How does Campaign Funding Influence Approval Rating and Social Media Presence?

Code:

demCandidates <- read_html(“https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries”)

candidates <- html_nodes(demCandidates, “table”)

candidate_table <- demCandidates %>% html_nodes(“table”) %>% .[6] %>% html_table(fill = TRUE) as.data.frame(candidate_table) -> candidate_table

(The rest of the data was taken from excel and imported in, therefore didn’t need coding directly in R)

Code:

create_token( app = “Grace Twitter Spring 2019”, consumer_key = “AZphzriCUT1rp9R2YYCjXpsAr”, consumer_secret = “j6Sv1GDOBSzkdHCEQqU7nCK7jDxff5DHOmEE1HxeWrxCWaMYVu”, access_token = “3386692228-bDwkVLT7e8aHydnjCoxCn7x6Euy2mrMPKRtMvnX”, access_secret = “VJNcn7cFLwJsTxkgmaVZkAkKLA0jZCH3KmwY0oBknNhoh”)

rt <- search_tweets( “#rstats”, n = 3000, retryonratelimit = TRUE )

get_followers(“JoeBiden”) -> joefollow joefollow$n <- c(1:5000)

get_timeline(“JoeBiden”, n=5000) -> jb

jb_favorite <- jb %>% select(created_at, favorite_count) %>% filter((created_at>= as.Date(“2019-04-29”))) jb_favorite <- jb %>% select(created_at, favorite_count) %>% filter((created_at>= as.Date(“2019-04-29”)))

jb_plot <- ggplot(jb_favorite, aes(created_at, favorite_count)) + geom_line() + xlab(“Date of Tweet Creation”) + ylab(“Likes on Tweets”) + ggtitle(“Likes on Tweets in May for Joe Biden”) + theme_minimal() + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5)) + geom_vline(xintercept = as.numeric(jb_favorite$created_at[56]), linetype = “dashed”, color = “red”)

Social Media (Twitter) Presence

The next part of this process of candidate success is also observing social media presence. The graph below pertains to who has the most followers on Twitter right now. Many of these candidates with lots of followers, particularly Bernie Sanders, Cory Booker, and Joe Biden have had previous follower bases from their past positions. One that is particularly impressive is Marianne Williamson, who served as an inspirational speaker before beginning her campaign, and therefore has name recognition.

ggplot(followers, aes(Candidate, Twitter_Followers, fill=blue)) + geom_col() + ylab(“Followers”) + ggtitle(“Followers on Twitter”) + theme_minimal()+ theme(legend.position = “none”) + theme(axis.text.x = element_text(angle = 45, hjust = 1)) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

Money raised against Twitter followers

The next trend is money raised by candidates versus their Twitter following. This has a stronger correlation at 0.2165795. Part of this may be due to more money is more staff and more people to run social media and make graphics. Social media is also free, meaning that it doesn’t cost money but a bigger team can do more with it. Andrew Yang, for example, doesn’t have as much money raised (nearly as much) as Bernie Sanders, yet, he has ample Twitter followers.

contributions_followers <- merge(total_contributions, followers, by=(“Candidate”)) contributions_followers\(Start_Date = NULL contributions_followers\)End_Date = NULL ggplot(contributions_followers, aes(Total_Contributions_Earning, Twitter_Followers)) + geom_point(aes(color = Candidate)) + theme_minimal() + ylab(“Twitter Followers”) + xlab(“Money Rasied”) + ggtitle(“Money Raised v. Twitter Followers”) + theme(plot.title = element_text(hjust = 0.5))

Individual candidate Twitter likes

Now that the basic Twitter profile of each candidate has been surveyed, their fanbase loyalty, or amount of current likes on posts will be put to the test. Below are Marianne Williamson’s Twitter likes since the start of May. The post with the most likes within her opinions towards the new head of Department of Defense, Patrick Shanahan. She brings up questions about his special interest and qualifications. This also shows that although she has a fanbase, they may not be active. She gets less than 1k likes on most recent tweets.

mw_plot + geom_text(x = (as.numeric(mw_favorite$created_at[25])), y = 1500, label = “Department of Defense”)

A very common extremely popular Tweet for candidates was the appointment of the new Attorney General, Barr. Elizabeth Warren was just one of many to call him out for suppressing the findings of the Mueller report, which exposed Trump in a negative way as a president. As a dramatic political event, it’s important that presidential candidates address their viewpoints so that voters can see whether or not they agree.

ew_plot + geom_text(x = (as.numeric(ew_favorite$created_at[95])), y = 100000, label = “AG Barr”) <- Coding continues as the same for each candidate after.

Along the same lines as Elizabeth Warren, Seth Moulton went ahead and compared Elliott Richardson to William Barr the new Attorney General, also taking a firm side against him. Again, the very politically charged and poignant Tweets get the most fanbase traction, especially with a newly appointment AG.

Kamala Harris was the third candidate to tweet and receive the most likes as of recently about her opinions towards AG Barr. She is blunt and literally says that he should resign now. This proves that her fanbase is looking for honesty and a politician that doesn’t sugarcoat things. Compared to other posts, they are also relatively active, but nothing nearly as huge as this post.

Kristen Gillibrand was the fourth candidate to have the highest number of recent likes on her tweet calling AG Barr to resign. This was also in a period of getting 1k likes max, where almost 25k of her followers liked this post. This shows once again the power of being opinionated especially after a big appointment. She has a strong social media presence as a Senator, but definitely not as strong as some of the bigger candidates.

Eric Swalwell called Donald Trump out on his most liked Tweet, proving once again that people liked politically charged Tweets.

Tim Ryan tweeted about workers losing their job and as a Democratic candidate took the side of middle-class America. Siding with millions of struggling Americans is bound to also get him more traction and more likes on his tweet. The attached video is him speaking in Congress, and this is also a pinned Tweet on his profile, making it extremely popular. This tweet alone gained a ton of traction in the midst of very few likes. Tim Ryan also doesn’t get the same quantity of likes as some other candidates with previous positions or fame, but still reaps hundreds of likes from followers.

Wayne Messam took a firm stance against Florida legislation for allowing guns in classrooms by backing up Robert Runcie’s decision against them. Gun control is also a very big issue right now with prevalent school shootings, so with fiery topics, candidates are getting the most likes. Wayne Messam is also getting 35 likes as a high amount, so it’s not even in the same league as other candidates.

While many candidates have taken a stance against, Jay Inslee’s most liked Tweet recently was about Pence calling him out on his hypocrisy. One function of the media is to serve as a watchdog on politicians, and in this case it’s other politicians. Twitter users, according to these Tweets, appreciate politicians running for office who can call out others on what’s right and wrong. They are looking for transparency and reassurance. Jay Inslee also got an enormous amount of likes on this post compared to others, showing that his fanbase isn’t very active.

Tulsi Gabbard’s most liked recent Tweet was a campaign video against war, which I found very interesting. She chose a prominent theme in today’s society and in many ways called out Trump for his foreign policy. It wasn’t surprising that it got many likes because it was a well-made video. Her followers also do tend to be pretty active, despite having less than other candidates. This shows her traction and her more loyal fanbase.

In two of Delaney’s most liked recent Tweets he calls Trump out. The first is with foreign corruption, and the second it with business losses in his federal income-tax returns. Both of them serve as a way to expose the president, also revealing that Delaney wants to be transparent, honest, and trustworthy. He still has very few followers + likes, but it does show a more loyal, although small fanbase.

Julian Castro actually thanked another candidate running in his most recent and most liked post. Elizabeth Warren gave him a shout out about immigration and as a Senator, he praised her for her policies. I thought it was interesting their mutual endorsement and that people tend to like candidates that show admiration to others. Castro also had a few others spikes in likes on other posts, showing his more loyal fanbase.

Mayor Pete received the highest amounts of likes recently when talking about his meeting with President Carter and how much it humbled him, and siding with women when talking about women’s healthcare issues. Both of these posts garnered a population of older voters who probably voted Carter into office, and after seeing Mayor Pete meet with him, begin to pay more attention to him. Also, there are EXTREMELY few male female healthcare advocates, so posting on Twitter about women’s rights is a gigantic topic. Overall, Mayor Pete has been on the cover of time magazine, and has gained lots of traction from his sexual identity as a veteran. It isn’t a surprise that he has a well-developed social media presence.

Cory Booker, New Jersey Senator called out John Kelley for his recent joining of the Caliburn International Board after serving as White House Chief of Staff. Yet one more reason why people appreciate transparency in Tweets. With his position already in politics, Booker already has fanbase participation in his tweets as well.

With a platform dedicated to socialism, Bernie Sanders is all about combatting capitalism inequalities. After running for president in 2016, he also has an extremely loyal fanbase and he’s a front runner in polls. Despite his old age, Sanders is definitely in the running and his social media with 50K likes on this post reflects that too.

Amy Klobuchar’s most liked Tweets advocate for Hillary Clinton as the 2016 presidential candidate, urging Americans to move forward and not stand with Russia. Along with that, a day later she received ample likes for posting about AG Barr being shady about the findings within the Mueller report. Once again, Klobuchar already serves a position of office and is advocating for other Democrats, along with the faults of Republicans in office. Her fanbase is also relatively large, slightly active, and more active since these posts.

Andrew Yang’s platform is largely focused on a higher average minimum wage, and a post this simple is also so relatable and so it’s no wonder he has received so many likes. It’s something that has been retweete thousands of times, and has created a moment for people to share it with their friends. Finally, a candidate who understands the high prices of today and wants to help people in the fight. Yang’s social media is also extremely active – despite not having the highest ratings in polls, he has excelled in likes and a loyal fanbase.

For Joe’s most liked recent tweet, he backs up labor unions and the middle working class. This kind of support is extremely necessary for polling. Joe also has the Vice Presidency social media following under his belt making his Twitter very strong.