ETS Model

      Jan  Feb  Mar  Apr  May  Jun  Jul  Aug  Sep  Oct  Nov  Dec
2016                                         1277  520 1122  928
2017  996  993 1203 1837 1540 1402  856 1341 1218 1416 2237 1229
2018 1550 1581 2004 2991 1793 2143  637 2014 2680 2239 2200 2583
2019 2336 1664 1288 1218 1588 1039 1491                         

Series: testing_ts 
ARIMA(3,1,1) 

Coefficients:
         ar1     ar2      ar3      ma1
      0.0843  0.0226  -0.2076  -0.6530
s.e.  0.3115  0.2163   0.1922   0.2883

sigma^2 estimated as 305663:  log likelihood=-261.17
AIC=532.34   AICc=534.48   BIC=539.97

# A tibble: 2 x 2
  term  estimate
  <chr>    <dbl>
1 alpha    0.388
2 l     1061.   

# A tibble: 1 x 12
  model.desc sigma logLik   AIC   BIC    ME  RMSE   MAE   MPE  MAPE  MASE
  <chr>      <dbl>  <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl> <dbl>
1 ETS(M,N,N) 0.340  -279.  564.  569.  25.9  527.  378. -9.47  29.5 0.525
# ... with 1 more variable: ACF1 <dbl>

Arima model

Process: https://otexts.com/fpp2/arimaflowchart.png

Moving Averages