7/14/2019

Introduction

Social influence bias

  • What is it?

    • “The tendency for individuals to conform to the ‘norm’ in a community”

    • Example: a buyer’s rating of a product on Amazon (or a movie on Netflix) may be influenced by the average rating displayed

  • Why does it matter?

    • User ratings may be biased, i.e., ratings may not accurately reflect the user’s true opinion

    • User ratings may be closer to the mean / median of all ratings and less diverse than the community’s range of evaluation

Case study: California Report Card (CRC)

  • Online survey relating to California’s performance on various political issues. E.g., “Please grade the State of California on Implementation of the Affordable Care Act”

  • Participants are asked to assign letter grades (A+ through F, a range of 13 ratings) on each issue

  • After the initial ratings are entered, participants are shown the median ratings (from all users up to that point) for each issue, and are allowed to change their ratings

Case study: Findings

  • Data was collected from 1/18/2014 to 4/20/2014, including 1,575 participants and 9,390 ratings

  • Over the observation period:

    • 556 out of 1,575 participants (35%) changed one or more ratings after seeing the median ratings
    • 862 out of 9,390 ratings (9%) were adjusted
  • In aggregate, ratings that were changed were 19.3% closer to the median value (lower dispersion), on average, than ratings that were not changed

  • Ratings that were changed would have to be adjusted by 2/3 of a letter grade, on average across all issues, in order for the variability about the median to be equivalent to that for the ratings that were not changed

Two models were developed

  • Correction model to estimate the initial (true) ratings as a function of the final ratings and the median ratings

    ==> this model can be used to correct (i.e., remove bias from) the final ratings and infer the initial ratings

  • Prediction model to estimate the final (potentially adjusted) ratings as a function of the initial ratings and the median ratings

    ==> this model can be used to study the social bias effect, e.g., drivers of the effect, potential asymmetry of initial ratings below / above the median

Conclusions

  • Social influence bias can be substantial when users have access to ratings from other users (individually or in aggregate)

  • This bias may weaken the effectiveness of collaborative filtering techniques that rely on similarity measures of user-item ratings

  • The study suggests that the bias effect can be quantified and mitigated using machine learning methods