About the project

Climate change is predicted to have significant impacts on New England’s biodiversity. If emissions continue unabated, mean global temperature is predicted to rise by 3-5 ºC by the end of the century, and well beyond the range of natural variability. 1 Changes are already evident in Acadia National Park (ACAD). Between 1895 and 2010, annual precipitation significantly increased in ACAD by 16% and temperatures by 0.8 ºC; the rate of temperature increase in the park is expected to be 3-6 times greater by 2100, particularly in inland portions. 2

Identifying climate change refugia for representative species can provide valuable information for adapting to climate change. 3. Climate change refugia are areas relatively buffered from contemporary climate change over time that enable persistence of valued physical, ecological, and socio-cultural resources.4. Many of the physical characteristics and microclimatic gradients that can create climate change refugia - such as high spatial heterogeneity in topography and habitat, proximity to large water bodies, and regular inland diffusion of coastal fog 5 6 - are present in ACAD (Fig. 1).

This project seeks to identify and map climate change refugia for a suite of species in the Acadia National Park Region, and to work with managers to use these data products in strategically guiding on-the-ground management and conservation actions.


Figure 1. Examples of geographic locations likely to be buffered from climate change (from Morelli et al. 2016)


Methods

This project is one of the first to pioneer the application of the climate change refugia conservation cycle (Fig. 2), a framework recently developed by the National Park Service (NPS), USDA Forest Service (USFS), and academic scientists.7 We engaged stakeholders and partners from relevant management organizations throughout the project to ensure that our work was effectively guided by and informing management objectives. 8 9

We developed climate change refugia maps for the focal species identified by stakeholders and partners using three different modeling frameworks.

Tree Refugia Maps: We developed maps of potential climate change refugia for tree species using data products developed by Duveneck and Thompson10. The input data were 250 m resolution estimates of above-ground biomass (g/m2) for each tree species across the landscape, based on simulation models that incorporate forest dynamics, forest ecosystem processes, and climate variation.

Designing Sustainable Landscapes (DSL): This page also displays climate change refugia maps developed through The University of Massachusetts, Amherst, and the North Atlantic Landscape Conservation Cooperative’s Designing Sustainable Landscapes (DSL) project. 11

Second Century Stewardship (SCS): We developed statistical models to assess climate change refugia for the remaining focal species. We developed species distribution models12 using occupancy data from iNaturalist, GBIF, the Environmental Protection Agency’s National Aquatic Resource Surveys, Nature’s Phenology Notebook and eBird. We included a range of relevant environmental variables in models for each species, as well as fine-scale climate data developed through the DSL project. We developed models and predictions of occupancy under current conditions, using six climate variables at 800m resolution. We used the same climate variables predicted for 2080 under standard Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5.

A full project report with information about the statistical methods, model paramaterization and model validation can be found here.


Figure 2. Climate change refugia conservation cycle (from Morelli et al. 2016)


Results

Below are interactive maps of putative climate change refugia for species, generated through the SCS Project, DSL Project, and based on the tree data of Duveneck and Thompson (2017). There are also static maps showing current and future probability of occupancy as predicted by the SCS species distribution models across much of Maine.

Please note: Although the interactive maps are restricted to the Downeast Maine coastal area, data layers for all of Maine are available upon request [data link coming soon]. More information about the DSL project, and climate change refugia data for these, and additional species can be accessed here.


Interactive Tree Refugia Maps

Red Spruce

Balsam Fir

Paper Birch

Northern White Cedar


Interactive DSL Refugia Maps

Common Loon

Moose

Ruffed Grouse

Virginia Rail


Static maps

The following maps show the probability of occupancy across Maine for focal species modeled with the SCS project.











The following figure shows landscape capability for Bicknell’s Thrush in 2080 under an average of RCP 4.5 & 8.5. These data were provided by the Designing Sustainable Landscapes project.



Who we are

This project is funded through the Second Century Stewardship research fellowship, and the U.S. Geological Survey. The work is a collaboration between Jennifer Smetzer, Second Century Stewardhip Fellow, and Toni Lyn Morelli, Research Ecologist with the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center and USGS.





Citations

  1. Rawlins, M. A., R. S. Bradley, and H. F. Diaz. 2012. Assessment of regional climate model simulation estimates over the northeast United States. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 117: D23112.↩

  2. Gonzalez, P. 2014. Climate change trends and vulnerabilities in Acadia National Park, Maine.↩

  3. Maher, S., T. Morelli, M. Hershey, A. Flint, L. Flint, C. Moritz, and S. Beissinger 2017. Erosion of refugia in the Sierra Nevada meadows network with climate change. Ecosphere 8:1–17. doi: 10.1002/ecs2.1673↩

  4. Morelli, T. L., C. Daly, S. Z. Dobrowski, D. M. Dulen, J. L. Ebersole, S. T. Jackson, J. D. Lundquist et al. 2016. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation. PLoS ONE 11: e0159909.↩

  5. Ashcroft M. B. 2010. Identifying refugia from climate change. Journal of Biogeography 37:1407–13. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2699.2010.02300.x↩

  6. Dobrowski, S. Z. 2011. A climatic basis for microrefugia: The influence of terrain on climate. Global Change Biology 17:1022–35. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2486.2010.02263.x↩

  7. Morelli, T. L., C. Daly, S. Z. Dobrowski, D. M. Dulen, J. L. Ebersole, S. T. Jackson, J. D. Lundquist et al. 2016. Managing climate change refugia for climate adaptation. PLoS ONE 11: e0159909.↩

  8. Meadow, A. M., D. B. Ferguson, Z. Guido, A. Horangic, G. Owen, and T. Wall. 2015. Moving toward the deliberate coproduction of climate science knowledge. Weather, Climate, and Society 7: 179–191. doi:10.1175/WCAS-D-14-00050.1.↩

  9. Wall, T. U., A. M. Meadow, and a. Horganic. 2017. Developing Evaluation Indicators to Improve the Process of Coproducing Usable Climate Science. Climate, Science, and Society 9: 95-107. DOI: 10.1175/WCAS-D-16-0008.1↩

  10. Duveneck, M. J., and J. R. Thompson. 2017. Climate change imposes phenological trade-offs on forest net primary productivity. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 122:1-16↩

  11. McGarigal K., B. W. Compton, E. B. Plunkett, W.V. Deluca, and J. Grand (2017). Designing sustainable landscapes: project overview. Report to the North Atlantic Conservation Cooperative, US Fish and Wildlife Service, Northeast Region.↩

  12. Elith, J., & J.R. Leathwick. 2009. Species Distribution Models: Ecological Explanation and Prediction Across Space and Time. Annual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics 40: 677-697.↩