source("more/arbuthnot.R")

The Data: Dr. Arbuthnot’s Baptism Records

The Arbuthnot data set refers to Dr. John Arbuthnot, an 18th century physician, writer, and mathematician. He was interested in the ratio of newborn boys to newborn girls, so he gathered the baptism records for children born in London for every year from 1629 to 1710. We can take a look at the data by typing its name into the console.

arbuthnot
##    year boys girls
## 1  1629 5218  4683
## 2  1630 4858  4457
## 3  1631 4422  4102
## 4  1632 4994  4590
## 5  1633 5158  4839
## 6  1634 5035  4820
## 7  1635 5106  4928
## 8  1636 4917  4605
## 9  1637 4703  4457
## 10 1638 5359  4952
## 11 1639 5366  4784
## 12 1640 5518  5332
## 13 1641 5470  5200
## 14 1642 5460  4910
## 15 1643 4793  4617
## 16 1644 4107  3997
## 17 1645 4047  3919
## 18 1646 3768  3395
## 19 1647 3796  3536
## 20 1648 3363  3181
## 21 1649 3079  2746
## 22 1650 2890  2722
## 23 1651 3231  2840
## 24 1652 3220  2908
## 25 1653 3196  2959
## 26 1654 3441  3179
## 27 1655 3655  3349
## 28 1656 3668  3382
## 29 1657 3396  3289
## 30 1658 3157  3013
## 31 1659 3209  2781
## 32 1660 3724  3247
## 33 1661 4748  4107
## 34 1662 5216  4803
## 35 1663 5411  4881
## 36 1664 6041  5681
## 37 1665 5114  4858
## 38 1666 4678  4319
## 39 1667 5616  5322
## 40 1668 6073  5560
## 41 1669 6506  5829
## 42 1670 6278  5719
## 43 1671 6449  6061
## 44 1672 6443  6120
## 45 1673 6073  5822
## 46 1674 6113  5738
## 47 1675 6058  5717
## 48 1676 6552  5847
## 49 1677 6423  6203
## 50 1678 6568  6033
## 51 1679 6247  6041
## 52 1680 6548  6299
## 53 1681 6822  6533
## 54 1682 6909  6744
## 55 1683 7577  7158
## 56 1684 7575  7127
## 57 1685 7484  7246
## 58 1686 7575  7119
## 59 1687 7737  7214
## 60 1688 7487  7101
## 61 1689 7604  7167
## 62 1690 7909  7302
## 63 1691 7662  7392
## 64 1692 7602  7316
## 65 1693 7676  7483
## 66 1694 6985  6647
## 67 1695 7263  6713
## 68 1696 7632  7229
## 69 1697 8062  7767
## 70 1698 8426  7626
## 71 1699 7911  7452
## 72 1700 7578  7061
## 73 1701 8102  7514
## 74 1702 8031  7656
## 75 1703 7765  7683
## 76 1704 6113  5738
## 77 1705 8366  7779
## 78 1706 7952  7417
## 79 1707 8379  7687
## 80 1708 8239  7623
## 81 1709 7840  7380
## 82 1710 7640  7288

You can see the dimensions of this data frame by typing:

dim(arbuthnot)
## [1] 82  3

This command should output [1] 82 3, indicating that there are 82 rows and 3 columns (we’ll get to what the [1] means in a bit), just as it says next to the object in your workspace. You can see the names of these columns (or variables) by typing:

names(arbuthnot)
## [1] "year"  "boys"  "girls"

You should see that the data frame contains the columns year, boys, and girls. At this point, you might notice that many of the commands in R look a lot like functions from math class; that is, invoking R commands means supplying a function with some number of arguments. The dim and names commands, for example, each took a single argument, the name of a data frame.

One advantage of RStudio is that it comes with a built-in data viewer. Click on the name arbuthnot in the Environment pane (upper right window) that lists the objects in your workspace. This will bring up an alternative display of the data set in the Data Viewer (upper left window). You can close the data viewer by clicking on the x in the upper lefthand corner.

Some Exploration

Let’s start to examine the data a little more closely. We can access the data in a single column of a data frame separately using a command like

arbuthnot$boys
##  [1] 5218 4858 4422 4994 5158 5035 5106 4917 4703 5359 5366 5518 5470 5460
## [15] 4793 4107 4047 3768 3796 3363 3079 2890 3231 3220 3196 3441 3655 3668
## [29] 3396 3157 3209 3724 4748 5216 5411 6041 5114 4678 5616 6073 6506 6278
## [43] 6449 6443 6073 6113 6058 6552 6423 6568 6247 6548 6822 6909 7577 7575
## [57] 7484 7575 7737 7487 7604 7909 7662 7602 7676 6985 7263 7632 8062 8426
## [71] 7911 7578 8102 8031 7765 6113 8366 7952 8379 8239 7840 7640

This command will only show the number of boys baptized each year.

  1. What command would you use to extract just the counts of girls baptized? Try it!

Answer

arbuthnot$girls
##  [1] 4683 4457 4102 4590 4839 4820 4928 4605 4457 4952 4784 5332 5200 4910
## [15] 4617 3997 3919 3395 3536 3181 2746 2722 2840 2908 2959 3179 3349 3382
## [29] 3289 3013 2781 3247 4107 4803 4881 5681 4858 4319 5322 5560 5829 5719
## [43] 6061 6120 5822 5738 5717 5847 6203 6033 6041 6299 6533 6744 7158 7127
## [57] 7246 7119 7214 7101 7167 7302 7392 7316 7483 6647 6713 7229 7767 7626
## [71] 7452 7061 7514 7656 7683 5738 7779 7417 7687 7623 7380 7288

R has some powerful functions for making graphics. We can create a simple plot of the number of girls baptized per year with the command

plot(x = arbuthnot$year, y = arbuthnot$girls)

plot(x = arbuthnot$year, y = arbuthnot$girls, type = "l")

?plot
## starting httpd help server ... done
  1. Is there an apparent trend in the number of girls baptized over the years?
    How would you describe it? Answer The highlights of the plot are starting in 1640 to 1650, there was a steep decline in the baptismal of girls. Then starting in 1659 or so, there was an exponential growth until 1700 where there was another v-shape decline and growth.

Now, suppose we want to plot the total number of baptisms. To compute this, we could use the fact that R is really just a big calculator. We can type in mathematical expressions like

5218 + 4683
## [1] 9901

to see the total number of baptisms in 1629. We could repeat this once for each year, but there is a faster way. If we add the vector for baptisms for boys and girls, R will compute all sums simultaneously.

arbuthnot$boys + arbuthnot$girls
##  [1]  9901  9315  8524  9584  9997  9855 10034  9522  9160 10311 10150
## [12] 10850 10670 10370  9410  8104  7966  7163  7332  6544  5825  5612
## [23]  6071  6128  6155  6620  7004  7050  6685  6170  5990  6971  8855
## [34] 10019 10292 11722  9972  8997 10938 11633 12335 11997 12510 12563
## [45] 11895 11851 11775 12399 12626 12601 12288 12847 13355 13653 14735
## [56] 14702 14730 14694 14951 14588 14771 15211 15054 14918 15159 13632
## [67] 13976 14861 15829 16052 15363 14639 15616 15687 15448 11851 16145
## [78] 15369 16066 15862 15220 14928

What you will see are 82 numbers (in that packed display, because we aren’t looking at a data frame here), each one representing the sum we’re after. Take a look at a few of them and verify that they are right. Therefore, we can make a plot of the total number of baptisms per year with the command

plot(arbuthnot$year, arbuthnot$boys + arbuthnot$girls, type = "l")

Similarly to how we computed the proportion of boys, we can compute the ratio of the number of boys to the number of girls baptized in 1629 with

5218 / 4683
## [1] 1.114243

or we can act on the complete vectors with the expression

arbuthnot$boys / arbuthnot$girls
##  [1] 1.114243 1.089971 1.078011 1.088017 1.065923 1.044606 1.036120
##  [8] 1.067752 1.055194 1.082189 1.121656 1.034884 1.051923 1.112016
## [15] 1.038120 1.027521 1.032661 1.109867 1.073529 1.057215 1.121267
## [22] 1.061719 1.137676 1.107290 1.080095 1.082416 1.091371 1.084565
## [29] 1.032533 1.047793 1.153901 1.146905 1.156075 1.085988 1.108584
## [36] 1.063369 1.052697 1.083121 1.055242 1.092266 1.116143 1.097744
## [43] 1.064016 1.052778 1.043112 1.065354 1.059647 1.120575 1.035467
## [50] 1.088679 1.034100 1.039530 1.044237 1.024466 1.058536 1.062860
## [57] 1.032846 1.064054 1.072498 1.054359 1.060974 1.083128 1.036526
## [64] 1.039092 1.025792 1.050850 1.081931 1.055748 1.037981 1.104904
## [71] 1.061594 1.073219 1.078254 1.048981 1.010673 1.065354 1.075460
## [78] 1.072132 1.090022 1.080808 1.062331 1.048299

The proportion of newborns that are boys

5218 / (5218 + 4683)
## [1] 0.5270175

or this may also be computed for all years simultaneously:

arbuthnot$boys / (arbuthnot$boys + arbuthnot$girls)
##  [1] 0.5270175 0.5215244 0.5187705 0.5210768 0.5159548 0.5109082 0.5088698
##  [8] 0.5163831 0.5134279 0.5197362 0.5286700 0.5085714 0.5126523 0.5265188
## [15] 0.5093518 0.5067868 0.5080341 0.5260366 0.5177305 0.5139059 0.5285837
## [22] 0.5149679 0.5322023 0.5254569 0.5192526 0.5197885 0.5218447 0.5202837
## [29] 0.5080030 0.5116694 0.5357262 0.5342132 0.5361942 0.5206108 0.5257482
## [36] 0.5153557 0.5128359 0.5199511 0.5134394 0.5220493 0.5274422 0.5232975
## [43] 0.5155076 0.5128552 0.5105507 0.5158214 0.5144798 0.5284297 0.5087122
## [50] 0.5212285 0.5083822 0.5096910 0.5108199 0.5060426 0.5142178 0.5152360
## [57] 0.5080788 0.5155165 0.5174905 0.5132301 0.5147925 0.5199527 0.5089677
## [64] 0.5095857 0.5063659 0.5123973 0.5196766 0.5135590 0.5093183 0.5249190
## [71] 0.5149385 0.5176583 0.5188268 0.5119526 0.5026541 0.5158214 0.5181790
## [78] 0.5174052 0.5215362 0.5194175 0.5151117 0.5117899

On Your Own

In the previous few pages, you recreated some of the displays and preliminary analysis of Arbuthnot’s baptism data. Your assignment involves repeating these steps, but for present day birth records in the United States. Load up the present day data with the following command.

source("more/present.R")

The data are stored in a data frame called present.

dim(present)
## [1] 63  3

what are the variable or column names?

names(present)
## [1] "year"  "boys"  "girls"

Answer There are 19 less observations for the present data frame (63) than the arbuthnot data frame (82), but there are the same number of independent variables for each

plot(present$year, present$boys / present$girls, type = "l")

Answer:The proportion of boys born to girls peaked twice in the 1940s with a steady decline from the last peak prior to 1950. The proporation started a steep decline. and have never returned to their peek

##Create e new column

present$total_births = present$boys+present$girls
present$year[present$total_births == max(present$total_births)]
## [1] 1961

That was a short introduction to R and RStudio, but we will provide you with more functions and a more complete sense of the language as the course progresses. Feel free to browse around the websites for R and RStudio if you’re interested in learning more, or find more labs for practice at http://openintro.org.