There is significant variability in the annual number of campers at many of the United States’ most popular national parks. Further, this variation is even greater when segmented by RV Campers, Tent Campers, and Backcountry Campers. Each group puts different strains on resources and services. Having a forecast of how many people to expect each year is very helpful.

The application addresses this need providing a simple interface that allows users with little statistical knowledge to quickly and easily create and customize powerful forecasts for their specific needs.

The data for the project was accessed through https://irma.nps.gov/Stats/Reports/National. Camping data available for all parks starting in 1979. Below is a sample of the cleaned timeseries data for tent camping over the past 6 years at the Grand Canyon.

Time Series:
Start = 2013 
End = 2018 
Frequency = 1 
     Grand Canyon NP
[1,]          111229
[2,]           73502
[3,]          207490
[4,]          206626
[5,]          147320
[6,]          139004

An exponential smoothing forecast model with the following options and selections is utilized:

• park
• type of camping
• year to forecast
• forecasting method

The application produces:

• a plot of historical campers over time for the park
• a forecast of future years graphically
• a table of the mean forecast value with P95 upper and lower bounds

selections: Grand Canyon, Tent camping, forecast through 2025, additive error and trending