Tuesday, June 25, 2019

WMATA - Introduction

There are 6 colored lines and 91 metro stations. Many stations are on multiple lines and that is something we must account for in our exploratory analysis.

  1. Red - 27 stations
  2. Orange - 26 stations
  3. Blue - 27 stations
  4. Green - 21 stations
  5. Yellow - 17 stations
  6. Silver - 28 stations

Elevators and Escalators

There are a combined total of 892 elevators and escalators within the WMATA system There are 277 elevators, and 615 escalators. Below is a breakdown by line color (and includes overlap stations):




Red Orange Blue Green Yellow Silver
Elevator 76 74 76 54 61 94
Escalator 203 214 234 162 177 234

Initial Hypotheses

  • Are more escalator and elevator outages reported on certain days of the week?

  • Are escalator and elevator outages reported more during certain times of the day?

  • When elevators and escalators are inspected less frequently, will more break downs occur?

Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA)

Outages on Certain Days of Week

  • Our proportion uses the total breakdowns for all day types within the month (e.g., total Sundays), and bases its proportion on the total breakdowns for the corresponding month.

  • The proportion of breakdowns are much higher during the week (Monday - Friday) opposed to the weekends.

Outages on Certain Days of Week

Outages at Certain Times of Day

Initial Hypothesis
The DC Metro’s system of escalators and elevators disproportionately affect travelers by being closed during Rush Hour. “Rush Hour” to be defined as between 7:00-9:00am and 4:00-6:00pm.

Data-Driven Hypothesis
The spikes at 9:00am and 11:00am to be caused by the reporting officials to start their days/report the maintenance findings during those times.

Breaks Reported During a Day

Breaks Reported on Mondays

Breaks Reported on Saturdays

Breaks Reported on Sundays

Inspections vs Breaks

  • Breaks appear to increase as inspections increase.
  • Counter to expected findings.
  • What could be causing this?

Data-Driven Hypotheses

Data-Driven Hypotheses

  • The proportion of breakdowns occurring from Monday - Friday are fairly close in comparison.
  • To further expound our exploration, we could:
    • Incorporate the unit_ids, group the elevators/escalators by train station,
    • Implement geo mapping to visualize which train stations have the most breakdowns, and
    • Examine the proximity of train stations with frequent elevator/escalator breakdowns.
  • Subsequently, this may prompt additional efforts to incorporate ridership data.

Monthly Average Downtime

  • Downtime throughout the year is consistent.

Inspections Per Month

  • Inspections are mostly uniform throughout the year.

Time of Month vs. Downtime

  • Slight positive correlation between day of month and downtime.

Seasonal Trends in Downtime

Remaining Months

Remaining Months

Bonus: Predictive Model

Bonus: Predictive Model

Bonus: Predictive Model

Confusion Matrix

##          Actual
## Predicted    No   Yes
##       No  29260 10298
##       Yes   202   261

Fit Statistics

##   Accuracy Rate      Error Rate     Sensitivity     Specificity 
##          0.7376          0.2624          0.0247          0.9931 
## False Positives 
##          0.0069

Discussion

  • WMATA labor union uses “Pick” system
    • This contributes to longer than normal service downtime and repeated breaks
  • Outages are often unreported or reported the following day causing a spike in sudden closures.
  • There is no indication that inspections influence breaks.
    • Are inspections ever done retroactively?
  • Downtime is relatively uniform throughout the year, but some indications of seasonal variation may inspire further research
    • Holidays and weather could be factors

References

References

Metrorail Engineering and Maintenance Internal Review, WMATA, 2017, QICO, retrieved from https://www.wmata.com/initiatives/transparency/upload/Metrorail-Engineering-and-Maintenance-QICO-Internal-Review-November-17-2017.pdf.

READ ME, Dataset Information, (http://data.codefordc.org/dataset/wmata-escalators-elevators-hotcars/resource/0ee4eac7-ba7f-4a9f-bc15-d635a24b2cb3)

Why Are Elevators/Escalators Out of Service for Repair?, WMATA, retrieved from [https://www.wmata.com/service/elevators-escalators/outage-types.cfm]

Appendix 1 Data Frame: Unit_Status

This data frame is powered by the DC Metro Metrics application which includes a list of all stored “unit statuses” between June 1, 2013 and February 22, 2015.