Simulacion montecarlo

servidor windows costo $ 100,000 hasta $ 200,000 actualizacion de software $ 275,000 a $ 500,000. capacitacion $9,000 a $10,000 Windows min $384000 max $710,000 estimado 435,000 servidor linux costo $ 80,000 hasta $ 210,000. actualizacion de software $ 250,000 a $ 525,000. capacitacion $ 8,000 a $ 17,500 Linux min 338000 max 752500 estimado 410000

get_montecarloest <- function(vmin,vmax,vest){
    mn <- (vmin + 4*vest + vmax)/6
  s <- abs((vmax - vmin)/6)
  
  valmontecarlo <- rnorm(1, mean=mn, sd=s)
  
  return(valmontecarlo)
}
get_sim<-function(x,vmin,vmax,vest){
    
    times <- get_montecarloest(vmin,vmax,vest)
    return (times)
}

hacemos test de la funcion de montecarlo

get_montecarloest(384000,710000,410000)

aplicamos la funcion para windows y linux con 10000 iteraciones

simulacion<-10000
sim_win<-sapply(1:simulacion, get_sim,vmin=384000,vmax=710000,vest=435000)
sim_lin<-sapply(1:simulacion, get_sim,vmin=338000,vmax=752500,vest=410000)
print(paste("windows: ",mean(sim_win)," Linux:", mean(sim_lin)))

[1] "windows:  471665.660191291  Linux: 454384.271605227"

print(paste("STD windows: ",sd(sim_win)," STD Linux:", sd(sim_lin)))

[1] "STD windows:  54245.3854852991  STD Linux: 68615.9216241588"

La mejor opcion es linux si no se evalua la desviacion estandar

plot( sim_win, type='l')


summary(sim_win)

   Min. 1st Qu.  Median    Mean 3rd Qu.    Max. 
 272483  434773  471989  471666  508354  678870

hist(sim_win)

hist(sim_lin)

library(tidyverse)
quantile(sim_win, probs = 0:10/10)

      0%      10%      20%      30%      40%      50%      60%      70%      80%      90%     100% 
272483.2 401101.2 426095.1 443531.2 458437.2 471988.7 485109.8 500351.3 517096.8 540895.8 678870.2

print("probabilidaD windows:")

[1] "probabilidaD windows:"

length(sim_win[sim_win >472293])/length(sim_win)

[1] 0.4982

print("probabilidaD linux:")

[1] "probabilidaD linux:"

length(sim_lin[sim_lin >410000])/length(sim_lin)

[1] 0.7406

Basado en este resultado preferimos la opcion de windows por que la probabilidad de linux es mucho mayor

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