Terrorism Risk Assessment
Kyaw Thu
3-5-2019
Objective of the Study
Security need become essential the people as the risk are escalating today.
The study includes:
- to explore the attacks or incidents in Myanmar
- the APAC neighbours comparison
- the anlaysis of prepetary groups
- the area or the city being attacked
- the weapon type and method did they used
Global Terrorism Risk Assessment Start
Incidents in Selected Countries
Terrorism Risk in Myanmar
According to the data, 582 incidents happened in Myanmar. Most of the incidents are related to the local conflicts between the ethnic armed groups such as KIA ,AA, ARSA, KDBA, TNLA and army (“Myanmar Tatmadaw”). Some incidents are connected to the neighbouring countries.
Incidents spread
# A tibble: 1 x 7
format width height colorspace matte filesize density
<chr> <int> <int> <chr> <lgl> <int> <chr>
1 PNG 1500 942 sRGB TRUE 80227 57x57
Attack Type
The Cities being Attacked Zoom Out
The Cities being Attacked Zoom In
Perpetrators
PERPETRATOR.1
1 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
2 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
3 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
4 Unknown
5 Unknown
6 Jihadi-inspired extremists
7 Unknown
8 Unknown
9 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
10 Hasam Movement
11 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
12 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
13 Unknown
14 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
15 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
16 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
17 Unknown
18 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
19 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
20 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
21 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
22 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
23 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
24 Unknown
25 Rohingya extremists
26 Unknown
27 Unknown
28 Unknown
29 Unknown
30 Unknown
31 Unknown
32 Unknown
33 Unknown
34 Muslim extremists
35 Muslim extremists
36 Muslim extremists
37 Muslim extremists
38 Unknown
39 Unknown
40 Unknown
41 Unknown
42 Unknown
43 Unknown
44 Unknown
45 Unknown
46 Unknown
47 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
48 Unknown
49 Rohingya extremists
50 Unknown
51 Unknown
52 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
53 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
54 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
55 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
56 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
57 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
58 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
59 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
60 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
61 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
62 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
63 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
64 Unknown
65 Unknown
66 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
67 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
68 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
69 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
70 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
71 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
72 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
73 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
74 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
75 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
76 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
77 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
78 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
79 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
80 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
81 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
82 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
83 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
84 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
85 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
86 Unknown
87 Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA)
88 Muslim extremists
89 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
90 Unknown
91 Unknown
92 Rohingya extremists
93 Unknown
94 Unknown
95 Unknown
96 Muslim extremists
97 Unknown
98 Unknown
99 Unknown
100 Unknown
101 Unknown
102 Unknown
103 Unknown
104 Unknown
105 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
106 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
107 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
108 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
109 Unknown
110 Unknown
111 Unknown
112 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
113 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
114 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
115 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
116 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
117 Unknown
118 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
119 Unknown
120 Unknown
121 Unknown
122 Rohingya extremists
123 Rohingya extremists
124 Rohingya extremists
125 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
126 Unknown
127 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
128 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
129 Unknown
130 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
131 Muslim extremists
132 Muslim extremists
133 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
134 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
135 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
136 Unknown
137 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
138 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
139 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
140 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
141 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
142 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
143 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
144 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
145 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
146 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
147 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
148 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
149 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
150 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
151 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
152 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
153 Muslim extremists
154 Muslim extremists
155 Muslim extremists
156 Unknown
157 Rohingya extremists
158 Rohingya extremists
159 Rohingya extremists
160 Rohingya extremists
161 Rohingya extremists
162 Rohingya extremists
163 Rohingya extremists
164 Rohingya extremists
165 Rohingya extremists
166 Rohingya extremists
167 Rohingya extremists
168 Rohingya extremists
169 Unknown
170 Unknown
171 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
172 Unknown
173 Unknown
174 Unknown
175 Muslim extremists
176 Al-Yakin Mujahidin
177 Al-Yakin Mujahidin
178 Al-Yakin Mujahidin
179 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
180 Unknown
181 Unknown
182 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
183 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
184 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
185 Unknown
186 Separatists
187 Unknown
188 Unknown
189 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
190 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
191 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
192 Unknown
193 Unknown
194 Unknown
195 Unknown
196 Unknown
197 Unknown
198 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
199 Arakan Army (AA)
200 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
201 Unknown
202 Unknown
203 Unknown
204 Unknown
205 Shan State Army - North (SSA-N)
206 Shan State Army - North (SSA-N)
207 Unknown
208 Shan State Army - North (SSA-N)
209 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
210 Unknown
211 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
212 Separatists
213 Unknown
214 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
215 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
216 Unknown
217 Unknown
218 Unknown
219 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
220 Unknown
221 Unknown
222 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
223 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
224 Unknown
225 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
226 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
227 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
228 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
229 Unknown
230 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
231 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
232 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
233 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
234 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
235 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
236 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
237 Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA)
238 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
239 Unknown
240 Unknown
241 Unknown
242 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
243 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
244 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
245 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
246 Student Network of Mandalay
247 Rohingya Solidarity Organization
248 Unknown
249 Unknown
250 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
251 Unknown
252 Unknown
253 National Democratic Alliance Army (NDAA-ESSA)
254 Unknown
255 Karen National Union
256 Unknown
257 Karen National Union
258 Karen National Union
259 Karen National Union
260 Karen National Union
261 Karen National Union
262 Karen National Union
263 Karen National Union
264 Karen National Union
265 Unknown
266 Muslim extremists
267 Unknown
268 Unknown
269 Unknown
270 Indian Mujahideen
271 Indian Mujahideen
272 Indian Mujahideen
273 Indian Mujahideen
274 Indian Mujahideen
275 Shan State Army - South (SSA-S)
276 Unknown
277 People's Liberation Army (India)
278 United National Liberation Front (UNLF)
279 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
280 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
281 Unknown
282 Unknown
283 Rohingya Solidarity Organization
284 United National Liberation Front (UNLF)
285 Unknown
286 Unknown
287 Unknown
288 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
289 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
290 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
291 Unknown
292 Unknown
293 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
294 Unknown
295 Unknown
296 Unknown
297 Unknown
298 Unknown
299 Unknown
300 Unknown
301 Unknown
302 Karen National Union
303 Unknown
304 Unknown
305 Unknown
306 Karen National Union
307 Karen National Union
308 Karen National Union
309 National League for Democracy
310 Unknown
311 Unknown
312 Karen National Union
313 Karen National Union
314 Unknown
315 0
316 0
317 0
318 Kokang
319 0
320 Unknown
321 United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA)
322 All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF)
323 All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF)
324 All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF)
325 All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF)
326 Unknown
327 Unknown
328 Karen National Union
329 National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K)
330 Unknown
331 1
332 Unknown
333 Unknown
334 Karen National Union
335 Unknown
336 Unknown
337 Unknown
338 Unknown
339 Karen National Union
340 Karen National Union
341 Unknown
342 Unknown
343 Shan State Army - South (SSA-S)
344 Unknown
345 Unknown
346 Shan State Army - South (SSA-S)
347 Unknown
348 Unknown
349 Unknown
350 Unknown
351 Unknown
352 Karen National Union
353 Unknown
354 Barisan Revolusi Nasional (BRN)
355 Unknown
356 Unknown
357 Unknown
358 Unknown
359 Thai Islamic Militants
360 Karen National Union
361 Karen National Union
362 Karen National Union
363 Unknown
364 Karen National Union
365 Unknown
366 Unknown
367 Vigorous Burmese Student Warriors
368 Unknown
369 United National Liberation Front (UNLF)
370 Unknown
371 Shan United Revolutionary Army
372 Shan United Revolutionary Army
373 Shan United Revolutionary Army
374 Shan United Revolutionary Army
375 Karen National Union
376 Unknown
377 Unknown
378 Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL)
379 Shan United Revolutionary Army
380 Karen National Union
381 Karen National Union
382 Chin National Army
383 Karen National Union
384 Karenni National Progressive Party
385 Unknown
386 Karen National Union
387 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
388 Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL)
389 Unknown
390 Vigorous Burmese Student Warriors
391 Karen National Union
392 Unknown
393 Karen National Union
394 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
395 Unknown
396 Karen National Union
397 Unknown
398 Unknown
399 Buddhist Monks
400 Buddhist Monks
401 Buddhist Monks
402 Buddhist Monks
403 Buddhist Monks
404 Buddhist Monks
405 Buddhist Monks
406 Buddhist Monks
407 Buddhist Monks
408 Buddhist Monks
409 Buddhist Monks
410 Buddhist Monks
411 Buddhist Monks
412 Buddhist Monks
413 Buddhist Monks
414 Buddhist Monks
415 Buddhist Monks
416 Buddhist Monks
417 Buddhist Monks
418 Buddhist Monks
419 Buddhist Monks
420 Buddhist Monks
421 Buddhist Monks
422 Buddhist Monks
423 Buddhist Monks
424 Buddhist Monks
425 Buddhist Monks
426 Buddhist Monks
427 Buddhist Monks
428 Buddhist Monks
429 Buddhist Monks
430 Unknown
431 Unknown
432 Unknown
433 Unknown
434 Karen National Union
435 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
436 Unknown
437 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
438 Karen Insurgents
439 Karen National Union
440 Democratic Karen Buddhist Army (DKBA)
441 Karen National Union
442 Karen National Union
443 Karen National Union
444 United Wa State Army
445 Unknown
446 Mong Thai Army (MTA)
447 Khun Sa Guerrillas
448 Khun Sa Guerrillas
449 Khun Sa Guerrillas
450 Khun Sa Guerrillas
451 Khun Sa Guerrillas
452 Burmese Minority Group Pirates
453 Karen National Union
454 Karen National Union
455 Karen National Union
456 Karen Insurgents
457 Mon Guerrillas
458 Karen Insurgents
459 Karen Insurgents
460 Karen National Union
461 Karen Insurgents
462 Karen Insurgents
463 Karen National Union
464 Naga People
465 Naga People
466 Karen National Union
467 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
468 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
469 Unknown
470 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
471 Karen National Union
472 Karen Insurgents
473 Karenni National Progressive Party
474 Karen National Union
475 Unknown
476 Arakan Rohingy Islamic Front
477 Karen National Union
478 Karen National Union
479 All Burma Students' Democratic Front (ABSDF)
480 Karen Insurgents
481 Unknown
482 Karen National Union
483 Karen National Union
484 Karenni National Progressive Party
485 Karen Insurgents
486 Karen National Union
487 Karen National Union
488 Karen National Union
489 Karen National Union
490 Karen National Union
491 Mong Thai Army (MTA)
492 Unknown
493 Karen National Union
494 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
495 Karen National Union
496 Unknown
497 Karen Insurgents
498 Kachin Insurgents
499 Karen National Union
500 Mon Guerrillas
501 Karen National Union
502 Mon Guerrillas
503 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
504 Karen National Union
505 Karen Insurgents
506 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
507 Unknown
508 Unknown
509 Karen Insurgents
510 Unknown
511 National League for Democracy
512 Karen National Union
513 Mon Insurgents
514 Karen National Union
515 Karen National Union
516 Kachin Insurgents
517 Shan State Army - North (SSA-N)
518 Karen National Union
519 Karen National Union
520 Burma Communist Party
521 Karen National Union
522 Karen National Union
523 Karen National Union
524 Karen National Union
525 Karen National Union
526 Karen National Union
527 Karen National Union
528 Karen National Union
529 Mon Insurgents
530 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
531 Mon Guerrillas
532 Karen National Union
533 Karen National Union
534 Karen Insurgents
535 Karen Insurgents
536 Unknown
537 Burma Communist Party
538 Karen National Union
539 Karen National Union
540 Karen National Union
541 Karen National Union
542 Karen National Union
543 Karen National Union
544 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
545 Shan Insurgents
546 Unknown
547 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
548 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
549 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
550 Shan Insurgents
551 Kachin Independence Army (KIA)
552 Karen Insurgents
553 Unknown
554 Unknown
555 Karen Insurgents
556 North Korean involvement commandos
557 Mon Insurgents
558 Karen National Union
559 Karen Insurgents
560 Unknown
561 Shan State Progressive Party
562 Shan State Progressive Party
563 Karen National Union
564 Karen National Union
565 Shan State Progressive Party
566 People's Army (Myanmar)
567 Shan State Progressive Party
568 Shan State Progressive Party
569 Shan State Progressive Party
570 Shan State Progressive Party
571 Shan State Progressive Party
572 Shan State Progressive Party
573 People's Army (Myanmar)
574 People's Army (Myanmar)
575 People's Army (Myanmar)
576 People's Army (Myanmar)
577 Shan State Progressive Party
578 Shan State Progressive Party
579 People's Army (Myanmar)
580 Unknown
581 Unknown
582 Shan Insurgents
Perpetrator Plot
Summary Stat
GTD.ID DATE COUNTRY CITY
Min. :1.973e+11 2017-08-25: 35 Myanmar :546 Yangon : 56
1st Qu.:1.996e+11 2016-11-20: 19 India : 19 Unknown : 36
Median :2.012e+11 1997-03-22: 17 Thailand : 8 Mandalay: 17
Mean :2.006e+11 2017-08-27: 17 Bangladesh: 2 Maungdaw: 16
3rd Qu.:2.016e+11 1997-03-15: 11 China : 2 Myawadi : 11
Max. :2.017e+11 2016-11-12: 11 Indonesia : 2 Muse : 9
(Other) :472 (Other) : 3 (Other) :437
PERPETRATOR.1 GUNCERTAIN.1
Unknown :177 Min. :0.0000
Karen National Union : 83 1st Qu.:0.0000
Arakan Rohingya Salvation Army (ARSA) : 46 Median :0.0000
Kachin Independence Army (KIA) : 44 Mean :0.1014
Buddhist Monks : 31 3rd Qu.:0.0000
Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA): 29 Max. :1.0000
(Other) :172
PERPETRATOR.2 GUNCERTAIN.2 PERPETRATOR.3
0 :290 0 :328 Private Citizens & Property:130
1 : 74 Unknown: 64 Military : 68
3 : 46 1 : 42 Police : 62
2 : 32 2 : 33 Government (General) : 53
Unknown : 20 3 : 23 Business : 51
Arakan Army (AA): 15 4 : 17 Transportation : 50
(Other) :105 (Other): 75 (Other) :168
GUNCERTAIN.3 FATALITIES
Southeast Asia :496 Bombing/Explosion :265
0 : 28 Armed Assault : 99
Private Citizens & Property: 16 Unknown : 56
South Asia : 13 Hostage Taking (Kidnapping) : 38
Business : 8 Facility/Infrastructure Attack: 37
1 : 4 Southeast Asia : 27
(Other) : 17 (Other) : 60
INJURED TARGET.TYPE.1
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite:230 :444
Firearms :110 Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite: 56
Unknown : 75 Bombing/Explosion : 16
Armed Assault : 40 Firearms : 16
Incendiary : 38 Melee : 11
Melee : 20 Unknown : 8
(Other) : 69 (Other) : 31
TARGET.TYPE.2 TARGET.TYPE.3
:490 :519
Firearms : 38 Melee : 28
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite: 18 Armed Assault : 9
Southeast Asia : 16 Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite: 6
Armed Assault : 4 Firearms : 5
Incendiary : 4 Southeast Asia : 5
(Other) : 12 (Other) : 10
REGION ATTACK.TYPE.1
:551 :571
Firearms : 12 Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite: 5
Explosives/Bombs/Dynamite: 5 Firearms : 3
Bombing/Explosion : 3 Melee : 3
Incendiary : 3
Armed Assault : 2
(Other) : 6
ATTACK.TYPE.2 ATTACK.TYPE.3 WEAPON.TYPE.1 WEAPON.TYPE.2
:580 Mode:logical Mode:logical Mode:logical
Firearms: 1 NA's:582 NA's:582 NA's:582
Unknown : 1
WEAPON.TYPE.3 WEAPON.TYPE.4
Mode:logical Mode:logical
NA's:582 NA's:582
Terrorism Ring in Asia Pacific
# A tibble: 1 x 7
format width height colorspace matte filesize density
<chr> <int> <int> <chr> <lgl> <int> <chr>
1 JPEG 1628 1180 sRGB FALSE 405412 72x72
Findings
According to the global terror threat data, the incident found 5276 in the end of Apr 2018, among them, there are 1392 attacks in Asia Pacific Region. It shows that the IS inpired terrorism is growing and spreading towards the Asia.
Comment and Suggestion
Homeland security become priority for the country as the situation is moving towards the worst case scenario such as increasing records of border crisis, terrorist attacks, accidents, and diasasters. Data analysis, risk assessments, and prediction are necessary to prevent the controllable risk for the sake of people.
References
- the database record from GTD
http://apps.start.umd.edu/gtd/downloads/.