"
## [13] "Norwich" "Southampton" "Spurs" "Stoke"
## [17] "Sunderland" "Swansea" "West Brom" "West Ham"attributes(rsd3)## $names
## [1] "Arsenal" "Aston Villa" "Cardiff" "Chelsea"
## [5] "Crystal Palace" "Everton" "Fulham" "Hull"
## [9] "Liverpool" "Man City" "Man Utd" "Newcastle"
## [13] "Norwich" "Southampton" "Spurs" "Stoke"
## [17] "Sunderland" "Swansea" "West Brom" "West Ham"