Harrison Hockey League
Troy Hernandez
June 29, 2019
We should really wait until we’ve played 20 or 30 games to get a sufficient sample size for analysis, but I’m doing it anyway! We finally have a reasonable amount of data!
Season Stats
The winners of a game are automatically the home team. They get a 1. The losers are the away team and get a -1.
| Home | Away | Diff | Date | Derek | YoungChris | Troy | Aaron | Travis | Jeff | Tim | Kevin | WiseChris | Dan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19/05/04 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19/05/04 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 19/05/11 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19/05/11 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19/05/11 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19/05/11 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19/05/11 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19/05/11 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19/05/18 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19/05/18 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 11 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19/05/18 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19/05/18 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
| 13 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19/05/25 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 14 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 19/05/25 | 1 | -1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 15 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19/05/25 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
| 16 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 19/05/25 | -1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19/06/01 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 19/06/01 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19/06/01 | 1 | -1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19/06/08 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 21 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19/06/08 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 22 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19/06/08 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 23 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19/06/22 | 1 | -1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 24 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 19/06/22 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 25 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 19/06/22 | 1 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 26 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19/06/22 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 27 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 19/06/29 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 28 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 19/06/29 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | -1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 29 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 19/06/29 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Games Played
This does not include games playing neutral
| Derek | YoungChris | Troy | Aaron | Travis | Jeff | Tim | Kevin | WiseChris | Dan |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28.00 | 27.00 | 24.00 | 17.00 | 16.00 | 12.00 | 9.00 | 5.00 | 4.00 | 3.00 |
Plus/Minus
| Derek | Jeff | WiseChris | Troy | Dan | Travis | Tim | Aaron | Kevin | YoungChris |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 72.00 | -1.00 | -2.00 | -5.00 | -6.00 | -8.00 | -10.00 | -17.00 | -19.00 | -25.00 |
Plus/Minus Per Game (PMPG)
| Derek | Jeff | Troy | Travis | WiseChris | YoungChris | Aaron | Tim | Dan | Kevin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.57 | -0.08 | -0.21 | -0.50 | -0.50 | -0.93 | -1.00 | -1.11 | -2.00 | -3.80 |
This is how it’s evolved throughout the season
Linearly Adjusted Plus/Minus Per Game (LAPMPG)
We should really wait until we’ve played 20 or 30 games to do all this…
| Derek | Jeff | Troy | WiseChris | YoungChris | Aaron | Dan | Travis | Tim | Kevin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 1.44 | 0.85 | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.57 | 0.27 | 0.22 | -0.36 | -1.32 |
Advanced Linearly Adjusted Plus/Minus Per Game (ALAPMPG)
Using a more advanced and conservative model, we find that:
- Kevin did not have a good day
- Derek is good
- The rest of us are mediocre
| Derek | Troy | Aaron | YoungChris | Jeff | WiseChris | Dan | Tim | Travis | Kevin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.20 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.12 | -0.24 | -1.19 |
As we get more data this will be the best estimate… the one we should focus on.
Comparing the metrics
If you’re on the line, then both metrics agree. If you’re above the line, you’re doing better on PMPG metric. If you’re below the line, you’re doing better on the other metric.
Proportion of Games Played Together
This is a social network analysis. A 1 indicates player A plays on the same team 100% of the time with player B; i.e you always play with yourself! Ha! A -1 would indicate player A always plays against player B. Numbers close to 0 indicate that player A doesn’t typically play in the same games as player B or that they play with and against each other an equal proportion of the time.
| Derek | YoungChris | Troy | Aaron | Travis | Jeff | Tim | Kevin | WiseChris | Dan | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derek | 1.00 | -0.44 | -0.27 | -0.18 | 0.09 | -0.22 | -0.06 | -0.34 | -0.19 | -0.33 |
| YoungChris | -0.44 | 1.00 | -0.08 | -0.14 | -0.38 | 0.00 | -0.19 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.11 |
| Troy | -0.27 | -0.08 | 1.00 | -0.25 | -0.15 | -0.18 | 0.00 | -0.37 | 0.20 | 0.12 |
| Aaron | -0.18 | -0.14 | -0.25 | 1.00 | 0.00 | -0.21 | -0.16 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.42 |
| Travis | 0.09 | -0.38 | -0.15 | 0.00 | 1.00 | -0.29 | 0.17 | 0.00 | -0.25 | -0.43 |
| Jeff | -0.22 | 0.00 | -0.18 | -0.21 | -0.29 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Tim | -0.06 | -0.19 | 0.00 | -0.16 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | -0.19 |
| Kevin | -0.34 | 0.26 | -0.37 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| WiseChris | -0.19 | 0.00 | 0.20 | 0.00 | -0.25 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Dan | -0.33 | 0.11 | 0.12 | 0.42 | -0.43 | 0.00 | -0.19 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
The list of suggestions for who should play with or against each other next time.
| Player A | Player B | W/A | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| YoungChris | Derek | With | -0.44 |
| Dan | Travis | With | -0.43 |
| Dan | Aaron | Against | 0.42 |
| Travis | YoungChris | With | -0.38 |
| Kevin | Troy | With | -0.37 |
| Kevin | Derek | With | -0.34 |
| Dan | Derek | With | -0.33 |
| Kevin | Aaron | Against | 0.33 |
| Jeff | Travis | With | -0.29 |
| Troy | Derek | With | -0.27 |
| Kevin | YoungChris | Against | 0.26 |
| Aaron | Troy | With | -0.25 |
| WiseChris | Travis | With | -0.25 |
| Jeff | Derek | With | -0.22 |
| Jeff | Aaron | With | -0.21 |
| WiseChris | Troy | Against | 0.2 |
| WiseChris | Derek | With | -0.19 |
| Tim | YoungChris | With | -0.19 |
| Dan | Tim | With | -0.19 |
| Aaron | Derek | With | -0.18 |
| Jeff | Troy | With | -0.18 |
| Tim | Travis | Against | 0.17 |
| Tim | Aaron | With | -0.16 |
| Travis | Troy | With | -0.15 |
| Aaron | YoungChris | With | -0.14 |
| Dan | Troy | Against | 0.12 |
| Dan | YoungChris | Against | 0.11 |
| Travis | Derek | Against | 0.09 |
| Troy | YoungChris | With | -0.08 |
| Tim | Derek | With | -0.06 |