Introduction Calculations

Demand for beef alone is forecast to rise 61.25% by 2050, with the greatest growth in developing countries. Growth in high-income countries is 26.631425% and in all other countries (which we categorize as developing ones) is 82.2323756

Chapter 1 Calculations

Global Pasture Area Has Peaked

  • The decline of 73.7 is equivalent to 32% of the change in pasture from 1961 to 2000.

  • The 30-year rate of pasture change for Australia (from 1985 to 2014) was -0.576353%. The 2014-2015 rate of decline however was -11.0053432%. This is about 19.09 times the 30 year rate.

Peak Pasture Is a World-Wide Trend

  • Pasture area was flat or declining in 68% of countries between 2000 and 2016.

  • Overall, pasture area in 67 countries (33% of countries in the dataset today) is now below where it was in 1961

  • Altogether, since 2000, pasture area has contracted in 29 countries that saw pasture increase from 1961-2000. In other words, 33% countries that saw pasture increased 1961-2000 saw it subsequently decrease.

  • Following table shows countries where pasture increased the most with their pasture change from 2000 to 2016

Countries in Descending Order by Pasture Change from 2000-2016
country 2000 2016 change_00_16
United States of America 236331000 251000000 14669000
Argentina 99870000 108500000 8630000
Niger 23000000 28782000 5782000
Algeria 31829000 32942600 1113600
Chile 13000000 14015000 1015000

Peak Pasture Holds Positive Environmental Potential

  • In the 25 years between 1990 and 2015, the area of forest in Europe, a region that has experienced some of the most significant declines in pasture, has increased by about 12.46 million hectares (or 7.7588041%).

Productivity Gains Key to Peak Pasture

  • Between 2000 and 2013, aggregate production of meat and milk from cattle, buffaol, goats and sheep—the most common grazing animals—rose by 13.4495301% and by 32.4825967%, respectively.

  • Cattle, the most dominant user of pasture globally, saw meat and milk yields grow 28.79% and 21.95% since 1961.

  • For instance, beef yields in Africa, Brazil, and China are all substantially lower than in higher-income Australia— 40%, 12% and 46 % less, respectively.

  • Globally, the number of cattle stocks per hectare has increased 57% since 1961

  • In 2013, approximately 142% and 141% more cattle meat and dairy was produced for each hectare of pasture than in 1961.

  • If the efficiency of the global cattle system was the same in 2016 as it was in 1961, about 4.1 billion more hectares of pasture would be required to support the same level of production.