Data Analysis Presentation
Braden Baker
5/4/2019
Issue Description
Describe the general area or issue you want to investigate in your data analysis project.
I want to investigate the passing statistics of the Seattle Seahawks during the 2018-2019 season.
Questions
Define at least two specific questions you would like to attempt to answer.
What are the best passing conditions for Russell Wilson?
Which receivers were the most effective during the season?
Description of the Data
Use the tools in R such as str() and summary() to describe the original dataset you imported.
This is a very large NFL dataset that is already cleaned. It contains variables of offensive, defensive, and special teams plays. The data is mostly made up of integers and character data types. The data came from a web scrape that was included in the package. I have it commented here because it takes too long to be completed on Rstudio Cloud, so I have loaded the data I downloaded here.
## Classes 'tbl_df', 'tbl' and 'data.frame': 2789 obs. of 256 variables:
## $ play_id : chr "36" "51" "73" "105" ...
## $ game_id : chr "2018090911" "2018090911" "2018090911" "2018090911" ...
## $ home_team : chr "DEN" "DEN" "DEN" "DEN" ...
## $ away_team : chr "SEA" "SEA" "SEA" "SEA" ...
## $ posteam : chr "DEN" "DEN" "DEN" "DEN" ...
## $ posteam_type : chr "home" "home" "home" "home" ...
## $ defteam : chr "SEA" "SEA" "SEA" "SEA" ...
## $ side_of_field : chr "SEA" "DEN" "DEN" "DEN" ...
## $ yardline_100 : num 35 75 75 79 79 65 65 61 61 84 ...
## $ game_date : Date, format: "2018-09-09" "2018-09-09" ...
## $ quarter_seconds_remaining : num 900 900 897 865 857 831 790 748 743 731 ...
## $ half_seconds_remaining : num 1800 1800 1797 1765 1757 ...
## $ game_seconds_remaining : num 3600 3600 3597 3565 3557 ...
## $ game_half : chr "Half1" "Half1" "Half1" "Half1" ...
## $ quarter_end : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ drive : int 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 ...
## $ sp : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ qtr : num 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ down : Factor w/ 4 levels "1","2","3","4": NA 1 2 2 3 1 2 3 4 1 ...
## $ goal_to_go : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ time : chr "15:00" "15:00" "14:57" "14:25" ...
## $ yrdln : chr "SEA 35" "DEN 25" "DEN 25" "DEN 21" ...
## $ ydstogo : num 0 10 10 14 14 10 10 6 6 10 ...
## $ ydsnet : num 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 4 ...
## $ desc : chr "S.Janikowski kicks 65 yards from SEA 35 to end zone, Touchback." "(15:00) (Shotgun) C.Keenum pass incomplete short left to De.Thomas." "(14:57) R.Freeman left end pushed ob at DEN 37 for 12 yards (T.Flowers). PENALTY on DEN-De.Thomas, Offensive Ho"| __truncated__ "(14:25) (Shotgun) C.Keenum pass incomplete short middle to De.Thomas (E.Thomas) [J.Reed]." ...
## $ play_type : chr "kickoff" "pass" "run" "pass" ...
## $ yards_gained : num 0 0 6 0 14 0 4 0 0 -6 ...
## $ shotgun : num 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 0 ...
## $ no_huddle : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ qb_dropback : num 0 1 0 1 1 0 0 1 0 1 ...
## $ qb_kneel : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ qb_spike : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ qb_scramble : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ pass_length : chr NA "short" NA "short" ...
## $ pass_location : chr NA "left" NA "middle" ...
## $ air_yards : num NA 9 NA 9 14 NA NA 16 NA NA ...
## $ yards_after_catch : num NA NA NA NA 0 NA NA NA NA NA ...
## $ run_location : chr NA NA "left" NA ...
## $ run_gap : chr NA NA "end" NA ...
## $ field_goal_result : chr NA NA NA NA ...
## $ kick_distance : num NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA 45 NA ...
## $ extra_point_result : chr NA NA NA NA ...
## $ two_point_conv_result : chr NA NA NA NA ...
## $ home_timeouts_remaining : num 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ...
## $ away_timeouts_remaining : num 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ...
## $ timeout : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ timeout_team : chr NA NA NA NA ...
## $ td_team : chr NA NA NA NA ...
## $ posteam_timeouts_remaining : num 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ...
## $ defteam_timeouts_remaining : num 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 ...
## $ total_home_score : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ total_away_score : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ posteam_score : num NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ defteam_score : num NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ score_differential : num NA 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ posteam_score_post : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ defteam_score_post : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ score_differential_post : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ no_score_prob : num 0.00137 0.00137 0.00142 0.00171 0.00169 ...
## $ opp_fg_prob : num 0.163 0.163 0.189 0.207 0.246 ...
## $ opp_safety_prob : num 0.00444 0.00444 0.0057 0.00802 0.0086 ...
## $ opp_td_prob : num 0.254 0.254 0.296 0.326 0.381 ...
## $ fg_prob : num 0.233 0.233 0.213 0.195 0.151 ...
## $ safety_prob : num 0.00366 0.00366 0.00399 0.00391 0.00459 ...
## $ td_prob : num 0.341 0.341 0.292 0.258 0.207 ...
## $ extra_point_prob : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ two_point_conversion_prob : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ ep : num 0.815 0.815 0.0433 -0.5174 -1.5147 ...
## $ epa : num 0 -0.772 -0.561 -0.997 3.28 ...
## $ total_home_epa : num 0 -0.772 -1.332 -2.33 0.95 ...
## $ total_away_epa : num 0 0.772 1.332 2.33 -0.95 ...
## $ total_home_rush_epa : num 0 0 -0.561 -0.561 -0.561 ...
## $ total_away_rush_epa : num 0 0 0.561 0.561 0.561 ...
## $ total_home_pass_epa : num 0 -0.772 -0.772 -1.769 1.511 ...
## $ total_away_pass_epa : num 0 0.772 0.772 1.769 -1.511 ...
## $ air_epa : num NA 0.115 NA -0.152 3.28 ...
## $ yac_epa : num NA -0.886 NA -0.845 0 ...
## $ comp_air_epa : num 0 0 0 0 3.28 ...
## $ comp_yac_epa : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ total_home_comp_air_epa : num 0 0 0 0 3.28 ...
## $ total_away_comp_air_epa : num 0 0 0 0 -3.28 ...
## $ total_home_comp_yac_epa : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ total_away_comp_yac_epa : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ total_home_raw_air_epa : num 0 0.1145 0.1145 -0.0379 3.2421 ...
## $ total_away_raw_air_epa : num 0 -0.1145 -0.1145 0.0379 -3.2421 ...
## $ total_home_raw_yac_epa : num 0 -0.886 -0.886 -1.731 -1.731 ...
## $ total_away_raw_yac_epa : num 0 0.886 0.886 1.731 1.731 ...
## $ wp : num NA 0.5 0.478 0.463 0.434 ...
## $ def_wp : num NA 0.5 0.522 0.537 0.566 ...
## $ home_wp : num NA 0.5 0.478 0.463 0.434 ...
## $ away_wp : num NA 0.5 0.522 0.537 0.566 ...
## $ wpa : num NA -0.0223 -0.0144 -0.029 0.0981 ...
## $ home_wp_post : num NA 0.478 0.463 0.434 0.532 ...
## $ away_wp_post : num NA 0.522 0.537 0.566 0.468 ...
## $ total_home_rush_wpa : num 0 0 -0.0144 -0.0144 -0.0144 ...
## $ total_away_rush_wpa : num 0 0 0.0144 0.0144 0.0144 ...
## $ total_home_pass_wpa : num 0 -0.0223 -0.0223 -0.0513 0.0468 ...
## $ total_away_pass_wpa : num 0 0.0223 0.0223 0.0513 -0.0468 ...
## $ air_wpa : num NA 0.0037 NA -0.00412 0.09812 ...
## [list output truncated]
## play_id game_id home_team
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## away_team posteam posteam_type
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## defteam side_of_field yardline_100 game_date
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Min. : 1.0 Min. :2018-09-09
## Class :character Class :character 1st Qu.:31.0 1st Qu.:2018-09-30
## Mode :character Mode :character Median :53.0 Median :2018-11-11
## Mean :49.7 Mean :2018-11-05
## 3rd Qu.:70.0 3rd Qu.:2018-12-10
## Max. :99.0 Max. :2018-12-30
## NA's :88
## quarter_seconds_remaining half_seconds_remaining game_seconds_remaining
## Min. : 0 Min. : 0.0 Min. : 0
## 1st Qu.:143 1st Qu.: 283.0 1st Qu.: 758
## Median :394 Median : 784.0 Median :1800
## Mean :412 Mean : 798.3 Mean :1687
## 3rd Qu.:655 3rd Qu.:1262.0 3rd Qu.:2596
## Max. :900 Max. :1800.0 Max. :3600
##
## game_half quarter_end drive sp
## Length:2789 Min. :0.00000 Min. : 1.00 Min. :0.00000
## Class :character 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.: 6.00 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Mode :character Median :0.00000 Median :12.00 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0.01793 Mean :11.95 Mean :0.07816
## 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:17.00 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :1.00000 Max. :29.00 Max. :1.00000
##
## qtr down goal_to_go time
## Min. :1.000 1 :959 Min. :0.00000 Length:2789
## 1st Qu.:2.000 2 :699 1st Qu.:0.00000 Class :character
## Median :3.000 3 :428 Median :0.00000 Mode :character
## Mean :2.589 4 :238 Mean :0.05399
## 3rd Qu.:4.000 NA's:465 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :5.000 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85
## yrdln ydstogo ydsnet desc
## Length:2789 Min. : 0.000 Min. :-16.00 Length:2789
## Class :character 1st Qu.: 3.000 1st Qu.: 14.00 Class :character
## Mode :character Median : 9.000 Median : 44.00 Mode :character
## Mean : 7.203 Mean : 41.82
## 3rd Qu.:10.000 3rd Qu.: 70.00
## Max. :28.000 Max. : 99.00
##
## play_type yards_gained shotgun no_huddle
## Length:2789 Min. :-22.000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.00000
## Class :character 1st Qu.: 0.000 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Mode :character Median : 0.000 Median :0.0000 Median :0.00000
## Mean : 4.053 Mean :0.4704 Mean :0.05952
## 3rd Qu.: 6.000 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. : 75.000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.00000
##
## qb_dropback qb_kneel qb_spike qb_scramble
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.000000 Min. :0.000000 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.000000 1st Qu.:0.000000 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :0.0000 Median :0.000000 Median :0.000000 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0.4075 Mean :0.008605 Mean :0.003586 Mean :0.01829
## 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:0.000000 3rd Qu.:0.000000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.000000 Max. :1.000000 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85
## pass_length pass_location air_yards yards_after_catch
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Min. :-14.000 Min. :-2.000
## Class :character Class :character 1st Qu.: 1.000 1st Qu.: 1.000
## Mode :character Mode :character Median : 6.000 Median : 3.000
## Mean : 8.218 Mean : 5.576
## 3rd Qu.: 13.000 3rd Qu.: 8.000
## Max. : 53.000 Max. :55.000
## NA's :1816 NA's :2154
## run_location run_gap field_goal_result kick_distance
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Length:2789 Min. : 5.0
## Class :character Class :character Class :character 1st Qu.:33.0
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character Median :41.0
## Mean :42.6
## 3rd Qu.:52.0
## Max. :69.0
## NA's :2467
## extra_point_result two_point_conv_result home_timeouts_remaining
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Min. :0.000
## Class :character Class :character 1st Qu.:2.000
## Mode :character Mode :character Median :3.000
## Mean :2.519
## 3rd Qu.:3.000
## Max. :3.000
##
## away_timeouts_remaining timeout timeout_team
## Min. :0.000 Min. :0.00000 Length:2789
## 1st Qu.:2.000 1st Qu.:0.00000 Class :character
## Median :3.000 Median :0.00000 Mode :character
## Mean :2.356 Mean :0.05067
## 3rd Qu.:3.000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :3.000 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85
## td_team posteam_timeouts_remaining defteam_timeouts_remaining
## Length:2789 Min. :0.000 Min. :0.000
## Class :character 1st Qu.:2.000 1st Qu.:2.000
## Mode :character Median :3.000 Median :3.000
## Mean :2.433 Mean :2.469
## 3rd Qu.:3.000 3rd Qu.:3.000
## Max. :3.000 Max. :3.000
## NA's :85 NA's :85
## total_home_score total_away_score posteam_score defteam_score
## Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.00
## 1st Qu.: 3.00 1st Qu.: 3.00 1st Qu.: 3.00 1st Qu.: 3.00
## Median :10.00 Median :10.00 Median :10.00 Median :12.00
## Mean :12.53 Mean :11.46 Mean :11.09 Mean :12.56
## 3rd Qu.:20.00 3rd Qu.:19.00 3rd Qu.:17.00 3rd Qu.:20.00
## Max. :43.00 Max. :33.00 Max. :43.00 Max. :43.00
## NA's :101 NA's :101
## score_differential posteam_score_post defteam_score_post
## Min. :-27.000 Min. : 0.00 Min. : 0.00
## 1st Qu.: -7.000 1st Qu.: 3.00 1st Qu.: 3.00
## Median : 0.000 Median :10.00 Median :12.00
## Mean : -1.471 Mean :11.29 Mean :12.49
## 3rd Qu.: 3.000 3rd Qu.:17.00 3rd Qu.:20.00
## Max. : 27.000 Max. :43.00 Max. :43.00
## NA's :101 NA's :85 NA's :85
## score_differential_post no_score_prob opp_fg_prob
## Min. :-27.0 Min. :0.000000 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.: -7.0 1st Qu.:0.002649 1st Qu.:0.03031
## Median : 0.0 Median :0.021958 Median :0.07994
## Mean : -1.2 Mean :0.122888 Mean :0.09138
## 3rd Qu.: 3.0 3rd Qu.:0.172481 3rd Qu.:0.14685
## Max. : 27.0 Max. :1.000000 Max. :0.33882
## NA's :85 NA's :3 NA's :3
## opp_safety_prob opp_td_prob fg_prob safety_prob
## Min. :0.0000000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.000000
## 1st Qu.:0.0000825 1st Qu.:0.0355 1st Qu.:0.1486 1st Qu.:0.001627
## Median :0.0009118 Median :0.1184 Median :0.2331 Median :0.002929
## Mean :0.0023349 Mean :0.1349 Mean :0.2406 Mean :0.002563
## 3rd Qu.:0.0035427 3rd Qu.:0.2224 3rd Qu.:0.3216 3rd Qu.:0.003580
## Max. :0.0273442 Max. :0.4787 Max. :0.9944 Max. :0.014701
## NA's :3 NA's :3 NA's :3 NA's :3
## td_prob extra_point_prob two_point_conversion_prob
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.0000000
## 1st Qu.:0.1865 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.0000000
## Median :0.3189 Median :0.00000 Median :0.0000000
## Mean :0.2943 Mean :0.02668 Mean :0.0008489
## 3rd Qu.:0.4053 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.0000000
## Max. :0.9128 Max. :0.93111 Max. :0.4735000
## NA's :3
## ep epa total_home_epa total_away_epa
## Min. :-3.3742 Min. :-10.65723 Min. :-33.382 Min. :-32.792
## 1st Qu.: 0.7195 1st Qu.: -0.57572 1st Qu.: -3.041 1st Qu.: -6.700
## Median : 1.5172 Median : 0.00000 Median : 2.140 Median : -2.140
## Mean : 1.7435 Mean : 0.05768 Mean : 1.582 Mean : -1.582
## 3rd Qu.: 2.9832 3rd Qu.: 0.64863 3rd Qu.: 6.700 3rd Qu.: 3.041
## Max. : 6.5005 Max. : 6.08852 Max. : 32.792 Max. : 33.382
## NA's :88 NA's :99
## total_home_rush_epa total_away_rush_epa total_home_pass_epa
## Min. :-13.1907 Min. :-17.2721 Min. :-28.4560
## 1st Qu.: -2.7166 1st Qu.: -3.7000 1st Qu.: -3.8710
## Median : -0.3325 Median : 0.3325 Median : 1.7299
## Mean : 0.4882 Mean : -0.4882 Mean : 0.8198
## 3rd Qu.: 3.7000 3rd Qu.: 2.7166 3rd Qu.: 6.1023
## Max. : 17.2721 Max. : 13.1907 Max. : 21.9308
##
## total_away_pass_epa air_epa yac_epa
## Min. :-21.9308 Min. :-2.2388 Min. :-12.8230
## 1st Qu.: -6.1023 1st Qu.:-0.6119 1st Qu.: -0.4084
## Median : -1.7299 Median :-0.0046 Median : 0.0000
## Mean : -0.8198 Mean : 0.5532 Mean : -0.2795
## 3rd Qu.: 3.8710 3rd Qu.: 1.6407 3rd Qu.: 0.6764
## Max. : 28.4560 Max. : 6.0018 Max. : 4.6813
## NA's :1832 NA's :1835
## comp_air_epa comp_yac_epa total_home_comp_air_epa
## Min. :-2.23876 Min. :-1.6719 Min. :-30.40416
## 1st Qu.: 0.00000 1st Qu.: 0.0000 1st Qu.: -2.58292
## Median : 0.00000 Median : 0.0000 Median : 0.07306
## Mean : 0.06067 Mean : 0.1673 Mean : -1.12750
## 3rd Qu.: 0.00000 3rd Qu.: 0.0000 3rd Qu.: 2.79718
## Max. : 5.82613 Max. : 4.6813 Max. : 14.05753
## NA's :85 NA's :86
## total_away_comp_air_epa total_home_comp_yac_epa total_away_comp_yac_epa
## Min. :-14.05753 Min. :-18.2029 Min. :-28.6187
## 1st Qu.: -2.79718 1st Qu.: -1.8027 1st Qu.: -4.4016
## Median : -0.07306 Median : 0.1565 Median : -0.1565
## Mean : 1.12750 Mean : 1.1163 Mean : -1.1163
## 3rd Qu.: 2.58292 3rd Qu.: 4.4016 3rd Qu.: 1.8027
## Max. : 30.40416 Max. : 28.6187 Max. : 18.2029
##
## total_home_raw_air_epa total_away_raw_air_epa total_home_raw_yac_epa
## Min. :-31.88936 Min. :-21.30830 Min. :-22.6900
## 1st Qu.: -6.31610 1st Qu.: -5.00958 1st Qu.: -4.5381
## Median : -0.05072 Median : 0.05072 Median : 0.4473
## Mean : -1.30034 Mean : 1.30034 Mean : 1.2626
## 3rd Qu.: 5.00958 3rd Qu.: 6.31610 3rd Qu.: 7.2953
## Max. : 21.30830 Max. : 31.88936 Max. : 33.5155
##
## total_away_raw_yac_epa wp def_wp
## Min. :-33.5155 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.00016
## 1st Qu.: -7.2953 1st Qu.:0.3318 1st Qu.:0.32311
## Median : -0.4473 Median :0.5029 Median :0.49706
## Mean : -1.2626 Mean :0.5015 Mean :0.49850
## 3rd Qu.: 4.5381 3rd Qu.:0.6769 3rd Qu.:0.66816
## Max. : 22.6900 Max. :0.9998 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :104 NA's :104
## home_wp away_wp wpa home_wp_post
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :-0.324862 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.3943 1st Qu.:0.2836 1st Qu.:-0.015155 1st Qu.:0.3899
## Median :0.5554 Median :0.4443 Median : 0.000000 Median :0.5567
## Mean :0.5444 Mean :0.4550 Mean : 0.003401 Mean :0.5447
## 3rd Qu.:0.7161 3rd Qu.:0.6051 3rd Qu.: 0.017940 3rd Qu.:0.7188
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. : 0.318854 Max. :1.0000
## NA's :93 NA's :93 NA's :31 NA's :105
## away_wp_post total_home_rush_wpa total_away_rush_wpa
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :-0.51421 Min. :-0.43487
## 1st Qu.:0.2808 1st Qu.:-0.07343 1st Qu.:-0.11766
## Median :0.4431 Median : 0.00000 Median : 0.00000
## Mean :0.4546 Mean : 0.01762 Mean :-0.01762
## 3rd Qu.:0.6091 3rd Qu.: 0.11766 3rd Qu.: 0.07343
## Max. :1.0000 Max. : 0.43487 Max. : 0.51421
## NA's :105
## total_home_pass_wpa total_away_pass_wpa air_wpa
## Min. :-0.48593 Min. :-0.60405 Min. :-0.5321
## 1st Qu.:-0.11604 1st Qu.:-0.20287 1st Qu.:-0.0160
## Median : 0.05385 Median :-0.05385 Median :-0.0001
## Mean : 0.04597 Mean :-0.04597 Mean : 0.0177
## 3rd Qu.: 0.20287 3rd Qu.: 0.11604 3rd Qu.: 0.0477
## Max. : 0.60405 Max. : 0.48593 Max. : 0.7633
## NA's :1833
## yac_wpa comp_air_wpa comp_yac_wpa
## Min. :-0.7928 Min. :-0.38992 Min. :-0.21842
## 1st Qu.:-0.0104 1st Qu.: 0.00000 1st Qu.: 0.00000
## Median : 0.0000 Median : 0.00000 Median : 0.00000
## Mean :-0.0093 Mean : 0.00197 Mean : 0.00471
## 3rd Qu.: 0.0170 3rd Qu.: 0.00000 3rd Qu.: 0.00000
## Max. : 0.4827 Max. : 0.31885 Max. : 0.34747
## NA's :1834 NA's :86 NA's :86
## total_home_comp_air_wpa total_away_comp_air_wpa total_home_comp_yac_wpa
## Min. :-0.76395 Min. :-0.35408 Min. :-0.29325
## 1st Qu.:-0.09013 1st Qu.:-0.08782 1st Qu.:-0.04313
## Median : 0.00000 Median : 0.00000 Median : 0.01275
## Mean :-0.02736 Mean : 0.02736 Mean : 0.03825
## 3rd Qu.: 0.08782 3rd Qu.: 0.09013 3rd Qu.: 0.12217
## Max. : 0.35408 Max. : 0.76395 Max. : 0.49748
##
## total_away_comp_yac_wpa total_home_raw_air_wpa total_away_raw_air_wpa
## Min. :-0.49748 Min. :-1.16073 Min. :-0.61482
## 1st Qu.:-0.12217 1st Qu.:-0.20309 1st Qu.:-0.18236
## Median :-0.01275 Median :-0.01929 Median : 0.01929
## Mean :-0.03825 Mean :-0.02675 Mean : 0.02675
## 3rd Qu.: 0.04313 3rd Qu.: 0.18236 3rd Qu.: 0.20309
## Max. : 0.29325 Max. : 0.61482 Max. : 1.16073
##
## total_home_raw_yac_wpa total_away_raw_yac_wpa punt_blocked
## Min. :-0.76240 Min. :-1.23987 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:-0.14323 1st Qu.:-0.20186 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median : 0.01269 Median :-0.01269 Median :0.00000
## Mean : 0.04137 Mean :-0.04137 Mean :0.00037
## 3rd Qu.: 0.20186 3rd Qu.: 0.14323 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. : 1.23987 Max. : 0.76240 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85
## first_down_rush first_down_pass first_down_penalty third_down_converted
## Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :0.00000 Median :0.000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0.08284 Mean :0.132 Mean :0.02589 Mean :0.05362
## 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## third_down_failed fourth_down_converted fourth_down_failed
## Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.0000
## 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.0000
## Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.0000
## Mean :0.09098 Mean :0.00629 Mean :0.0037
## 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.0000
## Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.0000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## incomplete_pass touchback interception punt_inside_twenty
## Min. :0.000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:0.000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :0.000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0.118 Mean :0.03621 Mean :0.00703 Mean :0.01886
## 3rd Qu.:0.000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :1.000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## punt_in_endzone punt_out_of_bounds punt_downed punt_fair_catch
## Min. :0 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :0 Median :0.00000 Median :0.0000 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0 Mean :0.00888 Mean :0.0074 Mean :0.01109
## 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.0000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :0 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## kickoff_inside_twenty kickoff_in_endzone kickoff_out_of_bounds
## Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0.00703 Mean :0.00962 Mean :0.00074
## 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## kickoff_downed kickoff_fair_catch fumble_forced fumble_not_forced
## Min. :0 Min. :0 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :0 Median :0 Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0 Mean :0 Mean :0.01146 Mean :0.00481
## 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :0 Max. :0 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## fumble_out_of_bounds solo_tackle safety penalty
## Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :0.00000 Median :0.0000 Median :0 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0.00222 Mean :0.4645 Mean :0 Mean :0.08025
## 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :0 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## tackled_for_loss fumble_lost own_kickoff_recovery
## Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0
## 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0
## Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000 Median :0
## Mean :0.02552 Mean :0.00666 Mean :0
## 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0
## Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :0
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## own_kickoff_recovery_td qb_hit rush_attempt
## Min. :0 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.000
## 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.000
## Median :0 Median :0.00000 Median :0.000
## Mean :0 Mean :0.07286 Mean :0.334
## 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:1.000
## Max. :0 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## pass_attempt sack touchdown pass_touchdown
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :0.0000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0.3953 Mean :0.03476 Mean :0.03365 Mean :0.02256
## 3rd Qu.:1.0000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## rush_touchdown return_touchdown extra_point_attempt two_point_attempt
## Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0.00888 Mean :0.00148 Mean :0.02996 Mean :0.00185
## 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## field_goal_attempt kickoff_attempt punt_attempt fumble
## Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0.02219 Mean :0.05991 Mean :0.05362 Mean :0.01627
## 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## complete_pass assist_tackle lateral_reception lateral_rush
## Min. :0.0000 Min. :0.0000 Min. :0 Min. :0.00000
## 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0.0000 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.:0.00000
## Median :0.0000 Median :0.0000 Median :0 Median :0.00000
## Mean :0.2348 Mean :0.1391 Mean :0 Mean :0.00037
## 3rd Qu.:0.0000 3rd Qu.:0.0000 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :1.0000 Max. :1.0000 Max. :0 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85 NA's :85
## lateral_return lateral_recovery passer_player_id passer_player_name
## Min. :0 Min. :0.00000 Length:2789 Length:2789
## 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.:0.00000 Class :character Class :character
## Median :0 Median :0.00000 Mode :character Mode :character
## Mean :0 Mean :0.00148
## 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.:0.00000
## Max. :0 Max. :1.00000
## NA's :85 NA's :85
## receiver_player_id receiver_player_name rusher_player_id
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## rusher_player_name lateral_receiver_player_id
## Length:2789 Mode:logical
## Class :character NA's:2789
## Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## lateral_receiver_player_name lateral_rusher_player_id
## Mode:logical Length:2789
## NA's:2789 Class :character
## Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## lateral_rusher_player_name lateral_sack_player_id
## Length:2789 Mode:logical
## Class :character NA's:2789
## Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## lateral_sack_player_name interception_player_id interception_player_name
## Mode:logical Length:2789 Length:2789
## NA's:2789 Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## lateral_interception_player_id lateral_interception_player_name
## Mode:logical Mode:logical
## NA's:2789 NA's:2789
##
##
##
##
##
## punt_returner_player_id punt_returner_player_name
## Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## lateral_punt_returner_player_id lateral_punt_returner_player_name
## Mode:logical Mode:logical
## NA's:2789 NA's:2789
##
##
##
##
##
## kickoff_returner_player_name kickoff_returner_player_id
## Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## lateral_kickoff_returner_player_id lateral_kickoff_returner_player_name
## Mode:logical Mode:logical
## NA's:2789 NA's:2789
##
##
##
##
##
## punter_player_id punter_player_name kicker_player_name
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## kicker_player_id own_kickoff_recovery_player_id
## Length:2789 Mode:logical
## Class :character NA's:2789
## Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## own_kickoff_recovery_player_name blocked_player_id blocked_player_name
## Mode:logical Length:2789 Length:2789
## NA's:2789 Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## tackle_for_loss_1_player_id tackle_for_loss_1_player_name
## Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## tackle_for_loss_2_player_id tackle_for_loss_2_player_name
## Mode:logical Mode:logical
## NA's:2789 NA's:2789
##
##
##
##
##
## qb_hit_1_player_id qb_hit_1_player_name qb_hit_2_player_id
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## qb_hit_2_player_name forced_fumble_player_1_team
## Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## forced_fumble_player_1_player_id forced_fumble_player_1_player_name
## Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## forced_fumble_player_2_team forced_fumble_player_2_player_id
## Mode:logical Mode:logical
## NA's:2789 NA's:2789
##
##
##
##
##
## forced_fumble_player_2_player_name solo_tackle_1_team solo_tackle_2_team
## Mode:logical Length:2789 Length:2789
## NA's:2789 Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## solo_tackle_1_player_id solo_tackle_2_player_id solo_tackle_1_player_name
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## solo_tackle_2_player_name assist_tackle_1_player_id
## Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## assist_tackle_1_player_name assist_tackle_1_team
## Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## assist_tackle_2_player_id assist_tackle_2_player_name
## Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## assist_tackle_2_team assist_tackle_3_player_id
## Length:2789 Mode:logical
## Class :character NA's:2789
## Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## assist_tackle_3_player_name assist_tackle_3_team
## Mode:logical Mode:logical
## NA's:2789 NA's:2789
##
##
##
##
##
## assist_tackle_4_player_id assist_tackle_4_player_name
## Mode:logical Mode:logical
## NA's:2789 NA's:2789
##
##
##
##
##
## assist_tackle_4_team pass_defense_1_player_id pass_defense_1_player_name
## Mode:logical Length:2789 Length:2789
## NA's:2789 Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## pass_defense_2_player_id pass_defense_2_player_name fumbled_1_team
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## fumbled_1_player_id fumbled_1_player_name fumbled_2_player_id
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Mode:logical
## Class :character Class :character NA's:2789
## Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## fumbled_2_player_name fumbled_2_team fumble_recovery_1_team
## Mode:logical Mode:logical Length:2789
## NA's:2789 NA's:2789 Class :character
## Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## fumble_recovery_1_yards fumble_recovery_1_player_id
## Min. : 0.000 Length:2789
## 1st Qu.: 0.000 Class :character
## Median : 0.000 Mode :character
## Mean : 1.105
## 3rd Qu.: 0.000
## Max. :29.000
## NA's :2751
## fumble_recovery_1_player_name fumble_recovery_2_team
## Length:2789 Mode:logical
## Class :character NA's:2789
## Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## fumble_recovery_2_yards fumble_recovery_2_player_id
## Mode:logical Mode:logical
## NA's:2789 NA's:2789
##
##
##
##
##
## fumble_recovery_2_player_name return_team return_yards
## Mode:logical Length:2789 Min. :-6.0000
## NA's:2789 Class :character 1st Qu.: 0.0000
## Mode :character Median : 0.0000
## Mean : 0.8483
## 3rd Qu.: 0.0000
## Max. :98.0000
##
## penalty_team penalty_player_id penalty_player_name
## Length:2789 Length:2789 Length:2789
## Class :character Class :character Class :character
## Mode :character Mode :character Mode :character
##
##
##
##
## penalty_yards replay_or_challenge replay_or_challenge_result
## Min. : 0.000 Min. :0.000000 Length:2789
## 1st Qu.: 5.000 1st Qu.:0.000000 Class :character
## Median : 5.000 Median :0.000000 Mode :character
## Mean : 8.871 Mean :0.006812
## 3rd Qu.:10.000 3rd Qu.:0.000000
## Max. :56.000 Max. :1.000000
## NA's :2572
## penalty_type defensive_two_point_attempt defensive_two_point_conv
## Length:2789 Min. :0.00000 Min. :0
## Class :character 1st Qu.:0.00000 1st Qu.:0
## Mode :character Median :0.00000 Median :0
## Mean :0.00037 Mean :0
## 3rd Qu.:0.00000 3rd Qu.:0
## Max. :1.00000 Max. :0
## NA's :85 NA's :85
## defensive_extra_point_attempt defensive_extra_point_conv
## Min. :0 Min. :0
## 1st Qu.:0 1st Qu.:0
## Median :0 Median :0
## Mean :0 Mean :0
## 3rd Qu.:0 3rd Qu.:0
## Max. :0 Max. :0
## NA's :85 NA's :85
Cleaning and Preparation
Describe the steps you took to get from your original dataset to the final dataset you used for your analysis. Include the R code in chunks.
This dataset contains many variables, and we are only interested in ones relating to passing. Using dplyr tools the data is trimmed down from 256 variables to 118 variables.
This dataset contains data for every play the Seahawks had on offense, defense, and special teams, to select only the data related to Russell Wilson, the dataset is filtered to select data where the passer player name column is equal to R. Wilson. Along with removing plays that happened when the win probability was very low or high that happened in, “garbage time.” This is done to make the data a better representation of the true passing game throughout the season.
This data is already fairly clean but, the quarter value is stored as an integer but is really a factor. I also cut the air yard column and the yard line column into groups to be used later.
I will mainly be using expected points per attempt to judge effectiveness, which is stored as “epa” in this dataset.
## ── Attaching packages ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse 1.2.1 ──
## ✔ ggplot2 3.1.0 ✔ purrr 0.3.2
## ✔ tibble 2.1.1 ✔ dplyr 0.8.0.1
## ✔ tidyr 0.8.3 ✔ stringr 1.4.0
## ✔ ggplot2 3.1.0 ✔ forcats 0.4.0
## ── Conflicts ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────── tidyverse_conflicts() ──
## ✖ dplyr::filter() masks stats::filter()
## ✖ dplyr::lag() masks stats::lag()
## Please visit openintro.org for free statistics materials
##
## Attaching package: 'openintro'
## The following object is masked from 'package:ggplot2':
##
## diamonds
## The following objects are masked from 'package:datasets':
##
## cars, trees
wilson <- sea1 %>%
filter(passer_player_name == "R.Wilson" & wp > 0.1 & wp < 0.9) %>%
select(-(punt_returner_player_id:defensive_extra_point_conv), -contains('td_team'), -contains('timeout'), -contains('interception_player'), -contains('fumble'),-contains('result'), -contains('run'), -contains('rush'), -contains('punt'), -contains('tackle'), -contains('kick'), -contains('rusher'), -contains('lateral'))
wilson$qtr <- as.factor(wilson$qtr)
wilson$airyardgroup <- cut(x = wilson$air_yards, breaks = c(-15,-5,0,10,20,30,40,60))
wilson$yardlinegroup <- cut(x = wilson$yardline_100, breaks = c(100,80,60,40,20,0))
str(wilson)
## Classes 'tbl_df', 'tbl' and 'data.frame': 392 obs. of 120 variables:
## $ play_id : chr "244" "263" "413" "728" ...
## $ game_id : chr "2018090911" "2018090911" "2018090911" "2018090911" ...
## $ home_team : chr "DEN" "DEN" "DEN" "DEN" ...
## $ away_team : chr "SEA" "SEA" "SEA" "SEA" ...
## $ posteam : chr "SEA" "SEA" "SEA" "SEA" ...
## $ posteam_type : chr "away" "away" "away" "away" ...
## $ defteam : chr "DEN" "DEN" "DEN" "DEN" ...
## $ side_of_field : chr "SEA" "SEA" "DEN" "SEA" ...
## $ yardline_100 : num 84 90 15 61 71 7 17 90 84 74 ...
## $ game_date : Date, format: "2018-09-09" "2018-09-09" ...
## $ quarter_seconds_remaining: num 731 687 550 286 13 860 848 577 538 494 ...
## $ half_seconds_remaining : num 1631 1587 1450 1186 913 ...
## $ game_seconds_remaining : num 3431 3387 3250 2986 2713 ...
## $ game_half : chr "Half1" "Half1" "Half1" "Half1" ...
## $ quarter_end : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ drive : int 2 2 4 6 8 8 8 10 10 10 ...
## $ sp : num 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ qtr : Factor w/ 5 levels "1","2","3","4",..: 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 ...
## $ down : Factor w/ 4 levels "1","2","3","4": 1 2 1 3 1 2 3 1 2 3 ...
## $ goal_to_go : num 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 ...
## $ time : chr "12:11" "11:27" "09:10" "04:46" ...
## $ yrdln : chr "SEA 16" "SEA 10" "DEN 15" "SEA 39" ...
## $ ydstogo : num 10 16 10 3 10 7 17 25 19 9 ...
## $ ydsnet : num 4 4 15 7 78 78 78 1 1 1 ...
## $ desc : chr "(12:11) R.Wilson sacked at SEA 10 for -6 yards (sack split by D.Stewart and B.Chubb)." "(11:27) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to W.Dissly." "(9:10) R.Wilson pass short left to W.Dissly for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN." "(4:46) (Shotgun) R.Wilson pass incomplete short left to T.Lockett (A.Gotsis)." ...
## $ play_type : chr "pass" "pass" "pass" "pass" ...
## $ yards_gained : num -6 0 15 0 66 0 0 6 10 0 ...
## $ shotgun : num 0 1 0 1 0 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ no_huddle : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ qb_dropback : num 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 ...
## $ qb_kneel : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ qb_spike : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ qb_scramble : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ pass_length : chr NA "deep" "short" "short" ...
## $ pass_location : chr NA "right" "left" "left" ...
## $ air_yards : num NA 20 10 3 15 7 4 5 1 14 ...
## $ yards_after_catch : num NA NA 5 NA 51 NA NA 1 9 NA ...
## $ total_home_score : num 0 0 0 7 7 7 7 14 14 14 ...
## $ total_away_score : num 0 0 6 7 7 7 7 10 10 10 ...
## $ posteam_score : num 0 0 0 7 7 7 7 10 10 10 ...
## $ defteam_score : num 0 0 0 7 7 7 7 14 14 14 ...
## $ score_differential : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -4 ...
## $ posteam_score_post : num 0 0 6 7 7 7 7 10 10 10 ...
## $ defteam_score_post : num 0 0 0 7 7 7 7 14 14 14 ...
## $ score_differential_post : num 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 -4 -4 -4 ...
## $ no_score_prob : num 0.00318 0.00399 0.00107 0.01294 0.04296 ...
## $ opp_fg_prob : num 0.1922 0.2444 0.0279 0.1477 0.1378 ...
## $ opp_safety_prob : num 9.02e-03 1.64e-02 2.02e-05 2.34e-03 2.92e-03 ...
## $ opp_td_prob : num 0.2989 0.3825 0.0427 0.2223 0.2081 ...
## $ fg_prob : num 0.199 0.147 0.386 0.242 0.243 ...
## $ safety_prob : num 0.00349 0.00356 0.00257 0.00378 0.00339 ...
## $ td_prob : num 0.294 0.202 0.54 0.369 0.362 ...
## $ extra_point_prob : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ two_point_conversion_prob: num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ ep : num -0.0225 -1.5811 4.5599 1.3115 1.3947 ...
## $ epa : num -1.559 -0.873 2.44 -2.014 4.309 ...
## $ total_home_epa : num 0.7661 1.6393 -7.815 -0.0665 -6.4727 ...
## $ total_away_epa : num -0.7661 -1.6393 7.815 0.0665 6.4727 ...
## $ total_home_pass_epa : num 1.24722 2.12042 -4.33208 3.99559 -0.00273 ...
## $ total_away_pass_epa : num -1.24722 -2.12042 4.33208 -3.99559 0.00273 ...
## $ air_epa : num NA 2.665 0.596 1.834 1.231 ...
## $ yac_epa : num NA -3.54 1.84 -3.85 3.08 ...
## $ comp_air_epa : num 0 0 0.596 0 1.231 ...
## $ comp_yac_epa : num 0 0 1.84 0 3.08 ...
## $ total_home_comp_air_epa : num 3.28 3.28 2.6 2.684 0.401 ...
## $ total_away_comp_air_epa : num -3.28 -3.28 -2.6 -2.684 -0.401 ...
## $ total_home_comp_yac_epa : num 0 0 -0.396 6.383 7.412 ...
## $ total_away_comp_yac_epa : num 0 0 0.396 -6.383 -7.412 ...
## $ total_home_raw_air_epa : num 6.04 3.38 4.14 2.9 1.52 ...
## $ total_away_raw_air_epa : num -6.04 -3.38 -4.14 -2.9 -1.52 ...
## $ total_home_raw_yac_epa : num -6.352 -2.814 -10.026 -0.467 -3.086 ...
## $ total_away_raw_yac_epa : num 6.352 2.814 10.026 0.467 3.086 ...
## $ wp : num 0.484 0.44 0.634 0.532 0.514 ...
## $ def_wp : num 0.516 0.56 0.366 0.468 0.486 ...
## $ home_wp : num 0.516 0.56 0.366 0.468 0.486 ...
## $ away_wp : num 0.484 0.44 0.634 0.532 0.514 ...
## $ wpa : num -0.0446 -0.0267 0.0822 -0.0599 0.1461 ...
## $ home_wp_post : num 0.56 0.587 0.283 0.528 0.34 ...
## $ away_wp_post : num 0.44 0.413 0.717 0.472 0.66 ...
## $ total_home_pass_wpa : num 0.0383 0.0651 -0.1248 0.1388 -0.006 ...
## $ total_away_pass_wpa : num -0.0383 -0.0651 0.1248 -0.1388 0.006 ...
## $ air_wpa : num NA 0.0787 0.021 0.0574 0.0386 ...
## $ yac_wpa : num NA -0.1055 0.0612 -0.1173 0.1075 ...
## $ comp_air_wpa : num 0 0 0.021 0 0.0386 ...
## $ comp_yac_wpa : num 0 0 0.0612 0 0.1075 ...
## $ total_home_comp_air_wpa : num 0.09812 0.09812 0.07477 0.07822 0.00672 ...
## $ total_away_comp_air_wpa : num -0.09812 -0.09812 -0.07477 -0.07822 -0.00672 ...
## $ total_home_comp_yac_wpa : num 0 0 -0.018 0.201 0.211 ...
## $ total_away_comp_yac_wpa : num 0 0 0.018 -0.201 -0.211 ...
## $ total_home_raw_air_wpa : num 0.1852 0.1065 0.1269 0.0902 0.0551 ...
## $ total_away_raw_air_wpa : num -0.1852 -0.1065 -0.1269 -0.0902 -0.0551 ...
## $ total_home_raw_yac_wpa : num -0.19153 -0.08604 -0.29625 0.00401 -0.1057 ...
## $ total_away_raw_yac_wpa : num 0.19153 0.08604 0.29625 -0.00401 0.1057 ...
## $ first_down_pass : num 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ first_down_penalty : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ third_down_converted : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ third_down_failed : num 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 0 0 1 ...
## $ fourth_down_converted : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## $ fourth_down_failed : num 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ...
## [list output truncated]
Final Results
Show how you approached the questions you posed at the beginning. Describe how much you were able to accomplish. There should be both graphical and numerical results produced by R code included in chunks. Explain what you did and what it means.
I started to answer my question of what are the best conditions for passing with time.
Wilson tends to throw about the same depth for the first three quarters, but during the fourth quarter his average depth of target takes a large increase. I removed the fifth quarter because it only has a sample size of one.
Wilson starts both the first and second half weak but as games went on Wilson steadily improved. He starts off the first quarter weak but improves throughout the quarter and maintains his improvement during the second quarter. The start of the third quarter is where he is weakest but quickly improves as the quarter goes on and carries that momentum into the fourth quarter.
## Warning: Removed 75 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).
## Warning: Removed 75 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
Pass Location
Looking at the location of pass attempts, as Wilson threw further down the field, his expected points per play increase. It is noticeable that the Seahawks did not have success with passes behind the line of scrimmage, which are mostly screen plays, during the season.
## `geom_smooth()` using method = 'loess' and formula 'y ~ x'
## Warning: Removed 42 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).
## Warning: Removed 42 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
Wilson was far more effective throwing to the middle of the field, and was throwing to the left and right side of the field with about equal effectiveness. However, he throws to the middle of the field the least amount. This high epa does not appear to be from throwing the ball deep down the field as a majority of Wilson’s attempts were between -5 and 10 yards when throwing to the middle of the field.
Completion Percentage
This code calculates the completion percentage for each air yard group. This is done by making a dataframe for each group, dividing the number of completed passes with the total number of rows. They are then all row binded together again and then the distinct values are selected to show the percentage of each group.
completetionpercent1 <- wilson %>%
filter(airyardgroup =="(-15,-5]") %>%
mutate(completionpct = sum(complete_pass)/nrow(.))
completetionpercent2 <- wilson %>%
filter(airyardgroup =="(-5,0]") %>%
mutate(completionpct = sum(complete_pass)/nrow(.))
completetionpercent3 <- wilson %>%
filter(airyardgroup =="(0,10]") %>%
mutate(completionpct = sum(complete_pass)/nrow(.))
completetionpercent4 <- wilson %>%
filter(airyardgroup =="(10,20]") %>%
mutate(completionpct = sum(complete_pass)/nrow(.))
completetionpercent5 <- wilson %>%
filter(airyardgroup =="(20,30]") %>%
mutate(completionpct = sum(complete_pass)/nrow(.))
completetionpercent6 <- wilson %>%
filter(airyardgroup =="(30,40]") %>%
mutate(completionpct = sum(complete_pass)/nrow(.))
completetionpercent7 <- wilson %>%
filter(airyardgroup =="(40,60]") %>%
mutate(completionpct = sum(complete_pass)/nrow(.))
allcompletionperct <- rbind(completetionpercent1, completetionpercent2, completetionpercent3, completetionpercent4, completetionpercent5, completetionpercent6, completetionpercent7)
allcompletionperctshow <- allcompletionperct %>%
distinct(airyardgroup, completionpct)
allcompletionperctshow
## # A tibble: 7 x 2
## airyardgroup completionpct
## <fct> <dbl>
## 1 (-15,-5] 0.857
## 2 (-5,0] 0.736
## 3 (0,10] 0.715
## 4 (10,20] 0.6
## 5 (20,30] 0.361
## 6 (30,40] 0.5
## 7 (40,60] 0.8
I filtered out sacks and spikes to remove na values in the geom_bar.
The -15, -5 group has a low epa average and low sum epa but a high completion percentage, this makes sense because passes completed that far behind the line of scrimmage are usually done when something goes wrong and a desperate pass is needed to anyone that’s open. The 0-10 group has by far the most passes but a sum epa similar to the other higher groups that had many fewer targets except the 10-20 group. Wilson only had a 36% completion rate in the 20-30 group but that group still had a higher sum epa than 0-10 group despite having a 72% completion rate. Which shows how much more effective a higher depth of target is. It’s also interesting that the -5, 0 had a slightly lower average epa and a slightly higher completion percentage than the 0, 10 group, but 0, 10 had many more targets. This shows that the -5, 0 group could be an area to pass more in instead of 0, 10 because throwing shorter is usually safer and there is little passing efficiency lost. Wilson also completed an extremely high 80% of his targets in the 40-60 group and 50% of his targets in the 30-40 group. These two groups had very little targets but were a large chunk of the total epa earned from passing this season.
Yard Line Location
Looking at only touchdown passes, there seems to be a couple of good spots for Wilson, between goal and 8 yardline, 10 and 22 yardline, and the 45 and 55 yardline.
With all plays, as they happen closer to the goal their average epa steadily increases.
Downs
I removed fourth down here because it had a small sample size of only 3. On downs, Wilson threw slightly farther on first down than second down. This is likely because on first down you can take a risk since you still have two downs if the throw is unsuccessful On second down, you have less margin for air and usually want to take a safer throw. On third down, however there is a large jump of a couple of yards, which shows that Wilson was willing to take risks on third down. The average epa went up on each down, the highest epa on third down is likely due to his much increased average air yards on that down. The increase from first to second down isn’t as clear, I suspect it may be from it being easier to get a first down pass from the yards gained on the previous down.
wilsonpasslengthsdown <- wilson %>%
group_by(down) %>%
filter(sack == 0 & qb_spike==0 & down != 4) %>%
summarize(avgairyards=mean(air_yards), avgyardstogo=mean(ydstogo))
ggplot(wilsonpasslengthsdown, aes(x=down, group=2))+ geom_line(aes(y = avgairyards, colour = "green")) +geom_line(aes(y = avgyardstogo, colour = "blue"))+ labs(y="Yards", x="Down") + scale_color_manual(name = "Legend", labels = c("Average Yards to go", "Average Air Yards"), values = c("green", "blue"))
Wide Receivers
Now to look at wide receivers on the Seahawks. The recievers with the most targets were Tyler Lockett and Doug Baldwin. Which were also the first and third highest average epa. Jaron Brown had the least targets for someone that played in all the games this season but the second highest average epa. Tyler Lockett was by far the most effective receiver, with the most targets and averaged 1.2 epa per target. It also appears that the running backs were among the least effective when used as receivers
Wide Receivers and Time
For these plots I filtered to include only receivers with at least 30 targets to make the visual more clear and accurate. We see that most receivers did not have much of a change to there depth of target except for Tyler Lockett and Nick Vannett. Tyler Lockett’s depth of target rose steadily as the games got closer to ending. While Nick Vannett’s depth of target dropped as the game got closer to ending. Looking at epa, Lockett again proves to be the most effective as the game gets on. Also interesting that David Moore epa increased heavily as the game went on despite starting in negative epa.
## Warning: Removed 45 rows containing non-finite values (stat_smooth).
## Warning: Removed 45 rows containing missing values (geom_point).
Model
Here I took most of the variables I’ve been investigating and put them in a linear regression model to see their significance. For the data set I removed na values in pass location and receiver player name to allow me to bind it with the prediction later because the lm function automatically removed those variable when making the model.
It appears that receiver player name, pass location, and game time were not that significant in determining epa. However yard line position, air yards, and completed pass were very significant. Only third down was significant in determining epa.
##
## Call:
## lm(formula = epa ~ game_seconds_remaining + yardline_100 + air_yards +
## receiver_player_name + pass_location + complete_pass + down,
## data = wilson)
##
## Residuals:
## Min 1Q Median 3Q Max
## -6.5188 -0.5927 0.0065 0.5838 3.2507
##
## Coefficients:
## Estimate Std. Error t value Pr(>|t|)
## (Intercept) -2.114e+00 3.904e-01 -5.415 1.25e-07 ***
## game_seconds_remaining 6.372e-05 7.075e-05 0.901 0.36848
## yardline_100 -8.693e-03 2.960e-03 -2.936 0.00357 **
## air_yards 7.270e-02 7.156e-03 10.160 < 2e-16 ***
## receiver_player_nameC.Carson 2.553e-01 3.812e-01 0.670 0.50365
## receiver_player_nameD.Baldwin 8.392e-02 2.965e-01 0.283 0.77733
## receiver_player_nameD.Daniels 1.913e-01 1.206e+00 0.159 0.87408
## receiver_player_nameD.Moore 9.432e-03 3.053e-01 0.031 0.97537
## receiver_player_nameE.Dickson 3.591e-01 4.639e-01 0.774 0.43940
## receiver_player_nameG.Fant 1.085e+00 1.199e+00 0.905 0.36621
## receiver_player_nameJ.Brown 2.797e-01 4.109e-01 0.681 0.49666
## receiver_player_nameM.Davis -9.495e-02 3.339e-01 -0.284 0.77633
## receiver_player_nameM.Turner 9.953e-01 8.632e-01 1.153 0.24979
## receiver_player_nameN.Vannett 2.333e-01 3.255e-01 0.717 0.47410
## receiver_player_nameR.Penny -3.825e-01 4.579e-01 -0.835 0.40422
## receiver_player_nameR.Wilson -2.605e+00 1.210e+00 -2.153 0.03213 *
## receiver_player_nameT.Lockett 1.742e-01 3.015e-01 0.578 0.56386
## receiver_player_nameT.Madden 1.091e+00 7.306e-01 1.493 0.13658
## receiver_player_nameT.Swoopes 1.467e+00 1.201e+00 1.221 0.22303
## receiver_player_nameW.Dissly 5.011e-01 4.262e-01 1.176 0.24060
## pass_locationmiddle 1.451e-01 1.936e-01 0.749 0.45423
## pass_locationright -1.608e-02 1.493e-01 -0.108 0.91435
## complete_pass 2.656e+00 1.553e-01 17.099 < 2e-16 ***
## down2 1.436e-01 1.642e-01 0.875 0.38240
## down3 3.884e-01 1.712e-01 2.268 0.02401 *
## down4 4.987e-01 8.485e-01 0.588 0.55712
## ---
## Signif. codes: 0 '***' 0.001 '**' 0.01 '*' 0.05 '.' 0.1 ' ' 1
##
## Residual standard error: 1.158 on 302 degrees of freedom
## (64 observations deleted due to missingness)
## Multiple R-squared: 0.5893, Adjusted R-squared: 0.5553
## F-statistic: 17.33 on 25 and 302 DF, p-value: < 2.2e-16
## epa pred res
## 1 -0.8732052 -0.5979378 -0.2752673
## 2 2.4400943 1.8465116 0.5935827
## 3 -2.0138411 -1.6733902 -0.3404509
## 4 4.3091475 1.8340845 2.4750630
## 5 -0.7384247 -1.2850897 0.5466650
## 6 -1.0530692 -1.2688625 0.2157933
Summary
The best conditions for Wilson to pass are to be at the end of the game, on third down, targeting the middle of the field, with a depth of target of at least 30 yards.
Tyler Lockett was clearly the most effective wide receiver for the season, with Doug Baldwin being the second best. While Jaron Brown had the second highest average epa, he had very few targets which makes his case for second best not as strong as Baldwin’s as Baldwin had a much higher number of targets. Nick Vannett was effective during the beginning of games but was ineffective towards the end of games, where points are needed the most. Vannett’s air yardage drops as the game goes on as well so his ineffectiveness towards the end of games could be a scheme choice with him being asked to block more or run shorter routes.
Two takeaways I also found is that there is a clear relationship between depth of throw and epa, and that passing between -5 and 10 yards was not very effective for Seahawks.
I think I was able to accomplish a good investigation of the passing game during the 2018 season using a variety of graphing and data manipulation skills. I was able to look at a variety of focused areas that make up the passing game and find the best conditions of each. I would like to investigate more in yard line position, completion percentages, and air yards because they were what I discovered to be the most significant variables.